NWUS52 KTBW 220248
LSRTBW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0547 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 E NOKOMIS 27.12N 82.40W
09/21/2012 SARASOTA FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED ALONG INTERSTATE 75 NEAR
NOKOMIS.
&&
$$
JCM
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Friday, September 21, 2012
KILN [220236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220236
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1036 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 PM TSTM WND DMG HILLIARD 40.04N 83.14W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH PUBLIC
TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1036 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1010 PM TSTM WND DMG HILLIARD 40.04N 83.14W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH PUBLIC
TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KIND [220228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KIND 220228
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW WALLACE 40.00N 87.20W
09/21/2012 FOUNTAIN IN EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 900 S AND 270 E
AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF US 41 AND 800 S.
ADDITIONALLY...ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN ON 900 S JUST
EAST OF 270 E.
0638 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.89W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREENS DOWNED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWYS 231 AND 236.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0640 PM HAIL 3 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.86W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
NICKEL SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY 50 MPH
WINDS. REPORTED ON HWY 236 BETWEEN HWY 231 AND
ROACHDALE.
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BAINBRIDGE 39.79N 86.81W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED AT NORTH PUTNAM HIGH SCHOOL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0642 PM TSTM WND GST NEW ROSS 39.96N 86.71W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MONTGOMERY IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.
0644 PM HAIL ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.80W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW NORTH SALEM 39.90N 86.67W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
MULTIPLE 4-6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AT CR 900 N
AND CR 775 W. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW DANVILLE 39.82N 86.60W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
TWO FOOT HEALTHY TREE UPROOTED AT SR 236 AND CR 400 W.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0700 PM HAIL 1 WNW DANVILLE 39.77N 86.54W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 PM HAIL LEBANON 40.05N 86.47W
09/21/2012 E0.70 INCH BOONE IN AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED FROMT THE NORTH SIDE OF LEBANON.
0701 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0702 PM HAIL DANVILLE 39.76N 86.52W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH SOME LARGER STONES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF DANVILLE.
0703 PM HAIL 2 W BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.43W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0705 PM HAIL DANVILLE 39.76N 86.52W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN DANVILLE ENDING AT 705
PM. WINDS OF 30 MPH ESTIMATED ALSO.
0705 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 0.5 MILE EAST OF DOWNTOWN
PITTSBORO.
0706 PM HAIL NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0707 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0708 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROWNSBURG. MEASURED WIND GUST OF 52 MPH.
0710 PM HAIL 6 NE BROWNSBURG 39.90N 86.31W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
0711 PM HAIL 1 N AVON 39.78N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED 1 N OF AVON.
0711 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 M1.50 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0711 PM TSTM WND GST BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E60 MPH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0712 PM HAIL 2 W AVON 39.76N 86.42W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
0714 PM HAIL 3 W AVON 39.76N 86.44W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN PUBLIC
0715 PM HAIL 2 NNW AVON 39.79N 86.40W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0715 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W SPEEDWAY 39.79N 86.30W
09/21/2012 E60 MPH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANIED BY NICKEL SIZED
HAIL AT 21ST STREET AND RACEWAY RD.
0715 PM HAIL 2 NNE BROWNSBURG 39.87N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0716 PM HAIL AVON 39.76N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND APPROXIMATELY ONE
FOOT DEEP. ENDED AT 716 PM.
0717 PM HAIL 2 E AVON 39.76N 86.35W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
0718 PM HAIL 7 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.28W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN COCORAHS
0719 PM HAIL 2 E PLAINFIELD 39.70N 86.35W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0720 PM HAIL 2 S INDIANAPOLIS INT'L 39.69N 86.29W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH MARION IN NWS EMPLOYEE
HAIL APPROACHING PENNY SIZE AT NWS INDIANAPOLIS.
0720 PM TSTM WND DMG BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
SIDING AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF A HOME. PATIO
FURNITURE AND A GAZEBO DAMAGED AT NEIGHBORING HOMES.
NEAR STATE ROUTE 267 AND TILDON ROAD JUST SOUTH OF
BROWNSBURG.
0720 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 M0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0720 PM HAIL INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.15W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORTED AT THE RTV6 STUDIO.
0724 PM HAIL 3 SSE SPEEDWAY 39.75N 86.23W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT LYNHURST AND
ROCKVILLE RD.
0725 PM HAIL 5 S BROWNSBURG 39.77N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0726 PM HAIL 4 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.22W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0726 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.22W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER IS OUT.
0727 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
LIMBS DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SIDING.
0735 PM HAIL 2 SSE SPEEDWAY 39.77N 86.23W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 10TH ST AND LYNHURST DR.
ALSO...1.50 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE 600 PM.
0735 PM HAIL 5 ENE INDIANAPOLIS 39.80N 86.06W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 10TH ST AND ARLINGTON
AVE.
0736 PM HAIL 5 E INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.05W
09/21/2012 E1.50 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
0736 PM HAIL 8 ESE INDIANAPOLIS 39.73N 86.01W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED AT FRANKLIN RD AND RAYMOND ST.
0737 PM HAIL BEECH GROVE 39.72N 86.09W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN COCORAHS
0739 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N ANDERSON 40.18N 85.69W
09/21/2012 M56 MPH MADISON IN AMATEUR RADIO
MEASURED 56 MPH GUST AT MADISON COUNTY EOC LOCATED AT
CR 600 N AND SR 9.
0740 PM HAIL 1 W CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.97W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST WEST OF CUMBERLAND.
0744 PM HAIL 1 E CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.93W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HANCOCK IN TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF CUMBERLAND.
0746 PM HAIL NEW PALESTINE 39.72N 85.89W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HANCOCK IN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORT FROM FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE.
0751 PM HAIL 1 ESE CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.93W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HANCOCK IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 100 S AND 700 W.
0756 PM HAIL 5 E NEW PALESTINE 39.72N 85.80W
09/21/2012 E1.50 INCH HANCOCK IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0806 PM HAIL GREENFIELD 39.79N 85.77W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HANCOCK IN PUBLIC
QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF GREENFIELD.
