KMFL [300222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 300222
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 PM HEAVY RAIN BOYNTON BEACH 26.53N 80.09W
08/29/2010 M5.77 INCH PALM BEACH FL BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA RELAYS REPORT OF 5.77 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY IN
BOYNTON BEACH BETWEEN JOG AND MILITARY TRAIL ALONG
GATEWAY BLVD.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 632

WWUS20 KWNS 300203
SEL2
SPC WW 300203
AZZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632 ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA

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KMFL [300203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 300203
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM FLASH FLOOD BOYNTON BEACH 26.53N 80.09W
08/29/2010 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE PALM BEACH COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED FLOODING
ALONG S MILITARY TRAIL BETWEEN HYPOLUXO RD AND BOYNTON
BEACH BLVD WITH THE ROAD IMPASSABLE AT THE LE CHALET BLVD
INTERSECTION.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KPSR [300145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 300145
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
645 PM MST SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM TSTM WND DMG CLAYPOOL 33.43N 110.83W
08/29/2010 GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

MARQUEE SIGN AT PIZZA SHOP TORN OFF.

&&

$$

SSIPPLE

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KUNR [300130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 300130
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
730 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW CAMP CROOK 45.48N 104.03W
08/29/2010 E60 MPH HARDING SD PUBLIC

LOTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KMFL [300117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 300117
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
917 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 PM HEAVY RAIN BOYNTON BEACH 26.53N 80.09W
08/29/2010 M2.00 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER IN WESTERN BOYNTON BEACH RECORDED 2 INCHES
OF RAIN IN JUST THE PAST 25 MINUTES.

&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300102
SWODY1
SPC AC 300100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTING THE BASAL/BRUNT OF THE WESTERN
STATES TROUGH NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CA/SOUTHERN NV
EARLY THIS EVENING...ONGOING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS AZ MAY POSE A
SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL RISK PRIMARILY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE OBSERVED RAOB TRENDS REFLECT MARKEDLY STRONGER MID/HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FROM EARLIER TODAY...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND OTHERWISE
A NOCTURNALLY DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...PRIOR TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...A WELL
MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /REFERENCE 00Z GRAND JUNCTION
OBSERVED RAOB/ WILL SUPPORT SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO
INTO WY.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE/SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SURFACE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2010

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KABQ [300054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 300054
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
653 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N QUAY 34.96N 103.76W
08/29/2010 QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

LOW WATER CROSSING ALONG QUAY ROAD 49 WAS FLOODED. ROAD
WAS IMPASSIBLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002146

$$

JLP

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KPIH [300043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 300043
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
643 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM HAIL 6 WSW DRIGGS 43.70N 111.22W
08/29/2010 E0.50 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH HAIL

&&

$$

DPHELPS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1755

ACUS11 KWNS 292243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292243
AZZ000-300015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...

VALID 292243Z - 300015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST.

AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS OVER
SERN AZ SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND UPPER 50S MEAN
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION BUT DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ZONE OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF SRN THROUGH ERN AZ WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE
18Z RAOB DATA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SOURCE FOR DEEPER
MESOSCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENTRAINMENT. NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31451102 32581164 33831144 34321061 34140962 33220912
31650909 31451102

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KBYZ [292235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 292235
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
435 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.84N 108.45W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL 4 ENE BILLINGS 45.82N 108.47W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0359 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

RYANL

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KBYZ [292217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 292217
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
417 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 2 NNE BILLINGS 45.82N 108.52W
08/29/2010 E1.25 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.50 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RYANL

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KBYZ [292203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 292203
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
403 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

BROKEN CAR WINDOWS ON 27TH AND 6TH DOWNTOWN

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

LOCATED IN THE BILLINGS HEIGHTS - POSSIBLE CAR DAMAGE

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS HEIGHTS

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS HEIGHTS

&&

$$

ARTHUR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754

ACUS11 KWNS 292157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292157
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MT...SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292157Z - 292330Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF HAIL SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN A LOWER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SRN MT INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

21Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A PAIR OF CYCLONES ACROSS
SWRN MT /S OF BZN/ AND OVER CNTRL SD /INVOF PIR AND MBG/. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES OVER
WRN SD AND FAR NRN WY. A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL MT LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE AND SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS TROUGH. PERSISTENT LOWER-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ATOP WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUING TO SHIFT E/NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 18Z
GFS/NAM GUIDANCE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG /AROUND 40-50
KT/...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY NARROW WSW TO ENE CORRIDOR ACROSS SRN MT INTO SWRN
ND...SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK HOLDING OVER MUCH OF NERN
MT/NWRN ND.

