Georgia-Florida SKYWARN: 01/09/12

Monday, January 9, 2012

KLCH [100407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 100407
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1001 PM HEAVY RAIN LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
01/09/2012 M2.32 INCH LAFAYETTE LA ASOS

LAFAYETTE REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 2.32 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WHICH WAS 1.63 SET IN 1984.

1001 PM HEAVY RAIN NEW IBERIA 30.01N 91.82W
01/09/2012 M2.02 INCH IBERIA LA ASOS

NEW IBERIA REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 2.02 INCHES OF
RAIN SO FAR TODAY. THE BREAKS THE PREVIOUS DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD OF 1.12 WHICH WAS SET IN 1984.

TINGLER

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KLCH [100213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 100213
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 PM HEAVY RAIN CARLYSS 30.18N 93.37W
01/09/2012 M5.43 INCH CALCASIEU LA AWOS

5.43 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY AT SOUTHLAND FIELD
THROUGH 8 PM CST.

TINGLER

KLCH [100211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 100211
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
811 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL A 30.12N 93.22W
01/09/2012 M6.02 INCH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

6.02 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY THROUGH 8
PM CST AT KLCH. THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 2.59 INCHES SET
IN 1984.

TINGLER

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0011

ACUS11 KWNS 100110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100109
TXZ000-100415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 100109Z - 100415Z

THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF REDEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS/TRANSPECOS REGION INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...IN THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASED LAYER FOR DENDRITIC ICE
CRYSTAL GROWTH...IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT TO A MORE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF MIDLAND INTO THE SWEETWATER AREA...DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE ORDER OF .5
TO .75 INCHES...HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR
TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THE
EASTERN END OF THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO PIVOT/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD
INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS...WHERE COOLING MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW. THIS ...COUPLED WITH WEAKENING LIFT IN THE
RESIDUAL SUBFREEZING ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING SNOW RATES AND A GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE SNOW BAND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..KERR.. 01/10/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32930262 33140220 33170052 32789995 32110007 31890067
32100151 32270252 32670272 32930262

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100038
SWODY1
SPC AC 100036

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER W TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE TX
COAST...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
EXTENDING E FROM THIS LOW WAS A COASTAL WARM FRONT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS TO THE S.

...SRN LA/MS...
NUMEROUS STORMS WERE ONGOING FROM SWRN LA INTO THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO...NEAR SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION AND EXTENDING SWWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER CONVECTIVE RAIN WAS OCCURRING N OF THE
WARM FRONT...COVERING MUCH OF SRN LA. HERE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED VERY MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN.

A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
FROM SERN TX INTO LA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. AS SUCH...ANY SEVERE WIND OR BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST.
HAVE DROPPED THE 15% SEVERE PROBS BUT LOW PROBS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
REMAINS OVERNIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 01/10/2012

KLCH [100010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 100010
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
610 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM HEAVY RAIN LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL A 30.12N 93.22W
01/09/2012 E0.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

4.09 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN SO FAR TODAY THROUGH 6
PM CST AND MORE RAIN WILL OCCUR. THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS
2.59 INCHES SET IN 1984.

TINGLER

KHGX [092355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHGX 092355
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
554 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 NE BRYAN 30.79N 96.22W
01/09/2012 BRAZOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR OSR AND FOUNTAIN SWISS RD IN NE
BRAZOS COUNTY.

0545 AM TSTM WND DMG TRINITY 30.94N 95.37W
01/09/2012 TRINITY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CLUSTERS OF TREES DOWN ALONG FM 230 FROM THE COUNTY LINE
TO TRINITY.

0757 AM HAIL EAST BERNARD 29.53N 96.06W
01/09/2012 E1.50 INCH WHARTON TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZE HAIL IN EAST BERNARD RELAYED FROM HCFCD.