REPORTED FROM WTHR FACEBOOK PAGE.
0820 PM HAIL 7 N RUSHVILLE 39.72N 85.45W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH RUSH IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND SMALLER COVERING THE GROUND.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0828 PM HAIL COATESVILLE 39.69N 86.67W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0829 PM HAIL 6 N RUSHVILLE 39.70N 85.45W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH RUSH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROADWAYS COVERED WITH HAIL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746 IND1200801 IND1200751 IND1200747 IND1200750
IND1200749 IND1200748 IND1200792 IND1200791 IND1200759 IND1200763
IND1200760 IND1200752 IND1200753 IND1200754 IND1200769 IND1200758
IND1200757 IND1200765 IND1200755 IND1200770 IND1200789 IND1200790
IND1200756 IND1200761 IND1200762 IND1200767 IND1200783 IND1200768
IND1200764 IND1200775 IND1200766 IND1200774 IND1200793 IND1200794
IND1200795 IND1200773 IND1200784 IND1200771 IND1200772 IND1200788
IND1200782 IND1200787 IND1200776 IND1200778 IND1200781 IND1200796
IND1200777 IND1200779 IND1200780 IND1200785 IND1200786 IND1200797
IND1200799 IND1200800 IND1200798
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW WALLACE 40.00N 87.20W
09/21/2012 FOUNTAIN IN EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 900 S AND 270 E
AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF US 41 AND 800 S.
ADDITIONALLY...ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN ON 900 S JUST
EAST OF 270 E.
0638 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.89W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREENS DOWNED AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWYS 231 AND 236.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0640 PM HAIL 3 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.86W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
NICKEL SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY 50 MPH
WINDS. REPORTED ON HWY 236 BETWEEN HWY 231 AND
ROACHDALE.
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BAINBRIDGE 39.79N 86.81W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED AT NORTH PUTNAM HIGH SCHOOL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0642 PM TSTM WND GST NEW ROSS 39.96N 86.71W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MONTGOMERY IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.
0644 PM HAIL ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.80W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW NORTH SALEM 39.90N 86.67W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
MULTIPLE 4-6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AT CR 900 N
AND CR 775 W. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0655 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW DANVILLE 39.82N 86.60W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
TWO FOOT HEALTHY TREE UPROOTED AT SR 236 AND CR 400 W.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0700 PM HAIL 1 WNW DANVILLE 39.77N 86.54W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0700 PM HAIL LEBANON 40.05N 86.47W
09/21/2012 E0.70 INCH BOONE IN AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED FROMT THE NORTH SIDE OF LEBANON.
0701 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0702 PM HAIL DANVILLE 39.76N 86.52W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH SOME LARGER STONES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF DANVILLE.
0703 PM HAIL 2 W BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.43W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0705 PM HAIL DANVILLE 39.76N 86.52W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN DANVILLE ENDING AT 705
PM. WINDS OF 30 MPH ESTIMATED ALSO.
0705 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 0.5 MILE EAST OF DOWNTOWN
PITTSBORO.
0706 PM HAIL NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0707 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0708 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
PENNY SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF BROWNSBURG. MEASURED WIND GUST OF 52 MPH.
0710 PM HAIL 6 NE BROWNSBURG 39.90N 86.31W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
0711 PM HAIL 1 N AVON 39.78N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED 1 N OF AVON.
0711 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 M1.50 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0711 PM TSTM WND GST BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E60 MPH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0712 PM HAIL 2 W AVON 39.76N 86.42W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
0714 PM HAIL 3 W AVON 39.76N 86.44W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN PUBLIC
0715 PM HAIL 2 NNW AVON 39.79N 86.40W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0715 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W SPEEDWAY 39.79N 86.30W
09/21/2012 E60 MPH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANIED BY NICKEL SIZED
HAIL AT 21ST STREET AND RACEWAY RD.
0715 PM HAIL 2 NNE BROWNSBURG 39.87N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0716 PM HAIL AVON 39.76N 86.38W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERED THE GROUND APPROXIMATELY ONE
FOOT DEEP. ENDED AT 716 PM.
0717 PM HAIL 2 E AVON 39.76N 86.35W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
0718 PM HAIL 7 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.28W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN COCORAHS
0719 PM HAIL 2 E PLAINFIELD 39.70N 86.35W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0720 PM HAIL 2 S INDIANAPOLIS INT'L 39.69N 86.29W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH MARION IN NWS EMPLOYEE
HAIL APPROACHING PENNY SIZE AT NWS INDIANAPOLIS.
0720 PM TSTM WND DMG BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
SIDING AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF A HOME. PATIO
FURNITURE AND A GAZEBO DAMAGED AT NEIGHBORING HOMES.
NEAR STATE ROUTE 267 AND TILDON ROAD JUST SOUTH OF
BROWNSBURG.
0720 PM HAIL BROWNSBURG 39.84N 86.39W
09/21/2012 M0.88 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0720 PM HAIL INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.15W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORTED AT THE RTV6 STUDIO.
0724 PM HAIL 3 SSE SPEEDWAY 39.75N 86.23W
09/21/2012 E1.25 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT LYNHURST AND
ROCKVILLE RD.
0725 PM HAIL 5 S BROWNSBURG 39.77N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HENDRICKS IN COCORAHS
0726 PM HAIL 4 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.22W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0726 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.22W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
POWER IS OUT.
0727 PM HAIL PITTSBORO 39.87N 86.46W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN TRAINED SPOTTER
LIMBS DOWN AND DAMAGE TO SIDING.
0735 PM HAIL 2 SSE SPEEDWAY 39.77N 86.23W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 10TH ST AND LYNHURST DR.
ALSO...1.50 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE 600 PM.
0735 PM HAIL 5 ENE INDIANAPOLIS 39.80N 86.06W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 10TH ST AND ARLINGTON
AVE.
0736 PM HAIL 5 E INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.05W
09/21/2012 E1.50 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
0736 PM HAIL 8 ESE INDIANAPOLIS 39.73N 86.01W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED AT FRANKLIN RD AND RAYMOND ST.