..GRAMS.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON 45430979 46060937 46210789 46500593 46590578 47100421
47120311 46570282 45990320 45360410 45010545 44920673
44920809 45430979

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KSLC [292059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 292059
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
259 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N MILFORD 38.42N 113.01W
08/29/2010 M58 MPH BEAVER UT ASOS

MILFORD ASOS

&&

$$

CRK

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KGJT [292045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 292045
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
245 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1259 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CRAIG 40.52N 107.55W
08/29/2010 M46 MPH MOFFAT CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000671

$$

MCS

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KGJT [292019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 292019
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
218 PM MDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.55W
08/29/2010 M46 MPH MESA CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000670

$$

MCS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291953
SWODY1
SPC AC 291952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AZ NWD THROUGH
ERN UT/WRN CO...

...SRN MT AREA...
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN WY. NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE SURFACE AIR
MASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...RESULTING IN
MLCAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. SLY WINDS STREAMING NWD OVER THE
FRONT AND JET MAX SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SSW SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR STORMS IN NWRN WY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP
ENEWD THROUGH SRN MT...AND POSSIBLY WRN ND...THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. COVERAGE OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED ATTM.

...AZ NEWD INTO ERN UT/WRN CO...
CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SOME OF THE CU HAVE EVOLVED INTO THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING AND APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...REFERENCE MCD 1753 AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #632.

...SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION...THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF LFT ON SAT...
SHIFTED NWD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
APPEARED TO BE LOCATED NEAR SHV. THOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR
LA/MS COAST...WIND PROFILES HAVE WEAKENED AND THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..IMY.. 08/29/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS ADDITIONAL SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SE INTO WRN U.S. TROUGH...AND LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. VORT MAX NOW NEARING BASE OF
TROUGH IN CA SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SRN NV LATER
TODAY...AND INTO UT/NRN AZ EARLY MON...MAINTAINING BELT OF
SEASONABLY FAST SSWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE LWR CO VLY TO THE
ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS.

SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH LIKELY WILL EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL GULF OF CA MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED NWD THRU AZ INTO ERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TO E
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...AZ...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD THRU THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF AZ WITH A SHARP WRN GRADIENT...SIMILAR TO A DRY LINE... EXTENDING
FROM FAR WRN PIMA/MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTIES NWD INTO SRN UT.

WITH 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET
ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT CONTINUES ESEWD...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. CINH SHOULD
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 21Z ...AS MLCAPES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS CLIMB
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DRY LINE
EWD...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND PROFILES...STORMS WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE ADJACENT DESERT
VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE WITH THE RISK OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FUNNELS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. WITH 35-40 KT OF SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK NWD THRU THIS AREA GIVEN THE CONTINUED
INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM AZ.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
ENHANCED LOW LVL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON N SIDE OF GULF CST
DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STORMS WITH WEAK/INTERMITTENT LOW
LVL ROTATION THIS MORNING. GIVEN VERY RICH MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS
REGION...AND LIKELY NWD ADVANCE OF SHEAR ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS WITH
CONTINUED NWD MOTION OF UPR VORT...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER PARTS
OF LA...MS...AND AL. THE STRONGEST SHEAR/FLOW
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF GREATEST
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE UPR SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT IS
DRAWN NWD ON W SIDE OF MID ATLANTIC RIDGE. THUS...ANY SVR RISK
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/MINIMAL.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 632

WWUS20 KWNS 291948
SEL2
SPC WW 291948
AZZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SHOW LOW ARIZONA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA VISTA
ARIZONA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WATCH AREA AS THE MDTLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED. WITH 25-30 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS AND MOVE OVER
ADJACENT VALLEYS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1753

ACUS11 KWNS 291913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291913
COZ000-UTZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...UT CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291913Z - 292115Z

SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.

CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND EXPECT PERSISTENT
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

GIVEN 30-40KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD-BEARING/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
30KT SHOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BUT DEEPLY MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CORES.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 37390907 37511002 37821021 38630996 39270953 39810907
40480838 40550775 40030738 39230741 38650787 37730848
37390907

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KCHS [291852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 291852
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
252 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
08/29/2010 CHATHAM GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

LIFEGUARDS REPORT NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NO RESCUES REQUIRED.

