MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067

ACUS11 KWNS 050238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050237
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COASTAL AREAS OF LA/MS/AL AND SRN FL
PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 050237Z - 050330Z

BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THIS REGION. THREAT
APPEARS TOO MRGL...ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FOR WW. POTENTIAL
SHOULD PERSIST SPORADICALLY THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
THIS STRETCH OF GULF COAST...AS NOTED IN LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM RELATIVELY SMALL AND
DISCRETE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
EITHER
1. MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER CINH INLAND OR
2. MERGE WITH MORE DISORGANIZED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
ARES FROM SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE WWD...LOCALLY/EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED
SWD BY CURRENT AND PRIOR AREAS OF PRECIP. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS
WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER NARROW CORRIDOR IS EVIDENT WHERE NRN
EDGE OF OPTIMALLY SUPPORTIVE...HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH 0-1 KM SRH STRENGTHENING INLAND. LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS
SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS...DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND. ALTHOUGH BUOYANT LAYER IN
THESE SOUNDINGS EXTENDS TO AROUND 125 MB...LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW
LEVEL LIFT S OF FRONT MAY BE KEEPING DISCRETE/OCEANIC CONVECTION
SHALLOWER...GIVEN APPARENT WARM-CLOUD CHARACTER AND LACK OF LTG IN
THAT ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENT LOOSELY APPROXIMATES THAT OF MRGL
TC-TORNADO SITUATION...BUT WITHOUT SUCH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING.
STREAMLINING VWP WINDS INDICATES WEAK 850 MB CONFLUENCE LINE FROM
CENTRAL AL SWD TO NEAR PNS THEN SWWD OVER GULF...SRN PORTION OF
WHICH CORRESPONDS TO BKN BAND OF CONVECTION S OF GZH. CONVECTION
MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED INVOF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD...BUT ISOLATED/ROTATING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON EITHER
SIDE AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29889313 30179128 30519077 30658804 30708668 30658615
29778482 29658485 29598502 29678520 29668536 29878544
29728530 29838529 29958540 30008556 30238587 30368636
30398669 30328726 30228804 30198839 30238871 30238896
30158920 29918923 29718938 29588957 29398948 29508921
29748891 29908883 30078885 29948877 29748885 29548905
29388932 29338915 29248911 29198898 28988916 29108926
28868945 29078934 29138945 29238949 29328983 29288992
29099017 29079032 29069099 29119088 29189096 29199119
29319136 29409121 29499131 29539147 29509157 29639158
29639166 29759164 29579172 29459179 29599207 29579222
29539228 29569263 29889313

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KEWX [050223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 050223
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0921 PM FLASH FLOOD CUERO 29.09N 97.29W
10/04/2009 DEWITT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 1447 UNDER WATER IN STRETCHES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900159

$$

AKF

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KPIH [050117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 050117
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
716 PM MDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW GANNETT 43.33N 114.27W
10/04/2009 M1.50 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION.

0535 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S TABER 43.25N 112.63W
10/04/2009 M0.42 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN PAST 12 HOURS.

0655 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N LAGO 42.50N 111.68W
10/04/2009 M0.25 INCH CARIBOU ID TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN PAST 12 HOURS.

0655 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW HAILEY 43.54N 114.32W
10/04/2009 M1.25 INCH BLAINE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

GWICKLUN

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KLCH [050110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 050110
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
809 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM TORNADO 1 SSW CHURCH POINT 30.39N 92.22W
10/04/2009 ACADIA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ACADIANA SHERIFF REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHURCH POINT OFF OF GULF COURSE ROAD.
POWER LINES AND TRANSFORMERS REPORTED DOWN WITH DAMAGE TO
A BARN.

&&

$$

DJONES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST STATES...
ROUGHLY WEST-EAST WARM/MARINE FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED/SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN ADDITION TO A
TENDENCY FOR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODEST BUOYANCY INLAND AND/OR MODEST DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK.
NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
MAINLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COASTAL AREAS.

