DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040853
SWOD48
SPC AC 040853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...IN SHIFTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DAY
4 /WED. OCT. 7/.

MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT BEGINS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY
4...AS SEMI-PHASED NRN AND SRN STREAM TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 4 ACROSS W TX INVOF THE
LINGERING/INITIAL FRONT...AND THEN INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 5
/THU. OCT. 8/ AS THE SECOND FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED
HOWEVER...NEGATING THE NEED FOR A THREAT AREA ATTM.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE SHIFTING THIS FRONT EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND
SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST DAY 6. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONT INVOF THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 6...AS
THE SRN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND LOCATION OF CYCLOGENESIS ARE
SIGNIFICANT HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY THROUGH DAYS 7-8.
THUS...DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS WITH TIME PRECLUDES ANY
FORECAST FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2009

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