KTFX [310336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 310336
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TSTM WND GST VIRGINIA CITY 45.30N 111.94W
08/30/2009 E55 MPH MADISON MT EMERGENCY MNGR

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KLCH [310334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 310334
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM WATER SPOUT 5 SE HOLLY BEACH 29.74N 93.40W
08/30/2009 GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A WATER SPOUT TOUCHED DOWN JUST OFFSHORE
AND WEST OF THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL WITH ANOTHER
FUNNEL CLOUD FORMING.

0605 PM WATER SPOUT 4 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.36W
08/30/2009 GMZ450 LA BROADCAST MEDIA

VIEWER SENT KPLC-TV IN LAKE CHARLES PICTURES OF A
WATERSPOUT OFF THE CAMERON JETTY FISHING PIER TAKEN AT
605 PM CDT.

&&

$$

RUA

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KTFX [310334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 310334
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
934 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM TSTM WND GST MONIDA 44.56N 112.31W
08/30/2009 M58 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR MONIDA

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KLCH [310333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 310333
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM WATER SPOUT 4 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.36W
08/30/2009 GMZ450 LA BROADCAST MEDIA

VIEWER SENT KPLC-TV IN LAKE CHARLES PICTURES OF A
WATERSPOUT OFF THE CAMERON JETTY FISHING PIER TAKEN AT
605 PM CDT.

&&

$$

RUA

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KHGX [310322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 310322
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM TSTM WND GST GALVESTON 29.30N 94.80W
08/30/2009 M59 MPH GALVESTON TX ASOS

&&

$$

47

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KHGX [310318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 310318
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM WATER SPOUT GALVESTON 29.30N 94.80W
08/30/2009 GALVESTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

200 YARDS OFF THE COAST NEAR 33RD ST.

0949 PM TORNADO GALVESTON 29.30N 94.80W
08/30/2009 GALVESTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

WATERSPOUT MOVED ONSHORE BETWEEN 37TH AND 25TH STREETS.
BLEW WINDOW OUT OF POLICE CAR AND TOOK ROOF OFF A
BUILDING.

&&

$$

47

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310059
SWODY1
SPC AC 310056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE ESE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
ID...WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE
VICINITY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
BOISE SAMPLED THE MODEST INSTABILITY/COOL MID LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES...WITH AROUND 780 J/KG MUCAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
-16C AT 500 MB. AS SUCH...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY/MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL POTENTIALLY TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX CENTERED OVER AL EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE/MOIST AXIS. AS SAMPLED BY 00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED
RAOBS...TENDENCY FOR NOCTURNAL COOLING/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL LARGELY CURB TSTM VIGOR...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT YET THIS EVENING.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF CO/NM...
A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE CO/NM HIGH PLAINS...BUT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING/NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN A
WANING SEVERE RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2009

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KPUB [302323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 302323
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM HAIL 15 W KIM 37.25N 103.62W
08/30/2009 M0.88 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN FALLING FROM APPROXIMATLY 503
PM TO 518 PM MDT.

&&

$$

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KLCH [302300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 302300
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM WATER SPOUT 5 SE HOLLY BEACH 29.74N 93.40W
08/30/2009 GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A WATER SPOUT TOUCHED DOWN JUST OFFSHORE
AND WEST OF THE CALCASIEU SHIP CHANNEL WITH ANOTHER
FUNNEL CLOUD FORMING.

&&

$$

RUA

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KCRP [302258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 302258
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM MARINE TSTM WIND FLOUR BLUFF 27.65N 97.30W
08/30/2009 M51.00 MPH NUECES TX ASOS

THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION ASOS MEASURED A 51
MPH WIND GUST.

0506 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE FLOUR BLUFF 27.64N 97.26W
08/30/2009 M44.00 MPH NUECES TX MESONET

THE PACKERY CHANNEL TCOON SITE RECORDED A 44 MPH WIND
GUST.

&&

$$

TM

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KFFC [302248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 302248
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM LIGHTNING CHAMBLEE 33.89N 84.30W
08/30/2009 DEKALB GA BROADCAST MEDIA

WSB TV OF ATLANTA REPORTED TWO LIGHTNING FIRES IN THE
CHAMBLEE...TUCKER AREA OF DEKALB COUNTY. A TWO-STORY HOME
ON BEACON COURT SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM A

LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE. ANOTHER TWO-STORY HOME ON LAUREL
POST COURT ALSO SUSTAINED DAMAGE FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE.

