KKEY [061833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 061833
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
133 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0114 PM MARINE TSTM WIND FORT JEFFERSON AT DRY T 24.63N 82.87W
03/06/2014 M42 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT AN AUTOMATED
STATION AT FORT JEFFERSON NATIONAL MONUMENT AT DRY
TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
THROUGH.


&&

$$

11

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KMFL [061830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 061830
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1257 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ESE LELY 26.11N 81.69W
03/06/2014 M56 MPH COLLIER FL MESONET

MESONET AT COLLIER COUNTY EOC RECORDED A WIND GUST FROM
THE WEST AT 56 MPH. THE SITE ELEVATION IS APPROXIMATELY
50 TO 60 FEET.


&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1400088

$$

ROSS

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KOTX [061826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KOTX 061826
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1025 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLOOD 3 N REARDAN 47.71N 117.88W
03/05/2014 LINCOLN WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 231 CLOSED FROM REARDAN TO INTERSECTION OF
STATE ROUTE 291 IN SOUTHERN STEVENS COUNTY. REPORT ON
WASHINGTON DOT WEB SITE.

0419 PM FLOOD 5 NW COEUR D'ALENE 47.74N 116.84W
03/05/2014 KOOTENAI ID BROADCAST MEDIA

PRAIRIE AVENUE BETWEEN HUETTER AND ATLAS CLOSED. LOCAL
MEDIA TWITTER REPORT.

0500 PM FLOOD SPANGLE 47.43N 117.38W
03/05/2014 SPOKANE WA BROADCAST MEDIA

SPANGLE CREEK CAME OUT OF ITS BANKS RESULTING IN WATER
SURROUNDING HOMES WITH BASEMENT FLOODING IN A 3 MILE
STRETCH.

0504 PM DEBRIS FLOW 4 N ROSALIA 47.29N 117.37W
03/05/2014 SPOKANE WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROCK SLIDE BLOCKING SR 195 AT MILEPOST 68, BETWEEN
ROSALIA AND PLAZA. ONE VEHICLE HIT BY ROCKS.

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN Sacheen Lake 48.17N 117.31W
03/06/2014 M1.09 INCH PEND OREILLE WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0111 AM FLOOD 10 NW SPRAGUE 47.40N 118.13W
03/06/2014 LINCOLN WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR 23 CLOSED FROM MP 44-66 FOR WATER AND MUD OVER ROADWAY


0111 AM FLOOD 10 NE SPRAGUE 47.40N 117.82W
03/06/2014 SPOKANE WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SR231 CLOSED MP 0-28 DUE TO WATER AND MUD OVER ROADWAY

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW CLAYTON 47.98N 117.61W
03/06/2014 M1.21 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-ST-1

0600 AM FLOOD 1 NNE HAYDEN LAKE 47.78N 116.74W
03/06/2014 KOOTENAI ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE ROAD WASHOUT 10 FEET ACROSS AND 8 FEET DEEP ON
RIMROCK ROAD DUE TO FAILED CULVERT BECAUSE OF HEAVY
RUNOFF. 2 CARS DROVE INTO DITCH WITH 3 INJURIES. 150
RESIDENTS WITHOUT WATER.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E SPIRIT LAKE 47.96N 116.79W
03/06/2014 M1.15 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-1

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 W NEWPORT 48.18N 117.17W
03/06/2014 M1.09 INCH PEND OREILLE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-PO-9

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW COEUR D'ALENE 47.71N 116.84W
03/06/2014 M1.08 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-8

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN PRICHARD 3 ESE 47.64N 115.92W
03/06/2014 M1.25 INCH SHOSHONE ID CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SSW COEUR D'ALENE 47.60N 116.84W
03/06/2014 M1.21 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-12

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E CHENEY 47.49N 117.47W
03/06/2014 M1.02 INCH SPOKANE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-SP-11

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE ATHOL 47.95N 116.68W
03/06/2014 M1.03 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-3

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SW DOVER 48.25N 116.61W
03/06/2014 M1.21 INCH BONNER ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-BR-19

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW RATHDRUM 47.79N 116.90W
03/06/2014 M1.13 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-5

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE HAYDEN 47.83N 116.73W
03/06/2014 M1.27 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-19

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW HAYDEN 47.77N 116.80W
03/06/2014 M1.12 INCH KOOTENAI ID TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS ID-KT-21

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW METALINE FALLS 48.86N 117.37W
03/06/2014 M1.04 INCH PEND OREILLE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS WA-PO-10

0800 AM FLOOD BONNERS FERRY 48.69N 116.32W
03/06/2014 BOUNDARY ID BROADCAST MEDIA

STANDING WATER IN BONNERS FERRY CLOSED NORTH IDAHO
COLLEGE CENTER.

