DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010047
SWODY1
SPC AC 010044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY PROGRESSIVE LOW MOVING
EWD ACROSS NRN ONT AND JAMES BAY REGION...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD
ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK THEN WEAK TROUGHING WWD OVER S-CENTRAL
ROCKIES/4-CORNERS REGION.

..SERN FL...
SHEARING PROCESS AS DESCRIBED IN NHC DISCUSSIONS...COMBINED WITH
FCST TRACK OF T.S. NOEL...SHOULD KEEP BULK OF DEEPEST CONVECTION
WELL E AND SE OF SRN FL THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. THAT INCLUDES
NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL KINEMATIC
SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED THUNDER STILL MAY OCCUR OVER
LAND...ESPECIALLY INVOF E COAST OR KEYS WHERE UPSTREAM MARINE HEAT
FLUXES ASSOCIATED WITH GULF STREAM BOOST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE
ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
GENERATION OF DEEP BUOYANCY. REF NHC PRODUCTS FOR LATEST GUIDANCE
ON NOEL -- INCLUDING LATEST FCST TRACK...WATCHES AND WARNINGS -- PER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC.

.EDWARDS.. 11/01/2007

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KCYS [312222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected (please See Below)

NWUS55 KCYS 312222 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED (PLEASE SEE BELOW)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
358 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M67 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

1226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M64 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

0247 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M63 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

PLEASE DISREGARD THE ABOVE WIND GUST REPORTS. THE READINGS WERE
ERRONEOUSLY HIGH AND UNRELIABLE DUE TO MAINTENANCE BY NWS CHEYENNE
ELECTRONICS TECHNICIAN CRONIN. RUBIN

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KCYS [312159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 312159
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
358 PM MDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M67 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

1226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M64 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

0247 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
10/30/2007 M63 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

RUBIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311918
SWODY1
SPC AC 311915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..FL...

SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS CERTAINLY ENHANCING AN
OTHERWISE WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. VERY MOIST PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN DEEP ENELY FLOW WELL
REMOVED FROM NOEL OFF THE CUBA COAST. AS NOEL LIFTS NORTH SHEAR
PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
ROTATION WITHIN DEEPER/STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN SPARSE AND ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LOW.

..COLORADO...

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN/CNTRL CO
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG...FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY DIE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DARROW.. 10/31/2007

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KJAX [311725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 311725
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
10/31/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED SURF HEIGHT OF 4 TO 5 FEET. NO
SIGNIFICANT EROSION TODAY WITH THE SURF UP TO THE DUNE
LINE.

&&

$$

BKERNS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311713
SWODY2
SPC AC 311711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTH FL...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL HAS MOVED OFF THE NRN CUBA COAST AND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CURVE NNEWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATER DAY2
BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS STORM
WILL ONLY GLANCE THE SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE A CONTINUED MINIMUM IN
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST WITHIN THE WRN-MOST SEMICIRCLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER LAND. GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FL ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD PROVE RATHER
MEAGER.

.DARROW.. 10/31/2007

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KHNX [311702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 311702
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1002 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL FISH CAMP 37.48N 119.64W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0306 PM HAIL YOSEMITE SOUTH ENTRANCE 37.51N 119.63W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

0445 PM HAIL TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/29/2007 M0.75 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT

0448 PM HAIL 2 SW BAKERSFIELD 35.34N 119.03W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT.

0500 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

IN SOUTHWEST BAKERSFIELD.

0500 PM HAIL TAFT 35.14N 119.46W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

ALOT ON THE GROUND.

0522 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0529 PM HAIL FIREBAUGH 36.85N 120.45W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER REPORTER HAD HAIL AT LEAST PENNY SIZE IN
DIAMETER.

0535 PM HAIL 2 S LIVINGSTON 37.36N 120.72W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH MERCED CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0538 PM HEAVY RAIN MENDOTA 36.76N 120.38W
10/29/2007 M2.20 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

2.20 INCHES STORM TOTAL. 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT
THE MENDOTA ALERT GAUGE IN 15 MINUTES ENDING AT 538 PM.

0541 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HIGHWAY 41 NEAR MOUNT WHITNEY AVENUE.

0544 PM HAIL KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

0544 PM FLASH FLOOD KERMAN 36.72N 120.06W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

STREET FLOODING IN KERMAN.

0549 PM HAIL LEMOORE 36.30N 119.79W
10/29/2007 E0.75 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT GRANGEVILLE AND HIGHWAY 41.

0549 PM HAIL HANFORD 36.33N 119.65W
10/29/2007 M0.50 INCH KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT 16TH AND A HALF AND EXCELSIOR.

0555 PM HAIL FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 M0.75 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0603 PM HAIL W SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

AT MOUNT WHITNEY AND PEACH.

0608 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E1.00 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR NORTHWEST FRESNO.

