SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291913
COZ000-UTZ000-292115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...UT CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 291913Z - 292115Z
SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN UT AND WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND EXPECT PERSISTENT
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN 30-40KT SWLY FLOW ALOFT...CLOUD-BEARING/EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
30KT SHOULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. LACK OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BUT DEEPLY MIXED WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
IN THE SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
..CARBIN.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37390907 37511002 37821021 38630996 39270953 39810907
40480838 40550775 40030738 39230741 38650787 37730848
37390907
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