0850 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 WNW SUGAR LAND 29.64N 95.66W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT GRAND PARKWAY
HWY 99 AND MASON ROAD

0852 AM HAIL 2 SE KATY 29.78N 95.80W
01/09/2012 E0.88 INCH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT HWY 99 AND FRY ROAD

0855 AM HAIL MISSION BEND 29.69N 95.66W
01/09/2012 E1.00 INCH FORT BEND TX PUBLIC

0900 AM HAIL 2 N RICHMOND 29.61N 95.76W
01/09/2012 E0.75 INCH FORT BEND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT BELLAIRE AND HWY 99 NORTH OF RICHMOND

0905 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW MEADOWS 29.68N 95.66W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES IN THE MISSION BEND AREA. GARAGE
DOORS BLOWN IN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED.

0940 AM TSTM WND GST 3 NE HILSHIRE VILLAGE 29.82N 95.45W
01/09/2012 E60.00 MPH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST AT HCFCD AT HWY 290 AND LOOP 610.

1006 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGH WATER WITH BOAT RESCUES TAKING PLACE THIRD STREET.

1007 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW HOUSTON 29.72N 95.45W
01/09/2012 HARRIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HOUSTON FIRE DEPARTMENT WORKING NUMEROUS HIGH WATER
RESCUES SOUTHWEST HOUSTON.

1038 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW FIRST COLONY 29.59N 95.68W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL SUBMERGED VEHICLES IN NEW TERRITORY SUBDIVISION.

1130 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE BONNEY 29.27N 95.44W
01/09/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF BLOWN OFF. DEBRIS IN TREES. COUNTY ROAD 49. POSSIBLE
TORNADO.

1135 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNE FIRST COLONY 29.60N 95.59W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR

STRANDED MOTORISTS SETTLERS WAY AND LEXINGTON BLVD.

1135 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE BONNEY 29.28N 95.44W
01/09/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TRACTOR TRAILERS BLOWN OVER AROUND INTERSECTION OF
288 AND COUNTY ROAD 48. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1238 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SANTA FE 29.38N 95.10W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

1239 PM TSTM WND DMG SANTA FE 29.38N 95.10W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN CEMETERY ROAD.

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE DICKINSON 29.40N 95.05W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND FENCES DOWN ALONG WESTWOOD LOOP IN LA MARQUE
TEXAS. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0100 PM TORNADO 4 SE DICKINSON 29.41N 95.03W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LAW ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED TOUCH DOWN NEAR MALL OF THE
MAINLAND IN TEXAS CITY. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF VEHICLES IN
PARKING LOT. ROOF OF MALL DAMAGED.

DREILLY

KEPZ [092016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEPZ 092016
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
115 PM MST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 AM SNOW CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
01/09/2012 M5.3 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

0759 AM SNOW 5 NE CLOUDCROFT 33.00N 105.68W
01/09/2012 M3.7 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

0800 AM SNOW 2 S CLOUDCROFT 32.92N 105.74W
01/09/2012 M3.5 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200001 EPZ1200002 EPZ1200003

GRZYWACZ

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091943
SWODY1
SPC AC 091942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND
SWRN LA...

...WRN GULF COAST...

EARLIER THOUGHTS ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES GRADUALLY SAGGING SEWD
ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. AIRMASS HAS GREATLY
STABILIZED INLAND IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE
A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT FROM MATAGORDA COUNTY...ALONG THE MIDDLE
TX COAST...WEST. LATE TONIGHT A RENEWED CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER AND POINTS EAST.
OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO ADDRESS THE DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012/

...UPPER TX AND SW LA COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE TX BIG BEND THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ENEWD
OVER CENTRAL TX BY TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW...A
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT
ACROSS SE TX BY THIS EVENING...AND THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD INTO E
TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INFLUX OF MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SW LA
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE RICH MOISTURE WILL HELP MAINTAIN MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE VWP FROM HOUSTON AND MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST...WITHIN THE
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS NEAR ITS PEAK IN TERMS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD/NEWD
AND AWAY FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE PART OF THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THUS...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY PEAK
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
/NEAR AND S OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA/...AND THEN DIMINISH SOME
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
DAMAGING GUST WILL SPREAD INTO SW LA...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE NW GULF. THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL BE IN QUESTION AS A RESULT OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND TONIGHT FROM SE TX INTO W/SW
LA.