0737 PM HAIL BEECH GROVE 39.72N 86.09W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MARION IN COCORAHS
0739 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N ANDERSON 40.18N 85.69W
09/21/2012 M56 MPH MADISON IN AMATEUR RADIO
MEASURED 56 MPH GUST AT MADISON COUNTY EOC LOCATED AT
CR 600 N AND SR 9.
0740 PM HAIL 1 W CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.97W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER
QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST WEST OF CUMBERLAND.
0744 PM HAIL 1 E CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.93W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH HANCOCK IN TRAINED SPOTTER
GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF CUMBERLAND.
0746 PM HAIL NEW PALESTINE 39.72N 85.89W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH HANCOCK IN NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORT FROM FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE.
0751 PM HAIL 1 ESE CUMBERLAND 39.78N 85.93W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HANCOCK IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT 100 S AND 700 W.
0756 PM HAIL 5 E NEW PALESTINE 39.72N 85.80W
09/21/2012 E1.50 INCH HANCOCK IN TRAINED SPOTTER
0806 PM HAIL GREENFIELD 39.79N 85.77W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH HANCOCK IN PUBLIC
QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF GREENFIELD.
REPORTED FROM WTHR FACEBOOK PAGE.
0820 PM HAIL 7 N RUSHVILLE 39.72N 85.45W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH RUSH IN AMATEUR RADIO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND SMALLER COVERING THE GROUND.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0828 PM HAIL COATESVILLE 39.69N 86.67W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH HENDRICKS IN AMATEUR RADIO
0829 PM HAIL 6 N RUSHVILLE 39.70N 85.45W
09/21/2012 E1.75 INCH RUSH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROADWAYS COVERED WITH HAIL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746 IND1200801 IND1200751 IND1200747 IND1200750
IND1200749 IND1200748 IND1200792 IND1200791 IND1200759 IND1200763
IND1200760 IND1200752 IND1200753 IND1200754 IND1200769 IND1200758
IND1200757 IND1200765 IND1200755 IND1200770 IND1200789 IND1200790
IND1200756 IND1200761 IND1200762 IND1200767 IND1200783 IND1200768
IND1200764 IND1200775 IND1200766 IND1200774 IND1200793 IND1200794
IND1200795 IND1200773 IND1200784 IND1200771 IND1200772 IND1200788
IND1200782 IND1200787 IND1200776 IND1200778 IND1200781 IND1200796
IND1200777 IND1200779 IND1200780 IND1200785 IND1200786 IND1200797
IND1200799 IND1200800 IND1200798
$$
HOMANN
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KILN [220225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220225
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1017 PM TSTM WND DMG WORTHINGTON 40.10N 83.02W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND A TREE SPLIT IN HALF
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1017 PM TSTM WND DMG WORTHINGTON 40.10N 83.02W
09/21/2012 FRANKLIN OH TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND A TREE SPLIT IN HALF
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KILN [220224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220224
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 PM HAIL WEST CARROLLTON 39.67N 84.25W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH MONTGOMERY OH TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 PM HAIL WEST CARROLLTON 39.67N 84.25W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH MONTGOMERY OH TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KILN [220214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220214
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM HAIL 6 SSE DOWNTOWN DAYTON 39.68N 84.17W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY OH AMATEUR RADIO
ON FAR HILLS AVE NEAR WASHINGTON TWP LINE
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM HAIL 6 SSE DOWNTOWN DAYTON 39.68N 84.17W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY OH AMATEUR RADIO
ON FAR HILLS AVE NEAR WASHINGTON TWP LINE
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KILN [220208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KILN 220208
LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM TSTM WND GST PLAIN CITY 40.11N 83.27W
09/21/2012 M55 MPH UNION OH AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
SNYDER
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LSRILN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM TSTM WND GST PLAIN CITY 40.11N 83.27W
09/21/2012 M55 MPH UNION OH AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
SNYDER
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KIND [220206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 220206
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW WALLACE 40.00N 87.20W
09/21/2012 FOUNTAIN IN EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 900 S AND 270 E
AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF US 41 AND 800 S.
ADDITIONALLY...ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN ON 900 S JUST
EAST OF 270 E.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200801
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW WALLACE 40.00N 87.20W
09/21/2012 FOUNTAIN IN EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 900 S AND 270 E
AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF US 41 AND 800 S.
ADDITIONALLY...ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN ON 900 S JUST
EAST OF 270 E.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200801
$$
HOMANN
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KILX [220151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KILX 220151
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
0754 PM HAIL MARTINSVILLE 39.34N 87.88W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH CLARK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JRP
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
0754 PM HAIL MARTINSVILLE 39.34N 87.88W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH CLARK IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JRP
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KIND [212251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 212251
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BAINBRIDGE 39.79N 86.81W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED AT NORTH PUTNAM HIGH SCHOOL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200750
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BAINBRIDGE 39.79N 86.81W
09/21/2012 PUTNAM IN LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED AT NORTH PUTNAM HIGH SCHOOL. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200750
$$
HOMANN
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KIND [212250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 212250
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
649 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0642 PM TSTM WND GST NEW ROSS 39.96N 86.71W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MONTGOMERY IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200749
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
649 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0642 PM TSTM WND GST NEW ROSS 39.96N 86.71W
09/21/2012 E65 MPH MONTGOMERY IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO 65 MPH ALONG WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200749
$$
HOMANN
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KIND [212248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 212248
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 PM HAIL ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.80W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200748
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0644 PM HAIL ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.80W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200748
$$
HOMANN
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KIND [212246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 212246
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM HAIL 3 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.86W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
NICKEL SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY 50 MPH
WINDS. REPORTED ON HWY 236 BETWEEN HWY 231 AND
ROACHDALE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200747
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM HAIL 3 W ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.86W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PUTNAM IN EMERGENCY MNGR
NICKEL SIZED HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY 50 MPH
WINDS. REPORTED ON HWY 236 BETWEEN HWY 231 AND
ROACHDALE.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200747
$$
HOMANN
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KDLH [212226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 212226
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0522 PM HAIL BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0522 PM HEAVY RAIN BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN 20 MINUTES
0522 PM TSTM WND GST BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M36.00 MPH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
RS
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0522 PM HAIL BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0522 PM HEAVY RAIN BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
FELL IN 20 MINUTES
0522 PM TSTM WND GST BIGFORK 47.75N 93.65W
09/21/2012 M36.00 MPH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
RS
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KIND [212216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS53 KIND 212216
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746
$$
HOMANN
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KIND [212212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIND 212212
LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
612 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0611 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746
$$
HOMANN
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LSRIND
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
612 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0611 PM HAIL 1 N PLAINFIELD 39.71N 86.39W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH HENDRICKS IN NWS EMPLOYEE
PEA SIZE HAIL ENDED AT 609 PM.
