KIWX [220134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 220134
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
934 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM TSTM WND DMG WALKERTON 41.47N 86.48W
07/21/2011 ST. JOSEPH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN. ROADS NOW CLEAR.
POWER OUTAGES CONTINUE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101187

$$

SC

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KDDC [220133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220133
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.75W
07/21/2011 M60.00 MPH STANTON KS AWOS

&&

$$

RBURG

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KUNR [220131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 220131
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
731 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 9 SSE CREIGHTON 44.13N 102.17W
07/21/2011 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SSE CREIGHTON 44.13N 102.17W
07/21/2011 E70.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

DOUBLE PAIN WINDOWS BROKEN

0700 PM HAIL 10 ESE CREIGHTON 44.18N 102.04W
07/21/2011 E1.50 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 10 ESE CREIGHTON 44.18N 102.04W
07/21/2011 E60.00 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

GRAIN BIN AND AUGER BLOWN OVER MANY TREE BRANCHES BROKEN

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KMEG [220124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 220124
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
824 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM LIGHTNING OXFORD 34.36N 89.53W
07/21/2011 LAFAYETTE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE HOUSE FIRES WITH MINIMAL DAMAGE CAUSED BY LIGHTNING
STRIKE.

&&

$$

CML

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KDDC [220121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220121
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
821 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND GST W JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.75W
07/21/2011 M59.00 MPH STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KDDC [220111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 220111
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0741 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E PENDENNIS 38.66N 100.23W
07/21/2011 NESS KS PUBLIC

HOMEOWNER LOST THE ROOF OFF A BARN AND MOST FARM

OUTBUILDINGS HAVE DAMAGE. ESTIMATED WINDS GUST OF 70 MPH.

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KGLD [220109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 220109
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
709 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM TSTM WND DMG 13 SW LEOTI 38.35N 101.53W
07/21/2011 WICHITA KS EMERGENCY MNGR

OPEN ENDED SHED DESTROYED. SIZE OF SHED UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

MLAMMERS

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KMEG [220103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 220103
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
803 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 35.13N 90.01W
07/21/2011 SHELBY TN TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE FOOT OF WATER IN TWO RIGHT LANES AND RIGHT SHOULDER
ON I-240 NORTHBOUND BEFORE EXIT 31/I-40 WEST TO LITTLE
ROCK EXIT.

&&

$$

CML

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220100
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN CO/NWRN KS/S-CNTRL
NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...ERN CO/NWRN KS/S-CNTRL NEB...
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS SERN CO
PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN SD SWWD INTO N-CNTRL
CO. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS FEATURING
A DEVELOPING 35 KT LLJ THIS EVENING SHOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT/MASS FLUX INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD
AID IN SOME STORM CONGEALING/CONGLOMERATION INTO AN MCS CAPABLE OF
ISOLD SEVERE/DMGG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS SPREAD E-NE WITH TIME.

...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
S OF AN EARLIER PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF
MAINE...WEAK UPPER RIDGING/WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE MCV
HAVE NEGATED APPRECIABLE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR ACROSS
THE REGION. RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ALONG A W-E
ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER FAR SRN QUEBEC INTO A
LARGELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z GYX/ALB RAOBS SEEMS
TO JUSTIFY A CONTINUATION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK /ALBEIT
CONDITIONAL/ INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND/HAIL RISK.

...WRN TN/NRN MS-AL-GA...
DIURNAL STABILIZATION AND OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH WITH A WWD PROPAGATING COLD POOL
THROUGH WRN TN AND OTHER PULSE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...NEGATING THE NEED FOR LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH/KERR.. 07/22/2011

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KMEG [220053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 220053
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 PM FLASH FLOOD DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 35.13N 90.05W
07/21/2011 SHELBY TN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED FLASH FLOODING WITH 4 FEET OF WATER AT THE
CORNER OF MADISON AND MANASSAS STREET.

