Monday, December 19, 2011

KTOP [192351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KTOP 192351
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
551 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM SNOW 2 NE ADA 39.17N 97.86W
12/19/2011 E3.0 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. ROADS ARE SLICK.


&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [192349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 192349
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
549 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM SNOW 7 SSW WAKEFIELD 39.13N 97.08W
12/19/2011 E3.0 INCH CLAY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. ROADS ARE SLICK.


&&

$$

BYRNE

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KDDC [192328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192328
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM BLIZZARD DIGHTON 38.48N 100.47W
12/19/2011 LANE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF LANE COUNTY AND THAT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING.


&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KEPZ [192325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 192325
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
424 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM SNOW CLOUDCROFT 32.96N 105.74W
12/19/2011 M6.5 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORT AT 400PM. HEAVY SNOW STILL
FALLING.


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100483

$$

LANEY

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KPUB [192312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192312
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM SNOW SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 M12.0 INCH BACA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING.

0405 PM SNOW 8 NE COLORADO CITY 38.03N 104.75W
12/19/2011 E3.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [192244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192244
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
343 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM SNOW 1 NNE WALSENBURG 37.63N 104.78W
12/19/2011 M2.5 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW FALLING AT THIS TIME WITH VISIBILITY 1/4 OF A
MILE


&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KDDC [192240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192240
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
440 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0437 PM BLIZZARD ELLIS 38.94N 99.56W
12/19/2011 ELLIS KS PUBLIC

2.0 INCH MEASURED SNOW AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4
MILE ON INTERSTATE 70


&&

$$

KSUGDEN

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KPUB [192240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192240
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM SNOW 5 WSW WALSENBURG 37.59N 104.87W
12/19/2011 M4.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [192229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 192229
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE GREAT SAND DUNES 37.73N 105.51W
12/19/2011 M52.00 MPH ALAMOSA CO OTHER FEDERAL

1128 AM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH. 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR.

1128 AM BLIZZARD LA JUNTA 37.98N 103.54W
12/19/2011 OTERO CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH AND GUSTS TO 36MPH. 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL AND STILL SNOWING.

1230 PM SNOW KIM 37.25N 103.35W
12/19/2011 M5.0 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1240 PM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO EMERGENCY MNGR

7 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED. VISIBILITY 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS. WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH.

1245 PM SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
12/19/2011 M3.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0100 PM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
12/19/2011 M2.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0208 PM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO EMERGENCY MNGR

9 INCHES MEASURED ON GROUND. DRIFTS 2 FEET. WINDS GUSTING
TO 50 MPH. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE.

0235 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
12/19/2011 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SW TRINIDAD 37.13N 104.56W
12/19/2011 M7.0 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0305 PM SNOW 2 N TRINIDAD 37.20N 104.51W
12/19/2011 M3.5 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 6 AM.


&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KEPZ [192227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 192227
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
327 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0219 PM SNOW 2 WSW WHITE SIGNAL 32.55N 108.40W
12/19/2011 M4.5 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100482

$$

GRZYWACZ

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KPUB [192218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192218
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM SNOW 2 N TRINIDAD 37.20N 104.51W
12/19/2011 M3.5 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 6 AM.


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [192206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192206
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SW TRINIDAD 37.13N 104.56W
12/19/2011 M7.0 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MW

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KICT [192205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 192205
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
405 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM SNOW 10 SE RUSSELL 38.79N 98.72W
12/19/2011 E2.0 INCH RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KED

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KGLD [192202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192202
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM SNOW 5 ESE GOVE 38.93N 100.40W
12/19/2011 E1.5 INCH GOVE KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KICT [192152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 192152
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM SNOW WALDO 39.12N 98.80W
12/19/2011 M0.5 INCH RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE-HALF INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.


&&

$$

KED

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KSGX [192148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 192148
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 SW MIRAMAR 32.84N 117.18W
12/19/2011 SAN DIEGO CA AIRPLANE PILOT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED BY PILOT NEAR MT. SOLEDAD AT AROUND
2000 FEET.


&&

$$

MMILLER

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KICT [192144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 192144
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM SNOW RUSSELL 38.89N 98.85W
12/19/2011 E1.5 INCH RUSSELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOWFALL ESTIMATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

KED

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KGLD [192143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192143
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0232 PM BLIZZARD 5 WSW RUSSELL SPRINGS 38.88N 101.26W
12/19/2011 LOGAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

GREATER THAN AN INCH ON GROUND SO FAR WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS REPORTED


&&

$$

JMARTIN

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KPUB [192136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192136
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
236 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
12/19/2011 M5.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KDDC [192119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 192119
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM SNOW DIGHTON 38.48N 100.47W
12/19/2011 E0.0 INCH LANE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THE LANE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED FULL BLOWN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN PROGRESS.


