WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61

WWUS20 KWNS 260354
SEL1
SPC WW 260354
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-261100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 61
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DURANT OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES EAST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT TO THE N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM SFC LOW OVER N-CNTRL TX ESEWD INTO NRN LA. THE COMBINATION OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WHILE A BRIEF
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

...MEAD

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KCYS [260316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260316
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
916 PM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0913 PM SNOW 10 N CHEYENNE 41.29N 104.79W
03/25/2011 M2.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0913 PM SNOW MEDICINE BOW 41.90N 106.20W
03/25/2011 M0.2 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0913 PM SNOW SARATOGA 41.45N 106.81W
03/25/2011 M0.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW MELTED ON THE GROUND.

0913 PM SNOW WHEATLAND 42.05N 104.96W
03/25/2011 M0.0 INCH PLATTE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW MELTED AS IT FELL ON THE GROUND.

0913 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
03/25/2011 M0.2 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [260256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 260256
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
856 PM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
03/25/2011 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL, ELV. 8440, SWE 0.1 WITH 10-1
RATIO USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 19 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.10N 107.13W
03/25/2011 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

DIVIDE PEAK SNOTEL, ELV. 8880, SWE 0.3 WITH 10-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 35 S RAWLINS 41.28N 107.23W
03/25/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SAGE CREEK SNOTEL, ELV.7850, SWE 0.4 WITH 10-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 17 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.03N 107.03W
03/25/2011 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SANDSTONE RANGERS STATION, ELV. 8150, SWE 0.4 WITH 10-1
RATIO USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 10 WSW ENCAMPMENT 41.15N 106.97W
03/25/2011 E6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

OLD BATTLE SNOTEL, ELV. 10000, SWE 0.5 WITH 12-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 5 SW ENCAMPMENT 41.16N 106.86W
03/25/2011 E3.6 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

WEBBER SPRINGS SNOTEL, ELV. 9250, SWE 0.3 WITH 12-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 12 WNW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.32W
03/25/2011 E1.2 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL, ELV. 10130, SWE 0.1 WITH 12-1
RATIO USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
03/25/2011 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SAND LAKE SNOTEL, ELV. 10050, SWE 0.1 WITH 15-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
03/25/2011 E1.5 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

BROOKLYN LAKE SNOTEL, ELV. 10240, SWE 0.1 WITH 15-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

0700 PM SNOW 6 SW CENTENNIAL 41.24N 106.19W
03/25/2011 E2.4 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL, ELV. 9574, SWE 0.2 WITH 12-1 RATIO
USED, TOTALS FOR NOON TO 7 PM MDT.

&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KCHS [260124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 260124
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0923 PM WILDFIRE 6 WSW DORCHESTER 33.11N 80.49W
03/25/2011 M1247 ACRE DORCHESTER SC FOREST SERVICE

WILDFIRE UPDATE...FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY
COMMISSION...THE SAND RIDGE FIRE NEAR DORCHESTER IS 100
PERCENT CONTAINED BUT NOT CONTROLLED. 67 STRUCTURES
SAVED...52 HOMES...13 BARNS AND LARGE STRUCTURES AND 2
CHURCHES. TOTAL ACREAGE BURNED IS 1247 ACRES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100162

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260056
SWODY1
SPC AC 260055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX
TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PREVAILS OVER NORTH AMERICA IN MID-UPPER LEVELS. THIS
PATTERN FEATURES STG RIDGING FROM DAKOTAS NWD TO CANADIAN
ARCTIC...CYCLONES OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION AND OFFSHORE PAC
NW...AND BROAD FETCH OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM CA EWD OVER MUCH OF
ATLANTIC COAST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER UT -- IS FCST TO CROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z.

AS THIS OCCURS...SFC LOW ANALYZED AT 23Z NEAR LHX IS FCST TO
MOVE/REDEVELOP SEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE TO NEAR CDS...THEN EWD ALONG
FRONT AND ACROSS SWRN OK BY 12Z...PERHAPS MERGING WITH TRIPLE-POINT
LOW NOW ANALYZED INVOF ADM. WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM
SRN OK LOW ESEWD TO NEAR TXK...EWD ACROSS SRN TIER OF AR COUNTIES
AND OVER N-CENTRAL MS. SOME PORTIONS OF FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NWD VERY SLOWLY...WITH OTHERS REMAINING/BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IN
SEGMENTS...GIVEN LACK OF AMBIENT FORCING FOR FRONTAL MOTION.

...SERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
INITIATION REMAINS POSSIBLE BEFORE 02Z...BUT THREAT REMAINS
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 272 FOR FULL
DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM RISK.