0618 PM HAIL 5 W FRESNO 36.78N 119.88W
10/29/2007 U0.25 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE. SWATH 6 MILES WIDE FROM KERMAN TO
THE WEST SIDE OF FRESNO.

0618 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW FRESNO 36.85N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOTORIST REPORTED FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 99 AT ASHLAN
AVENUE.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

POWER OUTAGES TO 18,000 PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC
CUSTOMERS IN FRESNO.

0620 PM FLOOD 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA NEWSPAPER

NEWSPAPER AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A NUMBER OF ROADS
FLOODED IN NORTHWEST FRESNO WITH NUMEROUS VEHICLES
STRANDED.

0621 PM HAIL 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 E0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO 0.30 INCHES OF RAIN.

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG MERCED 37.30N 120.48W
10/29/2007 MERCED CA NEWSPAPER

AT LEAST 8 DOWNED TREE LIMBS REPORTED BY PUBLIC WORKS
CREWS. LARGE PINE TREE FELL DOWN. POWER LINES ALSO DOWN.
TIME ESTIMATED.

0632 PM HAIL 2 N SELMA 36.60N 119.61W
10/29/2007 E0.88 INCH FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE AT MANNING AND
MENDOCINO.

0632 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW FRESNO 36.85N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VEHICLE STUCK IN FLOODWATERS AT HIGHWAY 99 AND SHAW. TREE
DOWN IN SLOW LANE.

0645 PM FLOOD 3 NW FRESNO 36.81N 119.83W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

MAJOR FLOODING IN THE TOWER DISTRICT OF FRESNO.

0650 PM FLOOD SELMA 36.57N 119.61W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OFF RAMP AT SECOND AVENUE AND HIGHWAY 99 FLOODED.
NEBRASKA AVENUE FLOODED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN VIEW SCHOOL.

0653 PM HAIL TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.44W
10/29/2007 E0.50 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE REPORTED.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W TEHACHAPI 35.13N 118.51W
10/29/2007 KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEBRIS ON ROADWAY. ROAD FLOODED.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON GETTYSBURG AVENUE AT VAN NESS BLVD.

0706 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTERVILLE 36.06N 119.03W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN.

0707 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

BOTH A STORM CHASER AND BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THE
WEIGHT OF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL LED TO THE COLLAPSE OF A
ROOF ON AN 80,000 SQUARE FOOT WAREHOUSE.

0708 PM TSTM WND DMG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWERLINES AND TREES DOWN ON ROADS.

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

TREES FELL DOWN ON TWO HOUSES DAMAGING THEM. ONE HOUSE
HAD ROOF AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. DETAILS OF DAMAGE TO
OTHER HOUSE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. TIME ESTIMATED.

0715 PM FLOOD VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED IN VISALIA MAINLY IN THE DOWNTOWN
AND ON THE SOUTHSIDE. TIME ESTIMATED.

0725 PM TSTM WND DMG TULARE 36.20N 119.34W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN TULARE. REPORTS OF TREES
AND POWER LINES ALSO DOWN IN LINDSAY.

0745 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SW EL PORTAL 37.62N 119.84W
10/29/2007 M70.00 MPH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

0749 PM TSTM WND DMG LEMON COVE 36.38N 119.02W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA MESONET

TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
10/29/2007 TULARE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

A FEW TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0830 PM FLOOD YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.74N 119.60W
10/29/2007 MARIPOSA CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS OF YOSEMITE VALLEY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0920 PM FLOOD 5 NW FRESNO 36.83N 119.86W
10/29/2007 FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED FLOODWATERS OF SEVERAL
INCHES TO A FOOT STILL COVERING LOW-LYING ROADS NEAR THE
UNION PACIFIC RAILTRACKS AND ASHLAN AVENUE FROM HEAVIER
RAIN EARLY ON.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN LEMON COVE 36.38N 119.02W
10/30/2007 M1.51 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM PDT REPORTED BY LEMC1.

&&
FINAL REPORT ISSUED ON MONDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER. UPDATED TO ADD IN
LATE REPORTS AND UPDATE THE NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS WHO LOST POWER IN
FRESNO.
$$

STACHELSKI/SANGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311518
SWODY1
SPC AC 311515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE U.P. OF
MI INTO NW TX/OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD
AND EXTEND FROM UPSTATE NY SWWD INTO SOUTH TX BY 01/12Z. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WILL PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...T.S. NOEL CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA WILL LIFT NWWD AND THEN NWD
THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS /REF OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS/. ISOLATED TO SCT
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN/CENTRAL FLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF T.S. NOEL.