KHGX [091932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091932
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
132 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW MEADOWS 29.68N 95.66W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE TO HOMES. GARAGE DOORS BLOWN IN. POSSIBLE
TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED.

DREILLY

KHGX [091923]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091923
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
123 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SANTA FE 29.38N 95.10W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0100 PM TORNADO 4 SE DICKINSON 29.41N 95.03W
01/09/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LAW ENFORCEMENT WITNESSED TOUCH DOWN NEAR MALL OF THE
MAINLAND IN TEXAS CITY. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE THUS FAR.

DREILLY

KEWX [091816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091816
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1216 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HAIL 2 W LBJ STATE PARK 30.24N 98.66W
01/09/2012 E0.25 INCH GILLESPIE TX PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL... FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES DEEP...CORNER OF
FM1623 AND FM2721.

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200005

KHGX [091809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091809
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE BONNEY 29.27N 95.44W
01/09/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF BLOWN OFF. DEBRIS IN TREES. COUNTY ROAD 49. POSSIBLE
TORNADO.

1135 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE BONNEY 29.28N 95.44W
01/09/2012 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TRACTOR TRAILERS BLOWN OVER AROUND INTERSECTION OF
288 AND COUNTY ROAD 48. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

DREILLY

KJAN [091722]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 091722
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1122 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL COLLINS 31.64N 89.56W
01/08/2012 E1.25 INCH COVINGTON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 49 AND COLD
SPRINGS ROAD.

0825 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW FORKVILLE 32.49N 89.74W
01/08/2012 SCOTT MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG DENSON RD...MEASELS RD
AND FAIRCHILDS RD

0850 PM HAIL LENA 32.59N 89.59W
01/08/2012 E1.00 INCH LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0850 PM TSTM WND DMG LENA 32.59N 89.59W
01/08/2012 LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. METAL ON POWER LINES IN
THE CITY OF LENA.

0906 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE CARTHAGE 32.70N 89.48W
01/08/2012 LEAKE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 488 NEAR FREENY

0950 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNW PHILADELPHIA 32.91N 89.18W
01/08/2012 NESHOBA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY RD 185 NEAR ARLINGTON. POWER OUT
ALONG COUNTY RD 187.

0955 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 NNW PHILADELPHIA 32.92N 89.18W
01/08/2012 NESHOBA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND MINOR DAMAGE TO 3 MOBILE HOMES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WINSTON AND NESHOBA COUNTY LINE AROUND
COUNTY ROAD 187

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG NOXAPATER 32.99N 89.06W
01/08/2012 WINSTON MS PUBLIC

SCATTERED TREES BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. A FEW
INSTANCES OF TRAMPOLINES BLOWN UP INTO TREES NOTED.

BRYANT

KJAN [091721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 091721
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG NOXAPATER 32.99N 89.06W
01/08/2012 WINSTON MS PUBLIC

SCATTERED TREES BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. A FEW
INSTANCES OF TRAMPOLINES BLOWN UP INTO TREES NOTED.

BRYANT

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091718
SWODY2
SPC AC 091717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY
11/00Z AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO EAST TX. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FORCE THE ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT TO A POSITION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER BY SUNRISE ARCING NWWD TO
A SFC LOW OVER NERN TX. IT APPEARS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S...POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS
I-20 ALONG THE LA/MS BORDER BY MID DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE
WILL EXIST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER AR. FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES...AND LAPSE RATES THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
BUT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK. FOR THIS REASON THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LINE SEGMENTS/BOW SHAPED
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE
WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD SURGE INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 11/12Z.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2012

KJAN [091659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 091659
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1059 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 NNW PHILADELPHIA 32.92N 89.18W
01/08/2012 NESHOBA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND MINOR DAMAGE TO 3 MOBILE HOMES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WINSTON AND NESHOBA COUNTY LINE AROUND
COUNTY ROAD 187

BRYANT

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091609
SWODY1
SPC AC 091607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SE
TX AND SW LA...

