KBOI [090109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 090109
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
709 PM MDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0611 AM FREEZE JEROME 42.73N 114.52W
09/30/2007 M30.00 F JEROME ID ASOS

KJER 4048 FT MSL

0740 AM FREEZE CASTLEFORD 42.52N 114.87W
09/30/2007 M30.00 F TWIN FALLS ID CO-OP OBSERVER

CFDI1 3825 FT MSL

0740 AM FREEZE KIMBERLY 42.53N 114.36W
09/30/2007 M26.00 F TWIN FALLS ID CO-OP OBSERVER

TWFI1 3960 FT MSL.

&&
A FREEZE WARNING ENDED AT 808 AM 9/30/2007 FOR THE MAGIC VALLEY.
$$

VMILLS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090056
SWODY1
SPC AC 090053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF NY AND VICINITY...
THOUGH STORM INTENSITY HAS REMAINED VERY LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...00Z RAOBS AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THOUGH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST THAT ANY REMAINING SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING...WILL
MAINTAIN A 5% WIND AREA...AS A VERY LIMITED THREAT FOR BRIEF/LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS STORMS MOVE SEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND VICINITY.

..ELSEWHERE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE EWD-MOVING FRONT FROM UPPER MI SWD
INTO NWRN INDIANA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID AND LOWER
MS VALLEYS INTO TX. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS
EVIDENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY INDICATED ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR FURTHER S WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. THUS -- THOUGH STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS...WILL
DROP BOTH EXISTING LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 10/09/2007

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KBGM [082246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 082246
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM TSTM WND DMG W FREMONT 41.83N 75.05W
10/08/2007 SULLIVAN NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN LONG EDDY

&&

$$

JMA

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KMEG [082141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 082141
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
441 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM FLASH FLOOD GREENFIELD 35.68N 90.72W
10/08/2007 POINSETT AR PUBLIC

WATER STARTING TO COME INTO BUILDING AT THE DELTA AND
PINELAND COMPANY. HIGHWAY 1 TOTALLY COVERED WITH WATER.

0326 PM FLASH FLOOD JONESBORO 35.82N 90.69W
10/08/2007 CRAIGHEAD AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME ROADS ON SOUTH END OF TOWN FLOODING...AND CARS
STALLING DUE TO RISING WATER

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE JONESBORO 35.80N 90.67W
10/08/2007 CRAIGHEAD AR PUBLIC

FLOODING NEAR SOUTH RIDGE FIRE DEPT...HWY 158 EAST OF HWY
163

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S LAFE 36.18N 90.50W
10/08/2007 GREENE AR TRAINED SPOTTER

2 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT AN HOUR CAUSED FLASH
FLOODING

0439 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 35.13N 89.98W
10/08/2007 SHELBY TN PUBLIC

FLOODING AT NEW ALLEN AND RANGE LINE STREETS NEAR
FRAYSER...STREETS IMPASSABLE

&&

$$

DSV

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063

ACUS11 KWNS 082052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082051
CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN NY...FAR NERN PA AND NRN NJ...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082051Z - 082245Z

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.

STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG STATIONARY FRONT AND ARE MOVING SEWD INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES S OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
PRESSURE FALLS AND CONVERGENCE BOTH MAXIMIZED ACROSS SERN NY INTO
NERN PA/NJ WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
AVERAGING AROUND 30 KT...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THEY RIDE SEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.JEWELL.. 10/08/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

41127538 42547730 42907764 43127746 43247710 42907541
42297377 42047298 41717201 41287195 40867223 40517399
41057529

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KMEG [082048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 082048
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM FLASH FLOOD JONESBORO 35.82N 90.69W
10/08/2007 CRAIGHEAD AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME ROADS ON SOUTH END OF TOWN FLOODING...AND CARS
STALLING DUE TO RISING WATER

0325 PM FLASH FLOOD GREENFIELD 35.68N 90.72W
10/08/2007 POINSETT AR PUBLIC

WATER STARTING TO COME INTO BUILDING AT THE DELTA AND
PINELAND COMPANY. HIGHWAY 1 TOTALLY COVERED WITH WATER.