&&

$$

CML

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1683

ACUS11 KWNS 220050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220050
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-220215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL MAINE...NRN NH...NRN VT...FAR
NERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220050Z - 220215Z

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS AN E/W-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
SHIFTING EWD/ESEWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW
-- I.E. 2375 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER GRAY MAINE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING --
WILL OFFER SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS ENSUING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
40 TO 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WITH
THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS EMANATING FROM MORE ORGANIZED BOWING
STRUCTURES. THE ABSENCE OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT /LITTLE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE NOTED OVER RECENT TIME/ AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE SVR THREAT TO SOME DEGREE.
HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW ALOFT PER AREA VWP DATA AND THE
PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC. WHILE THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOUTH OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS WHERE SUBTLE
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT...THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A PRIMARILY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.

..COHEN.. 07/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44356969 44377203 44337255 44587406 45067392 45027193
45387113 45677061 45776916 45476812 44936777 44616814
44506858 44356969

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 668

WWUS20 KWNS 220048
SEL8
SPC WW 220048
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR EASTERN COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF BURLINGTON COLORADO TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUSSELL
KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MCS NOW FORMING IN E CNTRL CO EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY
NEWD ALONG AND N OF STALLED WSW-ENE FRONT OVER NW KS. NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH NWD EXTENT...AND MODEST WSW MID LVL FLOW SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24020.

...CORFIDI

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KPUB [220045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 220045
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
645 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM TSTM WND DMG LAMAR 38.08N 102.62W
07/21/2011 PROWERS CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED TELEPHONE LINES IN CENTRAL LAMAR.

&&

$$

SROSE

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KICT [220044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 220044
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0702 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 S BUNKER HILL 38.70N 98.70W
07/21/2011 RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO POWER POLES DOWNED NEAR THE BARTON AND RUSSELL COUNTY
LINE.

&&

$$

KED

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KICT [220039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 220039
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
739 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N SUSANK 38.73N 98.77W
07/21/2011 RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

$$

SGS

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KICT [220017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 220017
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 SSE RUSSELL 38.73N 98.77W
07/21/2011 RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

PUBLIC RELAYED THAT A STOCK TRAILER WAS BLOWN OVER.

&&

$$

SGS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1682

ACUS11 KWNS 220010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220010
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...FAR ERN CO...WCNTRL NEB AND SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220010Z - 220145Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM FAR ERN CO EWD ACROSS NW KS AND SRN NEB
WHERE MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED BUT HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SE CO ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE MCS...MESOANALYSIS SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS NW KS AND UP TO 3500
J/KG ACROSS SRN NEB. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS IN NW KS AND SRN NEB
SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS SHOULD
CONTAIN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED BY THE RAPID CITY WSR-88D VWP TO AROUND 50 KT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF ROTATING STORMS CAN PERSIST IN THE
MID-EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...
BOU...

LAT...LON 38900015 40079980 41039970 42359943 43849950 44310005
44330102 43980160 43360181 42750194 42160205 41270214
40200231 38810245 38310188 38260089 38900015

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KPUB [220010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 220010
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
610 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND GST LAMAR 38.08N 102.62W
07/21/2011 M64 MPH PROWERS CO ASOS

&&

$$

SROSE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1681

ACUS11 KWNS 220009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220009
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...W-CNTRL IL...FAR NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220009Z - 220145Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR
A WW.

EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A
NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN IA INTO W-CNTRL IL. AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL IA ARE
MAINTAINING ITS BAROCLINICITY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DIVERGENT FLOW SOUTH OF A 1012-MB MESOHIGH
CENTERED OVER N-CNTRL IA...HAS PROMPTED THE INITIATION OF STRONG
CONVECTION EARLIER OVER MONROE COUNTY IA...WITH ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS
AT INITIATION FARTHER WEST INTO LUCAS COUNTY...AND ACROSS LOUISA
COUNTY IA. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN THE 00Z
DAVENPORT IA SOUNDING...THE COMBINATION OF SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS COULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION...AIDED BY 34 KT OF 0-6-KM
BULK SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE 00Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING. GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS...LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH GENERALLY MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE
LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SVR THREAT TO
ISOLATED.

