NWUS56 KPQR 020225
LSRPQR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
725 PM PDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 N DEPOE BAY 44.82N 124.06W
10/01/2013 LINCOLN OR PUBLIC
PHOTOGRAPHED A COLD CORE FUNNEL CLOUD
&&
$$
CNEUMAN
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Tuesday, October 1, 2013
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 020043
SWODY1
SPC AC 020041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. AMID A
RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TONIGHT. A TSTM OR TWO MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. FARTHER EAST...AN
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IMPLY ONLY A MARGINAL POTENTIAL THAT ANY SUCH CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
ELSEWHERE...NEAR A SLOW-MOVING/WEAK UPPER LOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MEAGER
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS.
..GUYER.. 10/02/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 020041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. AMID A
RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TONIGHT. A TSTM OR TWO MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. FARTHER EAST...AN
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IMPLY ONLY A MARGINAL POTENTIAL THAT ANY SUCH CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
ELSEWHERE...NEAR A SLOW-MOVING/WEAK UPPER LOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MEAGER
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS.
..GUYER.. 10/02/2013
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KSEW [012351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KSEW 012351
LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
451 PM PDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW TUMWATER 46.97N 122.99W
10/01/2013 M3.50 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER
48 HOUR TOTAL FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM TODAY.
&&
$$
GRUB
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LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
451 PM PDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW TUMWATER 46.97N 122.99W
10/01/2013 M3.50 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER
48 HOUR TOTAL FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM TODAY.
&&
$$
GRUB
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KLCH [012041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 012041
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
341 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0151 PM WATER SPOUT 62 S BURNS POINT 28.67N 91.50W
10/01/2013 GMZ475 XX PUBLIC
PHOTO OF A WATER SPOUT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND
208. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR AND APPROXIMATE TIME
FROM PUBLIC.
&&
$$
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
341 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0151 PM WATER SPOUT 62 S BURNS POINT 28.67N 91.50W
10/01/2013 GMZ475 XX PUBLIC
PHOTO OF A WATER SPOUT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND
208. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR AND APPROXIMATE TIME
FROM PUBLIC.
&&
$$
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011939
SWODY1
SPC AC 011936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY
JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011936
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY
JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION.
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KTFX [011824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 011824
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1223 PM MDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
10/01/2013 M5.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
17 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION BADGER PASS SNOTEL ELEVATION
6900 FEET MSL
&&
$$
BLANK
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1223 PM MDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 AM SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
10/01/2013 M5.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
17 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION BADGER PASS SNOTEL ELEVATION
6900 FEET MSL
&&
$$
BLANK
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 011717
SWODY2
SPC AC 011715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY THU. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL STATES WILL SHIFT TO SERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE
MID-MO VALLEY.
...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD
ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
OF A WRN GULF AIR MASS. THIS WILL OVERLAP THE PERIPHERY OF AN EML
PLUME WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE/WAA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXIST FOR SCATTERED
STORMS TO FORM...LIKELY BACKBUILDING AND GROWING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN KS/SRN PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH 500 MB SWLYS LARGELY
AOB 20 KT OVER THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WEAKLY-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 011715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY THU. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL STATES WILL SHIFT TO SERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE
MID-MO VALLEY.
...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD
ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
OF A WRN GULF AIR MASS. THIS WILL OVERLAP THE PERIPHERY OF AN EML
PLUME WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE/WAA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXIST FOR SCATTERED
STORMS TO FORM...LIKELY BACKBUILDING AND GROWING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN KS/SRN PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH 500 MB SWLYS LARGELY
AOB 20 KT OVER THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WEAKLY-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013
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KMFR [011637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 011637
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
937 AM PDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0935 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E GLENDALE 42.74N 123.39W
10/01/2013 M4.10 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
&&
$$
BUNNAG
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
937 AM PDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0935 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E GLENDALE 42.74N 123.39W
10/01/2013 M4.10 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
&&
$$
BUNNAG
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KHGX [011558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 011558
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1047 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE SAN LEON 29.48N 94.92W
10/01/2013 M45 MPH GALVESTON TX PORTS
WIND GUST MEASURED AT EAGLE POINT PORTS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300185
$$
42
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1047 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 ESE SAN LEON 29.48N 94.92W
10/01/2013 M45 MPH GALVESTON TX PORTS
WIND GUST MEASURED AT EAGLE POINT PORTS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300185
$$
42
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011543
SWODY1
SPC AC 011540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY
JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY
JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/01/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 011226
SWODY1
SPC AC 011223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. A COUPLE OF MORE
PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM
AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
NW COAST TO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A LOWER-LATITUDE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER LA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER IMPULSE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN HIGH
PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING POLEWARD OWING TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...PACIFIC NW TODAY...
HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LA VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE LA COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST...NAMELY INVOF
STRENGTHENING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED.
...NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
FOSTER SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE D1
PERIOD.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 011223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. A COUPLE OF MORE
PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM
AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
NW COAST TO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A LOWER-LATITUDE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER LA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER IMPULSE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN HIGH
PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING POLEWARD OWING TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.
...PACIFIC NW TODAY...
HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LA VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE LA COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST...NAMELY INVOF
STRENGTHENING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED.
...NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
FOSTER SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE D1
PERIOD.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/01/2013
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 010733
SWOD48
SPC AC 010732
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...FRIDAY D4: NEB...IA...MN...WI...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON FRI/D4 ANYWHERE FROM FAR ERN NEB INTO
IA...SRN MN...AND SWRN WI.
THE WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/D4...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB/IA
BORDER FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 65-68 F WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...E OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TRAILING S FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND S OF A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI.
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...AND
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.
...FRIDAY D4: ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FARTHER N. STILL...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. INTERROGATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL
BE A FACTOR AWAY FROM THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...ANY CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE IN A VERY SHORT TIME WINDOW UNTIL THE
FRONT UNDERCUTS THEM...ACROSS WRN AREAS WHERE HEATING IS STRONGEST.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE SQUALL LINE.
...SATURDAY D5: MI INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED INTO SAT/D5 AS THE LOW
ROTATES NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 010732
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...FRIDAY D4: NEB...IA...MN...WI...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON FRI/D4 ANYWHERE FROM FAR ERN NEB INTO
IA...SRN MN...AND SWRN WI.
THE WRN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/D4...WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NEB/IA
BORDER FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF 65-68 F WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...E OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
TRAILING S FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND S OF A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SRN MN INTO CNTRL WI.
DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...AND
VERY LARGE HAIL. A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.
...FRIDAY D4: ERN KS...OK...WRN MO...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FARTHER N. STILL...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. INTERROGATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPPING WILL
BE A FACTOR AWAY FROM THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...ANY CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE IN A VERY SHORT TIME WINDOW UNTIL THE
FRONT UNDERCUTS THEM...ACROSS WRN AREAS WHERE HEATING IS STRONGEST.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE SQUALL LINE.
...SATURDAY D5: MI INTO THE LOWER OH/MID MS VALLEY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OCCLUDED INTO SAT/D5 AS THE LOW
ROTATES NWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STRONG FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH END.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 010555
SWODY3
SPC AC 010554
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AT 00Z. SLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NWD...RESULTING IN
AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM NERN
KS INTO IA.
...NERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO...
AN AREA OF EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
AND N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS N WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ZONE SHOULD BE
ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO IA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS KS...WITH AREAS OF HEATING S OF EXISTING
OUTFLOWS OR CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT.
HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE
PLAINS...AND THERE WILL BE A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THE
FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS LATE WITH DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER..MODELS DIFFER AS TO LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE SEVERE
CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BE ALONG A TOPEKA TO KANSAS CITY LINE...OR
FARTHER N FROM OMAHA TO DES MOINES. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST NRN
SOLUTION WITH NAM FARTHER S. WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY
SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 010554
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AT 00Z. SLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NWD...RESULTING IN
AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM NERN
KS INTO IA.
...NERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO...
AN AREA OF EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
AND N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS N WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ZONE SHOULD BE
ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO IA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS KS...WITH AREAS OF HEATING S OF EXISTING
OUTFLOWS OR CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT.
HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE
PLAINS...AND THERE WILL BE A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THE
FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS LATE WITH DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER..MODELS DIFFER AS TO LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE SEVERE
CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BE ALONG A TOPEKA TO KANSAS CITY LINE...OR
FARTHER N FROM OMAHA TO DES MOINES. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST NRN
SOLUTION WITH NAM FARTHER S. WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY
SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 010456
SWODY1
SPC AC 010454
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
WHILE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST CONUS-WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH SPARSE MOISTURE/RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE LIMITING TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND OTHER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH FL. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY/SUSTAINABILITY IN THESE AREAS...WITH SEVERE
TSTMS NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 010454
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
WHILE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST CONUS-WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH SPARSE MOISTURE/RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE LIMITING TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND OTHER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTH FL. WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY/SUSTAINABILITY IN THESE AREAS...WITH SEVERE
TSTMS NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 10/01/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 010426
SWODY2
SPC AC 010425
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER AMPLIFICATION FARTHER W...AND WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SEWD TO A SRN MN TO CNTRL NEB LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FROM NEB/KS INTO IA AND MN.
...NEB/KS INTO IA AND SRN MN...
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH STORMS EASILY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY FROM NRN NEB INTO SERN SD. WHILE SOME
LOW LEVEL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILES WILL PERSIST...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MARGINAL AND HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST MAINLY SEWD PROPAGATING
MULTICELLS. A FEW OF THE STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY DURING THE EVENING WITH BACK BUILDING STORMS SUPPORTED BY A
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 010425
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER AMPLIFICATION FARTHER W...AND WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT SEWD TO A SRN MN TO CNTRL NEB LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND
THREAT FROM NEB/KS INTO IA AND MN.
...NEB/KS INTO IA AND SRN MN...
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH STORMS EASILY FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY FROM NRN NEB INTO SERN SD. WHILE SOME
LOW LEVEL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILES WILL PERSIST...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MARGINAL AND HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST MAINLY SEWD PROPAGATING
MULTICELLS. A FEW OF THE STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY DURING THE EVENING WITH BACK BUILDING STORMS SUPPORTED BY A
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.
..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013
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