BULK OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL SHOULD BE AFTER 03Z...INCLUDING
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. IN ABSENCE
OF APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...MESOSCALE/THERMODYNAMIC AND
FRONTAL FACTORS WILL BE PRIMARY SUPPORTERS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS WHY PROBABILITIES REMAIN MAXIMIZED NEAR AND N
OF SFC FRONT. MOISTURE AND SHEAR IN LOW LEVELS EACH ARE FCST TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
DIMINISHES AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUE. LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY TO 25-35 KT RANGE...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE CONFLUENT AND CONVERGENT JUST ABOVE SFC.

GREAT MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS AND HIGH-RES PROGS ACCORDINGLY
DEVELOP TSTMS NEAR RED RIVER BEFORE 06Z...EXPANDING/MOVING EWD
ACROSS ARKLATEX...WITH HRRR BEING NOTABLE/PERSISTENT EXCEPTION
DURING PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS NEED TO DEVELOP
TO YIELD CORRIDOR CONCENTRATED SVR THREAT OVER THIS REGION...WITH
POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTING FOR MORE THAN THAT...THEREFORE OUTLOOK
LARGELY IS MAINTAINED EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENT ALONG PERIPHERY IN
DEFERENCE TO LATEST SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

...SRN KS TO WRN OZARKS...
SECONDARY/ELEVATED AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...PRIMARILY AFTER ABOUT 08Z. CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NWRN FRINGES OF SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IN THAT REGIME...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THETAE YIELDING LFC AROUND 850 MB...BENEATH
ROUGHLY 8.5 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE...YIELDING MUCAPE
1500-2000 J/KG OVER NERN OK THAT DIMINISHES BELOW 1000 J/KG NWWD
OVER S-CENTRAL KS WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL THETAE. STG MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO 50-65 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..EDWARDS.. 03/26/2011

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KMFR [260039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 260039
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
538 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
03/25/2011 M0.85 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

11PM TO 1130AM.

1130 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
03/25/2011 M0.9 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

11PM TO 1130AM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0272

ACUS11 KWNS 260031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260031
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SCNTRL/SERN OK...SWRN AR AND NWRN
LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260031Z - 260200Z

CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR A WW ISSUANCE ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN TX...
SCNTRL/SERN OK AND EWD TO SWRN AR/NWRN LA REMAINS CONDITIONAL BASED
ON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AVAILABLE WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE ONCE
INITIATION OCCURS. THUS...THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR GREATER REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPMENT AND THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH THIS EVENING.

...ANALYSIS AND THREATS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK /INVOF ADM/ WITH A DRY LINE TRAILING
SWWD /TO THE NW-W OF DALLAS-FT WORTH METROPLEX/ THROUGH SRN MONTAGUE
TO STEPHENS COUNTIES TX. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDED ESEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH EXTREME SERN OK TO FAR
SRN AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED MORE PERSISTENT AND LIKELY DEEPER CU/TCU
ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM WISE AND MONTAGUE COUNTIES TX TO LOVE COUNTY
OK...WITH A SECOND AREA OF GREATER CU FORMATION ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.

00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED A WEAK CAP REMAINS AROUND 700-800 MB WITH
MLCAPE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WHICH WAS SIMILAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN TX INTO NWRN LA COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. A STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH WITH THIS SOUNDING SUPPORTS SPLITTING
STORMS. GIVEN THE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WOULD
HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.

...STORM INITIATION POTENTIAL...
GIVEN THE WEAK CAP YET EVIDENT ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING AND OVERALL
WEAK UPPER FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION...STORM INITIATION IS
UNCERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH
THE RECENT RUNS OF THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL. TRENDS IN LOW LEVEL
FLOW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH WINDS OVER NWRN TX BEGINNING TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS AND MORE VEERED SSWLY WINDS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER.
THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES.

THUS...DESPITE THE MORE PERSISTENT CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT...STORM
INITIATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NERN TX/SERN OK WHEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO THIS
REGION RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF WAA/ASCENT AND MOISTENING. THESE
LATTER FACTORS WOULD SUPPORT BOTH A TORNADO THREAT AND HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

..PETERS.. 03/26/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33009843 33579774 34149706 34689671 34719614 34409434
33909252 33119219 32459262 32319420 32689739 33009843

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KBOI [260025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 260025
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
625 PM MDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 6 NNW CALDWELL 43.74N 116.72W
03/25/2011 E0.25 INCH CANYON ID COCORAHS

BB SIZE HAIL.