&&

$$

BURKE

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KICT [192112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 192112
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM SLEET ELLSWORTH 38.74N 98.23W
12/19/2011 E0.00 INCH ELLSWORTH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN HAS CHANGED TO ALL SLEET FOR TIME BEING.


&&

$$

KED

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KICT [192111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 192111
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM SNOW RUSSELL 38.89N 98.85W
12/19/2011 E0.0 INCH RUSSELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY SNOW FALLING AND ROADS SLUSHY WITH SEVERAL SLIDE
OFFS ACROSS THE COUNTY.


&&

$$

KED

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KPUB [192109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192109
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
209 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO EMERGENCY MNGR

9 INCHES MEASURED ON GROUND. DRIFTS 2 FEET. WINDS GUSTING
TO 50 MPH. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE.


&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KGLD [192100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192100
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW LEOTI 38.48N 101.36W
12/19/2011 E0.5 INCH WICHITA KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2379

ACUS11 KWNS 192058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192058
TXZ000-192300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 192058Z - 192300Z

A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO E CNTRL TX...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER TODAY.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A N/S BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM
WRN OK INTO TX...JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROFILES. THE 20 Z FWD SOUNDING DID INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 600 J/KG WITH A LARGE HODOGRAPH...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
LOWER PORTION IS BEING MADE INEFFECTIVE DUE TO A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS FAR N.

TO THE S...A NARROW AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTED FROM THE CNTRL TX COAST TOWARD
AUSTIN. HERE...RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY GROWING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. A LIGHTNING
STRIKE WAS RECENTLY NOTED WITH ACTIVITY S OF FT. WORTH.

CONTINUED FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH CELLS MAY FORM IN A LINEAR
FASHION ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN EVOLUTION
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY IN A MERGED LINE...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY OCCUR GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY SUPERCELL
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL STORM
MOTIONS WHICH WILL TEND TO MOVE THE STORMS AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 12/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 32119533 30789556 30139602 29679686 29649758 30049795
31129769 32179747 32829732 33309672 33349587 33149546
32639531 32119533

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KGLD [192051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192051
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM SNOW TRIBUNE 38.47N 101.75W
12/19/2011 E2.0 INCH GREELEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER ESTIMATES 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND. ROADS ARE SNOWPACKED.


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KGLD [192044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192044
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 PM BLIZZARD SHARON SPRINGS 38.89N 101.75W
12/19/2011 WALLACE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE IN SNOW WITHIN THE PAST FEW MINUTES.


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KGLD [192043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 192043
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM BLIZZARD TRIBUNE 38.47N 101.75W
12/19/2011 GREELEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS VISIBILITY LESS THEN ONE
QUARTER MILE IN SNOW. ESTIMATED SNOW DEPTH 2 INCHES.


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KBOU [192032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 192032
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
132 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM FREEZING RAIN LIMON 39.27N 103.69W
12/19/2011 U0.00 INCH LINCOLN CO NWS EMPLOYEE

TWENTY TO THIRTY CARS OFF THE ROAD ON INTERSTATE 70
BETWEEN DEER TRAIL AND LIMON DUE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE


&&

$$

JK

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KPUB [192007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 192007
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
107 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW BEULAH 38.08N 104.98W
12/19/2011 M2.0 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191952
SWODY1
SPC AC 191950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST
TX...

CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...WITH FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS IN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE SUPPRESSED DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG AND INCREASING WIND FIELDS COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG OR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF TX.

..HART.. 12/19/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...

EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EPZ WILL TURN MORE NEWD THIS
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK FROM NRN MEXICO INTO NRN TX/ERN OK. THIS EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS /500 MB/ AOA 100 M
SPREADING FROM ERN NM/WRN TX INTO KS/OK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL OK BY 20/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK.

...SRN PLAINS...

SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO
WRN/CNTRL OK WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE-BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PACIFIC FRONT INVOF OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
NRN/CNTRL TX. HERE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE OFFSET TO A DEGREE BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RISING TO 500-1000 J/KG. BUT...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. ESRH OF 200-300 M2
PER S2 AND EBS OF 45-55 KT/...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN OK BENEATH MIDLEVEL
COLD CORE AND INVOF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW. HERE...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL...POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

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KPUB [191948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191948
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1248 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM SNOW 1 SSW RYE 37.91N 104.94W
12/19/2011 M3.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

RMG

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KPUB [191942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191942
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1241 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO EMERGENCY MNGR

7 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED. VISIBILITY 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS. WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH.


