KEKA [160427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 160427
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
826 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 10 N LAYTONVILLE 39.81N 123.48W
02/15/2009 E5.0 INCH MENDOCINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 5 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT 3800FT

0600 PM SNOW 8 W COMPTCHE 39.27N 123.75W
02/15/2009 E6.0 INCH MENDOCINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AT 4000FT

0600 PM SNOW 11 SSW CARRVILLE 40.91N 122.78W
02/15/2009 M2.0 INCH TRINITY CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 2 INCHES ACCUMULATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BETWEEN THE 14TH AND THE 15TH AT 2500FT

&&

$$

BLOEMER

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KLCH [160244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 160244
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 S PINE PRAIRIE 30.77N 92.42W
02/14/2009 EVANGELINE LA NWS STORM SURVEY

A LARGE DOWNBURST BEGAN ABOUT 1 MILE S OF PINE PRAIRIE
AND ENDED ABOUT 7 MILES NE OF VILLE PLATTE. THIS AREA OF
WIND DAMAGE WAS AROUND 15 MILES LONG AND UP TO 3 MILES
WIDE. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SCATTERED TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN
FROM NW TO SE WITH SEVERAL ROADS BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES.
POWER LINES WERE ALSO BLOWN DOWN WITH A FEW OUTBUILDINGS
RECEIVING DAMAGE. NO EVIDENCE OF A TORNADO WAS FOUND.

&&

$$

ML

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KMFR [160138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160138
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
537 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S MCCLOUD 41.22N 122.14W
02/15/2009 E13.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 5PM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KBIS [160129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 160129
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
729 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM DENSE FOG BOWMAN 46.18N 103.39W
02/15/2009 BOWMAN ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

BOWMAN SHERIFF REPORTS PATCHY FOG REDUCING THE VISIBILITY
TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

&&

$$

PJA

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KREV [160101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 160101
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
501 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.14W
02/15/2009 E4.0 INCH PLACER CA COAST GUARD

COAST GUARD STATION LAKE TAHOE REPORTED 4 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW SINCE 1000 AM THIS MORNING AT ELEVATION 6250 FT.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 250 STATUTE MILES OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SEWD TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHERE A
BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL ORIENTED NNE TO SSW IS LOCATED. THIS BAND
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD INTO CNTRL CA TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS WELL
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/16/2009

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KREV [160045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 160045
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
445 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM SNOW 4 SSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.33N 120.18W
02/15/2009 U0.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 2 HOURS
AT ELEVATION 6300 FT WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING. TOTAL
AMOUNT OF SNOW SINCE THIS MORNING IS UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KREV [160009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 160009
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
409 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM SNOW 3 ENE ALPINE MEADOWS 39.18N 120.16W
02/15/2009 M10.0 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 700 AM AT
ELEVATION 7000 FT WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KREV [152341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 152341
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
340 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM SNOW 5 WSW BOCA RESERVOIR 39.37N 120.17W
02/15/2009 E8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.

0338 PM SNOW 4 S BOCA RESERVOIR 39.35N 120.10W
02/15/2009 E3.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST
12 HOURS. STILL SNOWING.

0338 PM SNOW 1 S BLAIRSDEN 39.76N 120.62W
02/15/2009 E2.0 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KVEF [152332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 152332
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
331 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BISHOP 37.37N 118.40W
02/15/2009 M44 MPH INYO CA ASOS

THE BISHOP ASOS RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH.

&&

$$

ASG

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KBIS [152329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 152329
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
529 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM SNOW CARTWRIGHT 47.86N 103.93W
02/15/2009 E2.0 INCH MCKENZIE ND BROADCAST MEDIA

24 HOUR SNOWFALL. PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY THE MEDIA.

&&

$$

PJA

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KREV [152315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 152315
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
315 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM SNOW 4 NNE GRASS VALLEY 39.27N 121.03W
02/15/2009 M8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BETWEEN 800 AM AND
145 PM. STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KMFR [152212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152212
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
212 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM HEAVY SNOW SSW TENNANT 41.58N 121.91W
02/15/2009 M13.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW AMOUNT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 30 INCHES ON
GROUND.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KLOX [152136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 152136
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
136 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1214 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 SE PISMO BEACH 35.07N 120.58W
02/15/2009 SAN LUIS OBISPO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN IN ARROYO GRANDE.

&&

$$

HALL

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KJKL [152111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KJKL 152111 CCA
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W HARLAN 36.84N 83.34W
01/28/2009 HARLAN KY BROADCAST MEDIA

A NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TORE THE ROOF OFF A TRAILER
IN THE COMMUNITY OF DAYHOIT. CORRECTED EVENT TIME.

