NWUS56 KHNX 280356
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
856 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0813 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWISSELMAN 35.36N 119.82W
10/27/2013 M38.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET
CORRECTED. MEASURED AT TWMC1 RAWS.
&&
$$
BPET
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Sunday, October 27, 2013
KHNX [280354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KHNX 280354
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
854 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PANOCHE ROAD 36.73N 120.48W
10/27/2013 M45.00 MPH FRESNO CA MESONET
MEASURED AT PCEC1 RAWS.
0602 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LOS BANOS 37.06N 120.83W
10/27/2013 M45.00 MPH MERCED CA MESONET
MEASURED AT SLRC1 RAWS.
0813 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWISSELMAN 35.36N 119.82W
10/27/2013 M36.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET
MEASURED AT TWMC1 RAWS.
0816 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 S AVENAL 35.78N 120.11W
10/27/2013 M36.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET
MEASURED AT AU172 APRS, SUNFLOWER VALLEY.
&&
$$
BPET
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LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
854 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PANOCHE ROAD 36.73N 120.48W
10/27/2013 M45.00 MPH FRESNO CA MESONET
MEASURED AT PCEC1 RAWS.
0602 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LOS BANOS 37.06N 120.83W
10/27/2013 M45.00 MPH MERCED CA MESONET
MEASURED AT SLRC1 RAWS.
0813 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TWISSELMAN 35.36N 119.82W
10/27/2013 M36.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET
MEASURED AT TWMC1 RAWS.
0816 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 S AVENAL 35.78N 120.11W
10/27/2013 M36.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET
MEASURED AT AU172 APRS, SUNFLOWER VALLEY.
&&
$$
BPET
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 280054
SWODY1
SPC AC 280052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS -- BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM -- SHIFT
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF NOAM OVERNIGHT...A WRN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND AS IT DIGS SWD INTO CA AND NV THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE OCCURRING ATTM JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE -- IN A BAND FROM NRN
CA ENEWD INTO SRN ID...BUT EXPECT LIGHTNING TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
/LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE/ THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WITH SPORADIC/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
THE LA/MS/AL VICINITY NEAR AN EWD-MOVING TROUGH IN THE SRN
STREAM...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE VICINITY NEAR A
WEAKER/PROGRESSING VORT MAX. AS IS THE CASE FARTHER W...LIGHTNING
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 10% THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION OF AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
..GOSS.. 10/28/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 280052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS -- BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM -- SHIFT
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF NOAM OVERNIGHT...A WRN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND AS IT DIGS SWD INTO CA AND NV THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE OCCURRING ATTM JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE -- IN A BAND FROM NRN
CA ENEWD INTO SRN ID...BUT EXPECT LIGHTNING TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
/LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE/ THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WITH SPORADIC/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
THE LA/MS/AL VICINITY NEAR AN EWD-MOVING TROUGH IN THE SRN
STREAM...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE VICINITY NEAR A
WEAKER/PROGRESSING VORT MAX. AS IS THE CASE FARTHER W...LIGHTNING
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE 10% THRESHOLD FOR INCLUSION OF AN
OUTLOOK AREA.
..GOSS.. 10/28/2013
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KTFX [272356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 272356
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
10/27/2013 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
UTTECH
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E MARYSVILLE 46.73N 112.16W
10/27/2013 M50 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
UTTECH
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KTFX [272356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 272356
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
10/27/2013 M53 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SIEBEN FLAT DOT SITE
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
556 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
10/27/2013 M53 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
SIEBEN FLAT DOT SITE
&&
$$
EMANUEL
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KMSO [272339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KMSO 272339
LSRMSO
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
539 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0538 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROLLINS 47.91N 114.16W
10/27/2013 E63 MPH LAKE MT PUBLIC
MEASURED ON LAKE BUOY NON-TSTM WND GST
0535 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLUMBIA FALLS 48.37N 114.18W
10/27/2013 E62 MPH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC
MEASURED NON-TSTM WND GST
&&
$$
NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRMSO
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
539 PM MDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0538 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROLLINS 47.91N 114.16W
10/27/2013 E63 MPH LAKE MT PUBLIC
MEASURED ON LAKE BUOY NON-TSTM WND GST
0535 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLUMBIA FALLS 48.37N 114.18W
10/27/2013 E62 MPH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC
MEASURED NON-TSTM WND GST
&&
$$
NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM
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KMFR [272210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 272210
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0306 PM DUST STORM 2 SW MACDOEL 41.81N 122.03W
10/27/2013 SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND BLOWING DUST.
ZERO VISIBILITY ON OLD STATE HWY AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ON HWY 97 N OF MACDOEL.
