DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061628
SWODY1
SPC AC 061627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
OVER THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER AR/LA WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL
JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB OF 60-90 M
WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO /WEST OF TAMPA/ WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PENINSULA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA TODAY
BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NNEWD TO
OFF THE SC COAST BY 07/12Z. ANY NOTABLE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE ERN PENINSULA...AWAY FROM MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NRN
AND W-CNTRL PENINSULA.

...FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

AN EXTENSIVE...PRE-FRONTAL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 16Z FROM THE W-CNTRL
PENINSULA SWWD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR
AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE LOWER MS VALLEY UPPER LOW/SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INFLOW WARM SECTOR TO THESE
STORMS SAMPLED AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SWD EXTENT
WITH GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J PER KG/ WILL OCCUR
OVER THE SRN PENINSULA...PERHAPS NWD ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING MAY OCCUR.

THE OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH IN
TURN WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE WARM FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE
LOW. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WILL EXIST WITHIN THE MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN THE
PREFERRED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN RADAR DATA.
HOWEVER...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WHICH CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR
MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 171 AND WW 27.

...NC OUTER BANKS LATE...

THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THAT TSTMS INVOF
OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MAY APPROACH SRN PARTS OF THE OUTER BANKS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG...QUESTIONS EXIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER
STORMS WILL BE TRULY SURFACE BASED. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/06/2014

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