MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063

ACUS11 KWNS 082052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082051
CTZ000-NYZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND SERN NY...FAR NERN PA AND NRN NJ...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082051Z - 082245Z

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY.

STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG STATIONARY FRONT AND ARE MOVING SEWD INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES S OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
PRESSURE FALLS AND CONVERGENCE BOTH MAXIMIZED ACROSS SERN NY INTO
NERN PA/NJ WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
AVERAGING AROUND 30 KT...STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THEY RIDE SEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.JEWELL.. 10/08/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

41127538 42547730 42907764 43127746 43247710 42907541
42297377 42047298 41717201 41287195 40867223 40517399
41057529

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