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG LAWRENCEVILLE 33.96N 83.99W
08/30/2009 GWINNETT GA BROADCAST MEDIA

WSB TV OF ATLANTA REPORTS THAT A TREE FELL ON A HOME ON
OAK RIDGE WAY IN LAWRENCEVILLE CAUSING DAMAGE TO THE
STRUCTURE. AT LEAST SIX TREES WERE ALSO DOWN IN THE BIRCH
LANE AREA OF LAWRENCEVILLE.

0130 PM LIGHTNING LAWRENCEVILLE 33.96N 83.99W
08/30/2009 GWINNETT GA BROADCAST MEDIA

WSB TV OF ATLANTA REPORTED THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES IGNITED
AT LEAST THREE HOUSE FIRES ACROSS GWINNETT COUNTY BETWEEN
130 AND 200 PM EDT. HOUSE FIRES WERE REPORTED ON SAN
MARCOS DRIVE AND STONEBROOK COURT IN LAWRENCEVILLE AND
WILDRIDGE DRIVE IN DULUTH. EACH OF THE FIRES RESULTED IN
HEAVY DAMAGE TO THE ATTICS OF THE AFFECTED HOMES.

&&

$$

RAB

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KPIH [302225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 302225
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
425 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 1 NNW HAILEY 43.53N 114.31W
08/30/2009 M0.25 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY HEAVY DOWNFALL OF PEA-SIZE HAIL LASTING ABOUT TWO
MINUTES. 0.30 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE STORM MOVED
NORTH.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KBRO [302153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 302153
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
453 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN RANCHO VIEJO 26.03N 97.56W
08/30/2009 M3.01 INCH CAMERON TX NWS EMPLOYEE

3.01 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 1 1/4 HOURS AT NWS EMPLOYEE
HOUSE. TIME OF EVENT IS APPROX TIME RAIN ENDED.

&&

$$

HART

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KPIH [302135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 302135
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
335 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL 5 SSE KETCHUM 43.62N 114.35W
08/30/2009 M0.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAIL REDUCED TO PEA-SIZE WITHIN 3-4 MINUTES.
REPORTING FROM EASTERN EDGE OF STORM. BULK OF STORM
CROSSING OVER THE CASTLE ROCK BURN AREA.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KPIH [302124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 302124
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
318 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 1 SE KETCHUM 43.68N 114.37W
08/30/2009 M0.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAIL 15 MINUTES AGO. PEA-SIZE HAIL FALLING NOW.

0257 PM HAIL 2 NNW HAILEY 43.54N 114.32W
08/30/2009 M0.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAIL DIMINISHING TO PEA-SIZE BEFORE ALL HAIL
ENDED.LAWN WAS WHITE BY END OF HAIL EVENT. BY 309PM,
RECORDED 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

0259 PM HAIL 2 NNW HAILEY 43.54N 114.32W
08/30/2009 M0.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAILL NOW FALLING.

0302 PM HAIL 3 N HAILEY 43.56N 114.31W
08/30/2009 M0.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 INCH HAIL NOW FALLING.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KCRP [302114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 302114
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM TORNADO 7 SW ROCKPORT 27.97N 97.13W
08/30/2009 ARANSAS TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 188

0359 PM TORNADO 3 N ARANSAS PASS 27.93N 97.14W
08/30/2009 ARANSAS TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 35

&&

$$

CB

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KPUB [302042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 302042
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
242 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM HAIL NE STONEWALL 37.15N 105.02W
08/30/2009 M1.00 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PENNY BUT A FEW QUARTER SIZED HAILSTONES.

&&

$$

JCERU

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1985

ACUS11 KWNS 302026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302026
COZ000-NMZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...NERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302026Z - 302300Z

CONVECTION FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS AND MOVING
SSEWD...PARTICULARLY FROM COS AREA SWD WHERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
FOR TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS I-25 CORRIDOR AND SHORT DISTANCE ONTO
ADJACENT PLAINS. ISOLATED HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TENDENCY AT FIRST WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD
TO SSEWD OUT OF MOUNTAINS AND OVER DEEPER...MORE MOIST...BUT
INITIALLY RELATIVELY STABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INSOLATION FOLLOWING EROSION OF STRATUS DECK SHOULD WEAKEN MLCINH
THROUGH REMAINDER MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN CO BETWEEN COS-LHX AND SWD ACROSS RTN MESA INTO NM.
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO REMAIN N OF RTN MESA
-- COINCIDENT WITH BACKED SFC WIND THAT ENHANCE BOTH HODOGRAPH SIZE
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE AS MUCH
AS 150-250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH FOR DEVIANT/SWD MOVING CELLS...AND STG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW REGIME ALSO SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SFC DEW POINTS VIA MOIST ADVECTION...DURING
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MIXING. DRIER AIR MASS FARTHER S
ACROSS NERN NM...IN WEAKER SHEAR REGIME...WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY
RELATIVE TO SRN CO...ALTHOUGH A FEW STG/DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35530566 36020541 37020506 37690519 38140537 38750541
38580394 38220320 37420312 36880376 36140388 35450440
34820492 34700571 35530566