..COHEN.. 07/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40529045 40319283 40509447 40999485 41419435 41689238
41559038 40928983 40529045

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KPUB [220000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 220000
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
600 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0559 PM TSTM WND GST LAMAR 38.08N 102.62W
07/21/2011 M61 MPH PROWERS CO ASOS

&&

$$

SROSE

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KHUN [212354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHUN 212354
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
654 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HAIL 1 NNE FARLEY 34.61N 86.56W
07/21/2011 E0.50 INCH MADISON AL PUBLIC

0519 PM TSTM WND DMG CLOVERDALE 34.94N 87.77W
07/21/2011 LAUDERDALE AL 911 CALL CENTER

FEW TREES DOWN

0534 PM TSTM WND DMG GREEN HILL 34.97N 87.51W
07/21/2011 LAUDERDALE AL 911 CALL CENTER

FEW TREES DOWN

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERLOO 34.92N 88.06W
07/21/2011 LAUDERDALE AL 911 CALL CENTER

2 TREES DOWN

&&

$$

SS

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KICT [212353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 212353
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0651 PM TSTM WND GST SUSANK 38.64N 98.77W
07/21/2011 E60 MPH BARTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SGS

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KMEG [212331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 212331
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM FLASH FLOOD OXFORD 34.36N 89.53W
07/21/2011 LAFAYETTE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR FLASH FLOODING ON MOLLY BARR STREET WITH ANKLE
DEPTH WATER.

&&

$$

CML

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KICT [212328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 212328
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S GORHAM 38.79N 99.02W
07/21/2011 RUSSELL KS EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER POLE KNOCKED OVER AND TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

$$

SGS

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KPUB [212324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 212324
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND GST LA JUNTA 37.98N 103.54W
07/21/2011 M60 MPH OTERO CO ASOS

&&

$$

SROSE

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KPUB [212318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 212318
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
518 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E LA JUNTA 37.98N 103.53W
07/21/2011 E65 MPH OTERO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SROSE

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KLMK [212244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 212244
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW BOWLING GREEN 36.91N 86.52W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BROWNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022 LMK1101023 LMK1101025 LMK1101024 LMK1101026

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KOHX [212237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 212237
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
537 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ON MEDICAL CENTER PKWY AND A FEW LIMBS DOWN
AROUND MURFREESBORO

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG N MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

OLD OAK TREE 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED ON WILKINSON PIKE
NEAR THE AVENUES IN MURFREESBORO.

0249 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW LEWISBURG 35.55N 86.84W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 431 ABOUT 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAURY AND
MARSHALL COUNTY LINE.

0254 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW SHELBYVILLE 35.56N 86.48W
07/21/2011 BEDFORD TN AMATEUR RADIO

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A HOUSE OCCURRED ON DEPOT STREET AS
AN EIGHTEEN INCH TREE FELL ONTO IT.

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N LEWISBURG 35.52N 86.79W
07/21/2011 MARSHALL TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S FRANKLIN 35.86N 86.84W
07/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL LARGE TREE
LIMBS BEING BROKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIA 35.62N 87.00W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN EASTERN MAURY COUNTY

&&

$$

31

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KLMK [212237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 212237
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW BOWLING GREEN 36.91N 86.52W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BROWNING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022 LMK1101023 LMK1101025 LMK1101024 LMK1101026

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLMK 212236
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SW BOWLING GREEN 36.91N 86.52W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BROWNING.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101026

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KOHX [212236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 212236
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N LEWISBURG 35.52N 86.79W
07/21/2011 MARSHALL TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

&&

$$

31

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KOHX [212227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 212227
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ON MEDICAL CENTER PKWY AND A FEW LIMBS DOWN
AROUND MURFREESBORO

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG N MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

OLD OAK TREE 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED ON WILKINSON PIKE
NEAR THE AVENUES IN MURFREESBORO.

0249 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW LEWISBURG 35.55N 86.84W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 431 ABOUT 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAURY AND
MARSHALL COUNTY LINE.