...NORTHEAST UT/NORTHWEST CO INTO WY...
AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN...COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT
IN SOME HAIL YET THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z GRAND
JUNCTION OBSERVED RAOB INDICATIVE OF AROUND 600 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUGGESTIVE OF
WANING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS TO
SEVERE LEVELS.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2066

ACUS11 KWNS 050032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050031
MTZ000-WYZ000-050630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-NRN WY AND SRN MT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 050031Z - 050630Z

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROBABLE
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-NRN WY AND SRN MT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE ALONG ERN SLOPES OF
NORTH-SOUTH MOUNTAIN RANGES.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A 100+ KT H25 JET WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE
NRN GREAT BASIN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
OPEN UP SLIGHTLY AND LIFT ENE. AS A RESULT...LARGE SCALE LIFT IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NRN WY AND SRN MT...WITH THE STRONGEST
MESOSCALE ASCENT /LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WAA/ FORECAST TO BECOME
MAXIMIZED INVOF THE WY/MT BORDER TOWARD 06Z AS A 50 KT SLY 700 MB
SPEED MAX ENCOUNTERS ELY LOW LVL FLOW OVER MT. PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THESE
FEATURES...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR INITIALLY EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-NRN WY BY 03Z...AND THEN SPREADING TOWARD AND
EVENTUALLY N OF THE WY/MT BORDER BETWEEN 06-09Z. IN ADDITION...LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE ALONG ERN
SLOPES OF NORTH-SOUTH MOUNTAIN RANGES /SUCH AS THE BIGHORNS IN NRN
WY AND ABSAROKA RANGE IN NWRN WY AND SWRN-SRN MT/ IN RESPONSE TO
ENELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL INITIALLY BE PRESENT OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY LOCATED ABOVE 5000 FT
MSL...BUT FALLING BELOW 5000 FT MSL AFTER 06Z IN RESPONSE TO DYNAMIC
AND UPSLOPE COOLING AS WELL AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

..GARNER.. 10/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 46690746 46240535 45020454 43710556 43170891 43681027
44971086 46180986 46690746

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KGJT [042342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 042342
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
541 PM MDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.55W
10/04/2009 M48.00 MPH MESA CO ASOS

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 27 N CANYONLANDS NATION 38.79N 109.88W
10/04/2009 M48.00 MPH GRAND UT ASOS

MEASURED AT CANYONLANDS AIRPORT.

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CRAIG 40.52N 107.55W
10/04/2009 M48.00 MPH MOFFAT CO ASOS

&&

$$

MSCHWIT

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KAMA [042335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 042335
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM WILDFIRE 6 SE HEREFORD 34.76N 102.32W
10/02/2009 M362 ACRE DEAF SMITH TX NEWSPAPER

WILDFIRE LOCATED NEAR FARM TO MARKET ROAD 2943 AND
COUNTY ROAD 1. A FEW HOMES WERE EVACUATED JUST FOR
SAFETY PURPOSES...HOWEVER NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND NO
INJURIES WERE REPORTED. THE WILDFIRE WAS FINALLY
CONTAINED BY 1430 CDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0900244

$$

KJS

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KEWX [041553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041553
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N WINDCREST 29.55N 98.38W
10/04/2009 BEXAR TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

WEIDNER RD AT SCHERTZ RD CLOSED NUMEROUS RDS CLOSED IN
CO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900150

$$

JPB

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KEWX [041531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041531
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1031 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1028 AM HEAVY RAIN YOAKUM 29.29N 97.15W
10/04/2009 M11.00 INCH DEWITT TX PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAINFALL... MOSTLY SINCE 6 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900149

$$

JPB

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KEWX [041529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041529
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LIVE OAK 29.59N 98.39W
10/04/2009 M11.13 INCH BEXAR TX COCORAHS

MOSTLY FELL BETWEEN 4 AM AND 7 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900148

$$

JPB

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KEWX [041519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041519
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 N NEW BERLIN 29.52N 98.10W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CR465 NEAR SANTA CLARA CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. OTHER
CLOSED ROADS IN THE COUNTY INCLUDE CRS 775...539... 467