&&
EVENT NUMBER IND1200746
$$
HOMANN
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1979
ACUS11 KWNS 212200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212159
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-212330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212159Z - 212330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SVR LEVELS...AND POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
DISCUSSION...AT 21Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR W-CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-SEWD
INTO SRN IND. LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. S OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED S-SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO
SRN MO. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST E OF STL AS OF 2148Z. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A NARROW AXIS OF
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38458771 37778824 37698916 37938996 38639039 39289012
39448935 39368824 39088765 38458771
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212159
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-212330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1979
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212159Z - 212330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL IL DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SVR LEVELS...AND POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
DISCUSSION...AT 21Z...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER FAR W-CNTRL IL...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E-SEWD
INTO SRN IND. LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME HAS SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL IND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. S OF THE WARM FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED S-SWWD FROM THE LOW INTO
SRN MO. CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST E OF STL AS OF 2148Z. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A NARROW AXIS OF
MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SVR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38458771 37778824 37698916 37938996 38639039 39289012
39448935 39368824 39088765 38458771
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KDLH [212125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 212125
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM HAIL HERMANTOWN 46.81N 92.24W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DPACKING
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0424 PM HAIL HERMANTOWN 46.81N 92.24W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DPACKING
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KILX [212116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 212116
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
416 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
416 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0408 PM HAIL 1 ENE PHILO 40.01N 88.14W
09/21/2012 M0.75 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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KILX [212104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 212104
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
404 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
404 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL E SAN JOSE 40.31N 89.60W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SAN JOSE FIRE
CHIEF...HAIL COVERING THE GROUND LIKE SNOW...FROM 0.5 TO
1 INCH DIAMETER.
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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KDLH [212104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 212104
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0343 PM HAIL FIFIELD 45.88N 90.42W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BTENTING
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0343 PM HAIL FIFIELD 45.88N 90.42W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH PRICE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
BTENTING
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KILX [212010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KILX 212010
LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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LSRILX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
310 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0301 PM HAIL EMDEN 40.30N 89.49W
09/21/2012 M1.00 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR
LOGAN COUNTY EMA REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE
155 NEAR EMDEN.
&&
$$
GOETSCH
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211958
SWODY1
SPC AC 211956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IND...
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
TRENDS IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AGREE WITH THE 12Z WRF 4
KM NMM AND 4 KM NSSL SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR S OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH EXTENDED ESEWD FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL IL PER LIGHTNING DATA/REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY LOCATED E OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED OVER NERN MO/FAR
WEST CENTRAL IL AT 18Z...AND ALONG A ZONE OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
AND THE NWD RETURN OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SCENARIO PER THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS IN THE HRRR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM INTO MORE OF SWRN-CENTRAL IND...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND SLIGHT RISK AREA HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A FEW COUNTIES
TO THE SE AND E.
...CENTRAL NY TO CENTRAL PA...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED...THOUGH GENERALLY ISOLATED...TSTMS ACROSS
1/ PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TO ADJACENT SRN NY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND 2/ INVOF KROC EXTENDING
NNEWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT.
AS INDICATED BY THE EARLIER FORECAST...THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE WEAK...AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO NOT
BE WARRANTED.
..PETERS.. 09/21/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE REGIME...MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER WRN IA WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL IL
BY 22/00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY REFORMING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO AT 22/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY LOW WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
MID SOUTH.
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH/
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY
ALONG A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALIGN WITH
500-MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AND DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITHIN SURFACE WARM
SECTOR.
AN ENHANCED ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE TO FOSTER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/ERN IL.
THE COLLOCATION OF 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A 30-40 KT LLJ
WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
...CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
DCVA AHEAD OF A SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS A WEAK UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORM VIGOR AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IND...
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
TRENDS IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AGREE WITH THE 12Z WRF 4
KM NMM AND 4 KM NSSL SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR S OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH EXTENDED ESEWD FROM
WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL IL PER LIGHTNING DATA/REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY LOCATED E OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED OVER NERN MO/FAR
WEST CENTRAL IL AT 18Z...AND ALONG A ZONE OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS
AND THE NWD RETURN OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
OBSERVATIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SCENARIO PER THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS IN THE HRRR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM INTO MORE OF SWRN-CENTRAL IND...SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND SLIGHT RISK AREA HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A FEW COUNTIES
TO THE SE AND E.
...CENTRAL NY TO CENTRAL PA...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED...THOUGH GENERALLY ISOLATED...TSTMS ACROSS
1/ PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TO ADJACENT SRN NY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND 2/ INVOF KROC EXTENDING
NNEWD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT.
AS INDICATED BY THE EARLIER FORECAST...THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE WEAK...AND THUS SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO NOT
BE WARRANTED.
..PETERS.. 09/21/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE REGIME...MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER WRN IA WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL IL
BY 22/00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY REFORMING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO AT 22/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY LOW WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
MID SOUTH.
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH/
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY
ALONG A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALIGN WITH
500-MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AND DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITHIN SURFACE WARM
SECTOR.
AN ENHANCED ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE TO FOSTER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/ERN IL.