&&

$$

SHODANIS

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KPUB [191940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191940
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM SNOW KIM 37.25N 103.35W
12/19/2011 M5.0 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RMG

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KDDC [191846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 191846
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1246 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 PM SNOW ELKHART 37.00N 101.89W
12/19/2011 E1.0 INCH MORTON KS COUNTY OFFICIAL


&&

$$

06

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KPUB [191844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191844
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 AM BLIZZARD LA JUNTA 37.98N 103.54W
12/19/2011 OTERO CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH AND GUSTS TO 36MPH. 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL AND STILL SNOWING.


&&

$$

PJC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2378

ACUS11 KWNS 191843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191843
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE / WRN OK PANHANDLE /
SERN CO / SWRN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 191843Z - 192315Z

INITIALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HR WILL
BECOME LIKELY FIRST W OF 102 DEG LONGITUDE /I.E. CO/KS BORDER/ AND
THEN SPREAD INTO SWRN KS. LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL TEND
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL NM WITH A SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE LOW NEWD AND BISECTING THE
TX PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING INTO SWRN KS. APPRECIABLE SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES --NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING-- BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NLY WINDS AND COINCIDE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE POLEWARD/BACKSIDE SIDE OF THE EWD MIGRATING SURFACE CYCLONE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLUMN TO GRADUALLY COOL AND SUPPORT A PHASE
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX-OK PANHANDLES.

DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED OVER THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN TURN LEADS TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES /21-00Z/. THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
/THUNDERSNOW/ APPEARS TO INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z INVOF THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE. IT IS HERE...THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING AS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT MOVES N FROM THE TX S PLAINS AND ENCROACHES UPON THE TX-OK
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITY GUIDANCE AND
EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE /SSEO/ SHOW A SWATH OF 1
INCH/HR RATES FROM NE NM INTO SWRN KS /LOCALLY HEAVIEST NEAR THE 5
STATE BORDER REGION/. A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH TIME MAY YIELD INCREASING
COVERAGE OF LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..SMITH.. 12/19/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35100313 35320489 36510460 37790449 38410155 37260133
35100313

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KGLD [191830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 191830
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM BLIZZARD 12 S TRIBUNE 38.30N 101.79W
12/19/2011 GREELEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 1/4 MILE VIS AND WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS


&&

$$

BAS

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KPUB [191829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191829
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1129 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 AM BLIZZARD SPRINGFIELD 37.41N 102.62W
12/19/2011 BACA CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 MILE DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 32MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH. 2 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR.


&&

$$

PJC

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KAMA [191736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 191736
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 AM SNOW KENTON 36.90N 102.97W
12/19/2011 E2.0 INCH CIMARRON OK POST OFFICE


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1100532

$$

KJS

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KPUB [191717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191717
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1017 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE GREAT SAND DUNES 37.73N 105.51W
12/19/2011 M52 MPH ALAMOSA CO OTHER FEDERAL


&&

$$

PJC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191652
SWODY2
SPC AC 191650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MS/AL/TN...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO HELP TO
BEGIN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
NEXT AND STRONGER UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES AFTER DARK. COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF MS/AL/TN
WHERE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CO-EXIST. ISOLATED STRONG OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT OVER THIS AREA WITH A RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...OR A BRIEF TORNADO. THE LACK OF A MORE ROBUST RETURN OF
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

..HART.. 12/19/2011

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KPSR [191631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 191631
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
931 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM DENSE FOG 4 ESE TONOPAH 33.48N 112.87W
12/19/2011 E0.00 MILE MARICOPA AZ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

VERY DENSE FOG BETWEEN MM 77 AND 85 ALONG INTERSTATE 10


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1100015

$$

LEINS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191627
SWODY1
SPC AC 191625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EPZ WILL TURN MORE NEWD THIS
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK FROM NRN MEXICO INTO NRN TX/ERN OK. THIS EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS /500 MB/ AOA 100 M
SPREADING FROM ERN NM/WRN TX INTO KS/OK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO CNTRL OK BY 20/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL TX AND SWRN/S-CNTRL OK.

...SRN PLAINS...

SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO
WRN/CNTRL OK WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR SURFACE-BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PACIFIC FRONT INVOF OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF
NRN/CNTRL TX. HERE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE OFFSET TO A DEGREE BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RISING TO 500-1000 J/KG. BUT...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. ESRH OF 200-300 M2
PER S2 AND EBS OF 45-55 KT/...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED...LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN TX PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN OK BENEATH MIDLEVEL
COLD CORE AND INVOF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW. HERE...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL...POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/19/2011

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KSTO [191551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 191551
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
751 AM PST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 AM DENSE FOG 1 S LODI 38.10N 121.29W
12/19/2011 SAN JOAQUIN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LESS THAN 1/8 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTED BETWEEN LODI AND
STOCKTON.


&&

$$

SLH

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KPUB [191519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 191519
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
819 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW FOUNTAIN 38.70N 104.77W
12/19/2011 M53 MPH EL PASO CO AWOS

FORT CARSON.


&&

$$

PJC

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KEPZ [191451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 191451
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
750 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 AM SNOW 4 NW SILVER CITY 32.82N 108.32W
12/19/2011 M1.0 INCH GRANT NM COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100481

$$

TRIPOLI

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KEPZ [191448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 191448
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
748 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM SNOW 2 SW CLOUDCROFT 32.93N 105.76W
12/19/2011 M2.0 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100480

$$

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KEPZ [191438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 191438
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
738 AM MST MON DEC 19 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N FORT BLISS 31.90N 106.43W
12/19/2011 M54 MPH EL PASO TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100479

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191251
SWODY1
SPC AC 191249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAR W TX UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY
THIS EVE AND INTO SW KS TUE MORNING AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE IN SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN ARCS S ACROSS CA TO OFF THE NRN BAJA CA CST. SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE W TX SYSTEM SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND MOVE ENE INTO S CNTRL OK BY 12Z TUE. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW
SHOULD ADVANCE E INTO CNTRL TX BY THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR THE LA
BORDER EARLY TUE...SERVING AS FOCI FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR
STORMS.

...CNTRL AND E TX TODAY/TNGT...
50+ KT SLY LLJ WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF W TX UPR SYSTEM TODAY AND
TNGT...MAINTAINING NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND
WRN PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY. NEITHER SATELLITE NOR SFC DATA SHOW
PRESENCE OF ESPECIALLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR OVER THE NWRN GULF FOR THE
LLJ TO TAP. NEVERTHELESS...THE DATA DO SUGGEST THAT AHEAD OF
PACIFIC COLD FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 50S F AS
FAR N AS THE RED RIVER LATER TODAY. VALUES IN THE MID TO UPR 60S
APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN...WITH PW AOA 1.25
INCHES.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF W TX UPR
VORT...LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT...AND WEAK SFC
HEATING SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF AN ARC OF SFC TO NEAR SFC-BASED
TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY NWD TO N
CNTRL TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY
EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE AND CONTINUE E ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
EARLY EVE. OTHER...PERHAPS MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY FORM A BIT
LATER IN THE DAY OR THIS EVE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER
THE MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN E/NE TO NEAR THE CLL AREA.

AS THE UPR LOW CROSSES THE SRN PLAINS...A BAND OF 60 TO 80 KT SSW TO
SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR...YIELDING SHEAR/WIND
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE OVER N
TX...TEMPORAL BACKING OF MID LVL WINDS AND COMPARATIVELY WEAK LOW
LVL BUOYANCY /SBCAPE AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR THREATS
TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO FROM LINE SEGMENTS
CONTAINING EMBEDDED LEWPS/SMALL BOWS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE /WITH
VALUES AOA 1000 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED FARTHER S FROM CNTRL TX ESE TO
THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. WHILE WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION WILL BE
WEAKER RELATIVE TO POINTS N...ABSENCE OF TEMPORAL BACKING OF FLOW
AND PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY/WEAKER LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO DMGG WIND. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE CST
TNGT...AFFECTING AREA FROM PSX TO HOU/GLS.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY TUE AS UPR LOW
CONTINUES NE INTO KS AND FORCING/SHEAR WEAKEN OVER SE TX.

...NW TX/SW OK THIS AFTN...
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
TODAY OVER W CNTRL AND NW TX...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LEAD VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH W TX UPR LOW AND ON NW EDGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
AXIS. SFC HEATING OVER REGION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. BUT COMBINATION
OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY
YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL. THE ACTIVITY COULD REACH SW OK BY
LATE AFTN/EARLY TNGT. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING
COOL...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING THE OVERALL THREAT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 12/19/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190959
SWOD48
SPC AC 190958

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...