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302001
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SERN LA/SERN MS ENEWD TO THE
ERN CAROLINAS...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS NOW
INDICATED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

WITH 30 KT SWLYS AT MID-LEVELS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOCALLY-ORGANIZED
STORMS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS. WITH THE EWD-MOVING UPPER FEATURE NOW
OVER CENTRAL MS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING LOCALLY-WIDESPREAD
STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

...SRN ID...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF S
CENTRAL ID...ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SMALL UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE E
CENTRAL OREGON/SWRN ID BORDER. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WHICH IS
ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD -- AND
LOCALLY-VIGOROUS -- STORMS...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THROUGH MID-EVENING.

...WY SWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO NERN NM...
THOUGH LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WY
SWD INTO NM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A MORE STABLE/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER APPRECIABLE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN...MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH ISOLATED
STRONGER/SEWD-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 1985.

..GOSS.. 08/30/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009/

...SOUTHEAST...
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS
SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOOST MLCAPE INTO THE
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MS/AL THIS MORNING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SERN VA INTO SRN MS. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE AND INVOF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
SUPPORT AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS. THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO
FOSTER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN ID...
COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS AREA TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST INTO SERN ID AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE.
APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING.

...CENTRAL-ERN CO INTO NERN NM INTO WY...
ONCE AGAIN...FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE TODAY. MORNING
STRATUS HAS LINGERED NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO SERN
WY...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD ERODE EARLY TODAY AND ALLOW AXIS OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WRN WY. EXPECT DIURNAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER
WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NERN
NM...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REGARDLESS...STRONGER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

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KBRO [301920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 301920
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
219 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM TSTM WND GST HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
08/30/2009 M52 MPH CAMERON TX ASOS

52 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED BY HARLINGEN ASOS

&&

$$

HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1984

ACUS11 KWNS 301757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301757
IDZ000-MTZ000-302000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...IDAHO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301757Z - 302000Z

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...AND
IS CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE OR/ID BORDERS AS OF 1730Z. CU
FIELD/CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE IN A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW DUE TO FAVORABLE ASCENT/UPPER
DIVERGENCE...WITH A MUCH EARLIER START COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE 12Z BOISE SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCH. MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE LITTLE GRASP ON REALITY IN REGARDS TO
INSTABILITY...BUT THE 12Z BOISE SOUNDING YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 500 TO
750 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH MODIFICATION YIELDING NEAR 1000 J/KG SBCAPE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. INITIAL CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DMGG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..HURLBUT.. 08/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 42381469 42011610 42341667 44151660 44501641 45011462
44731334 44451243 43321241 42751315 42531383 42381469

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1983

ACUS11 KWNS 301752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301752
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-301945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1983
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN AL...GA...SC...FL
PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301752Z - 301945Z

TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH MAIN CONCERNS
BEING STG-SVR GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WITH MOST
INTENSE CELLS.

PRIMARY CONCENTRATIONS OF CONVECTION ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN BANDS OF
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT NOW IS
EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS MS. TROUGH IS FCST TO LIFT ENEWD THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WHILE BANDS OF LIFT -- INITIALLY OVER SERN MS
AND S-CENTRAL AL -- LIKEWISE MOVE ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS AL/GA.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN BROAD/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE
RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM SERN AL NEWD ACROSS
W-CENTRAL-NERN GA. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED EWD AND SWD TOWARD ATLANTIC/GULF SEA BREEZES AND AHEAD OF
UVV BANDS INITIALLY OVER MS/AL. PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY...WITH STG SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F -- CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG BY 20Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE AND SRH. HOWEVER...ENHANCED
MID-UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR 35-40 KT OVER BROAD SWATH FROM COASTAL MS/AL TO
CAROLINAS...IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZATION WITHIN PREDOMINANT
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. MRGL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN WEAKNESS OF AMBIENT SHEAR...SUCH MORPHOLOGY
LIKELY WILL REQUIRE LOCALIZED...LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY SUPPLEMENTATION
BY FAVORABLY ORIENTED SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH WHICH
STORMS CAN INTERACT MORE THAN BRIEFLY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LIX...