&&
$$
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
309 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0306 PM DUST STORM 2 SW MACDOEL 41.81N 122.03W
10/27/2013 SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND BLOWING DUST.
ZERO VISIBILITY ON OLD STATE HWY AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ON HWY 97 N OF MACDOEL.
&&
$$
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
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KMFR [272207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KMFR 272207
LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
306 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM DUST STORM TULELAKE 41.95N 121.47W
10/27/2013 SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A
MILE OR LESS DUE TO BLOWING SAND AND DUST
ALONG ROAD FROM DORRIS TO TULELAKE. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
$$
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRMFR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
306 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM DUST STORM TULELAKE 41.95N 121.47W
10/27/2013 SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTING VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A
MILE OR LESS DUE TO BLOWING SAND AND DUST
ALONG ROAD FROM DORRIS TO TULELAKE. WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
&&
$$
NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 271925
SWODY1
SPC AC 271922
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER FROM SRN TX AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER DEEP S TX...WARM AIR ALOFT WITH WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB
AS WELL AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CHARACTER OF THE CU ON VISIBLE FURTHER
REINFORCES THE IDEA OF THE 700 MB WARM LAYER SUPPRESSING
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL
LA WHERE SOME HEATING IS TAKING PLACE AND SHALLOW SHOWERS
EXIST...ANY THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY MON.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 271922
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER FROM SRN TX AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER DEEP S TX...WARM AIR ALOFT WITH WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB
AS WELL AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CHARACTER OF THE CU ON VISIBLE FURTHER
REINFORCES THE IDEA OF THE 700 MB WARM LAYER SUPPRESSING
DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL
LA WHERE SOME HEATING IS TAKING PLACE AND SHALLOW SHOWERS
EXIST...ANY THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY MON.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
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KFWD [271922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 271922
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
222 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W MARLIN 31.30N 96.97W
10/26/2013 FALLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
222 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W MARLIN 31.30N 96.97W
10/26/2013 FALLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
MULTIPLE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.
$$
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KFWD [271916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 271916
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0405 PM HAIL EASTLAND 32.40N 98.82W
10/26/2013 M2.50 INCH EASTLAND TX PUBLIC
NEAR TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL IN EASTLAND
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
216 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0405 PM HAIL EASTLAND 32.40N 98.82W
10/26/2013 M2.50 INCH EASTLAND TX PUBLIC
NEAR TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL IN EASTLAND
$$
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KFWD [271915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 271915
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 PM TSTM WND DMG BELTON 31.07N 97.47W
10/26/2013 BELL TX PUBLIC
MULTIPLE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN BELTON INCLUDING A VERY
LARGE LIVE OAK.
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 PM TSTM WND DMG BELTON 31.07N 97.47W
10/26/2013 BELL TX PUBLIC
MULTIPLE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN BELTON INCLUDING A VERY
LARGE LIVE OAK.
$$
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 271732
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN
KS...NWRN OK...AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SINK SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER JET MAX EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO AZ/NM. PRECEDING THIS
SLOW MOVING TROUGH/LOW...NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL
EXIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS...WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
S OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM WRN KS ALONG I-70.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S F
TO LOWER 60S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS FROM SWRN KS INTO TX...WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TX. HEATING NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS KS.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AND NEAR
ZERO CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGLY VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE SUBTLE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL
FURTHER FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...A FEW CELLS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL PERHAPS UP TO 2.00 - 3.00 DIAMETER...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET
AND ENLARGED LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO 03Z WHEN STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN...AND PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR E INTO THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN KS...FAR NERN OK AND SRN NEB DURING THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY FAVOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 271730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN
KS...NWRN OK...AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SINK SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER JET MAX EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO AZ/NM. PRECEDING THIS
SLOW MOVING TROUGH/LOW...NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL
EXIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS...WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
S OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM WRN KS ALONG I-70.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S F
TO LOWER 60S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS FROM SWRN KS INTO TX...WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TX. HEATING NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS KS.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AND NEAR
ZERO CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGLY VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE SUBTLE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL
FURTHER FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...A FEW CELLS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL PERHAPS UP TO 2.00 - 3.00 DIAMETER...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET
AND ENLARGED LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO 03Z WHEN STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN...AND PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR E INTO THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN KS...FAR NERN OK AND SRN NEB DURING THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY FAVOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 271626
SWODY1
SPC AC 271625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY MON.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 271625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY MON.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/27/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 271618
SWODY1
SPC AC 271616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 271616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.
WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.
...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.
FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.
