DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210725
SWODY3
SPC AC 210724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NCNTRL PLAINS TO THE
UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR HIGH WILL BEGIN A MIGRATORY TRIP WWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. ALONG THE NRN FRINGE...WAVE TRAIN OF UPR TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL FROM THE PAC NW EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA AND INTO THE NERN STATES. UPR SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PAC NW
COAST THU WILL WOBBLE ACROSS SRN CANADA BY SATURDAY WITH SRN EXTENTS
SKIRTING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY.

IN THE LWR LEVELS...TAIL-END OF A FRONT SITUATED ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY/MIDWEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTION. A NEW COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NCNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE
UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

...NCNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF THE
PERIOD...SPANNING AN AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLD SVR
WINDS/HAIL ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CAP AND NOSE OF THE SLY
LLJ. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VLY
REGIONS DURING THE DAY.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN UPSTREAM TO EVOLUTION OF AFTN/EVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ALONG SRN EDGE OF THE UPR TROUGH
WILL EXTEND INTO PARTS OF ERN SD/WCNTRL MN BY PEAK HEATING. EITHER
INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY...OR NEW SFC-BASED STORMS WILL
PROBABLY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY AFTN.
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND
PRESENCE OF 40-45 KTS OF MID-LVL WLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WILL YIELD SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL AND PSBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. THE ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE INTO A SATURDAY NIGHT
MCS...PROPAGATING EWD TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY.

TO THE S...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS NEB AND NW
KS...BUT HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS MAY RESULT IN ISOLD MULTICELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 07/21/2011

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