SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302026
COZ000-NMZ000-302300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN CO...NERN NM.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302026Z - 302300Z
CONVECTION FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS AND MOVING
SSEWD...PARTICULARLY FROM COS AREA SWD WHERE POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
FOR TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS I-25 CORRIDOR AND SHORT DISTANCE ONTO
ADJACENT PLAINS. ISOLATED HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TENDENCY AT FIRST WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SEWD
TO SSEWD OUT OF MOUNTAINS AND OVER DEEPER...MORE MOIST...BUT
INITIALLY RELATIVELY STABLE...BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INSOLATION FOLLOWING EROSION OF STRATUS DECK SHOULD WEAKEN MLCINH
THROUGH REMAINDER MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN CO BETWEEN COS-LHX AND SWD ACROSS RTN MESA INTO NM.
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO REMAIN N OF RTN MESA
-- COINCIDENT WITH BACKED SFC WIND THAT ENHANCE BOTH HODOGRAPH SIZE
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS EACH INDICATE AS MUCH
AS 150-250 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH FOR DEVIANT/SWD MOVING CELLS...AND STG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW REGIME ALSO SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SFC DEW POINTS VIA MOIST ADVECTION...DURING
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MIXING. DRIER AIR MASS FARTHER S
ACROSS NERN NM...IN WEAKER SHEAR REGIME...WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY
RELATIVE TO SRN CO...ALTHOUGH A FEW STG/DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35530566 36020541 37020506 37690519 38140537 38750541
38580394 38220320 37420312 36880376 36140388 35450440
34820492 34700571 35530566
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