&&

$$

RPA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1752

ACUS11 KWNS 291844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291844
AZZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291844Z - 292015Z

CORRECTED TO ADD AZ TO FIRST PARAGRAPH.

THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1751

ACUS11 KWNS 291842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291841
AZZ000-292015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291841Z - 292015Z

THE CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CU FIELD IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AND SERN AZ TODAY AND
ESSENTIALLY CORRESPONDS TO LOW AND MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME OVER THE
STATE. PHOENIX AREA VWP IS INDICATIVE OF A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONGOING LARGER
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET ACROSS NV/UT. THESE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
AND DEEP MIXING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND NEAR WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES AND TERRAIN FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW RANGING FROM 60KT ACROSS THE NORTH TO ABOUT
30KT IN THE SOUTH...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN GIVEN STRENGTH OF CLOUD-BEARING FLOW. NONETHELESS...SOME
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING ACROSS THE AREAS OUTLINED IN
THE MCD GRAPHIC AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34081298 34731296 35061268 35231231 35201170 34531053
33770957 33270932 32670956 32341018 32321076 32501126
32891196 33201237 33591276 34081298

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KJAX [291834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 291834
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM RIP CURRENTS 1 N JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.30N 81.39W
08/28/2010 DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

LIFEGUARDS RESCUED A WOMAN CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT IN
JACKSONVILLE BEACH.

&&

$$

SPRESNALL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291730
SWODY2
SPC AC 291729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND...ERN SD...WRN MN AND
NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL DEAMPLIFY AS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN SHIFT NEWD
INTO ERN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SRN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS.

...ERN SD/ND...WRN MN AND NEB...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WAIT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN LARGE SCALE FORCING AND 60-90 M
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY SLY/SWLY...ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOP... SPEED
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH SOME STORMS DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER... WIND DAMAGE
APPEARS TO THE GREATER THREAT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SPREADING INTO
THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20 KT MIGHT ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO OR TWO...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOWER 250 MB...SUGGESTING DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD BE TOO
STRONG FOR MORE THAN BRIEF EVENTS. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NEWD INTO SRN CANADA.

...WRN KS...
COMBINATION OF MOIST TROPICAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO GENERATE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF KS...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AT 30-35 KT AND MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS. HOWEVER...ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ATTM DUE
TO THE WEAK FORCING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ -6C AT 500 MB.

..IMY.. 08/29/2010

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KPSR [291717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KPSR 291717
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1017 AM MST SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM HAIL 2 SW PHOENIX 33.52N 112.10W
08/28/2010 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL, 45 MPH WIND GUSTS, AND
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE IN PRECIPITATION AT 19TH
AVE AND BETHANY HOME RD.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW PHOENIX 33.57N 112.10W
08/28/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS POWER POLES DOWN AT 19TH AVE AND DUNLAP,
AND DIME SIZE HAIL AT 19TH AVE AND BETHANY HOME RD.

&&

$$

LEINS

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KPSR [291716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 291716
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1016 AM MST SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW GUADALUPE 33.31N 112.06W
08/28/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

7 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH BLOWN DOWN. OTHER LARGE LIMBS
BLOWN DOWN.

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 WSW FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.58N 111.84W
08/28/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN ON SHEA BLVD PARTIALLY
BLOCKING TRAFFIC. MINOR FLOODING ALONG SHEA BLVD BETWEEN
120TH STREET AND 136TH STREET.

&&

$$

LEINS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291624
SWODY1
SPC AC 291623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF AZ NWD THRU ERN UT/WRN
CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS ADDITIONAL SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SE INTO WRN U.S. TROUGH...AND LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. VORT MAX NOW NEARING BASE OF
TROUGH IN CA SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SRN NV LATER
TODAY...AND INTO UT/NRN AZ EARLY MON...MAINTAINING BELT OF
SEASONABLY FAST SSWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE LWR CO VLY TO THE
ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS.

SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH LIKELY WILL EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL GULF OF CA MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED NWD THRU AZ INTO ERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS TO E
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...AZ...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD THRU THE ERN TWO THIRDS
OF AZ WITH A SHARP WRN GRADIENT...SIMILAR TO A DRY LINE... EXTENDING
FROM FAR WRN PIMA/MARICOPA/YAVAPAI COUNTIES NWD INTO SRN UT.

WITH 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET
ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT CONTINUES ESEWD...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. CINH SHOULD
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 21Z ...AS MLCAPES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS CLIMB
ABOVE 1500 J/KG...FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE DRY LINE
EWD...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND PROFILES...STORMS WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE ADJACENT DESERT
VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO WIND DAMAGE WITH THE RISK OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FUNNELS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO COUPLED WITH
STRONG HEATING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG. WITH 35-40 KT OF SHEAR...VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON.