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900147

$$

JPB

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KEWX [041452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041452
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
952 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW YOAKUM 29.35N 97.16W
10/04/2009 LAVACA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE HIGHWAY 95 FROM MOULTON TO YOAKUM CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900145

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041449
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0921 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 SSW CUERO 28.99N 97.34W
10/04/2009 M1.05 INCH DEWITT TX COCORAHS

1.05 INCHES IN THE PAST 16 MINS SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
CUERO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900144

$$

CJM

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KMFR [041448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041448
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
735 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 AM SNOW 17 SW ALTURAS 41.32N 120.78W
10/04/2009 M2.0 INCH MODOC CA PUBLIC

6 HOUR AMOUNT. NEAR CALIFORNIA PINES. ELEVATION 6200
FEET.

0732 AM SNOW N TENNANT 41.59N 121.91W
10/04/2009 M1.5 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HOUR TOTAL. ELEVATION 4900 FEET.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KEWX [041445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 041445
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SPRING BRANCH 29.89N 98.37W
10/03/2009 M2.90 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

2.90 INCHES OF RAIN OVER AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR SPRING
BRANCH.

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD TIMBERWOOD PARK 29.71N 98.48W
10/03/2009 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND
TIMBERWOOD PARK

0444 PM HAIL MCQUEENEY 29.60N 98.05W
10/03/2009 E0.25 INCH GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND 440 PM.

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.68N 98.16W
10/03/2009 M1.27 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 1.27 INCHES SO FAR... WITH
0.76 INCHES IN THE PAST 19 MINUTES.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ZORN 29.79N 98.06W
10/03/2009 M2.10 INCH COMAL TX CO-OP OBSERVER

2.10 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS.

0514 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 SE CEDAR CREEK 29.99N 97.42W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

LOWER REDROCK ROAD AT FM 535 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 S CEDAR CREEK 30.00N 97.51W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM812 AT FM672 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW CEDAR CREEK 30.02N 97.54W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHVIEW RANCH ROAD AT FM 812 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0514 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 SSE CEDAR CREEK 29.97N 97.44W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM20 AT CEDAR HOLLOW CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0543 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 E ROSANKY 29.93N 97.25W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FM 535 BETWEEN SMITHVILLE AND ROSANKY CLOSED DUE TO 3-4
INCHES OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE ROSANKY 29.97N 97.27W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER RESCUE CURRENTLY ONGOING ON FM 535 BETWEEN
SMITHVILLE AND ROSANKY

0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW BASTROP 30.04N 97.36W
10/03/2009 M2.79 INCH BASTROP TX COCORAHS

2.79 INCHES SO FAR... WITH 1.95 INCHES IN THE PAST 2
HOURS.

0628 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.01W
10/04/2009 M5.80 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

5.80 INCHES OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW BERLIN.

0652 AM HEAVY RAIN SMILEY 29.27N 97.64W
10/04/2009 M3.49 INCH GONZALES TX COCORAHS

3.49 INCHES OF RAIN WITH 2.14 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 30 MINS NEAR SMILEY.

0709 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.69N 98.17W
10/04/2009 M5.78 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

5.78 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS WITH
2.12 INCHES OCCURING OVER THE PAST 30 MINS.

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW GARDEN RIDGE 29.64N 98.32W
10/04/2009 M7.16 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

7.16 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 6.55 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR GARDEN RIDGE.

0802 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.65N 98.18W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ON SOUTH I-35 REPORTED WATER ON THE ROAD
BETWEEN EXIT 180 AND 183.

0821 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 N SAN MARCOS 29.96N 97.93W
10/04/2009 M6.32 INCH HAYS TX COCORAHS

6.32 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS WITH 4.32 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 19 HOURS.

