SWODY2
SPC AC 090658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY
EWD ACROSS E TX AND LA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FASTER GFS MOVES
THIS FEATURE AS FAR E AS THE AL/MS BORDER BY 11/12Z...WHILE THE NAM
CENTERS THE FEATURE AT THIS TIME OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG THE
LA/MS BORDER -- ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE...WITH THE GFS LOW -- AND PARTICULARLY THE COLD FRONT --
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE
NAM. IN ANY CASE...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE THUNDER/SEVERE THREAT OVER THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...A NEW CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE/DROP SWD JUST
OFF THE CA COAST...WHILE A MUCH FASTER W-E PROGRESSION OF FEATURES
IS EVIDENT IN THE NRN STREAM -- WITH ONE TROUGH VACATING THE NERN
CONUS AND A SECOND DIGGING ESEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE N CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS -- AND LIKELY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- WILL BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR EWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WHILE MEAGER CAPE IS EXPECTED...SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AHEAD OF THE SABINE RIVER AREA SURFACE LOW
SUGGEST LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE ONGOING.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT APPRECIABLE CAPE INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SPREAD ATOP THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...ASSOCIATED CAPE/SHEAR INCREASE SUGGESTS A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY -- AND THUS A GREATER
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WHILE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS OF GREATEST THREAT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK
FROM SERN LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SWRN AL AND INTO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE.
..GOSS.. 01/09/2012
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