&&

$$

AR

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KJKL [152109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 152109
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1205 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W HARLAN 36.84N 83.34W
01/28/2009 HARLAN KY BROADCAST MEDIA

A NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST TORE THE ROOF OFF A TRAILER
IN THE COMMUNITY OF DAYHOIT.

&&

$$

AR

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KMFR [152032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152032
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1232 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1208 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SSW WEED 41.36N 122.42W
02/15/2009 E18.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT SINCE 5 PM PST SATURDAY. PEAK WIND GUST TO 51 MPH
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 3 TO 6 FOOT DRIFTS.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [152009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 152009
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1209 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1039 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 S MCCLOUD 41.22N 122.14W
02/15/2009 M11.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT SINCE 5 PM PST SATURDAY. VERY HEAVY WET SNOW WITH
1.98 INCHES WATER EQUIVALENT. HAS HAD 57 INCHES OF SNOW
SINCE FEB 9TH.

1148 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.35N 122.35W
02/15/2009 M24.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24.0 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS

1208 PM HEAVY SNOW ESE MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.31W
02/15/2009 M16.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151909
SWODY1
SPC AC 151906

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED CONUS-WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS STABLE
CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL. A FEW TSTMS COULD REACH COASTAL CA
LATE TONIGHT...BUT 10% TSTM PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
WARRANTED.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD SFC/UPPER LOW OFF NRN CA COAST EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SLOW FILLING. DOWNSTREAM MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AS RIDGING SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS AND STRONG WIND MAX/TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL U.S. HAS PUSHED ANY THREAT OF
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SWD INTO NRN GULF OF MEXICO.
WEAK FRONTAL BAND STRETCHES E/W ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SWD...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BOTH SIDES OF FRONT...PRECLUDES SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP UPDRAFTS FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER LAND.
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE IN AREA OF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
TONIGHT OFF E COAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.

ALONG THE CA COAST WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW OFFSHORE MAKING LITTLE
PROGRESS...CONDITIONS FOR SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION TO PRODUCE A
LIGHTNING THREAT OVER LAND NOT EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
LIMITED ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES OFFSHORE...ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z MON WHEN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

..GUYER/HALES.. 02/15/2009

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KBIS [151819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151819
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW WILLISTON 48.15N 103.63W
02/15/2009 M1.3 INCH WILLIAMS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

12 HOUR SNOWFALL AT WSO WILLISTON.

&&

$$

PJA

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KBIS [151803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 151803
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1203 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 NE TOWNER 48.37N 100.37W
02/15/2009 M1.0 INCH MCHENRY ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL

&&

$$

PA

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KMFR [151755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 151755
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
955 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.31W
02/15/2009 M16.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 5 PM PST SATURDAY. STILL SNOWING. NO WIND.

0916 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.38N 122.39W
02/15/2009 E20.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES APPROXIMATELY 20 INCHES OF NEW SNOW

SINCE 5 PM LAST NIGHT. GREATER THAN 3 FEET ON THE GROUND.

0951 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MEDFORD 42.34N 122.85W
02/15/2009 M43.00 MPH JACKSON OR ASOS

WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AT ROGUE VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AT 617 AM PST.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151302
SWODY1
SPC AC 151259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NRN CA CST THROUGH MON
AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES E TO THE HI PLNS.
AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION OF RIDGE WILL SERVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
...TO CURTAIL RECENT TRAIN OF LOW AMPLITUDE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCES
AFFECTING TX AND THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LAST SUCH
IMPULSE...NOW OVER AR/LA PER SATELLITE...APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR
RECENT FLARE-UP OF STORMS INVOF SUBTLE SFC WAVE JUST OFF THE SRN LA
CST. THE IMPULSE AND SFC WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY E TODAY...
WITH THE SFC WAVE REACHING NW FL BY EVE. THE WAVE SHOULD REDEVELOP
OFF THE NE FL CST TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLNS OVERTAKES IT.

