DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011717
SWODY2
SPC AC 011715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY INTO
THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY THU. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL STATES WILL SHIFT TO SERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE
MID-MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD
ADVECTION OF UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S DEW POINTS ALONG THE NRN EXTENT
OF A WRN GULF AIR MASS. THIS WILL OVERLAP THE PERIPHERY OF AN EML
PLUME WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING. SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE/WAA ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXIST FOR SCATTERED
STORMS TO FORM...LIKELY BACKBUILDING AND GROWING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS IN KS/SRN PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH 500 MB SWLYS LARGELY
AOB 20 KT OVER THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WEAKLY-ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013

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