0418 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE ONTARIO 43.98N 116.91W
03/25/2011 U0.00 INCH PAYETTE ID DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FRUITLAND WEBCAMS SHOWED WATER COVERING MUCH OF THE
INTERCHANGE AT US-95 AND I-84. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED
0.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AT 1610 MDT IN PATCHES ALONG
US-95 BETWEEN MP 67-56 AND INTERSTATE 84 BETWEEN MP 2-4.

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S FRUITLAND 43.97N 116.92W
03/25/2011 U0.00 INCH PAYETTE ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

VEHICLE AND/OR PROPERTY DAMAGE BETWEEN MP 3-11 ON
INTERSTATE 84 AS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE HAIL MOVED INTO THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.

0515 PM HAIL 3 SSW NEW PLYMOUTH 43.92N 116.83W
03/25/2011 U0.25 INCH PAYETTE ID NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER RECEIVED REPORT OF 25 CAR PILE UP ON INTERSTATE
84 IN PAYETTE COUNTY DUE TO ICE /WHICH WAS PROBABLY HAIL
FROM A THUNDERSTORM WHICH CROSSED I-84 AROUND 1630 PM/.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KMFR [260024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 260024
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
524 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 N KENO 42.19N 121.91W
03/25/2011 M7.5 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

MIDNIGHT TO 3PM.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
03/25/2011 E2.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

330PM TO 330 PM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KLSX [252324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 252324
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW MEDORA 39.18N 90.14W
03/25/2011 M1.9 INCH MACOUPIN IL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRD

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KMFR [252310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 252310
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
410 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
03/25/2011 M1.35 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4PM TO 4PM.

&&

$$

GLASER

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KJAX [252246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 252246
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
646 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM WILDFIRE 3 ESE NICHOLLS 31.50N 82.59W
03/25/2011 BACON GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

THE SESSOMS COMMUNITY WILDFIRE HAS REACHED AN ESTIMATED
20,000 ACRES. THE FIRE IS ROUGHLY 40 PERCENT CONTAINED.

&&

$$

SHULER

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KSTO [252142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 252142
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
241 PM PDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 3 S REDDING 40.53N 122.36W
03/25/2011 E0.88 INCH SHASTA CA PUBLIC

LARGE HAIL, NICKEL SIZE. HAIL HAD VEHICLES ALMOST AT
STANDSTILL ON INTERSTATE 5 BETWEEN RIVERSIDE DRIVE AND
BECHELLI LANE. NUMEROUS VEHICLES ON THE SIDE AND MEDIAN
OF THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

CMATTHEWS

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KCHS [252111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252111
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
511 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0511 PM WILDFIRE 6 WSW DORCHESTER 33.11N 80.49W
03/25/2011 E1000 ACRE DORCHESTER SC FOREST SERVICE

WILDFIRE UPDATE...FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY
COMMISION...THE SAND RIDGE FIRE NEAR DORCHESTER IS 75
PERCENT CONTAINED. 40 HOMES SAVED AND NONE WERE LOST.
MOP-UP OPERATRIONS HAVE BEGUN. FIRE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME 100 PERCENT CONTAINED SOON. GREATER THAN 1000
ACRES HAVE BEEN BURNED. FINAL ACREAGE IS IN THE PROGESS
OF BEING DETERMINED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100161

$$

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KCHS [252108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 252108
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM WILDFIRE 5 NNE MCCLELLANVILLE 33.15N 79.43W
03/25/2011 M2600 ACRE CHARLESTON SC FOREST SERVICE

WILDFIRE UPDATE...FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA FORESTRY
COMMISION...THE WINDY FIRE IS 100 PERCENT CONTAINED. A
TOTAL OF 16 STRUCTURES LOST ALL NON-RESIDENCES. FINAL
FIRE ACREAGE IS 2600 ACRES BURNED. MOP-UP OPERATIONS
CONTINUE. FIRE IS PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE
SMOKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100160

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0271

ACUS11 KWNS 252044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252043
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SCNTRL/SERN OK...SWRN AR AND
EXTREME NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252043Z - 252315Z

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL/SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CHARACTER TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE REGION AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
PROBABLY BE DETRIMENTAL TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL
AFTER 23Z OR SO. THEREAFTER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND THE PRE-EXISTING WARM BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX NEAR SUNSET WHERE NRN-EXTENT
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES WILL EXIST.

SHOULD A STORM FORM...ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER
KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
A SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORM EVOLVING ALONG/N OF THE RED RIVER
NEAR A WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE HAIL RISK
WILL DOMINATE.

OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND/OR DEVELOP
ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT AS ELEVATED ENTITIES OVER ERN OK AND CNTRL
AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 03/25/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34999665 35109584 35109495 35009416 34809321 34549253
34199211 33739205 33259247 33019274 32869331 32869407
32989476 33099575 32989763 33939733 34999665

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