LAT...LON 32728034 30928284 30448382 30118464 30108504 30598608
30388780 30508936 32278778 32328686 33098506 34508260
34298017 32728034

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301723
SWODY2
SPC AC 301720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW DE-AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS THE STRONGER PORTION OF
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS THE ERN TROUGH DEPARTS...WHILE THE EMBEDDED NWRN
U.S. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
WY/SRN MT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD LINGER FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO S TX...ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD E OF THE ROCKIES. LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MEANWHILE...SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND
ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SRN MT/NRN WY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NERN NM...
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ID COMBINED WITH MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN MT/NRN WY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE COOL MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER CELLS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS NO MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL.

FARTHER S AND E -- INVOF A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH...DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- FROM ERN WY SWD INTO ERN NM. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK
WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST...LOW-LEVEL SELY COMPONENT WILL
YIELD FAVORABLY-VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- AND THUS AMPLE SHEAR FOR
A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ATTM...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN WY SWD INTO SERN CO -- WHERE GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
QUESTIONABLE BENEATH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE
SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 08/30/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301628
SWODY1
SPC AC 301625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SOUTHEAST...
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS
SHOULD STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BOOST MLCAPE INTO THE
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MS/AL THIS MORNING...ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SERN VA INTO SRN MS. EXPECT GENERAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE AND INVOF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
SUPPORT AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS. THE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO
FOSTER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SNAKE RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN ID...
COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS AREA TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
UNDER MID LEVEL COLD POCKET WHERE SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
COULD OCCUR FARTHER EAST INTO SERN ID AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE.
APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...ALTHOUGH HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING.

...CENTRAL-ERN CO INTO NERN NM INTO WY...
ONCE AGAIN...FAIRLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL NM AND THE CO FRONT RANGE TODAY. MORNING
STRATUS HAS LINGERED NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO SERN
WY...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD ERODE EARLY TODAY AND ALLOW AXIS OF
MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/WRN WY. EXPECT DIURNAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT SUSTAINING SLOW MOVING STORMS
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER
WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NERN
NM...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS CAPPING WILL
PERSIST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REGARDLESS...STRONGER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 08/30/2009

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KPHI [301320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 301320
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW MORRIS PARK 39.96N 75.29W
08/29/2009 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL WATER RESCUES REPORTED IN UPPER DARBY DUE TO
FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAIN. WATER ALSO REPORTED TO BE
INTO SOME HOMES.

1127 PM FLASH FLOOD DREXEL HILL 39.95N 75.30W
08/29/2009 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED. 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR,
WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 2.62 INCHES.

1150 PM HEAVY RAIN PENNSAUKEN 39.96N 75.06W
08/29/2009 M4.14 INCH CAMDEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

4.14 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN PENNSAUKEN.

1158 PM FLASH FLOOD PENNSAUKEN 39.96N 75.06W
08/29/2009 CAMDEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS FLOODED. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT STILL GETTING
CALLS.

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD CAMDEN 39.94N 75.11W
08/30/2009 CAMDEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS STREETS IMPASSABLE. 10 HOMES HAVE WATER IN THE
BASEMENTS. NUMEROUS STALLED CARS. THE EOC ENGAGED IN
WATER ASSISTS OF PEOPLE FROM AUTOMOBILES. EXTENSIVE
FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 130. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING WAS THE INCOMING TIDE ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES LEADING TO THE DELAWARE RIVER. RADAR
ESTIMATES NEAR 4 INCHES.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN ARDMORE 40.00N 75.29W
08/30/2009 M2.20 INCH MONTGOMERY PA MESONET

2.20 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED NEAR ARDMORE DURING THE
EVENING OF THE 29TH. REPORT VIA COCORAHS.

&&

$$

GORSE

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KPHI [301306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 301306
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW MORRIS PARK 39.96N 75.29W
08/29/2009 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL WATER RESCUES REPORTED IN UPPER DARBY DUE TO
FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAIN. WATER ALSO REPORTED TO BE
INTO SOME HOMES.

1127 PM FLASH FLOOD DREXEL HILL 39.95N 75.30W
08/29/2009 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED. 1.60 INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 HOUR,
WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 2.62 INCHES.