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 01/09/2012

KHGX [091554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091554
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM TSTM WND GST 3 NE HILSHIRE VILLAGE 29.82N 95.45W
01/09/2012 E60 MPH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WIND GUST AT HCFCD AT HWY 290 AND LOOP 610.

OVERPECK

KHGX [091551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091551
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
951 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 AM HAIL 2 SE KATY 29.78N 95.80W
01/09/2012 E0.88 INCH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT HWY 99 AND FRY ROAD

OVERPECK

KHGX [091543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091543
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
943 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HAIL 2 N RICHMOND 29.61N 95.76W
01/09/2012 E0.75 INCH FORT BEND TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT BELLAIRE AND HWY 99 NORTH OF RICHMOND

OVERPECK

KAMA [091542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 091542
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
942 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM SNOW 2 NNE KENTON 36.93N 102.96W
01/09/2012 M1.0 INCH CIMARRON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200001

SMB

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0010

ACUS11 KWNS 091533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091533
LAZ000-TXZ000-091730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091533Z - 091730Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MARGINAL...WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS MORNING.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF
HOUSTON TX NEWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S F. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST
WSR-88 VWPS FROM SE TX AND SW LA SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 300
TO 400 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM HOUSTON TX ENEWD
TO LAKE CHARLES LA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 01/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31179407 30609521 29959586 29539603 29089590 28939536
29299454 29579380 29619282 29849236 30229216 30829210
31349232 31429280 31179407

KHGX [091512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 091512
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
912 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 WNW SUGAR LAND 29.64N 95.66W
01/09/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT GRAND PARKWAY
HWY 99 AND MASON ROAD

OVERPECK

KHGX [091507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091507
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 NE SUGAR LAND 29.67N 95.56W
01/09/2012 HARRIS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AT GRAND PARKWAY
HWY 99 AND MASON ROAD

OVERPECK

KEWX [091447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091447
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM HAIL 3 W HORSESHOE BAY 30.54N 98.40W
01/09/2012 M0.25 INCH LLANO TX COCORAHS

PEA SIZE HAIL.

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200004

KEWX [091446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091446
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM HAIL 3 SSW CAMP VERDE 29.84N 99.12W
01/09/2012 M0.25 INCH BANDERA TX COCORAHS

PEA SIZE HAIL.

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200003

KHGX [091442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091442
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
842 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0757 AM HAIL EAST BERNARD 29.53N 96.06W
01/09/2012 E1.50 INCH WHARTON TX PUBLIC

PING PONG SIZE HAIL IN EAST BERNARD RELAYED FROM HCFCD.

OVERPECK

KEWX [091333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091333
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
733 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 AM HAIL 2 E CENTER POINT 29.93N 99.00W
01/09/2012 E0.50 INCH KERR TX PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200002

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0009

ACUS11 KWNS 091251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091251
TXZ000-091745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 091251Z - 091745Z

RAIN-SNOW TRANSITION HAS BEGUN OVER LOWER PECOS REGION GENERALLY
FROM INK-FST. PRIND RATES WILL INCREASE TO 1-2 INCHES/HOUR IN
INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED PRECIP BAND INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM WRN
PECOS COUNTY NWD OVER WINKLER COUNTY. EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL OFFER
LOCALIZED/BRIEF RATES ABOVE 2 INCHES/HOUR.