HAVE EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK NWD THRU THIS AREA GIVEN THE CONTINUED
INFLOW OF MOISTURE FROM AZ.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
ENHANCED LOW LVL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON N SIDE OF GULF CST
DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STORMS WITH WEAK/INTERMITTENT LOW
LVL ROTATION THIS MORNING. GIVEN VERY RICH MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS
REGION...AND LIKELY NWD ADVANCE OF SHEAR ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS WITH
CONTINUED NWD MOTION OF UPR VORT...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER PARTS
OF LA...MS...AND AL. THE STRONGEST SHEAR/FLOW
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF GREATEST
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE UPR SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT IS
DRAWN NWD ON W SIDE OF MID ATLANTIC RIDGE. THUS...ANY SVR RISK
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/MINIMAL.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 08/29/2010

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KVEF [291534]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 291534
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
834 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE BULLHEAD CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL
AWNINGS BLEW OFF MOBILE HOMES DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
THE TIME OF THIS EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG N BULLHEAD CITY (BHCA3) 35.16N 114.56W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN BULLHEAD CITY BY WIND
GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.

0827 PM HAIL 5 SSW BULLHEAD CITY 35.08N 114.60W
08/27/2010 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE WAL-MART
PARKING LOT IN BULLHEAD CITY.

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 SW BIG BEND RAWS 35.03N 114.83W
08/27/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

US HWY 95 10 MILES SOUTH OF LAUGHLIN CUT-OFF WASHED OUT.
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0850 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW BULLHEAD CITY 35.12N 114.61W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

THE INTERSECTION OF LAKESIDE AND CLEARWATER WAS FLOODED
OUT, AND OTHER INTERSECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSED SOON.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S BULLHEAD CITY 35.11N 114.57W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ NEWSPAPER

DEBRIS WAS REPORTED ON SILVER CREEK ROAD ON TWO EASTBOUND
LANES RESULTING IN A ROAD CLOSURE. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT
WAS ESTIMATED.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW BULLHEAD CITY 35.09N 114.60W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ NEWSPAPER

WATER AT LEAST A FOOT DEEP RESULTED IN THE SWIFTWATER
RESCUE OF FIVE PEOPLE ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE.

0933 PM HAIL 3 SSE HENDERSON 36.00N 114.98W
08/27/2010 E0.88 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO SPOTTERS IN HENDERSON REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FELL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN 930 AND 935 PM.

1005 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE BOULDER CITY 36.03N 114.77W
08/27/2010 M70.00 MPH CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE PARK SERVICE MEASURED A 70 MPH WIND GUST FROM A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR ON LAKE MEAD
BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER BROKE. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT IS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

1005 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE BOULDER CITY 36.03N 114.77W
08/27/2010 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE REPORTED THUNDERSTORM WINDS
CAUSED AT LEAST 300,000 DOLLARS IN DAMAGES TO FLOATING
DOCKS AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR AND A NEARBY
GOVERNMENT DOCK IN THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION
AREA. A FUEL DOCK WAS ALSO PULLED APART AT THE LAS VEGAS
BOAT HARBOR AND DAMAGED AND THE ABOVE DAMAGE TOTAL
INCLUDES THIS. ADDITIONALLY AT LEAST 2 PRIVATE BOATS WERE
DAMAGED AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR. THE TIME OF THIS
EVENT WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&
THIS IS AN UPDATED LIST OF EVENTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING LATE AND CORRECTED REPORTS.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [291529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 291529
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
829 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG BULLHEAD CITY 35.15N 114.56W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE BULLHEAD CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED SEVERAL
AWNINGS BLEW OFF MOBILE HOMES DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
THE TIME OF THIS EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG N BULLHEAD CITY (BHCA3) 35.16N 114.56W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN BULLHEAD CITY BY WIND
GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.

0827 PM HAIL 5 SSW BULLHEAD CITY 35.08N 114.60W
08/27/2010 E1.00 INCH MOHAVE AZ PUBLIC

ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE WAL-MART
PARKING LOT IN BULLHEAD CITY.