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.02W
10/04/2009 M8.01 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

8.01 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 2.21 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 51 MINS.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD SEGUIN 29.58N 97.97W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GUADALUPE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS OVER 30 ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROADWAYS

0910 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 N NIXON 29.30N 97.76W
10/04/2009 GONZALES TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HWY 80 AT FM 1117 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0911 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 E HOLLYWOOD PARK 29.60N 98.42W
10/04/2009 BEXAR TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BULVERDE ROAD AT CLASSEN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0932 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 NNE GARDEN RIDGE 29.71N 98.24W
10/04/2009 COMAL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FM 1863 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0934 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW HOCHHEIM 29.31N 97.31W
10/04/2009 DEWITT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE HIGHWAY 111 EAST OF HOCHHEIM CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900120 EWX0900121 EWX0900122 EWX0900123 EWX0900128
EWX0900124 EWX0900125 EWX0900126 EWX0900127 EWX0900129 EWX0900131
EWX0900130 EWX0900132 EWX0900134 EWX0900133 EWX0900135 EWX0900136
EWX0900137 EWX0900138 EWX0900139 EWX0900140 EWX0900141 EWX0900142
EWX0900143

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 041442
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE SPRING BRANCH 29.89N 98.37W
10/03/2009 M2.90 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

2.90 INCHES OF RAIN OVER AN HOUR AND A HALF NEAR SPRING
BRANCH.

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD TIMBERWOOD PARK 29.71N 98.48W
10/03/2009 BEXAR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN AROUND
TIMBERWOOD PARK

0444 PM HAIL MCQUEENEY 29.60N 98.05W
10/03/2009 E0.25 INCH GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND 440 PM.

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.68N 98.16W
10/03/2009 M1.27 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 1.27 INCHES SO FAR... WITH
0.76 INCHES IN THE PAST 19 MINUTES.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ZORN 29.79N 98.06W
10/03/2009 M2.10 INCH COMAL TX CO-OP OBSERVER

2.10 INCHES OF RAIN NORTH NORTHEAST OF NEW BRAUNFELS.

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE ROSANKY 29.97N 97.27W
10/03/2009 BASTROP TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER RESCUE CURRENTLY ONGOING ON FM 535 BETWEEN
SMITHVILLE AND ROSANKY

0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW BASTROP 30.04N 97.36W
10/03/2009 M2.79 INCH BASTROP TX COCORAHS

2.79 INCHES SO FAR... WITH 1.95 INCHES IN THE PAST 2
HOURS.

0628 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.01W
10/04/2009 M5.80 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

5.80 INCHES OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW BERLIN.

0652 AM HEAVY RAIN SMILEY 29.27N 97.64W
10/04/2009 M3.49 INCH GONZALES TX COCORAHS

3.49 INCHES OF RAIN WITH 2.14 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 30 MINS NEAR SMILEY.

0709 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.69N 98.17W
10/04/2009 M5.78 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

5.78 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS WITH
2.12 INCHES OCCURING OVER THE PAST 30 MINS.

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW GARDEN RIDGE 29.64N 98.32W
10/04/2009 M7.16 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

7.16 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 6.55 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR GARDEN RIDGE.

0821 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 N SAN MARCOS 29.96N 97.93W
10/04/2009 M6.32 INCH HAYS TX COCORAHS

6.32 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS WITH 4.32 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 19 HOURS.

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.02W
10/04/2009 M8.01 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

8.01 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 2.21 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 51 MINS.

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD SEGUIN 29.58N 97.97W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GUADALUPE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS OVER 30 ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROADWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900120 EWX0900121 EWX0900122 EWX0900123 EWX0900128
EWX0900131 EWX0900130 EWX0900132 EWX0900134 EWX0900133 EWX0900135
EWX0900137 EWX0900138 EWX0900139

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041437
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0934 AM FLOOD 1 SW HOCHHEIM 29.31N 97.31W
10/04/2009 DEWITT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE HIGHWAY 111 EAST OF HOCHHEIM CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900143

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041434
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0932 AM FLOOD 6 NNE GARDEN RIDGE 29.71N 98.24W
10/04/2009 COMAL TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FM 1863 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900142

$$

CJM

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KVEF [041428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 041428
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
728 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 NW SLOAN 35.98N 115.27W
10/04/2009 CLARK NV NWS EMPLOYEE

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREA OF THE MOUNTAINS EDGE COMMUNITY. SEVERAL 8-10 FOOT
TREES BLOWN DOWN. LARGE WOODEN SIGN DESTROYED.