SNOW AREA SHOULD PIVOT CYCLONICALLY IN KEEPING WITH EWD SHIFT OF
MID-UPPER LOW...WHILE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BENEATH ELEVATED MOIST
CONVEYOR. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN
OPTIMAL DENDRITIC-GROWTH LAYER MOVES ACROSS REGION. EXPECT INCREASE
IN SNOW RATES OVER MAF AREA AND NWD/NEWD TOWARD PORTIONS
GARZA/LYNN/TERRY COUNTIES...WHILE HEAVY SNOW AREA SNOW
EXPANDS/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS PECOS/CROCKETT/REAGAN/
GLASSCOCK/HOWARD COUNTIES THROUGH 16Z. SFC TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH MID-LOW 30S F FROM W-E...FROM COMBINATION OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER CAA...WEAK WET-BULB COOLING...AND COLUMNAR DYNAMIC
COOLING. MEANWHILE RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-800 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL...WHILE RH INCREASES WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH COLUMN
AS WELL. THESE PROCESSES WILL FOSTER RAIN-SNOW CHANGEOVER IN ERN
PARTS OF DISCUSSION AREA...AND MAINTAIN SNOW AS DOMINANT
WINTER-PRECIP PHASE. OBSERVED 12Z MAF SOUNDING AND MODIFIED RUC
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TREND...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT MUCAPE 100-300 J/KG ROOTED NEAR 700
MB AND EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION.
THEREFORE OCNL THUNDERSNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MORE OF AREA...WITH LTG
ALREADY DETECTED BETWEEN MAF-FST.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30490278 30930310 31790306 32550272 33030231 33160177
33270107 32860077 32030119 31450130 30970160 30560229
30490278

KHGX [091249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 091249
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
649 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 NE BRYAN 30.79N 96.22W
01/09/2012 BRAZOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR OSR AND FOUNTAIN SWISS RD IN NE
BRAZOS COUNTY.

0545 AM TSTM WND DMG TRINITY 30.94N 95.37W
01/09/2012 TRINITY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CLUSTERS OF TREES DOWN ALONG FM 230 FROM THE COUNTY LINE
TO TRINITY.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091244
SWODY1
SPC AC 091243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR OR S OF ELP WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EWD LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AN ASSOCIATED JET
STREAK OVER NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS THROUGH BASAL PORTION OF UPPER
LOW...REACHING THE TX COAST INTO SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR COT AS OF 12Z WILL
CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP ENEWD NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TX COAST BEFORE
CURVING NWD/NWWD WHILE OCCLUDING OVER THE SABINE VALLEY. ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SWD
--AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW-- WHILE REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER CNTRL PARTS OF LA...MS AND AL. MEANWHILE...SEGMENT OF BOUNDARY
TRAILING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY SEWD/SWD AS A COLD
FRONT.

...MID/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...

12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS MOISTENED
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F AND A ML MIXING RATIO OF 14.5 G/KG. GIVEN THE OBSERVED STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT WARM SECTOR
TO SHRINK TOWARD THE TX COAST TODAY AS COMPOSITE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ADVANCES SEWD. NONETHELESS...THE STRONGER THAN FORECAST INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE NARROWING WARM SECTOR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
RESIDE FROM THE MID/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 8.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES...

12Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INDICATE THAT ONLY MODEST
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
1000 J/KG WITH LITTLE OR NO REMAINING CIN. WHILE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN THAT OVER TX...PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER TODAY. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS...SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 01/09/2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 091200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091159
LAZ000-TXZ000-091430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN...SWRN LA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091159Z - 091430Z

CONVECTIVE REGIME DISCUSSED IN EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 7 IS
UNDERGOING EWD AND COASTWARD SHIFTS IN GEOGRAPHY AND AMIDST GEN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE...HOWEVER OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TOO
MRGL/ISOLATED FOR WW ATTM. STILL...THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND/OR
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST IS NONZERO...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER EARLY-MID MORNING WITH SLOW SHIFT EWD OVER AREA.

FURTHERMORE...MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA APPEARS TO
HAVE BEGUN ITS EWD TURN AS PROGGED. AS RELATED FIELDS OF MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION SHIFT EWD...LAPSE RATES AWAY FROM ANTECEDENT TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...FROM W-E...WHILE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MAINTAINED. AS SUCH...HAIL WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE ON EITHER SIDE OF SFC FRONT...SIZES BEING
PRIMARILY SUBSEVERE TO ISOLATED MRGL-SVR BASED ON SOUNDING ANALOGS
AND OUTPUT FROM 2-D HAIL MODEL.