0254 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW SHELBYVILLE 35.56N 86.48W
07/21/2011 BEDFORD TN AMATEUR RADIO

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A HOUSE OCCURRED ON DEPOT STREET AS
AN EIGHTEEN INCH TREE FELL ONTO IT.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S FRANKLIN 35.86N 86.84W
07/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL LARGE TREE
LIMBS BEING BROKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIA 35.62N 87.00W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN EASTERN MAURY COUNTY

&&

$$

31

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KOHX [212227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 212227
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0254 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NNW SHELBYVILLE 35.56N 86.48W
07/21/2011 BEDFORD TN AMATEUR RADIO

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A HOUSE OCCURRED ON DEPOT STREET AS
AN EIGHTEEN INCH TREE FELL ONTO IT.

&&

$$

31

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1680

ACUS11 KWNS 212225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212225
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-220030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...SWRN KY...FAR NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212225Z - 220030Z

THE BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVER PORTIONS OF TN/KY COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE MS
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...THE OVERALL LACK
OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE AND TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION ARE MOVING
WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 20 KT. SFC MESOANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED COLD POOL OVER MIDDLE TN WITH AN ATTENDANT
MESOHIGH AND SFC PRESSURE RISES AROUND 2 MB IN 2 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM
OF ONGOING CONVECTION...THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES OF 2.0
TO 2.3 INCHES. CONVERGENCE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WWD-EXPANDING
COLD POOL JUXTAPOSED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS WILL FOSTER CONTINUED WWD CONVECTIVE PROPAGATION INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION REGENERATES
DOWNSTREAM. DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IN MANY AREAS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR POSSIBLY
DMGG SFC WINDS...WITH THE THREAT ENHANCED BY THE MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION ATTENDANT TO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. AFFIRMING THIS
POTENTIAL...AN EARLIER GUST TO 64 KT WAS MEASURED AT BOWLING GREEN
KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION OVER THE NRN FLANK
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...MEMPHIS VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTENANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SVR THREAT. AFTER 01Z...STABILIZATION OWING TO
NOCTURNAL COOLING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DECREASING TREND OF ANY ONGOING CONVECTION.

..COHEN.. 07/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36408937 36898890 37058830 37108763 36808737 36338777
35838804 35128821 34668853 34508952 34869013 35568987
36408937

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KLMK [212212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 212212
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
612 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE BOWLING GREEN 36.91N 86.36W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BROWING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022 LMK1101023 LMK1101025 LMK1101024 LMK1101026

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KOHX [212209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 212209
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
509 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ON MEDICAL CENTER PKWY AND A FEW LIMBS DOWN
AROUND MURFREESBORO

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG N MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

OLD OAK TREE 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED ON WILKINSON PIKE
NEAR THE AVENUES IN MURFREESBORO.

0249 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW LEWISBURG 35.55N 86.84W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 431 ABOUT 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAURY AND
MARSHALL COUNTY LINE.

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S FRANKLIN 35.86N 86.84W
07/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL LARGE TREE
LIMBS BEING BROKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIA 35.62N 87.00W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN EASTERN MAURY COUNTY

&&

$$

31

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KOHX [212206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 212206
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
506 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S FRANKLIN 35.86N 86.84W
07/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL LARGE TREE
LIMBS BEING BROKEN OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

31

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 667

WWUS20 KWNS 212203
SEL7
SPC WW 212203
MEZ000-212200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
603 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 667 ISSUED AT 1235 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MAINE

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KLMK [212202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 212202
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
602 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE BOWLING GREEN 36.91N 86.36W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN IN BROWING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101026

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KOHX [212157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 212157
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
457 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ON MEDICAL CENTER PKWY AND A FEW LIMBS DOWN
AROUND MURFREESBORO

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG N MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

OLD OAK TREE 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED ON WILKINSON PIKE
NEAR THE AVENUES IN MURFREESBORO.

