SWODY1
SPC AC 311515
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE U.P. OF
MI INTO NW TX/OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD
AND EXTEND FROM UPSTATE NY SWWD INTO SOUTH TX BY 01/12Z. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WILL PREVENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...T.S. NOEL CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA WILL LIFT NWWD AND THEN NWD
THROUGH THE WRN BAHAMAS /REF OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS/. ISOLATED TO SCT
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN/CENTRAL FLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
PORTIONS OF T.S. NOEL.
..SOUTH FLA...
A COMPARISON OF THE 31/12Z AND 31/00Z MIA SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME
MOISTENING IN THE MID LEVELS HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS STILL NOTED ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING /AND
PREVENTED TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT/ THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY OF T.S. NOEL TO THE AREA /PER OFFICIAL NHC FCSTS/ COMBINED
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF T.S. NOEL IS FCST TO REMAIN EAST OF SOUTH
FLA...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2/ DUE TO
PRESENCE OF AN ELY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.
..CENTRAL ROCKIES...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN /PER WV
IMAGERY/ WILL INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES /NOTED ON 12Z GJT SOUNDING/ TO SUPPORT AROUND 100 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. COMBINED WITH WLY UPSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO AID IN ISOLATED TSTMS OVER WRN CO/SERN UT THIS AFTERNOON.
.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/31/2007
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