1130Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
CENTRAL/NRN LA SWWD THROUGH INFLECTION POINT OVER HOUSTON/WALKER
COUNTIES TX...CORRESPONDING CLOSELY TO MESOCYCLONE OF POTENTIALLY
SVR TSTM THERE. FRONT EFFECTIVELY HAS BEEN SHUNTED SOUTHWARD BY
CUMULATIVE OUTFLOW FARTHER SW...PRODUCED BY INCREASINGLY DENSE BAND
OF TSTMS...AND WAS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS GRIMES/COLORADO/KARNES
COUNTIES. FRONT THEN ARCHED THROUGH WAVE LOW THAT HAS MOVED ENEWD
FROM MEX...TO NEAR COT. EXPECT MOST OF FRONT TO SHIFT SEWD THROUGH
REMAINDER MORNING TOWARD COAST...AIDED ON MESOBETA SCALE BY TSTM
OUTFLOW. THIS WILL SHRINK THAT PORTION OF WARM SECTOR CONTAINING
EFFECTIVELY SFC-BASED PARCELS...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 250
J/KG OVER SWRN LA TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG MIDDLE TX COAST.
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SRH EACH HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE 07Z IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAKENING/VEERING
OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT STILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCNL SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION. STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POTENTIAL FOR A
TORNADO SHOULD BE INVOF FRONT. WITH WEAK CINH...EXPECT OVERALL
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE TO CONTINUE. WITH TIME...THIS WILL
FURTHER COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODES...WITH CLUSTERED AND
QUASI-LINEAR STRUCTURES BECOMING MORE PREVALENT.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28209705 28379755 28999920 29789965 30309899 30379742
31009546 31199315 30919238 29989336 29509449 29359475
29269476 28899534 28389635 28319638 28199666 28209705

KHGX [091111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 091111
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 NE BRYAN 30.79N 96.22W
01/09/2012 BRAZOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES BLOWN DOWN NEAR OSR AND FOUNTAIN SWISS RD IN NE
BRAZOS COUNTY.

KEWX [091032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 091032
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
431 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 AM HAIL 5 NE PFLUGERVILLE 30.49N 97.56W
01/09/2012 E0.50 INCH TRAVIS TX COCORAHS

MINOR LEAF DAMAGE... COVERED GROUND WITH A SINGLE
LAYER.

EVENT NUMBER EWX1200001

JDS

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090947
SWOD48
SPC AC 090946

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF DAY 6 /SAT. JAN. 14/...AFTER WHICH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE UPPER PATTERN BEGIN TO EMERGE -- INITIALLY OVER THE WRN
STATES. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS WELL FORECAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEWD SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS REINFORCING FRONT -- FOLLOWING AN INITIAL
FRONT LIKELY TO HAVE PASSED MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- WILL CROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 4 /THU. JAN.
12/...LIKELY VACATING EVEN S FL BY EARLY DAY 5. WITH A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS HAVING FILTERED IN BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...EVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND/STRONGER BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN
PERSISTENT/COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.

..GOSS.. 01/09/2012

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090832
SWODY3
SPC AC 090830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WEAKENS...A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS THE
N CENTRAL CONUS -- BRINGING WITH IT A REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIR. ELSEWHERE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER/DRIFT S OFF THE CA COAST.