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE JONESBORO 35.80N 90.67W
10/08/2007 CRAIGHEAD AR PUBLIC

FLOODING NEAR SOUTH RIDGE FIRE DEPT...HWY 158 EAST OF HWY
163

&&

$$

DSV

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081945
SWODY1
SPC AC 081942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..GREAT LAKES REGION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL DRIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN MN
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS WI AND IL THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL
LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...REGIONAL
PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND THIS ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A HAIL POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

..OZARK PLATEAU...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SRN MO
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NW AR INTO SE OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS ARE IN THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE BELOW 25 KT
ACCORDING TO REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NRN NY ESEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. UNDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

.BROYLES.. 10/08/2007

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KKEY [081931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 081931
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
331 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/08/2007 M45 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

WIND GUST AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION MEASURED 39
KNOTS IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

COTTRILL

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KSGF [081904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 081904
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
203 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW GAINESVILLE 36.56N 92.48W
10/08/2007 OZARK MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE BLOWN DOWN OVER HWY 5 NORTH OF W HIGHWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00010

$$

BLB

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KSGF [081853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 081853
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM TSTM WND GST 5 E ISABELLA 36.58N 92.52W
10/08/2007 E50.00 MPH OZARK MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

50 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED AT BRYANT FIREHOUSE.

&&

$$

JSS

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KSGF [081816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 081816
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLASH FLOOD NEOSHO 36.87N 94.37W
10/08/2007 NEWTON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREETS REMAIN FLOODED WITHIN NEOSHO CITY LIMITS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00009

$$

BLB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081718
SWODY2
SPC AC 081716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
ESEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDDAY
TUESDAY FROM SRN NY SWWD ACROSS PA...WV INTO THE TN VALLEY. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL MAY BE ACROSS NCNTRL
AND ERN PA WHERE A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AND VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME
STEEP ENOUGH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FOR A
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS.

.BROYLES.. 10/08/2007

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KDLH [081702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 081702
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1201 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM TSTM WND DMG FIFIELD 45.88N 90.42W
10/08/2007 PRICE WI PUBLIC

ONE LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN. SOME WINDOWS BROKEN.

&&

$$

BERDES

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KSGF [081650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 081650
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM FLASH FLOOD NEOSHO 36.87N 94.37W
10/08/2007 NEWTON MO EMERGENCY MNGR

STREETS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS
OF NEOSHO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00008

$$

BLB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081618
SWODY1
SPC AC 081615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MI/WI...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS MORNING...AND WILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL MO AND WILL
ALSO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI/MI/IL TODAY. RATHER STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR OVER WI/MI THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION. ALSO...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY YIELDING SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. DESPITE
THESE POSITIVE FACTORS FOR SEVERE STORMS...THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL
LIMITING FACTORS. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT AIR
OFF LAKE MI INTO THREAT AREA LESSENING THETAE AND INSTABILITY.
ALSO...TIMING OF LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS INDICATE A
NARROW RISK ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST UPPER MI AND NORTHEAST WI. WILL
MAINTAIN AN AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION FOR
CONDITIONAL RISK. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED.

..NY/MA/CT...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S AND YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK...SUGGESTING THAT
UPDRAFTS STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...25-35 KNOT NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. THREAT SHOULD END QUICKLY
AFTER DARK.

.HART/JEWELL.. 10/08/2007

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KTOP [081416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 081416
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
916 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/08/2007 M2.10 INCH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [081405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 081405
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
905 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE HADDAM 39.78N 97.26W
10/08/2007 M2.20 INCH WASHINGTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BYRNE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081245
SWODY1
SPC AC 081242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..WI/UPPER MI AREA TODAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS NEWD TODAY TO THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER REGION BY THIS
EVENING...AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NEWD FROM KS/NEB.
A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW INITIALLY S OF DLH WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ACROSS WRN UPPER MI TODAY...BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED TONIGHT INVOF THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER.
MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 65-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IS PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN WI AND S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
UPPER MI. SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRIPLE POINT
LOW...BUT MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE LIMITED TO AOB 1000 J/KG BY POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AT THE SAME TIME...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN A SMALL AREA IMMEDIATELY
E/SE OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS E/NE WI AND
ADJACENT UPPER MI...WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE. STILL...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE TENDENCY FOR
CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT.