...NRN/CNTRL FL...
TSTMS NOW OVER THE N CNTRL GULF SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AS UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE AND UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUE EWD. THE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH NW PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER
LAND LIKELY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS AS /1/
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK.../2/ CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING...
AND /3/ LOW LVL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND HEATING WILL BE MINIMAL. BUT
SATELLITE PW DATA SHOW THAT FAIRLY MOISTURE-RICH AIR /PWS OF 1.5 TO
2.0 INCHES/ IS PRESENT OVER THE NE GULF. GIVEN 40-45 KT DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF FAST FLOW ALOFT...SETUP
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF STRONG STORMS CROSSING
THE NERN GULF COULD AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE WRN FL CST FROM NEAR TPA TO
CTY. ANY SVR THREAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLD DMGG
WIND GUST OR TWO...AND THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. OVERLAND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AS SFC WAVE REFORMS OFF THE NE FL CST THIS EVE.

...CA...
SATELLITE DATA SHOW A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA ALONG ROUGHLY 135W THAT
WILL KEEP UPR LOW MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OFF THE NRN CA CST TODAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SLY LLJ ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST. COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH UPR SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL EARLY MON WHEN IMPULSE
NOW NEAR 35N/135W APPROACHES THE VBG AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION...WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...SVR THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..CORFIDI.. 02/15/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150958
SWOD48
SPC AC 150957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...

STRONG SRN BRANCH UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER MS...TN AND
OH VALLEYS WED WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSES WITH
SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES WED NIGHT. SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL REMAIN TIED TO STRONGER
FORCING WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY OR GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES. THOUGH
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AMONG THE MODELS...SOME DIFFERENCES
EXIST IN TIMING AND MESOSCALE DETAILS.

SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS REMAIN CONTINGENT PRIMARILY ON DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. GULF FRONTAL INTRUSION
MONDAY WILL DELAY BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE WRN GULF. BY
WEDNESDAY AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES ALONG A
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND EAST OF ADVANCING FRONT WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW REGIME FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES AND
ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL DUE IN PART TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MOIST AXIS
COULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS.

FARTHER NORTH INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF UPPER JET EXIT REGION
WHICH COULD COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF
SURFACE HEATING COULD DEVELOP IN DRY SLOT...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD EXIST WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE SEVERE TREAT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DAY 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 02/15/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150753
SWODY3
SPC AC 150751

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE BUT COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY. PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A STRONG
UPPER JET FORECAST TO EJECT FROM BASE OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SITUATED OFF THE WRN U.S. COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE SRN
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER JET CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH...A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE NWD TRANSPORT OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WLY
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL ADVECT STEEPER LAPSE RATES EWD THROUGH THIS
REGION ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT
IN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. STORMS APPEAR MOST
PROBABLE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION
WHERE DEEPER ASCENT AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST.
THE ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL
THREAT OF HAIL WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HOWEVER...MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES DO NOT
APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

IT APPEARS MUCH OF ERN TX MIGHT REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEPER CONVECTION
WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL EXIST. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN TX MAY BE ACROSS NERN PORTION OF THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT.

..DIAL.. 02/15/2009

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KABQ [150716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 150716
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1216 AM MST SUN FEB 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
02/14/2009 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1200 AM SNOW 7 E CANJILON 36.50N 106.31W
02/15/2009 E1.2 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

BATEMAN SNOTEL.

1200 AM SNOW 5 NW CHAMA 36.95N 106.65W
02/15/2009 E1.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

CHAMITA SNOTEL.

&&

$$

GUYER

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KCYS [150620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 150620
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1120 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 PM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
02/14/2009 M1.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1118 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
02/14/2009 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ONE INCH OF NEW SNOW SINCE MID AFTERNOON...WITH 3 INCHES
OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150552
SWODY1
SPC AC 150550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NRN CA
COAST TODAY AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS NEAR THE CNTRL COAST
OF CA. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INLAND THIS EVENING WHICH
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. MODERATE
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE CA COAST. DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NCNTRL
FL ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE WEAK OVER FL AND THIS SHOULD NOT SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT TODAY OR TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/15/2009

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KLCH [150548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 150548
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1112 PM HAIL PECAN ISLAND 29.65N 92.45W
02/14/2009 E0.75 INCH VERMILION LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT FIVE MINUTES

&&

$$

KKUYPER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150530
SWODY2
SPC AC 150527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA...

SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA
COAST AS IT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD. A STRONG UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO SRN CA MONDAY ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN CA WITHIN ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL ASCENT
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS ZONE OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN CA NORTH
OF UPPER JET AXIS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...ELSEWHERE...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN
U.S. IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NLY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS
INLAND. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH
S TX BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND LEE TROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN THIS WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...BUT PRESENCE OF A CAP WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/15/2009

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KDLH [150524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 150524
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
02/14/2009 M0.8 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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