&&

$$

ASG

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KEWX [041414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041414
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0911 AM FLOOD 4 E HOLLYWOOD PARK 29.60N 98.42W
10/04/2009 BEXAR TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BULVERDE ROAD AT CLASSEN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900141

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041411
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
911 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM FLOOD 2 N NIXON 29.30N 97.76W
10/04/2009 GONZALES TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HWY 80 AT FM 1117 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900140

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041407
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
906 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FLASH FLOOD SEGUIN 29.58N 97.97W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GUADALUPE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS OVER 30 ROAD
CLOSURES ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROADWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900139

$$

JME

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KMFR [041354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041354
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
654 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 AM SNOW 6 NNE LAKEVIEW 42.27N 120.30W
10/04/2009 M3.0 INCH LAKE OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WARNER MOUNTAIN SUMMIT. ELEVATION 5650 FEET. AMOUNT SINCE
MIDNIGHT. ROADS SNOW PACKED.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KREV [041353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041353
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
652 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
10/04/2009 E6.5 INCH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION SINCE 11 PM SATURDAY NIGHT. STILLL SNOWING
LIGHTLY. ELEVATION 4800 FEET.

&&

$$

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KEWX [041344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041344
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
844 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.02W
10/04/2009 M8.01 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

8.01 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 2.21 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 51 MINS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900138

$$

CJM

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KMFR [041329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041329
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
629 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 AM SNOW LAKEVIEW 42.19N 120.35W
10/04/2009 M2.0 INCH LAKE OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AMOUNT IS SINCE MIDNIGHT. ROADS SLUSHY.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KEWX [041323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041323
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
823 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 N SAN MARCOS 29.96N 97.93W
10/04/2009 M6.32 INCH HAYS TX COCORAHS

6.32 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS WITH 4.32 INCHES OVER
THE PAST 19 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900137

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041307
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
807 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0802 AM FLOOD 5 SW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.65N 98.18W
10/04/2009 GUADALUPE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ON SOUTH I-35 REPORTED WATER ON THE ROAD
BETWEEN EXIT 180 AND 183.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900136

$$

CJM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041303
SWODY1
SPC AC 041259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLNS/MID MS VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...ON SRN FRINGE OF
ELONGATED UPR TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPR LOWS OVER THE GRT BASIN AND
UPR GRT LKS. A BIT FARTHER S...SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST FROM
AZ/NM ACROSS THE OZARKS TO THE TN VLY. SATELLITE AND VWP DATA
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE LATTER BAND OF FLOW
NOW OVER CNTRL TX. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE LWR MS
VLY/CNTRL GULF CST BY EVE...WITH SLIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN PLNS IN ITS WAKE.

AT THE SFC...COMPLEX WARM/STNRY FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM S
CNTRL/SE TX INTO THE NRN GULF. THE ERN PART OF THIS FRONT MAY
MOVE/REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT N INTO SRN LA LATER TODAY AS UPR IMPULSE
CONTINUES EWD AND SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION. BUT SUBSTANTIAL
NEWD MOVEMENT INTO THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN
LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF SFC RIDGE OVER GA AND THE TN VLY.

...S CNTRL/SE TX TO CNTRL GULF CST...
UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THE MIDDLE/UPR TX CSTL PLN EWD INTO SRN LA LATER TODAY. MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT VERY MOIST/WEAKLY CONFLUENT
LOW-LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE INVOF WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS...WHERE MODEST SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S F MAY
YIELD POCKETS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE. 30+ KT MID LVL WLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND A THREAT
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LCL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ISOLD STG/DMGG WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR...MAINLY IN ANY AREAS OF GREATER SFC HEATING.