0249 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW LEWISBURG 35.55N 86.84W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 431 ABOUT 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAURY AND
MARSHALL COUNTY LINE.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIA 35.62N 87.00W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN EASTERN MAURY COUNTY

&&

$$

31

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KOHX [212154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 212154
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
454 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0249 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW LEWISBURG 35.55N 86.84W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND A FEW TREES DOWN ALONG
HIGHWAY 431 ABOUT 2 TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE MAURY AND
MARSHALL COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

STEIGERWALDT

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KLMK [212150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 212150
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
550 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022 LMK1101023 LMK1101025 LMK1101024

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLMK 212149
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 212147
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
547 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101025

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KOHX [212144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOHX 212144
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ON MEDICAL CENTER PKWY AND A FEW LIMBS DOWN
AROUND MURFREESBORO

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG N MURFREESBORO 35.85N 86.39W
07/21/2011 RUTHERFORD TN TRAINED SPOTTER

OLD OAK TREE 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED ON WILKINSON PIKE
NEAR THE AVENUES IN MURFREESBORO.

0325 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E COLUMBIA 35.62N 87.00W
07/21/2011 MAURY TN NWS EMPLOYEE

A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN EASTERN MAURY COUNTY

&&

$$

31

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KLMK [212143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 212143
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022 LMK1101023 LMK1101024

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 212142
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
542 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TWO SMALL PLANES TURNED OVER AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101024

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 212136
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 WARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS THE CITY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101023

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KLMK [212134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 212134
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
533 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM TSTM WND GST BOWLING GREEN 36.97N 86.44W
07/21/2011 M74 MPH WARREN KY ASOS

REPORTED AT WARREN COUNTY AIRPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1101022

$$

SZAPPANOS

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KDDC [212124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 212124
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WNW HAYS 38.91N 99.40W
07/21/2011 E55 MPH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL AND
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 MPH WITH A PASSING STORM WEST OF
HAYS.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210839
SWOD48
SPC AC 210838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL UPR FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED
INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. SPRAWLING UPR HIGH WILL SPAN THE SRN STATES
WITH THE PROGRESSIVE WLYS ALONG THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. A
MID-LEVEL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUN /DAY 4/ WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM AND REINFORCE
THE BROAD UPR TROUGH ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN SEABOARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A NEW DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE PAC NW
AND THEN EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS BY MON-TUE /DAY
5-6/...MUCH LIKE IT/S PREDECESSORS. THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THESE SYSTEMS IS PORTRAYED DIFFERENTLY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND RENDERS A LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN. THUS...NO SVR WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS ARE JUSTIFIED ATTM.

..RACY.. 07/21/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210725
SWODY3
SPC AC 210724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR HIGH WILL BEGIN A MIGRATORY TRIP WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. ALONG THE NRN FRINGE...WAVE TRAIN OF UPR TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL FROM THE PAC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA AND INTO THE NERN STATES. UPR SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST THU WILL WOBBLE ACROSS SRN CANADA BY SATURDAY WITH SRN EXTENTS
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY.

IN THE LWR LEVELS...TAIL-END OF A FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY/MIDWEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTION. A NEW COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NCNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE
UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

...NCNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD...SPANNING AN AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLD SVR
WINDS/HAIL ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAP AND NOSE OF THE SLY
LLJ. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY
REGIONS DURING THE DAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM TO EVOLUTION OF AFTN/EVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE UPR TROUGH
WILL EXTEND INTO PARTS OF ERN SD/WCNTRL MN BY PEAK HEATING. EITHER
INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY...OR NEW SFC-BASED STORMS WILL
PROBABLY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY AFTN.
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND
PRESENCE OF 40-45 KTS OF MID-LVL WLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WILL YIELD SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL AND PSBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE INTO A SATURDAY NIGHT
MCS...PROPAGATING EWD TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY.

TO THE S...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS NEB AND NW
KS...BUT HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS MAY RESULT IN ISOLD MULTICELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 07/21/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1673

ACUS11 KWNS 210714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210714
IAZ000-NEZ000-210915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEB...EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 210714Z - 210915Z

TSTMS ORIENTED ALONG A SW-NE AXIS OVER ERN NEB HAVE POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE TRAINING WITH REPEAT CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN A PRIMARY THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM HOWARD AND GREELEY CNTYS NEWD
INTO BURT CNTY...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS
MAXIMIZED. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES...AND DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SLOW
NEWD CELL MOVEMENT. THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY BACK BUILD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
LARGELY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z...WITH CELLS MOVING NEWD ACROSS AREAS
ALREADY TRAVERSED BY PREVIOUS STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HR WILL BE COMMON WITHIN THE BAND. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL...BUT
RELATIVELY HIGH WBZ LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..WEISS.. 07/21/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41599871 41929803 42159719 42359644 42369577 42099547
41839556 41629666 41469745 41249804 40959839 40719889
40789918 40949926 41599871