0905 AM HEAVY RAIN SANDPOINT 48.29N 116.56W
03/06/2014 M1.42 INCH BONNER ID CO-OP OBSERVER

1015 AM FLOOD 7 NNW BONNERS FERRY 48.79N 116.37W
03/06/2014 BOUNDARY ID EMERGENCY MNGR

1 HOME REPORTING FLOODING FROM FLEMING CREEK.


&&

$$

JWOLF

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KEKA [061821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 061821
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1021 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM HAIL GASQUET 41.85N 123.97W
03/06/2014 E0.25 INCH DEL NORTE CA PUBLIC

SMALL HAIL FOR ONLY A MINUTE OR SO. RICE SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

KIDWELL

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KCYS [061820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061820
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE BUFORD 41.10N 105.28W
03/06/2014 M60 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KTBW [061801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 061801
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
101 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 E CLEARWATER 27.96N 82.69W
03/06/2014 E50 MPH PINELLAS FL BROADCAST MEDIA

LOCAL MEDIA ESTIMATED WIND GUST 40-50 MPH ON WEST SIDE OF
COURTNEY CAMPBELL CAUSEWAY.


&&

$$

RWYNN

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KTBW [061800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 061800
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 PM TORNADO 3 WNW TAMPA INTERNATION 28.00N 82.58W
03/06/2014 HILLSBOROUGH FL BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WITH FLYING DEBRIS NEAR
HANA AVE. AND HANLEY RD.


&&

$$

RWYNN

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KBOI [061758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 061758
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1058 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM FLOOD 5 S MCCALL 44.84N 116.11W
03/06/2014 VALLEY ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

NORWOOD RD CLOSED AT MAKI RD DUE TO WATER OVERFLOWING A
DRAINAGE DITCH.


&&

$$

SP

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KTBW [061756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 061756
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW CLEARWATER 27.92N 82.79W
03/06/2014 PINELLAS FL PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN. FENCE AND SHED DAMAGED.
LOCATION ESTIMATED BETWEEN LARGO AND BELLEAIR.


&&

$$

RWYNN

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KCYS [061752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061752
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1052 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCYS [061723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061723
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1023 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
03/06/2014 M52 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KTFX [061712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061712
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW THREE FORKS 45.88N 111.57W
03/06/2014 M55 MPH GALLATIN MT MESONET

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE THREE FORKS AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KOUN [061710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOUN 061710
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 5 N JONES 35.64N 97.29W
03/05/2014 E1.1 INCH OKLAHOMA OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW 3 WNW ENID 36.42N 97.93W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH GARFIELD OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW NNE OKARCHE 35.73N 97.98W
03/05/2014 M0.5 INCH KINGFISHER OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW 3 ESE AMES 36.23N 98.14W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH MAJOR OK COCORAHS

0830 PM SNOW 1 WNW PIEDMONT 35.65N 97.76W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH CANADIAN OK COCORAHS

0900 PM SNOW 5 NNE EDMOND 35.72N 97.45W
03/05/2014 M0.4 INCH OKLAHOMA OK COCORAHS


&&

$$

JPIKE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061709
SWODY2
SPC AC 061708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH...LIKELY TO BE CENTERED OVER GA/NORTH FL EARLY FRIDAY...WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/OFFSHORE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL
UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT SPREADS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG/JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. AS IMPLIED PER GUIDANCE SUCH
AS THE 12Z WRF-NSSL...A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-SURFACE BASED
ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR DEVELOP
INLAND INTO AREAS SUCH AS THE NC OUTER BANKS. ASIDE FROM BEING
SPATIALLY CONFINED...SUCH POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY
TOO LOW/UNCERTAIN TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THE POTENTIAL
WILL OTHERWISE EXIST FOR ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS FOR INLAND AREAS OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN/PERHAPS NEARBY PIEDMONT.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DPVA/WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN
NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