...SRN HI PLNS...AFTER 5/06Z...
WDLY SCTD TO SCTD TSTMS MAY FORM EARLY MON FROM W CNTRL TX NWD INTO
NW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE....AS WAA STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE GRT BASIN TROUGH. NARROW...MERIDIONAL PLUME OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG 30+ KT SSELY LLJ. . VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST WEAK STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH 30-35 KT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR. ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/MAINLY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DO FORM. HOWEVER... OUTSIDE
OF LOW LVL WAA...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK/NON
EXISTENT. THUS...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/04/2009

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KEWX [041254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041254
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
753 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW GARDEN RIDGE 29.64N 98.32W
10/04/2009 M7.16 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

7.16 INCHES REPORTED OVER 24 HOURS WITH 6.55 INCHES
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR GARDEN RIDGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900135

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041249
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
749 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 AM HEAVY RAIN SMILEY 29.27N 97.64W
10/04/2009 M3.49 INCH GONZALES TX COCORAHS

3.49 INCHES OF RAIN WITH 2.14 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 30 MINS NEAR SMILEY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900134

$$

CJM

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KVEF [041233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 041233
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
533 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OAK CREEK RAWS 36.84N 118.26W
10/04/2009 M66 MPH INYO CA MESONET

&&

$$

JENSEN

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KEWX [041211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041211
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW NEW BRAUNFELS 29.69N 98.17W
10/04/2009 M5.78 INCH COMAL TX COCORAHS

5.78 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED NEAR NEW BRAUNFELS WITH
2.12 INCHES OCCURING OVER THE PAST 30 MINS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900133

$$

CJM

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KEWX [041206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 041206
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
706 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE NEW BERLIN 29.40N 98.01W
10/04/2009 M5.80 INCH GUADALUPE TX COCORAHS

5.80 INCHES OF RAIN OVER TWO HOURS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NEW BERLIN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900132

$$

CJM

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KVEF [041132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 041132
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
432 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MERCURY 36.66N 116.00W
10/04/2009 M62 MPH NYE NV MESONET

0234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE RED ROCK CANYON 36.13N 115.43W
10/04/2009 M77 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

0315 AM NON-TSTM WND GST N AREA 16 EAST (NTS A22 36.91N 116.17W
10/04/2009 M63 MPH NYE NV MESONET

&&

$$

JENSEN

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KREV [041100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041100
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
400 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 AM SNOW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.98W
10/04/2009 E2.0 INCH EL DORADO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AVERAGE OF 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AREA FROM EL
DORADO SHERIFF DEPUTIES.

0350 AM SNOW STATELINE 38.96N 119.94W
10/04/2009 E4.0 INCH EL DORADO NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED BY DOUGLAS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTIES.

0350 AM SNOW GARDNERVILLE 38.94N 119.74W
10/04/2009 E2.0 INCH DOUGLAS NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES BUT NO ACCUMULATION ON
ROADS.

&&

$$

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KREV [041010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041010
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM SNOW 4 SSE COLEVILLE 38.52N 119.47W
10/04/2009 M3.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING HEAVILY. 5400 FEET

&&

$$

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KOTX [040930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 040930
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
229 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SE WENATCHEE 47.41N 120.29W
10/04/2009 CHELAN WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF DAMAGE TO A BUILDING NEAR THE WENATCHEE AIRPORT KEAT

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW WENATCHEE 47.47N 120.36W
10/04/2009 CHELAN WA TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND BLEW SIDING OFF OF HOUSE...WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT
50+ MPH...SPOTTER NUMBER CH74

&&

$$

SVANHORN

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040853
SWOD48
SPC AC 040853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...IN SHIFTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DAY
4 /WED. OCT. 7/.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT BEGINS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY
4...AS SEMI-PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 4 ACROSS W TX INVOF THE
LINGERING/INITIAL FRONT...AND THEN INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 5
/THU. OCT. 8/ AS THE SECOND FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED
HOWEVER...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A THREAT AREA ATTM.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE SHIFTING THIS FRONT EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND
SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DAY 6. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONT INVOF THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 6...AS
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND LOCATION OF CYCLOGENESIS ARE
SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH DAYS 7-8.
THUS...DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH TIME PRECLUDES ANY
FORECAST FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2009

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KPQR [040839]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 040839
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
139 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM WATER SPOUT 5 W NEWPORT 44.63N 124.16W
10/03/2009 PZZ255 OR TRAINED SPOTTER

MARINE WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 5
MILES WEST OF NEWPORT MOVING SOUTH.