...CENTRAL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL/SWRN GA...
AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION HEADED TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...SOME LINGERING THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS -- AND THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO -- MAY EXIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NWD INTO ADJACENT SERN AL/SWRN GA.
HERE...SELY FLOW OFF THE ERN GULF SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH INLAND FLUX OF
GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...UNTIL THE
FRONT SHIFTS EWD AND SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE MORE FROM THE FL
PENINSULA RATHER THAN THE ERN GULF -- THUS LIMITING THE THREAT
FARTHER E.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES E OF THE APPALACHIANS...ESELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF STREAM MAY ALLOW MEAGER CAPE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS -- MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD. AS
THIS INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR COMBINES WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 01/09/2012

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007

ACUS11 KWNS 090730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090729
LAZ000-TXZ000-091000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 090729Z - 091000Z

MRGL SVR THREAT EXISTS OVER DISCUSSION AREA...INITIALLY FROM SMALL
SUPERCELLS IN WARM SECTOR OR ALONG FRONT DESCRIBED BELOW. ALTHOUGH
LOW-PROBABILITY IN NATURE...PER 01Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANALYZED 6Z SFC CHART SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM
PROBABLE LOW OVER DATA VOID OF ERN COAHUILA...ENEWD OVER SRN
MAVERICK COUNTY...ACROSS SRN FRINGES SAT METRO AREA...TO NEAR
UTS...LFK AND NWRN LA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH MINIMAL CINH FOR SFC DEW
POINTS MID 60S F...EXTENDING FROM THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SWD OVER
MIDDLE-UPPER COAST. CINH INCREASES SWWD FROM MIDDLE COAST TOWARD
RIO GRANDE BECAUSE OF STRONGER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CINH ALSO
INCREASES IN LOWER-THETAE ENVIRONMENT S OF BOUNDARY OVER WRN LA AND
E-CENTRAL TX...AND OF COURSE NW OF FRONT. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME SWD
TRANSLATION OVER RIO GRANDE WITH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
SLOWLY ENEWD FROM MEX. NET RESULT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE
AIR MASS OVER MID-UPPER COASTAL PLAIN WHERE WEAK WAA OFFSETS WEAK
DIABATIC SFC COOLING...MLCAPE REMAINS IN 500-1200 J/KG RANGE.
INVERSION LAYER NEAR 700 MB APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING BASED ON RECENT
INCREASE IN LTG PRODUCTION FROM CELLS IN THIS AREA.
KINEMATICALLY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE ROTATION
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-55 KT AND 0-1 KM AGL SRH 100-200
J/KG...BASED ON SFC-MODIFIED LDB PROFILER DATA AND RUC HODOGRAPHS.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL WILL BEGIN FROM W-E
LATER...FROM ABOUT 09Z ONWARD...AS PLUME OF COOLING/ASCENT ALOFT
SPREADS OVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF MID-UPPER LOW NOW APPARENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA.

..EDWARDS.. 01/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28109678 28179784 29179791 31299476 31109429 30469381
29699387 29679405 29389474 29279472 28709568 28439637
28319638 28109678

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090700
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
EWD ACROSS E TX AND LA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FASTER GFS MOVES
THIS FEATURE AS FAR E AS THE AL/MS BORDER BY 11/12Z...WHILE THE NAM
CENTERS THE FEATURE AT THIS TIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE
LA/MS BORDER -- ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE GFS LOW -- AND PARTICULARLY THE COLD FRONT --
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE
NAM. IN ANY CASE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE THUNDER/SEVERE THREAT OVER THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE/DROP SWD JUST
OFF THE CA COAST...WHILE A MUCH FASTER W-E PROGRESSION OF FEATURES
IS EVIDENT IN THE NRN STREAM -- WITH ONE TROUGH VACATING THE NERN
CONUS AND A SECOND DIGGING ESEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS -- AND LIKELY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- WILL BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WHILE MEAGER CAPE IS EXPECTED...SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AHEAD OF THE SABINE RIVER AREA SURFACE LOW
SUGGEST LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE ONGOING.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT APPRECIABLE CAPE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ATOP THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...ASSOCIATED CAPE/SHEAR INCREASE SUGGESTS A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY -- AND THUS A GREATER
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WHILE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK
FROM SERN LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SWRN AL AND INTO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

..GOSS.. 01/09/2012

KJAN [090546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 090546
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1146 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2012