..GUYER.. 03/06/2014

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KCYS [061701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061701
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1001 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M64.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0920 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M63.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0921 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE BUFORD 41.10N 105.28W
03/06/2014 M62.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCYS [061659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061659
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
958 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
03/06/2014 M66 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

QUEALY DOME.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KOUN [061658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOUN 061658
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM SNOW 5 N JONES 35.64N 97.29W
03/05/2014 E1.1 INCH OKLAHOMA OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW 3 WNW ENID 36.42N 97.93W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH GARFIELD OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW NNE OKARCHE 35.73N 97.98W
03/05/2014 M0.5 INCH KINGFISHER OK COCORAHS

0830 PM SNOW 1 WNW PIEDMONT 35.65N 97.76W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH CANADIAN OK COCORAHS

0900 PM SNOW 5 NNE EDMOND 35.72N 97.45W
03/05/2014 M0.4 INCH OKLAHOMA OK COCORAHS


&&

$$

JPIKE

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KCYS [061654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061654
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
953 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0936 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/06/2014 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.

0935 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M56 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.

0935 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
03/06/2014 M50 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [061651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061651
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
951 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 NE CENTENNIAL 41.44N 105.92W
03/06/2014 M61 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KTFX [061645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061645
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
945 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FREEZING RAIN 9 S ULM 47.31N 111.51W
03/06/2014 E0.05 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PRECIPITATION 0.02 INCHES... ALL FROZE ON CONTACT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE 21.


&&

$$

LOSS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 27

WWUS20 KWNS 061631
SEL7
SPC WW 061631
FLZ000-CWZ000-070000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING OF DEEP
LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR /30-50 KT/...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WITH AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED LINE...WHICH COULD BE PRECEDED BY ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...KERR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061628
SWODY1
SPC AC 061627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
OVER THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB OF 60-90 M
WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO /WEST OF TAMPA/ WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PENINSULA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA TODAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NNEWD TO
OFF THE SC COAST BY 07/12Z. ANY NOTABLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE ERN PENINSULA...AWAY FROM MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NRN
AND W-CNTRL PENINSULA.

...FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN EXTENSIVE...PRE-FRONTAL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 16Z FROM THE W-CNTRL
PENINSULA SWWD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR
AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INFLOW WARM SECTOR TO THESE
STORMS SAMPLED AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SWD EXTENT
WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG/ WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SRN PENINSULA...PERHAPS NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING MAY OCCUR.

THE OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH IN
TURN WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE
LOW. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WILL EXIST WITHIN THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE
PREFERRED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN RADAR DATA.
HOWEVER...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 171 AND WW 27.

...NC OUTER BANKS LATE...

THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TSTMS INVOF
OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAY APPROACH SRN PARTS OF THE OUTER BANKS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...QUESTIONS EXIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL BE TRULY SURFACE BASED. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/06/2014

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KCYS [061623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061623
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
923 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M68.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE BUFORD 41.10N 105.28W
03/06/2014 M62.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KTFX [061618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061618
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
917 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
03/06/2014 M58 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS HILL.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCYS [061614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061614
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
913 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0901 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/06/2014 M54 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.

0902 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
03/06/2014 M51 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KPQR [061611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 061611
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
811 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1147 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ASTORIA 46.19N 123.82W
03/05/2014 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.84W
03/06/2014 M59.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR COUNTY OFFICIAL

0249 AM NON-TSTM WND GST YACHATS 44.31N 124.10W
03/06/2014 M58.00 MPH LINCOLN OR COUNTY OFFICIAL

0315 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
03/06/2014 M59.00 MPH CLATSOP OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0421 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.96W
03/06/2014 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0658 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
03/06/2014 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

YAQUINA BRIDGE

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY 44.97N 124.01W
03/06/2014 M71.00 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

TW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0171

ACUS11 KWNS 061548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061548
FLZ000-061715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061548Z - 061715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE
17-18Z TIME FRAME...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF IT...ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS AS LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA.