0830 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 SW BIG BEND RAWS 35.03N 114.83W
08/27/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

US HWY 95 10 MILES SOUTH OF LAUGHLIN CUT-OFF WASHED OUT.
TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0850 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW BULLHEAD CITY 35.12N 114.61W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

THE INTERSECTION OF LAKESIDE AND CLEARWATER WAS FLOODED
OUT, AND OTHER INTERSECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSED SOON.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW BULLHEAD CITY 35.09N 114.60W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ NEWSPAPER

WATER AT A LEAST A FOOT DEEP RESULTED IN THE SWIFTWATER
RESCUE OF FIVE PEOPLE ON RIVERVIEW DRIVE.

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S BULLHEAD CITY 35.11N 114.57W
08/27/2010 MOHAVE AZ NEWSPAPER

DEBRIS WAS REPORTED ON SILVER CREEK ROAD ON TWO EASTBOUND
LANES RESULTING IN A ROAD CLOSURE. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT
WAS ESTIMATED.

0933 PM HAIL 3 SSE HENDERSON 36.00N 114.98W
08/27/2010 E0.88 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO SPOTTERS IN HENDERSON REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL FELL FOR A SHORT TIME BETWEEN 930 AND 935 PM.

1005 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE BOULDER CITY 36.03N 114.77W
08/27/2010 M70.00 MPH CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE PARK SERVICE MEASURED A 70 MPH WIND GUST FROM A
THUNDERSTORM AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR ON LAKE MEAD
BEFORE THE ANEMOMETER BROKE. THE TIME OF THIS EVENT IS
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

1005 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE BOULDER CITY 36.03N 114.77W
08/27/2010 CLARK NV PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE REPORTED THUNDERSTORM WINDS
CAUSED AT LEAST 300,000 DOLLARS IN DAMAGES TO FLOATING
DOCKS AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR AND A NEARBY
GOVERNMENT DOCK IN THE LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION
AREA. A FUEL DOCK WAS ALSO PULLED APART AT THE LAS VEGAS
BOAT HARBOR AND DAMAGED AND THE ABOVE DAMAGE TOTAL
INCLUDES THIS. ADDITIONALLY AT LEAST 2 PRIVATE BOATS WERE
DAMAGED AT THE LAS VEGAS BOAT HARBOR. THE TIME OF THIS
EVENT WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&
THIS IS AN UPDATED LIST OF EVENTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT'S THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND INCLUDES LATE AND CORRECTED REPORTS.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KLCH [291327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 291327
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W ALEXANDRIA 31.29N 92.55W
08/29/2010 RAPIDES LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

RAPIDES SHERIFF REPORTS WATER COVERING ROADWAYS AND
ENTERING RESIDENTIAL HOMES WEST OF ALEXANDRIA NEAR BAYOU
RAPIDES AND SCHOOLHOUSE ROADS. 2.83 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
IN A ONE HOUR PERIOD AT THE ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT WITH A
FOUR HOUR TOTAL OF 5.28 INCHES.

&&

$$

DJONES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291258
SWODY1
SPC AC 291257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH EARLY MON AS ADDITIONAL SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SE INTO WRN U.S. TROUGH...AND RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. VORT MAX NOW NEARING BASE OF TROUGH IN CA
SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SRN NV LATER TODAY...AND INTO
UT/NRN AZ EARLY MON...MAINTAINING BELT OF SEASONABLY FAST SSWLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE LWR CO VLY TO THE ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST.

SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH LIKELY WILL EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST...DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF RICH/DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SLOWLY-MOVING UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE N ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS/AL.

...AZ...
SATELLITE...SFC...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ
TODAY...BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD THIS AFTN/EVE...FROM THE SRN DESERTS
INTO THE RIM VICINITY AND THE SERN MOUNTAINS. 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL
FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT
CONTINUES ESEWD...AMPLE PW /AROUND 1 INCH/...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS...
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT AFFECT REGION UNTIL
EARLY MON AS UPR VORT APPROACHES FROM CA/NV. BUT SFC HEATING OF
DEEPLY MIXED...MODESTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD HIGH BASED TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE OVER ERN UT...WRN CO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WY. COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW ALOFT...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE
OF STRONG/ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL GULF CST...
ENHANCED LOW LVL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON N SIDE OF GULF CST
DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STORMS WITH WEAK/INTERMITTENT LOW
LVL ROTATION THIS MORNING. GIVEN VERY RICH MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS
REGION...AND LIKELY NWD ADVANCE OF SHEAR ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS WITH
CONTINUED NWD MOTION OF UPR VORT...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER PARTS
OF LA...MS...AND AL. THE STRONGEST SHEAR/FLOW
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF GREATEST
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE UPR SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT IS
DRAWN NWD ON W SIDE OF MID ATLANTIC RIDGE. THUS...ANY SVR RISK
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/MINIMAL.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/29/2010