THE COLLOCATION OF 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A 30-40 KT LLJ
WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
...CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
DCVA AHEAD OF A SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS A WEAK UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORM VIGOR AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
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KDVN [211911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDVN 211911
LSRDVN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM HAIL 3 SSW ROCK ISLAND 41.44N 90.59W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ROCK ISLAND IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
TEO
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LSRDVN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
211 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM HAIL 3 SSW ROCK ISLAND 41.44N 90.59W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH ROCK ISLAND IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
TEO
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KMPX [211907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMPX 211907
LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
206 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM HAIL WYOMING 45.33N 93.00W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH CHISAGO MN TRAINED SPOTTER
EXACT LOCATION FAIRVIEW LAKES MEDICAL FACILITY, 1 MIN
DURATION
&&
$$
DFC
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LSRMPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
206 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM HAIL WYOMING 45.33N 93.00W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH CHISAGO MN TRAINED SPOTTER
EXACT LOCATION FAIRVIEW LAKES MEDICAL FACILITY, 1 MIN
DURATION
&&
$$
DFC
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KAPX [211845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211845
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL 1 NE ALDEN 44.91N 85.29W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM HAIL 1 NE ALDEN 44.91N 85.29W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI PUBLIC
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1978
ACUS11 KWNS 211837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211836
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-212000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211836Z - 212000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING
IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON
THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS
CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL
CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL
IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT
LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40548702 41378876 41728987 41669052 41169094 40539089
39348998 38558854 38778681 40548702
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211836
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-212000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1978
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...WCNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211836Z - 212000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CNTRL IL INTO WRN IND THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THE MAIN THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING AND INCREASING
IN INTENSITY JUST TO THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SFC LOW CENTERED OVER
NE MO. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE NERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND ON
THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS
CREATING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS IN SPITE OF THE
WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE WSR-88D VWP AT SPRINGFIELD IL
CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
WITH HEIGHT FROM 2 TO 3 KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD INTO THE MCD AREA AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES. 500 MB TEMPS OF -15 C TO -19C WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS ECNTRL
IL INTO WRN IND AS SHOWN ON MESOSANALYSIS WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES
NOW AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AT
LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS MATURE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN ROTATE AND PERSIST.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 40548702 41378876 41728987 41669052 41169094 40539089
39348998 38558854 38778681 40548702
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KDVN [211827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDVN 211827
LSRDVN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
127 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0127 PM HAIL MACOMB 40.47N 90.68W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED FOR ABOUT 1 MINUTE.
&&
$$
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LSRDVN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
127 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0127 PM HAIL MACOMB 40.47N 90.68W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED FOR ABOUT 1 MINUTE.
&&
$$
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KAPX [211825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211825
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
225 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0220 PM HAIL 4 NW WOLVERINE 45.31N 84.66W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
225 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0220 PM HAIL 4 NW WOLVERINE 45.31N 84.66W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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KAPX [211822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211822
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
222 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM HAIL EAST JORDAN 45.16N 85.13W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER
0210 PM HAIL TRAVERSE CITY 44.75N 85.60W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
REPORTED AT TRAVERSE CITY STATE PARK
&&
$$
BERGER
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
222 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM HAIL EAST JORDAN 45.16N 85.13W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER
0210 PM HAIL TRAVERSE CITY 44.75N 85.60W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI SPOTTER
REPORTED AT TRAVERSE CITY STATE PARK
&&
$$
BERGER
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KGRB [211821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 211821
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
121 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM HAIL CLINTONVILLE 44.61N 88.75W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ASHLEYW
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LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
121 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM HAIL CLINTONVILLE 44.61N 88.75W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ASHLEYW
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KDLH [211750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 211750
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1248 PM HAIL INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH KOOCHICHING MN TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL RANGED FROM PEA TO DIME SIZE.
&&
$$
BTENTING
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1248 PM HAIL INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH KOOCHICHING MN TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL RANGED FROM PEA TO DIME SIZE.
&&
$$
BTENTING
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KLSX [211744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 211744
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1238 PM HAIL GREENFIELD 39.34N 90.21W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH GREENE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1238 PM HAIL GREENFIELD 39.34N 90.21W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH GREENE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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KAPX [211730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211730
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM HAIL 3 SW PELLSTON 45.53N 84.83W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH EMMET MI BROADCAST MEDIA
0126 PM HAIL EAST JORDAN 45.16N 85.13W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER
0126 PM HAIL 3 S PELLSTON 45.52N 84.78W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH EMMET MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
BERGER
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM HAIL 3 SW PELLSTON 45.53N 84.83W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH EMMET MI BROADCAST MEDIA
0126 PM HAIL EAST JORDAN 45.16N 85.13W
09/21/2012 M0.25 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER
0126 PM HAIL 3 S PELLSTON 45.52N 84.78W
09/21/2012 E0.75 INCH EMMET MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
BERGER
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 211729
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ON SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA PER MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/
OH VALLEY REGION...REACHING NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND THE PARENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN ONTARIO SSWWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN AND THE MID SOUTH AT 12Z SAT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CREST THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT
AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A
SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
REGION SUPPORTING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/ISOLATED
TSTMS.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE FORECAST OF WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST
AT BEST WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM NERN MD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO SERN NY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD SHIFT OF THE ERN U.S. LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO CENTRAL NY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED AS
THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE TROUGH AND ADVANCES INTO ERN NY...ERN
PA TO THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS LATE SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
FARTHER S...GREATER VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO VA SUGGESTS
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER...AND THUS LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
ROBUST/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON...SEVERE PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED INTO VA. MEANWHILE...FAR N ACROSS UPSTATE
NY...WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH NWD EXTENT...AND THUS THE SLIGHT RISK
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THAT REGION TOO.