...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/27/2013
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KHGX [271324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 271324
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0822 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 E BAYOU VISTA 29.36N 94.73W
10/27/2013 M53 MPH GMZ355 TX PORTS
GALVESTON BAY NORTH JETTY REPORTED WIND GUST OF 46KTS
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300198
$$
39
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0822 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 E BAYOU VISTA 29.36N 94.73W
10/27/2013 M53 MPH GMZ355 TX PORTS
GALVESTON BAY NORTH JETTY REPORTED WIND GUST OF 46KTS
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300198
$$
39
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 271247
SWODY1
SPC AC 271244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER ERN
CONUS EARLY IN PERIOD...THOUGH RELATED SYNOPTIC TROUGHING SHOULD
DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER ARKLATEX
REGION EXHIBITS PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL-E
TX. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM KY TO SW TX WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND AS GREATER CONTRIBUTION TO
REGIONAL BAROCLINICITY CONTINUES TO ARISE FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES.
MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER BC -- IS FCST TO EXPERIENCE INTENSE AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH PERIOD AS IT DIGS SWD ACROSS NWRN CONUS. NET RESULT BY 12Z
SHOULD BE LARGE...CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN NV...WITH
RELATED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF WRN CONUS FROM ROCKIES WWD.
STG DCVA AND WAA WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...WITHIN REGIME OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MRGL
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LOW-CAPE
CONVECTION APCHG ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG PRODUCTION. AS
SUCH...A FEW LTG STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS BROAD
SWATH OF CENTRAL/NRN GREAT BASIN REGION OR SRN ID.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND COVERAGE/DURATION
OF ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEAR TOO SPARSE TO ASSIGN SPECIFIC AREA OF
AOA 10% TSTM RISK ATTM.
...MID-SOUTH/DELTA REGION...S TX...
MCS WITH EMBEDDED STG TSTMS IS EVIDENT FROM UPPER TX COAST WNWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...AND IS PRECEDED BY SERIES OF GUST
FRONTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. WHILE ISOLATED GUSTS
APCHG SVR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES ATTM...GIVEN
1. OFFSHORE MOTION OF MOST INTENSE PART ONGOING...
2. DEPARTURE OF MID-UPPER WAVE AWAY FROM AREA...LEADING TO HEIGHT
RISES AND WEAKENING OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR...AND
3. CONTINUED ADVECTION FROM MEX PLATEAU OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR
CAPPING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL FORTIFY THAT CONTRIBUTION TO
CINH. STABLE LAYERS ALOFT WERE EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS FROM
LCH...CRP...BRO AND DRT.
STILL...THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTN ALONG RESULTING
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...UNTIL BOUNDARY BECOMES TO
WEAK/SHALLOW TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT.
FARTHER N...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN...IN REGIME OF DCVA...WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING
AND MRGL LOW-LEVEL THETAE PRECEDING MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GEN
TSTM AREA HAS BEEN BIFURCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES...WHERE
COMBINATION OF DRY-SLOTTING/STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL.
..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 271244
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER ERN
CONUS EARLY IN PERIOD...THOUGH RELATED SYNOPTIC TROUGHING SHOULD
DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER ARKLATEX
REGION EXHIBITS PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL-E
TX. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY TO AL AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE FROM KY TO SW TX WILL LOSE
DEFINITION AS UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND AS GREATER CONTRIBUTION TO
REGIONAL BAROCLINICITY CONTINUES TO ARISE FROM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES.
MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER BC -- IS FCST TO EXPERIENCE INTENSE AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH PERIOD AS IT DIGS SWD ACROSS NWRN CONUS. NET RESULT BY 12Z
SHOULD BE LARGE...CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NERN NV...WITH
RELATED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF WRN CONUS FROM ROCKIES WWD.
STG DCVA AND WAA WILL PRECEDE THIS SYSTEM...WITHIN REGIME OF
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS. STEEPENED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MRGL
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LOW-CAPE
CONVECTION APCHG ICING LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG PRODUCTION. AS
SUCH...A FEW LTG STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS BROAD
SWATH OF CENTRAL/NRN GREAT BASIN REGION OR SRN ID.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND COVERAGE/DURATION
OF ANY THUNDER THREAT APPEAR TOO SPARSE TO ASSIGN SPECIFIC AREA OF
AOA 10% TSTM RISK ATTM.
...MID-SOUTH/DELTA REGION...S TX...
MCS WITH EMBEDDED STG TSTMS IS EVIDENT FROM UPPER TX COAST WNWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TX...AND IS PRECEDED BY SERIES OF GUST
FRONTS PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS. WHILE ISOLATED GUSTS
APCHG SVR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES ATTM...GIVEN
1. OFFSHORE MOTION OF MOST INTENSE PART ONGOING...
2. DEPARTURE OF MID-UPPER WAVE AWAY FROM AREA...LEADING TO HEIGHT
RISES AND WEAKENING OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR...AND
3. CONTINUED ADVECTION FROM MEX PLATEAU OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR
CAPPING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL FORTIFY THAT CONTRIBUTION TO
CINH. STABLE LAYERS ALOFT WERE EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS FROM
LCH...CRP...BRO AND DRT.