&&

$$

TW

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KPDT [040817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 040817
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
117 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 ENE WEST VALLEY 46.62N 120.51W
10/03/2009 YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE YAKIMA VALLEY.
NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AS WELL AS POLE
FIRES. CONFIRMED BY YAKIMA COUNTY SHERIFF.

&&

$$

RCALDER

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040732
SWODY3
SPC AC 040729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW LINGERS/DRIFTS SSEWD OVER CA AND THE
ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC...A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR COURSE...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION...BUT MORE SLOWLY SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
AND TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS NE TX...
PRECIPITATION/EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EWD.

SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
VALLEY REGION SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND WWD INTO TX...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SEWD/SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.

AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ENE-WSW ORIENTED WITH TIME...STRONGER FLOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE FRONT.
THUS...SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE GENERALLY MODEST.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INVOF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT BEST. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY INVOF THE FRONT TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT ONLY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2009

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KREV [040704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 040704
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1204 AM PDT SUN OCT 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM SNOW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.98W
10/03/2009 M1.0 INCH EL DORADO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

1.0 INCH OF SNOWFALL WAS REPORTED ON GRASSY SURFACES IN
THE SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AREA. SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY NOT
ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS.

1156 PM SNOW 13 S YERINGTON 38.80N 119.16W
10/03/2009 M2.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 2.0 INCHES ON ALL SURFACES WITH 3.0-4.0
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY SURFACES AND VEHICLES AT
4275 FEET. ACCUMULATION STARTED AT 1030 PM. SPOTTER ALSO
REPORTED A POWER OUTAGE.

&&

$$

MCGUIRE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2064

ACUS11 KWNS 040649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040648
TXZ000-040845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040648Z - 040845Z

THREAT FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX. AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS CONDITIONAL...AND A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY UNLESS TRENDS
BEGIN TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION.

EARLY THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN TX JUST
SOUTH OF HOUSTON WWD TO NEAR COTULLA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN S TX WARM SECTOR
WHERE MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS EXIST. INSTABILITY BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT ONTO COOLER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THIS REGION EXHIBIT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS S-CNTRL...CNTRL AND SERN TX
WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. VWP DATA CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SIZEABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY FROM 200-300 M2/S2 NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO ELY. HOWEVER...STABLE LAYER NEAR THE
SURFACE SUGGESTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS PROBABLY
LESS THAN 200 M2/S2. SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES...AN OBSERVED WEAKNESS IN THE WIND PROFILES BETWEEN 2
AND 3 KM AND NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER SHOULD SERVE AS POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 29029541 28649759 28619963 29399959 29649905 29689708
29579545 29029541

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KVEF [040602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 040602
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1102 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW MERCURY 36.62N 116.02W
10/03/2009 M58 MPH NYE NV MESONET

&&

$$

MORGAN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040547
SWODY2
SPC AC 040545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD TOWARD ERN
QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE N CENTRAL U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
AN UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WRN TROUGH -- INITIALLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/SRN ID/WRN UT REGION -- IS PROGGED TO EJECT EWD WITH
TIME...THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS EJECTION.
LATEST RUNS SHIFT THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
DAKOTAS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL THEN REDEVELOP
NEWD ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO/ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY REGION LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRAILING FRONT WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NERN
KS/NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS OK AND INTO FAR W TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...S CENTRAL CONUS...
WITH A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS...AND
THUS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT INTO/ACROSS THE
PLAINS...POTENTIAL SEVERE EVENT FORECAST FOR MON APPEARS
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL.

MORE EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR CAPPING IS NOW FORECAST ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL TX...WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL TO THE W. SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR NEAR A LEE TROUGH...BUT LACK OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- AS STRONGER UPPER FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE N -- SUGGESTS ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.