1158 PM FLASH FLOOD PENNSAUKEN 39.96N 75.06W
08/29/2009 CAMDEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS FLOODED. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT STILL GETTING
CALLS.

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD CAMDEN 39.94N 75.11W
08/30/2009 CAMDEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS STREETS IMPASSABLE. 10 HOMES HAVE WATER IN THE
BASEMENTS. NUMEROUS STALLED CARS. THE EOC ENGAGED IN
WATER ASSISTS OF PEOPLE FROM AUTOMOBILES. EXTENSIVE
FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 130. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXTENSIVE
FLOODING WAS THE INCOMING TIDE ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER
AND TRIBUTARIES LEADING TO THE DELAWARE RIVER. RADAR
ESTIMATES NEAR 4 INCHES.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN ARDMORE 40.00N 75.29W
08/30/2009 M2.20 INCH MONTGOMERY PA MESONET

2.20 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED NEAR ARDMORE DURING THE
EVENING OF THE 29TH. REPORT VIA COCORAHS.

&&

$$

GORSE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301257
SWODY1
SPC AC 301253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN
STATES THIS PERIOD AS RDG PERSISTS OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND SW U.S. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER LA SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E/NE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/EARLY
MON...WHILE COMPACT CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ERN ORE MOVES SLOWLY E INTO
SRN/ERN ID. THE LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE THE MAIN
FOCI FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS PERIOD.

...ID/WRN MT/WRN WY...
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND SUSTAINED ASCENT/COOL AIR ALOFT WITH
EWD-MOVING ORE UPR LOW LIKELY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW UP TO 1 INCH/ AND COOL MID LVL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -14C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES
TO AOA 1000 J/KG. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WX MAY FOCUS FROM
CNTRL/SRN ID NEWD INTO SW MT/NW WY...WHERE 30+ KT SWLY MID LVL FLOW
COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE WEAK SUPERCELLS THAT
MOVE MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE SNAKE RVR VLY. THE SVR THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT.

...ERN CO/NE NM...
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL
RCKYS TODAY AS REGION REMAINS BENEATH AXIS OF MODERATE /25 KT/ NWLY
MID LVL FLOW ON NE FRINGE OF UPR RDG. AT LWR LVLS...ERN PLNS/MS VLY
SFC RDG WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW INTO THE
FRONT RANGE. STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTN...WHERE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...35 KT DEEP NWLY
SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES /-10C AT 500 MB/
MAY SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR
HAIL. WEAKER INSTABILITY/INCREASED CIN OVER THE LWR PLNS...AND
EXPECTED SSELY STORM MOTIONS...SHOULD CONFINE SVR THREAT TO THE
CO/NM FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HI PLNS. THE STORMS
LIKELY WILL WEAKEN EARLY TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST TO CAROLINAS...
SW-NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
THE MAIN LOW LVL FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS IN WARM/HUMID
AIR LINGERING OVER THE SERN STATES. SOME DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST STATES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE...AND POSSIBLY IN THE
FORM OF UPR DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF HI-LVL JET STREAK NOW OVER
E TX. WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MEAN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE SVR WX. BUT SETUP COULD YIELD SEVERAL
BANDS OF STORMS THAT EXHIBIT BOTH FORWARD PROPAGATING AND
BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED STORMS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS
GIVEN PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 08/30/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300855
SWOD48
SPC AC 300854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

AMPLIFICATION WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC APPEARS UNDERWAY. JUST HOW THIS TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN...AS LARGE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW
WITHIN A RATHER BENIGN WEAK FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE END OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

..KERR.. 08/30/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300722
SWODY3
SPC AC 300720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AS A STRONG ZONAL JET
NOSES ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. BUT...A GENERALLY
WEAK...BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST...WHILE A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS IN THE EAST. AS A
SMALL WEAK EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MIGRATES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SOME SHARPENING OF THE RIDGE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
IS FORECAST TO TURN SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

COOLING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONFINE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHERE UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.