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KGJT [210638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 210638
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1238 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 AM FLASH FLOOD ARCHES NP 38.62N 109.62W
07/21/2011 GRAND UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLOODING IN SALT WASH FROM EARLIER STORMS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100514

$$

NL

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KLWX [210631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 210631
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE HALLTOWN 39.34N 77.79W
07/19/2011 JEFFERSON WV NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN IN MEADOW BROOK SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101252

$$

KRAMAR

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KGLD [210607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 210607
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 AM TSTM WND GST TRIBUNE 38.47N 101.75W
07/21/2011 E60 MPH GREELEY KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MENTZER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210554
SWODY2
SPC AC 210553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY NWWD TO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AN E-W FASHION OVER THE SRN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PROGRESSIVE WLYS TO DIP
FARTHER INTO THE NRN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE
SEVERAL IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. LEAD
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL BECOME ABSORBED
INTO THE POLAR LOW OVER SERN CANADA BY THU NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND FRI AFTN.
MEANWHILE...SECOND IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS WRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL TURN EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING FRI
AFTN/NIGHT.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CORN BELT
AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECOND SYSTEM. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS FRI EVE/NIGHT. BOTH FRONTS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PSBL
SVR TSTMS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...UPR MS VLY WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...
LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY 70S SFC DEW POINTS...WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE NWD FRI AS SLY FLOW ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPR SYSTEM.
CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN H85-H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL CAP...PARTICULARLY ALONG/SW OF THE MO RVR VLY.
HOWEVER...00Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF HINT THAT A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL
WAVE MAY EJECT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH... REACHING PARTS OF
SD/ND BY MID-AFTN FRI. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES...AND WEAK ASCENT/MOISTENING OF THE BASE OF THE EML WILL
PROBABLY YIELD WDLY SCTD SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/LEE LOW IN SRN ND AND NRN/CNTRL SD. 0-8KM SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER
PSBL...INCLUDING TORNADOES. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND
QUESTION ON NUMBER OF STORMS GIVEN WARM MID-LVL TEMPS PRECLUDES
HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM...BUT SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER COULD
OCCUR SHOULD STORMS INDEED FORM. WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS FORM OR
NOT...LLJ INCREASING TO 40 KTS AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
ELEVATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE UPR MS
VLY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SRN FRINGES OF ACTIVITY COULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY ROOTED AT THE SFC FOR DMGG WIND THREATS TO SPREAD EWD
TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL
PRIMARILY BE MRGLLY SVR WITH HAIL/HVY RNFL.

MEANWHILE...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTN/EVE.
HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENCOUNTER
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN MT/WRN ND FRI EVENING.
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ROBUST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
FOSTER BOTH SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH
WINDS/HAIL AND PSBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
JOIN STORMS FARTHER E OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI NIGHT.

...NRN MAINE...
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SCOURED OUT BY FROPA THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI...APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE
A BURST OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG/E OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
VLY/INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRI AFTN. IF CAPPING CAN BE
OVERCOME...ISOLD TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. DEEP AND FAST WLY FLOW /H5
50+ KTS/ MAY YIELD A COUPLE SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS WITH DMGG WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..RACY.. 07/21/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210553
SWODY1
SPC AC 210551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN-CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WILL DEAMPLIFY
TODAY AS A STRONG BELT OF WLY/S PERMEATE MUCH OF THE NRN TIER OF
STATES IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESSING EWD N OF
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MOST NOTABLE UPPER FEATURE WILL BE A
DISTURBANCE--CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED--AND EMBEDDED ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF THE MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH...THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EWD FROM ERN ONTARIO TO THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY BY MIDDAY AND THEN
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION WILL DRIFT EWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
CORNBELT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING SPEED MAX IN THE PACIFIC NW.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFFECTING NRN NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THIS REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY BE
MODULATED TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BY ONGOING CLUSTER/MCS ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC THAT MAY PERSIST AND POSSIBLY SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE
IMPETUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CORNBELT LATE. HERE TOO...ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF THE BOUNDARY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER WLY/S.