DISCUSSION...IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL FORECAST OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY 20-21Z. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH COINCIDES WITH A BELT OF 30-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG SHEAR...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL BLOWING OFF/ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. BUT THE CORE OF STRONGER
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS IS FORECAST TO NOSE INLAND
ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE MIAMI
METRO...AND THE KEYS...DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MORE MODEST
...BUT SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CONVECTIVE
LINE IS MORE CERTAIN.

EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA MID DAY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...ALONG ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
STILL APPEARS WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/MEAD.. 03/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 27608233 28708123 28978074 27987969 25897946 24488042
24718143 26188209 26758226 27608233

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KCYS [061547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061547
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
847 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/06/2014 M51 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [061532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061532
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
832 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M61 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 45 MPH.

0810 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 23 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.23W
03/06/2014 M51 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH.

0822 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
03/06/2014 M51 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED AT 41 MPH.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [061525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061525
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
825 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M67.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M61.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KCYS [061441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061441
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
741 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M63.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0711 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/06/2014 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0715 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
03/06/2014 M60.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KICT [061439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 061439
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
838 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM DENSE FOG MARION 38.35N 97.02W
03/06/2014 MARION KS EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED ONE EIGHTH TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE VISIBILITY.

0831 AM DENSE FOG GREAT BEND 38.36N 98.81W
03/06/2014 BARTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS A QUARTER MILE OF VISIBILITY.


&&

$$

VJP

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KREV [061436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 061436
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
636 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N CARSON CITY 39.19N 119.76W
03/06/2014 CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED SOME COTTONWOOD TREE
DAMAGE AND ALSO THAT A 10X20 FOOT METAL SHED CAME APART
AND CAUSED SOME VEHICLE DAMAGE.


&&

$$

MCGUIRE

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KOUN [061356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 061356
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 3 WNW ENID 36.42N 97.93W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH GARFIELD OK COCORAHS

0700 PM SNOW NNE OKARCHE 35.73N 97.98W
03/05/2014 M0.5 INCH KINGFISHER OK COCORAHS


&&

$$

JPIKE

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KDMX [061354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 061354
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
753 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW RATHBUN LAKE 40.85N 92.96W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH APPANOOSE IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 PM SNOW BEACONSFIELD 40.81N 94.05W
03/05/2014 M1.5 INCH RINGGOLD IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 PM SNOW OSKALOOSA 41.29N 92.64W
03/05/2014 M1.5 INCH MAHASKA IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 PM SNOW BLOOMFIELD 40.75N 92.42W
03/05/2014 M1.7 INCH DAVIS IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 PM SNOW ALLERTON 40.71N 93.37W
03/05/2014 M1.8 INCH WAYNE IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 PM SNOW CENTERVILLE 40.73N 92.87W
03/05/2014 M1.0 INCH APPANOOSE IA CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 PM SNOW LAMONI 40.62N 93.94W
03/05/2014 M1.3 INCH DECATUR IA CO-OP OBSERVER


&&
ENDING TIMES ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBS.
$$

SKOW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061242
SWODY1
SPC AC 061241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI. SRN
STREAM LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO SRN MS BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E INTO CNTRL GA EARLY FRI. THE LOW IS
PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SVR...WILL CROSS
CNTRL AND SRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT AS BOTH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCES AND THE MAIN TROUGH IMPACT THE FL PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...UPSTREAM SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W CST
WILL REACH NRN CA/SRN ORE THIS AFTN AND THE NRN GRT BASIN EARLY
FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...FL TODAY/TNGT...
LATEST SFC DATA PLACE SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO ARKLATEX UPR SYSTEM OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA A LITTLE N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND TO THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/CONSOLIDATION OF ARKLATEX UPR TROUGH.

LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LEAD UPR IMPULSES...AND
UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE SUPPORTED
A ROBUST SW-NE ORIENTED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH MIDDAY. EMBEDDED
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS AND BOWS MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND TO THE W CST OF FL NEAR TAMPA
BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THAT TIME OR A BIT
LATER FARTHER S AND E OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES REDISTRIBUTE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER THE REGION.