..SRN NY/NE PA AREA TODAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS UPPER MI EXTENDS EWD INTO SW
ONTARIO...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
SHOULD DRIFT NEWD TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND MOISTENS ON
WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NY/PA...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THE 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS
REVEALED THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST
1000-1500 J/KG...BASED ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WHICH ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN SHOWN IN RECENT NAM AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THOUGH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN LARGELY N/NE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE MAY BE A NARROW
CORRIDOR WITH SOME THREAT FOR STORMS WITH BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...AND AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

.THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/08/2007

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KTOP [081220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 081220
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
720 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 AM HEAVY RAIN BLUE RAPIDS 39.68N 96.66W
10/08/2007 M2.00 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [081205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 081205
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 NNW CLIFTON 39.69N 97.34W
10/08/2007 M1.95 INCH WASHINGTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

BYRNE

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KDVN [081051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 081051
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
551 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 AM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
10/08/2007 M5.75 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

$$

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KDVN [081046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 081046
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE MANCHESTER 42.47N 91.45W
10/08/2007 M4.62 INCH DELAWARE IA OTHER FEDERAL

RAINFALL AMOUNT FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AUTOMATED
RIVER GAUGING STATION ON MAQUOKETA RIVER AT
MANCHESTER...AT U.S.HWY 20. RAINFALL AMOUNT IS THROUGH
541 AM CDT.

&&

$$

50

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KKEY [081024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 081024
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
624 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/08/2007 M40 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A RAPIDLY-MOVING SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS
AT THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 504 AM EDT.

&&

$$

BS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080755
SWOD48
SPC AC 080754

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

..DISCUSSION...

OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES OVER MOST
OF THE GULF THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4. BY DAY 5 SURFACE RIDGE MAY HAVE
SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES OR SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY 6 WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS BEING FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MREF MEMBERS. OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF WOULD LIMIT QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TX. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD RETURN IN A NARROW AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY
LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WILL OPT TO
NOT INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE AND SHOW A TREND OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...A RISK AREA
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

.DIAL.. 10/08/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080712
SWODY3
SPC AC 080710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..NM...

MODELS SUGGEST A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER MEAN RIDGE
POSITION THROUGH THE SWRN STATES WEDNESDAY. MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS NM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AT
THIS TIME...THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A RISK AREA.

..ELSEWHERE...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE
DAY. NLY OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE ATLANTIC TO
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS AS CP HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN AND SERN STATES.

ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT IN
THIS REGION.

.DIAL.. 10/08/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080610
SWODY1
SPC AC 080607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NEWD WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY...AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WRN NOAM COAST AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH 09/12Z.

..GREAT LAKES EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/NRN NJ...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SSWWD INTO OK WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD WITH
TIME.

STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LOCALLY...AS PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS UNDERGOES MARGINAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...RESULTING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO SUPPORT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FURTHER E...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE/SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY...INVOF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE
MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS THIS REGION...QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING POSSIBLE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...THOUGH AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS IF IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS
WILL DESTABILIZE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 10/08/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080542
SWODY2
SPC AC 080540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TAKE ON
EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS AS IT EJECTS NEWD AND CLOSES
OFF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WITH RESULTING SUPPRESSION AND
RETROGRESSION OF SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
HAVE OCCLUDED OVER SRN ONTARIO WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A NW-SE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL
PERSIST OVER NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
PACIFIC NW REGION.

..CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY MODEST 20 TO 30 KT WLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW IN WARM SECTOR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL EVOLVE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS. POTENTIAL FOR HEATING MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE SOME DOWN-SLOPING MAY OCCUR.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 10/08/2007

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KOAX [080444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 080444
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM HAIL 5 E PENDER 42.11N 96.61W
10/07/2007 E0.88 INCH THURSTON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

JB

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KDVN [080413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 080413
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1113 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.45W
10/07/2007 DELAWARE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

2 FEET OF WATER ON THE MAIN FLOOR...INSIDE THE
ADMINISTRATION BUILDING AT THE WEST DELAWARE COUNTY
COMMUNITY SCHOOL DISTRICT/S SCHOOL BUS GARAGE PROPERTY.
LOCATED AT 600 LIBERTY ST. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

50

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