FARTHER N ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO KS...STORMS ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED...AS LESS ROBUST NWD RETURN OF HIGHER THETA-E
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL BE ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE SLOWER
EJECTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. WHILE STRONG SHEAR AND 500 TO 1000
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE COULD ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE
MARGINAL HAIL...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANY MORE
THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040453
SWODY1
SPC AC 040450

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY
THREE PRIMARY FEATURES...
1. BROAD CYCLONE LIFTING NWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER NRN ONT.
2. STRONGER VORTEX DIGGING SWD FROM NWRN GREAT BASIN...THEN PIVOTING
EWD OR ENEWD ACROSS NV...WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS
OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION...AND BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS NW OF GULF COAST CONVECTIVE REGIME.
3. BROAD FETCH OF WSWLY SRN STREAM FLOW FROM NRN MEX ACROSS WRN GULF
COAST REGION...WITHIN WHICH HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO RISE THROUGH MOST OF
PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SRN RIM OF UPPER JET WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL TX...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT.

ON SMALLER SCALES...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/REINFORCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY LOBE...APPARENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN TSTM CLUSTER OVER SRN
GULF OF CA THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF TD OLAF. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THIS
FEATURE BUT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN ITS DOWNSTREAM PASSAGE ACROSS
S TX...SOMETIME DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN TIME SERIES OF PLANAR VWP DATA OVER MID/UPPER
TX COAST ATTM...WILL MOVE ACROSS LA COAST EARLY IN PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NEAR COT
ACROSS TX COASTAL BEND...OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST AND WRN LA...AND
ACROSS SERN LA -- IS FCST TO LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
SRN/CENTRAL TX AND SRN LA. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW LAY DEVELOP OVER
SE TX OR SWRN LA AS SRN-STREAM/MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS.
WRN SEGMENT OF WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT FARTHER NWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND SW TX...WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AMIDST
BROAD/LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.

...S-CENTRAL/SE TX...SRN LA...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT OF NWD MOTION OF
WARM FRONT...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND PRECIP TO
ITS N FOR MUCH OF PERIOD. WEAK TROUGH ALOFT NOW OVER MID/UPPER TX
COAST MAY AID IN MAINTAINING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION
OFFSHORE UPPER TX COAST AND LA EARLY IN PERIOD AND DELAY NWD FRONTAL
RETREAT OVER THERE. LAPSE RATES ALOFT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
MRGLLY UNSTABLE...AS MESOSCALE/WEAK DPVA REGIONALLY COUNTERACTS
BROADER STABILIZING EFFECTS ALOFT FROM SYNOPTIC HEIGHT RISES AND
PLUME OF TROPICAL MID-UPPER AIR ADVECTING FROM NWRN MEX.
LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WITHIN AND S OF SFC
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S AND SFC HEATING OVER
LAND AREAS REMOVED FROM CLOUD COVER. MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST S OF EFFECTIVE FRONT. PRIND BOUNDARY WILL
NOT RETREAT NWD AS FAST AS FAVORABLE MID-UPPER WINDS OVER REGION.
THIS EFFECT SHOULD MAKE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
SHORT-LIVED...HEAVY-PRECIP IN MODE...AND TORNADO THREAT VERY MRGL
AND CONDITIONAL ON BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING
GUSTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...AFTER 5/06Z...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN PERIOD
WITHIN SWATH FROM W-CENTRAL TX NWD ACROSS PORTIONS NW TX AND
PANHANDLE. NARROW...LARGELY MERIDIONAL PLUME OF VIGOROUS MOIST
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT IS FCST WITHIN BROADER LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE. AS
THETAE INCREASES WITHIN 30-40 KT LLJ OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY MOIST
PARCELS MAY BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC. FCST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MRGL STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH
PROGGED EFFECTIVE SHEAR VARYING FROM 30-35 KT RANGE FOR SHALLOW/WEAK
MUCAPES TO NEAR 500 J/KG...AS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS...TO 50-60 KT
RANGE FOR VERY DEEP MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG PER ETA-KF. MOST
AGGRESSIVE PROGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...DESPITE MEAGER MID-UPPER LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO ASSIGN AOA
5-PERCENT UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD.

..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 10/04/2009

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KVEF [040435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 040435
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
935 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MERCURY 36.66N 116.00W
10/03/2009 M59.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

MEASURED AT THE MERCURY AREA 23 MESONET SITE AT ELEVATION
3676 FEET.

&&

$$

KLABELLE

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