...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
DIGGING UPPER LOW/TROUGH INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITH A GULF MOISTURE RETURN STILL CUT-OFF...AND
MODELS FORECASTING A GRADUAL DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH BY TUESDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED. EVEN SO...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 08/30/2009

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KPHI [300648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 300648
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD CAMDEN 39.94N 75.11W
08/30/2009 CAMDEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS STREETS IMPASSABLE. 10 HOMES HAVE WATER IN THE
BASEMENTS.NUMEROUS STALLED CARS. EOC ENGAGED IN WATER
ASSISTS FROM AUTOMOBILES. EXTENSIVE FLOODING ALONG
HIGHWAY 130. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXTENSIVE FLOODING WAS
THE TIDE WAS INCOMING ALONG THE DELWARE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES LEADING TO THE DELAWARE RIVER. RADAR
ESTIMATES NEAR 4 INCHES.

&&

$$

EBERWINE(CORRECTED FOR CITY)

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KPHI [300645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 300645
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM FLASH FLOOD CALVERT 39.94N 75.11W
08/30/2009 CAMDEN NJ BROADCAST MEDIA

NUMEROUS STREETS IMPASSABLE. 10 HOMES HAVE WATER IN THE
BASEMENTS.NUMEROUS STALLED CARS. EOC ENGAGED IN WATER
ASSISTS FROM AUTOMOBILES. EXTENSIVE FLOODING ALONG
HIGHWAY 130. CONTRIBUTING TO THE EXTENSIVE FLOODING WAS
THE TIDE WAS INCOMING ALONG THE DELWARE RIVER AND
TRIBUTARIES LEADING TO THE DELAWARE RIVER. RADAR
ESTIMATES NEAR 4 INCHES.

&&

$$

EBERWINE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300558
SWODY1
SPC AC 300557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF ID/MT/WY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER ORE TO SOUTHERN ID TODAY AND TONIGHT. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER LOW...AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT REGION AMIDST STRONG DIFFLUENCE SHOULD FAVOR A
DIURNAL UPSWING IN TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES
ALOFT /AROUND -14C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION /500-1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/ BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ID AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MT/NORTHWEST WY. MODERATELY STRONG/BUT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL FAVOR SOME RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS /PERHAPS SOME
WITH BOUTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION/ CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM...
BENEATH A RESIDUAL BELT OF MODERATE /25 KT/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SLOW EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGLY
VEERED WIND PROFILES WITH AROUND 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-10C AT 500
MB/...WILL FAVOR A SOME MULTICELL/BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR STORMS CAPABLE
OF SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TENDENCY FOR CAPPING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD CONFINE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TO THE CO/NM FRONT RANGE AND IMMEDIATE LEE
/50-100 NM/ OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST STATES TO CAROLINAS...
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE LIFT VIA UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION AND/OR A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES. WHILE AN
ORGANIZED/APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED OWING TO LIMITED
LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY AND/OR MODEST SHEAR...SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 08/30/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300549
SWODY2
SPC AC 300546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BECOME CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY WELL
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW/SIGNIFICANT POLAR TROUGH...NOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WEAK/WEAKENING CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...HOWEVER...WITH A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE
INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/ NORTHERN
PACIFIC COAST. WITHIN THE WESTERN RIDGING...A MUCH SMALLER AND
WEAKER CLOSED LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER...WHILE SLOWLY
DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC
FORCING...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER.

SHEAR BENEATH WEAK TO MODEST WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS...BUT SUBSTANTIVE INSTABILITY
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO A NARROW ZONE
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA/NORTHERN WYOMING COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
PROBABLY HAVE YET TO BE IMPACTED SUBSTANTIALLY BY COOLING/ DRYING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROGGED UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER... IN
THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR...WARM SOUNDINGS WITH A
HIGH DEGREE OF SATURATION MAY MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND PRODUCING DOWNBURSTS.

..KERR.. 08/30/2009

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KBOI [300433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 300433
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1033 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM HAIL NAMPA 43.58N 116.56W
08/29/2009 E0.75 INCH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

1018 PM HAIL 2 W NAMPA 43.59N 116.61W
08/29/2009 E0.25 INCH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY ACCUMULUTATIONS ON THE GROUND OF PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

MTHIMMES

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KPHI [300402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 300402
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 PM FLASH FLOOD DREXEL HILL 39.95N 75.30W
08/29/2009 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED-1.60 IN 1 HOUR - TOTAL 2.62

1158 PM FLASH FLOOD CAMDEN 39.94N 75.11W
08/29/2009 CAMDEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS FLOODED WITH 3 CARS STRANDED

1158 PM FLASH FLOOD PENNSAUKEN 39.96N 75.06W
08/29/2009 CAMDEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS FLOODED - STILL GETTING CALLS

&&

$$

EBERWINE

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