STILL...THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTN ALONG RESULTING
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...UNTIL BOUNDARY BECOMES TO
WEAK/SHALLOW TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE LIFT.
FARTHER N...WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTN...IN REGIME OF DCVA...WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING
AND MRGL LOW-LEVEL THETAE PRECEDING MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GEN
TSTM AREA HAS BEEN BIFURCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES...WHERE
COMBINATION OF DRY-SLOTTING/STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL.
..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 10/27/2013
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KHGX [270956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 270956
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0443 AM HAIL 5 NW BRENHAM 30.21N 96.46W
10/27/2013 E0.75 INCH WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 36.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300197
$$
BLOOD
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0443 AM HAIL 5 NW BRENHAM 30.21N 96.46W
10/27/2013 E0.75 INCH WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 36.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300197
$$
BLOOD
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 270912
SWOD48
SPC AC 270911
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK
...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/THURSDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 270911
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK
...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/THURSDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 270901
SWOD48
SPC AC 270900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/FRIDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 270900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/FRIDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 270737
SWODY3
SPC AC 270736
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...ACCENTUATED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /FOR THE SEASON/ ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOURCE REGION AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD-EXPANSION ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AND THE GENERAL POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPSTREAM ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH. OF NOTE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FEATURES A
FASTER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH AS
COMPARED TO THE MORE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THESE
DIFFERENCES INFLUENCE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE A LATER/MORE
NOCTURNAL RISK PER THE 00Z NAM/ECWMF VERSUS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK-HEATING WITH THE
EARLIER-TIMED 00Z GFS.
REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS CONSIDERABLE...AND MASS CONVERGENCE MAY
REMAIN MODEST INTO EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST. THIS WOULD
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...OR MORE CERTAINLY BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCES THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 270736
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...ACCENTUATED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /FOR THE SEASON/ ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOURCE REGION AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD-EXPANSION ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AND THE GENERAL POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPSTREAM ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH. OF NOTE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FEATURES A
FASTER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH AS
COMPARED TO THE MORE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THESE
DIFFERENCES INFLUENCE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE A LATER/MORE
NOCTURNAL RISK PER THE 00Z NAM/ECWMF VERSUS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK-HEATING WITH THE
EARLIER-TIMED 00Z GFS.
REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS CONSIDERABLE...AND MASS CONVERGENCE MAY
REMAIN MODEST INTO EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST. THIS WOULD
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...OR MORE CERTAINLY BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCES THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 270732
SWODY3
SPC AC 270730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...ACCENTUATED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /FOR THE SEASON/ ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOURCE REGION AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD-EXPANSION ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AND THE GENERAL POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPSTREAM ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH. OF NOTE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FEATURES A
FASTER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH AS
COMPARED TO THE MORE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THESE
DIFFERENCES INFLUENCE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE A LATER/MORE
NOCTURNAL RISK PER THE 00Z NAM/ECWMF VERSUS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK-HEATING WITH THE 00Z
GFS.
REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS CONSIDERABLE...AND MASS CONVERGENCE MAY
REMAIN MODEST INTO EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST. THIS WOULD MAIN
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...OR MORE CERTAINLY BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCES THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 270730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...ACCENTUATED BY AN INCREASINGLY EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST STATES. THE INFLUENCES OF THIS
TROUGH COINCIDENT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /FOR THE SEASON/ ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDDLE MS VALLEY...INCLUDING A RISK FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
INFLUENCED BY LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOURCE REGION AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD-EXPANSION ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF A SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE ADJACENT LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY.
THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY AND THE GENERAL POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPSTREAM ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH. OF NOTE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS FEATURES A
FASTER/MORE EASTWARD SOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH AS
COMPARED TO THE MORE SIMILAR 00Z ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THESE
DIFFERENCES INFLUENCE THE SPATIAL/TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF THE
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD GENERALLY BE A LATER/MORE
NOCTURNAL RISK PER THE 00Z NAM/ECWMF VERSUS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
POSSIBLE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR PEAK-HEATING WITH THE 00Z
GFS.
REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE TO THE EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...WITH STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS CONSIDERABLE...AND MASS CONVERGENCE MAY
REMAIN MODEST INTO EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED-TYPE SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST. THIS WOULD MAIN
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...OR MORE CERTAINLY BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
INFLUENCES THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
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