..PETERS.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 211727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD ON SAT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH SRN
MANITOBA PER MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDWEST/
OH VALLEY REGION...REACHING NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND THE PARENT LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN ONTARIO SSWWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN AND THE MID SOUTH AT 12Z SAT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CREST THROUGH MIDDAY...AND
THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT
AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A
SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
REGION SUPPORTING SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/ISOLATED
TSTMS.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THE FORECAST OF WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUES TO SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST
AT BEST WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM NERN MD THROUGH ERN PA/NJ TO SERN NY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN WITH THE EWD SHIFT OF THE ERN U.S. LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND THE APPROACH OF THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO CENTRAL NY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY BEING MAINTAINED AS
THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE TROUGH AND ADVANCES INTO ERN NY...ERN
PA TO THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS LATE SAT AFTERNOON/
EVENING. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
FARTHER S...GREATER VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO VA SUGGESTS
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER...AND THUS LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
ROBUST/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON...SEVERE PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED INTO VA. MEANWHILE...FAR N ACROSS UPSTATE
NY...WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH NWD EXTENT...AND THUS THE SLIGHT RISK
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THAT REGION TOO.
..PETERS.. 09/21/2012
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KAPX [211654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211654
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1254 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HAIL SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.65W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH LEELANAU MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
BERGER
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1254 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HAIL SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.65W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH LEELANAU MI SPOTTER
&&
$$
BERGER
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KLSX [211645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 211645
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM HAIL LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PIKE MO PUBLIC
HAIL UP TO SIZE OF NICKELS.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM HAIL LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH PIKE MO PUBLIC
HAIL UP TO SIZE OF NICKELS.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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KLSX [211623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLSX 211623
LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1116 AM HAIL LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH PIKE MO BROADCAST MEDIA
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN OF
LOUISIANA.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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LSRLSX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1123 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1116 AM HAIL LOUISIANA 39.44N 91.06W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH PIKE MO BROADCAST MEDIA
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE TOWN OF
LOUISIANA.
&&
$$
GOSSELIN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211614
SWODY1
SPC AC 211612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IND...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE REGIME...MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER WRN IA WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL IL
BY 22/00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY REFORMING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO AT 22/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY LOW WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
MID SOUTH.
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH/
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY
ALONG A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALIGN WITH
500-MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AND DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITHIN SURFACE WARM
SECTOR.
AN ENHANCED ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE TO FOSTER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/ERN IL.
THE COLLOCATION OF 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A 30-40 KT LLJ
WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
...CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
DCVA AHEAD OF A SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS A WEAK UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORM VIGOR AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF IL AND IND...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED E OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROAD-SCALE REGIME...MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE
CYCLONE OVER WRN IA WILL DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL IL
BY 22/00Z...BEFORE WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY REFORMING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO AT 22/12Z. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED
ALONG THE OH RIVER WILL ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY LOW WHILE
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
MID SOUTH.
...IL/IND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE A
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH/
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU WHICH WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION TODAY
ALONG A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALIGN WITH
500-MB TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18C AND DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITHIN SURFACE WARM
SECTOR.
AN ENHANCED ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE TO FOSTER WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL/ERN IL.
THE COLLOCATION OF 50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A 30-40 KT LLJ
WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.
...CNTRL NY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
DCVA AHEAD OF A SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING FOR ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS A WEAK UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT STORM VIGOR AND RESULTANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/21/2012
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KSGF [211612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS53 KSGF 211612
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 AM HAIL 3 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.23N 93.25W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO 911 CALL CENTER
0151 AM HAIL 3 WNW SPRINGFIELD 37.21N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
0157 AM HAIL 5 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.25N 93.22W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT I-44/U.S. 65 INTERSECTION
IN NORTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD.
0224 AM HAIL 3 E SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.23W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR SUNSHINE AND LONE PINE
0300 AM HAIL 3 W SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHESTNUT EXPRESSWAY AND
I-44.
0630 AM FLOOD 5 NNE BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.33W
09/21/2012 GREENE MO OTHER FEDERAL
THE USGS GAGE AT WILSON CREEK GAGE BRIEFLY WENT OVER 7
FEET. WATER WAS OVER ROADWAY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR.
&&
$$
LINDENBERG
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 AM HAIL 3 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.23N 93.25W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO 911 CALL CENTER
0151 AM HAIL 3 WNW SPRINGFIELD 37.21N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
0157 AM HAIL 5 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.25N 93.22W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT I-44/U.S. 65 INTERSECTION
IN NORTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD.
0224 AM HAIL 3 E SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.23W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR SUNSHINE AND LONE PINE
0300 AM HAIL 3 W SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHESTNUT EXPRESSWAY AND
I-44.
0630 AM FLOOD 5 NNE BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.33W
09/21/2012 GREENE MO OTHER FEDERAL
THE USGS GAGE AT WILSON CREEK GAGE BRIEFLY WENT OVER 7
FEET. WATER WAS OVER ROADWAY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR.
&&
$$
LINDENBERG
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KAPX [211608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211608
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1208 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1157 AM WATER SPOUT W LELAND 45.02N 85.77W
09/21/2012 LEELANAU MI SPOTTER
WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY SPOTTER LASTING APPROXIMATELY 5
MINUTES.
&&
$$
BERGER
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1208 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1157 AM WATER SPOUT W LELAND 45.02N 85.77W
09/21/2012 LEELANAU MI SPOTTER
WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY SPOTTER LASTING APPROXIMATELY 5
MINUTES.
&&
$$
BERGER
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KAPX [211436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211436
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
09/20/2012 M42 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION
&&
$$
LOCKER
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1036 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
09/20/2012 M42 MPH LEELANAU MI C-MAN STATION
&&
$$
LOCKER
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KAPX [211431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KAPX 211431
LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM HAIL 4 NW BELLAIRE 45.02N 85.26W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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LSRAPX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM HAIL 4 NW BELLAIRE 45.02N 85.26W
09/21/2012 E0.25 INCH ANTRIM MI NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
$$
JARNOTT
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
ACUS01 KWNS 211311
SWODY1
SPC AC 211309
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED TO FILL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS COMPOSED
OF A WESTERN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE
BLOCKING NATURE OF THE FLOW ONLY A SMALL EWD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE AND A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
...MIDWEST...