..SOUTH FLA...
A COMPARISON OF THE 31/12Z AND 31/00Z MIA SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME
MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS STILL NOTED ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING /AND
PREVENTED TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT/ THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF T.S. NOEL TO THE AREA /PER OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS/ COMBINED
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF T.S. NOEL IS FCST TO REMAIN EAST OF SOUTH
FLA...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/ DUE TO
PRESENCE OF AN ELY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..CENTRAL ROCKIES...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN /PER WV
IMAGERY/ WILL INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /NOTED ON 12Z GJT SOUNDING/ TO SUPPORT AROUND 100 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. COMBINED WITH WLY UPSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO AID IN ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WRN CO/SERN UT THIS AFTERNOON.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/31/2007

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KBOI [311231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 311231
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
631 AM MDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FREEZE 5 S MOUNTAIN HOME 43.07N 115.69W
10/31/2007 M30.00 F ELMORE ID OTHER FEDERAL

MOUNTAIN HOME RAWS 30 F AT 252 AM.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311223
SWODY1
SPC AC 311219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TODAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENSIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING
EAST/SOUTHEAST...FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...TO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE APPALACHIANS BY TOMORROW MORNING. TRAILING PORTION
OF THE FRONT...NOW SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE TX/OK PLAINS...WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND EXTEND EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

T.S. NOEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION TOWARD
SOUTH FL TODAY BEFORE RE-CURVING NWD. RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NOEL SUGGESTS IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE FRINGE OF THE T.S. TO MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF
SOUTH FL TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

..FL...
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS SE FL
THIS PERIOD WITH NOEL REMAINING OFFSHORE. DESPITE THE EVENTUAL NWD
TRACK KEEPING THE CENTER OF NOEL WELL OFFSHORE...THERE REMAINS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAT FEEDER BAND CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...COULD CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

..CO...
LOW STATIC STABILITY...DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS
OVER WRN CO.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/31/2007

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KMFL [311121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 311121
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M46.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NOTE RELATED TO TSTM OR SHOWER.

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M47.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NOT RELATED TO TSTMS OR SHOWERS.

0320 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M46.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

SHOWER RELATED. NO LIGHTNING.

0434 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M39.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NOT RELATED TO TSTMS OR SHOWERS.

0510 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M45.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

SHOWER RELATED. NO LIGHTNING.

&&

$$

SANTOS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310817
SWOD48
SPC AC 310817

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

..SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS GROWS RATHER LARGE BEYOND THIS
WEEKEND. BUT...THE 31/00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE WEAK...LIKELY
LIMITED TO A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS COULD BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS NEXT MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT TUESDAY.
BUT...WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
MINOR SEVERE THREAT AT BEST.

.KERR.. 10/31/2007

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KMFL [310609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 310609
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M54.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER. NO LIGHTNING.

0838 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M48.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER. NO LIGHTNING.

0900 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M43.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NON TSTM OR SHOWER RELATED.

0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M48.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NOT RELATED TO TSTM OR SHOWER.

1018 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M47.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NO TSTM OR SHOWER RELATED.

1100 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M43.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

NO TSTM OR SHOWER RELATED.

1101 PM HIGH SURF 5 N PALM BEACH SHORES 26.86N 80.03W
10/30/2007 AMZ650 FL BROADCAST MEDIA

COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION WAS REPORTED AT
SINGER ISLAND, JUST NORTH OF PALM BEACH SHORES. WEATHER
CHANNEL CREW REPORTED 15 TO 20 FEET OF THE BEACH ERODED.
WATER REACHING BASE OF CONDOMINIUM BUILDING.

1155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/30/2007 M47.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

GUST PRODUCED BY SHOWER. NO LIGHTNING.

1224 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
10/31/2007 M52.00 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION

SHOWER RELATED. NO LIGHTNING.

&&

$$

SANTOS

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310558
SWODY3
SPC AC 310557

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG NORTHERN PACIFIC UPPER JET STREAK WILL
NOSE INLAND AROUND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION
OF DOWNSTREAM SPLIT POLAR JETS INTO A BROAD TROUGH EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...NOEL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TREK ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
WELL EAST OF MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. ONE HIGH CENTER MAY RETREAT NORTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND...IN THE WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. BUT...ANOTHER WEAKER HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO
BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS ...AS YET
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

.KERR.. 10/31/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310554
SWODY1
SPC AC 310551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD TOWARD SE FL
TODAY...VEERING NNEWD AND ACCELERATING TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL AFFECT
SERN FL TODAY AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF THE SYSTEM GRAZE THE COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE FL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SRN FL
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST TONIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM REACHES ITS CLOSEST DISTANCE FROM THE FL COAST.

..FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SECONDARY POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES MOVES SLOWLY EWD. SFC
HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES/JEWELL.. 10/31/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310502
SWODY2
SPC AC 310500

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ONE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS ANOTHER DIGS FROM THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/CANADIAN U.S. BORDER AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...A COUPLE OF LOWER
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES...INCLUDING ONE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN GULF
COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AND...AS THIS
OCCURS...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL PROBABLY FINALLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

..SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF NOEL...IT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.

..REMAINDER OF THE U.S...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF STRONGER POLAR TROUGHS...ONE
LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN STATES...AS ANOTHER BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A GENERALLY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
STRATIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.KERR.. 10/31/2007

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