AMPLE /40 TO 60 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
FARTHER N...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR/ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE PENINSULA...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW ALSO WILL
EXIST. BUT THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS AND ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO A FEW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...AND
DIMINISH AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFORMS NEWD OFF THE GA CST LATER TNGT/EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/06/2014

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KCYS [061230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061230
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
530 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
03/06/2014 M60.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT COOPER COVE SENSOR. SUSTAINED 42 MPH.

0301 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNE CENTENNIAL 41.50N 106.00W
03/06/2014 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT STRAUSS HILL SENSOR.

0327 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VEDAUWOO 41.15N 105.40W
03/06/2014 M58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WWYDOT SENSOR AT VEDAUWOO. SUSTAINED 45 MPH.

0411 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 W BUFORD 41.11N 105.34W
03/06/2014 M58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT LONE TREE SENSOR. SUSTAINED 43 MPH.


&&

$$

SML

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KTFX [061224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061224
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
524 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
03/06/2014 M46 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 46 MPH OVER THE PAST HOUR. PEAK
WIND GUST 57 MPH. LOCATION IS THE DOT SENSOR ON NORRIS
HILL.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KBIS [061152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 061152
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0551 AM SNOW WILLOW CITY 48.60N 100.30W
03/06/2014 M1.0 INCH BOTTINEAU ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR CO-OP SNOWFALL REPORT


&&

$$

AC

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KCYS [060944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 060944
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
243 AM MST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
03/06/2014 M59 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYODT BORDEAUX INTERCHANGE SENSOR. SUSTAINED WIND 42 MPH.



&&

$$

SML

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KREV [060941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 060941
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1238 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COLD SPRINGS VALLEY 39.67N 119.96W
03/06/2014 M57.00 MPH WASHOE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

57 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED.

0120 AM LIGHTNING NW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.94N 119.99W
03/06/2014 EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED LIGHTNING IN THE SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AREA.

0140 AM LIGHTNING 5 NNW MARKLEEVILLE 38.77N 119.82W
03/06/2014 ALPINE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE
LAST 30 MINUTES. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED 0.15 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.


&&

$$

MCGUIRE

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KOTX [060938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 060938
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
137 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0111 AM FLOOD 10 NE SPRAGUE 47.40N 117.82W
03/06/2014 SPOKANE WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SR231 CLOSED MP 0-28 DUE TO WATER AND MUD OVER ROADWAY


&&

$$

JCLEV

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060932
SWOD48
SPC AC 060931

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY FOR D4/SUN THROUGH D8/THU.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND ENSUING
INLAND BUOYANCY WHILE A MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN UNITED
STATES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LARGE VARIABILITY
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF SUCH A FEATURE
AND ITS RELATED PROPENSITY TO SUPPORT ANY SVR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION EXIST. FURTHERMORE...MANY SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LITTLE...IF ANY...PHASING OF APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WITH
TROUGH-PRECEDING ASCENT...THUS MITIGATING THE OVERALL SVR
THUNDERSTORM RISK.

..COHEN.. 03/06/2014

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KOTX [060915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 060915
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
115 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0111 AM FLOOD 10 NW SPRAGUE 47.40N 118.13W
03/06/2014 LINCOLN WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SR 23 CLOSED FROM MP 44-66 FOR WATER AND MUD OVER ROADWAY



&&

$$

JCLEV

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KSGX [060828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 060828
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1228 AM PST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM HIGH SURF 1 SE HUNTINGTON BEACH 33.68N 118.00W
03/05/2014 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

7 FT SURF AT BOLSA CHICA VIA SURFLINE

0640 AM HIGH SURF IMPERIAL BEACH 32.57N 117.12W
03/05/2014 SAN DIEGO CA PUBLIC

7 FT SURF VIA SURFLINE

0640 AM HIGH SURF 2 S PACIFIC BEACH 32.77N 117.24W
03/05/2014 SAN DIEGO CA PUBLIC

7 FT SURF AT MISSION BEACH VIA SURFLINE

1000 AM HIGH SURF HUNTINGTON BEACH 33.69N 118.01W
03/05/2014 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LIFEGUARDS REPORTED SURF TO 8 FEET.

