SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192058
TXZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CST MON DEC 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 192058Z - 192300Z
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL TO E CNTRL TX...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER TODAY.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A N/S BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWER FROM
WRN OK INTO TX...JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROFILES. THE 20 Z FWD SOUNDING DID INDICATE ELEVATED CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 600 J/KG WITH A LARGE HODOGRAPH...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
LOWER PORTION IS BEING MADE INEFFECTIVE DUE TO A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS FAR N.
TO THE S...A NARROW AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTED FROM THE CNTRL TX COAST TOWARD
AUSTIN. HERE...RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITIES
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY GROWING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION. A LIGHTNING
STRIKE WAS RECENTLY NOTED WITH ACTIVITY S OF FT. WORTH.
CONTINUED FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION...MAY EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH CELLS MAY FORM IN A LINEAR
FASHION ALONG THE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN EVOLUTION
INTO SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY IN A MERGED LINE...AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO MAY OCCUR GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY SUPERCELL
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL STORM
MOTIONS WHICH WILL TEND TO MOVE THE STORMS AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY.
..JEWELL.. 12/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 32119533 30789556 30139602 29679686 29649758 30049795
31129769 32179747 32829732 33309672 33349587 33149546
32639531 32119533
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