...NRN-CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING...ALONG
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FED BY A PLUME OF UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS...AND A PIECE OF THE CNTRL U.S. EML WILL
PROBABLY YIELD 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH
FARTHER N EXTENT DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANY MCS THAT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW-W GIVEN
APPRECIABLE LOWER TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
STRONGLY FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH BOWING SEGMENTS-- AND MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
CORRIDOR OF DMGG WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW /I.E. NRN 2/3RDS MAINE/. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS--WITH ISALLOBARIC FORCING/RELATIVE BACKING OF LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND A 50 KT LLJ ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /300+
M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/. THE SUPERCELL THREAT AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
/INCLUDING ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL/ APPEAR GREATEST ACROSS MAINE
WHERE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL BE STRONGEST. FARTHER
S...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS BUT POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND/LARGE
HAIL RISK.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
WITH THE AID OF A MODERATE/VEERING LOW LEVEL JET IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE FRONT ZONE...ONE OR MORE TSTMS CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS.
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER DESTABILIZATION WHILE OTHERWISE
EFFECTIVELY SHIFTING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE
MODEST...VEERING WINDS MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE
FORM OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF WIND DMGG/SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS ACROSS ERN NEB/NERN KS INTO WRN
IA AS THE LLJ REINVIGORATES BY THE LATE EVENING.

FARTHER WEST...OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING VIA A
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
VERTICAL SHEAR/LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK/POOR...BUT A
SEASONABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A SPORADIC THREAT FOR
POCKETS OF ISOLD WIND DMGG FROM WET MICROBURSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

..SMITH/KERR/COHEN.. 07/21/2011

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KBIS [210434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KBIS 210434
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1128 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE ROSEGLEN 47.80N 101.68W
07/20/2011 M60.00 MPH MCLEAN ND MESONET

0517 AM TSTM WND GST MAX 47.82N 101.30W
07/20/2011 E60.00 MPH MCLEAN ND PUBLIC

ALSO REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL. REPORT RELAY VIA
BROADCAST MEDIA.

0520 AM TSTM WND DMG MAX 47.82N 101.30W
07/20/2011 MCLEAN ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWNED AND UPROOTED IN MAX.

0645 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 NW BALTA 48.22N 100.11W
07/20/2011 PIERCE ND PUBLIC

BOX ELDER TREES TOPPLED. BENT FLAGPOLE

0650 AM TORNADO 5 S RUGBY 48.30N 100.00W
07/20/2011 PIERCE ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

SANITATION BUILDING LEVELED. THREE POWER POLES SW OF THE
SANITATION BUILDING SNAPPED MIDWAY UP AND A LOT OF TREENS
STRIPPED. HAYBALES SCATTERED WITH SOME RIPPED APART. SEMI
TRUCK PICKED UP ALONG ND HIGHWAY 3 AND THROWN INTO A
DITCH. NO FATALITIES OR INJURIES REPORTED. THIS TORNADO
WAS WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF STRAIGHT LINE THUNDERSTORM
WINDS THAT ALSO CAUSED DAMAGE. TORNADO RATING TO BE
DETERMINED. TORNADO DAMAGE PATH LESS THAN A MILE AND
WIDTH LESS THAN 1000 FEET.

0652 AM TSTM WND GST RUGBY 48.37N 100.00W
07/20/2011 E70.00 MPH PIERCE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 E RUGBY 48.37N 99.89W
07/20/2011 PIERCE ND TRAINED SPOTTER

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ESTIMATED TO 75 MPH. 60 FOOT SPRUCE
TREES DOWN. HEAVY RAIN 0.80 INCHES.

0656 AM TSTM WND GST RUGBY 48.37N 100.00W
07/20/2011 M68.00 MPH PIERCE ND MESONET

MEASURED WIND GUST AT RUGBY AWOS.

&&

$$

RK

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