MORNING PROFILER AND VWP DATA DEPICT A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
ACROSS A WEAK RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN OK TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THIS ZONE
CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER
TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
WRN IL THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A
NARROW PLUME OF MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
ERN MO INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...IN COMBINATION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 300-800 J/KG WITHIN THE
COMPACT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. THESE MLCAPE
ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN LATEST NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
MASS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID/UPPER JET NOSING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FOCUS ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE STORM INITIATION
SEEMS MOST LIKELY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 50-60KT WILL
RESULT IN ADEQUATE SHEAR PERSISTING/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STORMS
CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND HAIL. SOME FORECAST HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE SFC
LOW OVER IL EXHIBIT MODEST SRH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL ON GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MATERIALIZES AND ACTS TO BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES.
..CARBIN.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211309
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED TO FILL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS COMPOSED
OF A WESTERN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE
BLOCKING NATURE OF THE FLOW ONLY A SMALL EWD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE AND A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
...MIDWEST...
MORNING PROFILER AND VWP DATA DEPICT A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
ACROSS A WEAK RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN OK TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THIS ZONE
CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER
TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
WRN IL THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A
NARROW PLUME OF MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
ERN MO INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...IN COMBINATION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 300-800 J/KG WITHIN THE
COMPACT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. THESE MLCAPE
ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN LATEST NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
MASS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID/UPPER JET NOSING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FOCUS ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE STORM INITIATION
SEEMS MOST LIKELY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 50-60KT WILL
RESULT IN ADEQUATE SHEAR PERSISTING/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STORMS
CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND HAIL. SOME FORECAST HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE SFC
LOW OVER IL EXHIBIT MODEST SRH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL ON GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MATERIALIZES AND ACTS TO BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES.
..CARBIN.. 09/21/2012
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KSGF [211245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 211245
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM FLOOD 5 NNE BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.33W
09/21/2012 GREENE MO OTHER FEDERAL
THE USGS GAGE AT WILSON CREEK GAGE BRIEFLY WENT OVER 7
FEET. WATER WAS OVER ROADWAY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 AM FLOOD 5 NNE BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.33W
09/21/2012 GREENE MO OTHER FEDERAL
THE USGS GAGE AT WILSON CREEK GAGE BRIEFLY WENT OVER 7
FEET. WATER WAS OVER ROADWAY FOR ABOUT AN HOUR.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211241
SWODY1
SPC AC 211239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS COMPOSED
OF A WESTERN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE
BLOCKING NATURE OF THE FLOW ONLY A SMALL EWD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE AND A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
...MIDWEST...
MORNING PROFILER AND VWP DATA DEPICT A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
ACROSS A WEAK RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN OK TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THIS ZONE
CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER
TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
WRN IL THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A
NARROW PLUME OF MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
ERN MO INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...IN COMBINATION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 300-800 J/KG WITHIN THE
COMPACT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. THESE MLCAPE
ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN LATEST NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
MASS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID/UPPER JET NOSING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FOCUS ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE STORM INITIATION
SEEMS MOST LIKELY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 50-60KT WILL
RESULT IN ADEQUATE SHEAR PERSISTING/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STORMS
CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND HAIL. SOME FORECAST HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE SFC
LOW OVER IL EXHIBIT MODEST SRH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL ON GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MATERIALIZES AND ACTS TO BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES.
..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS COMPOSED
OF A WESTERN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE AND A DOWNSTREAM DEEP TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE
BLOCKING NATURE OF THE FLOW ONLY A SMALL EWD SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL EDGE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE AND A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
...MIDWEST...
MORNING PROFILER AND VWP DATA DEPICT A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
ACROSS A WEAK RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN OK TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING WITHIN THIS ZONE
CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED TSTM INITIATION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
SRN MO. THIS CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING EAST OF THE MS RIVER LATER
TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
WRN IL THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A
NARROW PLUME OF MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED FROM
ERN MO INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR...IN COMBINATION WITH AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO REACH 300-800 J/KG WITHIN THE
COMPACT WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. THESE MLCAPE
ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN LATEST NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE
AND CLOSER TO LATEST HRRR AND SREF GUIDANCE.
MASS ADJUSTMENTS IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID/UPPER JET NOSING OVER
THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FOCUS ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE STORM INITIATION
SEEMS MOST LIKELY. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 50-60KT WILL
RESULT IN ADEQUATE SHEAR PERSISTING/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STORMS
CAPABLE OF BOTH WIND AND HAIL. SOME FORECAST HODOGRAPHS NEAR THE SFC
LOW OVER IL EXHIBIT MODEST SRH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SOME WEAK/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL ON GREATER DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MATERIALIZES AND ACTS TO BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES.
..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 09/21/2012
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 210856
SWOD48
SPC AC 210855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS BOTH DEPICT GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WITH TIME. THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE INVOF HUDSON BAY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN/SHIFT EWD...LEAVING
A MUCH WEAKER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CONUS.
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW FIELD ALOFT...A FAIRLY BENIGN SURFACE
PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS BACKGROUND PATTERN...LITTLE
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE EVENT...WHICH PRECLUDES
THE INCLUSION OF ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 210855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS BOTH DEPICT GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WITH TIME. THE LARGE UPPER CYCLONE INVOF HUDSON BAY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN/SHIFT EWD...LEAVING
A MUCH WEAKER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE CONUS.
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW FIELD ALOFT...A FAIRLY BENIGN SURFACE
PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS BACKGROUND PATTERN...LITTLE
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FOR A HIGHER-END SEVERE EVENT...WHICH PRECLUDES
THE INCLUSION OF ANY THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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KICT [210813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KICT 210813
LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0312 AM HAIL 1 E ARKANSAS CITY 37.07N 97.02W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH COWLEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
BDK
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LSRICT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0312 AM HAIL 1 E ARKANSAS CITY 37.07N 97.02W
09/21/2012 E0.88 INCH COWLEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
BDK
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KSGF [210801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 210801
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 AM HAIL 3 W SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHESTNUT EXPRESSWAY AND
I-44.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 AM HAIL 3 W SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHESTNUT EXPRESSWAY AND
I-44.