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KLIX [291017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 291017
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
517 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE DES ALLEMANDS 29.80N 90.39W
08/29/2010 ST. CHARLES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER REPORTED ENTERING A RESIDENCE IN BAYOU GAUCHE

&&

$$

PGRIGSBY

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290850
SWOD48
SPC AC 290850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A STRONG
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY CONCERNING
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME IS LARGE...RESULTING IN
LOW PREDICTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST SUBSTANTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD SUPPORT MORE THAN A
MINOR SEVERE THREAT WITH A FAVORABLY STRONG AND TIMED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.

..KERR.. 08/29/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290722
SWODY3
SPC AC 290721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EVOLVING
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A TREND TOWARD
A MORE ZONAL BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. APPEARS MOST PROBABLE. A DIGGING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE
A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. AS A DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE MIGRATES ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION...A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...WHILE STALLING/RETREATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AS ANOTHER FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR APPEAR LIKELY TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY...A CORRIDOR OF
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE LEAD WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATELY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE HIGH ALONG THIS AXIS...CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F...AND A BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG...DESPITE WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

STRONGEST HEATING...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOLS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS PROBABLY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. BUT SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW LINGERING
ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ...WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING ...MAY COMPENSATE
TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE COULD
EVOLVE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/29/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290554
SWODY1
SPC AC 290552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WHILE AN EASTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BASAL PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY AS IT TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BY EARLY
MONDAY.

...AZ...
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS GENERALLY REMAINING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF AZ TODAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASTWARD-SHIFTING SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS
WILL INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERT
FLOOR OF SOUTHERN AZ AND ESPECIALLY THE RIM VICINITY/MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST AZ. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT
/30-40 KT AT 500 MB/...AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH A
RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT/SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
EXHIBIT A DEGREE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WHILE APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN
THE PERIOD...OTHER MORE ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A RESIDUAL MOISTURE-RICH
AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UT/WESTERN CO INTO WY. A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INLAND/MINOR ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. WHILE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODEST ATTENDANT TO THE
LOW...PERIPHERAL CLUSTERS/CORRIDORS OF GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
MOVING TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL COULD EXIST WHERE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL HEATING OCCURS...BUT SUCH A RISK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 08/29/2010

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KSLC [290546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 290546
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1140 PM MDT SAT AUG 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUGWAY 40.12N 112.95W
08/28/2010 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

CAMEL BACK MTN - 5077 FT

0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
08/28/2010 M65 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0915 PM NON-TSTM WND GST STOCKTON 40.46N 112.41W
08/28/2010 M71 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

SOUTH MOUNTAIN - 6001 FT

0110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COVE FT 38.64N 112.61W
08/28/2010 M59 MPH MILLARD UT MESONET

DOG VALLEY - 6180 FT

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.96N 112.10W
08/28/2010 M68 MPH JUAB UT MESONET

U.S. 6 AT EUREKA - 6584 FT

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
08/28/2010 M64 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT

0558 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
08/28/2010 M58 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 40.69N 112.27W
08/28/2010 M68 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

LAKE POINT I-80 - 4301 FT

1020 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UINTAH 41.15N 111.95W
08/28/2010 M69 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SOUTH OGDEN - 4780 FT

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.88W
08/28/2010 M72 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK - 9570 FT

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290538
SWODY2
SPC AC 290537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S...ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LATTER FEATURE ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLATEAU REGION...AS LARGER SCALE TROUGHING
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES...GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH
THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE EVOLVING PATTERN...INCLUDING UP TO 50-70 KT AROUND 500 MB DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE... STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EVEN STRENGTHEN
FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THIS PROCESS
CONTINUE TO EXIST AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXISTENCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT IS INCREASING FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS...INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA...THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICKER RETURN OF HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN PERHAPS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. AND THE
NAM...IN PARTICULAR...IS SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AT
LEAST A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING
...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SHOULD YIELD A HOT AND
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING WEAKEN
INHIBITION. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE
THREAT AT LEAST INTO EVENING HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR FROM LATEST MODEL
DATA WHETHER STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL
LINE...OR REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DISCRETE IN NATURE. BUT AS
ACTIVITY ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO A MORE MOIST... AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO AROUND
70F...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 08/29/2010

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