A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 4 BEFORE THE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME. GIVEN COMPLEX NATURE
OF PATTERN WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM
WAVES...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS REFLECTED BY
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5.

DAY 4...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE WRN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO TURN SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING
AS IT EJECTS THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS THURSDAY. THE
GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE UNDERGONE FURTHER MODIFICATION DUE TO
LACK OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT GULF MOISTURE
WILL ACCELERATE NWD AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF GULF
COAST STATES CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL IN PART DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF EJECTING
TROUGH AND HOW RAPIDLY IT UNDERGOES DEAMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL
AFFECT CYCLOGENESIS AND STRENGTH OF LLJ. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY TRANSPIRE OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO DELINEATE 30% SEVERE
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190818
SWODY3
SPC AC 190816

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT
EJECTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE NERN STATES
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER NRN MEXICO BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
ADVANCES SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT SWRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND EXTEND
SWWD THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

...SERN STATES...

A MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A TORNADO MAY PERSIST
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN AL INTO NWRN GA. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MOIST WARM
SECTOR AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE STRONGER FLOW AND LARGER HODOGRAPHS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY WHERE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT.

...TX...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PORTIONS OF SERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHERE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 190715
SWODY1
SPC AC 190713

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN THE FIRST AND LAST PARAGRAPHS

...CNTRL AND EAST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN SE AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TO NEWD ACROSS
WEST TX TODAY. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN...RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL
TX THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR DALLAS/FORTH WORTH SWD TO NEAR BRYAN-COLLEGE
STATION. THIS LINE SHOULD PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE HOUSTON AREA DURING THE EVENING.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...A 65 TO 80 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO
65 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 60S F
AS FAR NORTH AS DALLAS WITH UPPER 60S F LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
MOST CERTAIN. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHILE THE
CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A
LINE ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON UPON HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE SRN END OF THE LINE SHOULD AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA THIS
EVENING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK IN SE TX SUGGESTING
THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE ISOLATED THERE.

...NW TX/SW OK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
TX AT DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NWRN EDGE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TX THIS MORNING SHOW SOME CAPE
IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS THE AIR
MASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS CONVECTION
INITIATES JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT NW TX AND SW OK AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL WITH A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY SUFFICIENT TO
COVER THE THREAT.

..BROYLES/DEAN.. 12/19/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190702
SWODY2
SPC AC 190700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AREA...

..SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 2. CUTOFF LOW
OVER AZ HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD AS OF SUNDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY THEN
INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC
LOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

STRONG MIGRATORY SLY LLJ WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH 50S LIKELY FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. LIKELIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER SRN
HALF OF THE GULF COAST STATES. BASED ON FORECAST TRACK OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING TO
SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. BANDS OF STORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR EARLY TUESDAY FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED SECTOR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE GREATER INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
LARGEST HODOGRAPHS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND TN AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
REMOVED FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY TRANSPIRE IN CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL/NRN MS INTO SWRN TN AND
NWRN AL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190539
SWODY1
SPC AC 190537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX...

...CNTRL AND EAST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN SE AZ WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TO NEWD ACROSS
WEST TX TODAY. TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...A 45 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL STRENGTHEN...RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NWD INTO CNTRL
TX THIS AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WHERE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR DALLAS/FORTH WORTH SWD TO NEAR BRIAN-COLLEGE
STATION. THIS LINE SHOULD PERSIST EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING THE HOUSTON AREA DURING THE EVENING.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...A 65 TO 80 KT
MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT 00Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55 TO
65 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE LOWER 60S F
AS FAR NORTH AS DALLAS WITH UPPER 60S F LOCATED ALONG THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
MOST CERTAIN. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHILE THE
CONVECTION REMAINS DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A
LINE ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON UPON HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE IN CNTRL AND EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE SRN END OF THE LINE SHOULD AFFECT THE HOUSTON AREA THIS
EVENING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK IN SE TX SUGGESTING
THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MORE ISOLATED THERE.

...NW TX/SW OK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
TX AT DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE NWRN EDGE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TX THIS MORNING SHOW SOME CAPE
IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS THE
AIRMASS WARMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT AS CONVECTION
INITIATES JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT NW TX AND SW OK AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL WITH A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY SUFFICIENT TO
COVER THE THREAT.

..BROYLES/DEAN.. 12/19/2011

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