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 210733
SWODY3
SPC AC 210731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PREVAILING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A WEAK LOW INVOF ERN OREGON EARLY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE NRN NV VICINITY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 210731
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PREVAILING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A WEAK LOW INVOF ERN OREGON EARLY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE NRN NV VICINITY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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KSGF [210725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 210725
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0224 AM HAIL 3 E SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.23W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR SUNSHINE AND LONE PINE
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0224 AM HAIL 3 E SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.23W
09/21/2012 E0.50 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC
DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR SUNSHINE AND LONE PINE
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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KSGF [210658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 210658
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0157 AM HAIL 5 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.25N 93.22W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT I-44/U.S. 65 INTERSECTION
IN NORTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD.
&&
$$
BOXELL
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0157 AM HAIL 5 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.25N 93.22W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT I-44/U.S. 65 INTERSECTION
IN NORTHEASTERN SPRINGFIELD.
&&
$$
BOXELL
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KSGF [210653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 210653
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 AM HAIL 3 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.23N 93.25W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO 911 CALL CENTER
&&
$$
BOXELL
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0147 AM HAIL 3 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.23N 93.25W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO 911 CALL CENTER
&&
$$
BOXELL
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KSGF [210652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 210652
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0151 AM HAIL 3 WNW SPRINGFIELD 37.21N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0151 AM HAIL 3 WNW SPRINGFIELD 37.21N 93.34W
09/21/2012 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
MGRIFFIN
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 210551
SWODY2
SPC AC 210549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT ALSO PROGRESSES ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CREST THROUGH MIDDAY...AND THEN OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL IT DOES...THIS FRONT
SHOULD FOCUS AN AREA OF PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A
SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
REGION.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A
BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO GA/AL.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE ERN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...SOME
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY OCCUR -- WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID EVENING...THREAT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT ATTM TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS -- INCLUDING THE
ALBANY/NEW YORK CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON D.C. METRO
AREAS.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 210549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WHILE AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT ALSO PROGRESSES ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CREST THROUGH MIDDAY...AND THEN OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL IT DOES...THIS FRONT
SHOULD FOCUS AN AREA OF PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
MEANWHILE FARTHER W...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...THOUGH A
SMALL-SCALE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
REGION.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A
BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO GA/AL.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LACK OF ROBUST INSTABILITY SHOULD TEMPER
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE ERN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR...SOME
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND MAY OCCUR -- WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
THREAT SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH MID EVENING...THREAT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT ATTM TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY NARROW SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS -- INCLUDING THE
ALBANY/NEW YORK CITY/PHILADELPHIA/BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON D.C. METRO
AREAS.
..GOSS.. 09/21/2012
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1977
ACUS11 KWNS 210545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210545
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-210745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210545Z - 210745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS SWRN MO WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH BASES ROOTED
AROUND 750-725 MB PER METAR CEILING HEIGHTS...THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE AOB
1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NWLYS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND
ONLY MODEST SPEED SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE ROBUST UPDRAFT ROTATION. 00Z
WRF-NSSL/NMM RUNS WERE A BIT SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEIR
SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
CLUSTER. THIS TYPE OF MODE AND LACK OF STRONGER CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
SHOULD MITIGATE LARGER HAIL GROWTH.
..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36999449 37319293 37189109 37009047 36509055 36169102
35889186 35779262 35759393 35939463 36309494 36999449
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210545
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-210745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210545Z - 210745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS SWRN MO WITHIN A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH BASES ROOTED
AROUND 750-725 MB PER METAR CEILING HEIGHTS...THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING ON THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE AOB
1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS BELOW THE CLOUD
BASE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL W/NWLYS IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND
ONLY MODEST SPEED SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE ROBUST UPDRAFT ROTATION. 00Z
WRF-NSSL/NMM RUNS WERE A BIT SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT THEIR
SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE WITH CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE INTO A
CLUSTER. THIS TYPE OF MODE AND LACK OF STRONGER CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
SHOULD MITIGATE LARGER HAIL GROWTH.
..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 09/21/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36999449 37319293 37189109 37009047 36509055 36169102
35889186 35779262 35759393 35939463 36309494 36999449
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 210539
SWODY1
SPC AC 210537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
LATE EVENING MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY THEN TRACK SEWD TOWARD ECNTRL
MO/WCNTRL IL BY 22/00Z. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP NWD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO
THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE AS IT
SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD SRN IL. NAM/RUC40 GUIDANCE
SUGGEST MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER WARM SECTOR TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME. EVEN SO THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE SFC LOW AROUND 00Z ACROSS ECNTRL
MO/WCNTRL IL BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY MAY BE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF SEVERE DESPITE THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BUT WILL REEVALUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AS
MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AFTER SUNRISE.
...FL...
DEEP MOIST PROFILES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AS
WEAK SWLY FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO WEAK CONVECTIVE THERMALS THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN FAVORED REGIONS INFLUENCED BY WARMER LAKE WATERS. WHILE
LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS A FEW
STORMS COULD DRIFT INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 210537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
LATE EVENING MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH VALLEY REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID MO VALLEY THEN TRACK SEWD TOWARD ECNTRL
MO/WCNTRL IL BY 22/00Z. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP NWD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MO
THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE AS IT
SPREADS/DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD SRN IL. NAM/RUC40 GUIDANCE
SUGGEST MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION BUT IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER WARM SECTOR TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VEERED BOUNDARY LAYER REGIME. EVEN SO THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE NEAR THE SFC LOW AROUND 00Z ACROSS ECNTRL
MO/WCNTRL IL BUT FORECAST INSTABILITY MAY BE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT OF SEVERE DESPITE THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BUT WILL REEVALUATE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AS
MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AFTER SUNRISE.
...FL...
DEEP MOIST PROFILES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AS
WEAK SWLY FLOW REGIME PERSISTS AHEAD OF DIGGING GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY TROUGH. CONVECTION SHOULD READILY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO WEAK CONVECTIVE THERMALS THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TSTMS.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BENEATH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN FAVORED REGIONS INFLUENCED BY WARMER LAKE WATERS. WHILE
LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS A FEW
STORMS COULD DRIFT INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.
..DARROW/GARNER.. 09/21/2012
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