0150 PM HIGH SURF 3 NNE LA JOLLA 32.89N 117.25W
03/05/2014 SAN DIEGO CA PUBLIC

8 FT SURF AT BLACKS BEACH VIA SURFLINE


&&

$$

JTAEGER

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060749
SWODY3
SPC AC 060748

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A BAND OF QUASI-ZONAL...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EDGE SWD INTO
THE NRN STATES AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
PRECEDING MULTIPLE MIGRATORY IMPULSES. TO THE S OF ONE OF THESE
IMPULSES...A VORT MAX ORIGINALLY CENTERED OVER AZ AND NM WILL BE
SHEARED ENEWD. THE PRIMARY PERTURBATION ANCHORING THE WRN EXTENT OF
THE ENSUING ENE/WSW-ORIENTED TROUGH MAY ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SWD WHILE
ENHANCING A SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO ITS S.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SEWD TO THE E OF THE ROCKIES...MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A
REINFORCING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS. AS THIS FRONT UNDERCUTS
WEAKLY MODIFIED RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF S TX WITHIN A MODEST
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME PRECEDING THE SHEARING TROUGH --
ENHANCED BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM --
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES...THOUGH SCANT MOISTURE AND A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY IN THESE
AREAS PRECLUDE GENERAL THUNDER DELINEATION. ELSEWHERE...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

..COHEN.. 03/06/2014

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KDVN [060729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 060729
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
129 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM SNOW GALVA 41.17N 90.04W
03/06/2014 M2.0 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.


&&

$$

DLS

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KSEW [060722]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 060722
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1122 PM PST WED MAR 05 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 ENE VAIL 46.86N 122.58W
03/05/2014 M0.52 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.52 INCHES OF RAIN IN 19 MINUTES AND STILL POURING.
SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED SOME SMALL HAIL.


&&

$$

JSMITH

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KPDT [060707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 060707
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1107 PM PST WED MAR 05 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N MEACHAM 45.53N 118.42W
03/05/2014 M1.02 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 1.02 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 6 AM TODAY.


&&

$$

POLAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060600
SWODY1
SPC AC 060558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SERN MS/SRN AL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY 07/00Z...AND THEN THE
ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SERN STATES /GA
TO FAR N FL/ BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGEST OVER N FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY /500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS/...WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER FALLS OVER THE
SRN HALF OF FL /20-30 METERS/. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR
FROM GA INTO FL TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
SERN STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN GULF
AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
ALONG A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM 10 N PIE TO 40 N
MLB THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL FL BY
EARLY EVENING AND THEN ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF S FL BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WEST...A TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROCEED INLAND ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...FL PENINSULA...
A PAIR OF LEAD IMPULSES...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND LOCATED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
AND NOW MOVING INTO THE NWRN GULF PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
EACH PROVIDE ASCENT FOR TSTMS TO LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF AT 12Z TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
NWD TO ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA
TODAY. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLOUDINESS
ATTENDANT TO GULF OF MEXICO TSTMS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF FL THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THIS
FACTOR...MODELS SUGGEST S FL SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
GIVEN LESS CLOUDINESS DURING THE START OF THE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING CYCLE. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AT LEAST SOME
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS S FL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL...MORE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...IN VICINITY AND S OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS N FL MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT THE NWD RETURN OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...REACHING N CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL DESTABILIZATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL. THIS THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THREE
REGIMES 1/ INVOF A LOW LEVEL PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING S-N THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF S FL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...2/ INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND
3/ ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT
RISK BY 07/00Z AND ACROSS S FL THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER SOME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST...EVEN WITH THE VEERING...STRENGTHENING LOWER-MID LEVEL
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN SFC-1 KM SHEAR WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COAST. THUS...GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. DESPITE WEAK TO MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -12 C
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S FL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NRN GREAT BASIN...
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB ATTENDANT TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH
SHOULD TRACK SEWD ACROSS ID/NRN NV AND UT TODAY...REACHING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE COLDEST 500-MB TEMPERATURES /-22
TO -26 C/ ATTENDANT TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH.

..PETERS/MOSIER.. 03/06/2014

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