WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 195

WWUS20 KWNS 270303
SEL5
SPC WW 270303
ALZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 195 ISSUED AT 455 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ALABAMA
GEORGIA
NORTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 196

WWUS20 KWNS 270303
SEL6
SPC WW 270303
KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-270700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KENTUCKY
OHIO
WEST VIRGINIA

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 194

WWUS20 KWNS 270303
SEL4
SPC WW 270303
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194 ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
KENTUCKY
TENNESSEE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 193

WWUS20 KWNS 270203
SEL3
SPC WW 270203
OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-270200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 193 ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OHIO
PENNSYLVANIA
WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 191

WWUS20 KWNS 270203
SEL1
SPC WW 270203
INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LMZ000-270200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MICHIGAN
OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 196

WWUS20 KWNS 270150
SEL6
SPC WW 270150
KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-270700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST OHIO
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 25 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PARKERSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTINGTON
WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 193...WW
194...WW 195...

DISCUSSION...SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY/OH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. HOWEVER...IN THE
MEANTIME... CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ALONG OH RIVER COUNTIES OF OH AND WV.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..HART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270107
SWODY1
SPC AC 270105

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD ALONG
THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TO WRN GA/NRN FL...

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SWD TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR SRN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING WITH A BROAD BELT OF 60-70KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATING
THROUGH THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH... FROM THE TN
VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND OROGRAPHY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A NARROWING AXIS OF LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS EXISTING BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...AND THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE
NARROWING WARM SECTOR WAS BEING AIDED BY STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THESE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS... AND PRONOUNCED LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WERE COMPENSATING FOR
GENERALLY WANING INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AND
A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OR TWO FROM OH SWD ACROSS ERN KY/TN. RECENT
DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF
THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT...FROM NWRN GA INTO NERN AL.

WHILE SEVERAL STORMS REMAIN QUITE INTENSE AND MAY BE PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL AT THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
PROBABLY REACHED A PEAK. ENSUING AND CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DEVELOP
INTO/ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIER/RESIDUAL CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS.

..NC/VA...
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER AREA THIS EVENING. WELL DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION AND A MESOSCALE
FINE-LINE...ON LEADING EDGE OF SOUTHEAST NC MOISTURE SURGE...HAS
RECENTLY INTERSECTED AND MERGED WITH THE FRONT NW OF RDU. ONLY A
COUPLE OF MEAGER ATTEMPTS AT UPDRAFT/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAVE
OCCURRED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...ACROSS SRN VA...AND THIS
CONVECTION WAS WELL REMOVED FROM STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN NC.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE STEADILY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NEWD. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS A
RESULT OF THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE IN A REGION OF SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. WHILE ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND EVENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A SLGT RISK OVER THE AREA.

..HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN CO.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO NWRN KS SHORTLY. DESPITE
SPARSE MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER
IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE
MOUNTAINS/FRONT RANGE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM ONE
OR TWO OF THESE CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

.CARBIN.. 04/27/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0604

ACUS11 KWNS 270026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270026
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-270200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL/NW GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 270026Z - 270200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

LIMITED THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. A SEGMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT/WIND SHIFT NOW EXTENDS JUST EAST BHM AND IT APPEARS FROM RADAR
THAT NEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS...AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND 500MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
HOWEVER...A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM NERN AL THROUGH
TN...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE
KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS NOTED
BY LONG LIVED CELL THAT PRODUCED SOME WIND DAMAGE IN CHEROKEE CO
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THAT PARTICULAR CELL HAS WEAKENED...BUT VAD
WIND DATA FROM NEAR ATLANTA SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL ROTATION WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ROOT THEMSELVES
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

.TAYLOR.. 04/27/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

34028422 34018648 35338600 35358365

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0603

ACUS11 KWNS 262357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262357
KYZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-270130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...ERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...

VALID 262357Z - 270130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.

A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WW 194 FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF WW 194 AND
WATCH EXTENSIONS ARE BEING CONSIDERED ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER FAR NW IND WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IN...WRN KY INTO WCNTRL TN. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A MOIST AXIS EXISTS WITH LOWER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS FROM ERN
TN EXTENDING NWD TO THE CINCINNATI OH AREA. A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN ERN TN. THE SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING DUE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOWN ON
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. THE MORRISTOWN TN VWP IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR BELOW 1 KM.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...500 MB TEMPS ARE
COLD AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SHOWN TO BE 7.5 C/KM ON RUC
ANALYSIS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

35288394 35318488 35938502 36548478 38128425 38738375
38778312 38438269 37258295 36208334

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 192

WWUS20 KWNS 262303
SEL2
SPC WW 262303
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-262300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
603 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192 ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ALABAMA
FLORIDA
GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0602

ACUS11 KWNS 262242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262242
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...NRN AND CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 191...193...

VALID 262242Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 191 AND TORNADO WATCH
193 CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW OVER FAR NE IL/FAR NW IND
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS NRN IND AND NCNTRL OH.
SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES...THE WARM SECTOR CONTAINS
SEVERAL POCKETS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL IND WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LINE PRESENT ACROSS FAR
ERN IND AND FAR NRN KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A
DRY SLOT AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 50 KT WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR EVIDENT ON LOCAL WSR-88D
VWPS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A SUPERCELL AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A POCKET OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NRN IND AND NW OH WHICH SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...

39288217 38438308 38608426 39928557 40568725 41508725
41818655 41838427 41308135 40198120

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0601

ACUS11 KWNS 262227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262226
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-262330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SW GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192...

VALID 262226Z - 262330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 192 CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS MOST INTENSE PART OF CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDS FROM
DHN/PFN. THREAT DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT AS CIRRUS SHIELD FROM
EARLIER STORMS HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CNTRL/SW GA. ANY REMAINING
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE
AND WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 23Z.

.TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

30008546 30038623 31008584 31578526 31268467

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0600

ACUS11 KWNS 262155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262155
INZ000-ILZ000-262330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL AND WRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262155Z - 262330Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NE IL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...A LOW CENTER IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
FAR ERN IA WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18
C/ LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
FORMATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM AND THIS MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.

.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

38678629 38608803 39428892 40408878 40968824 41198700
41008622 40298540 39178541

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 195

WWUS20 KWNS 262154
SEL5
SPC WW 262154
ALZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST ALABAMA
NORTH GEORGIA
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ROME
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 192...WW
193...WW 194...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN SAME REGIME SUPPORTING
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN MIDDLE/ERN TN.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGEST ALONG WRN FRINGE OF SW/NE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0599

ACUS11 KWNS 262133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262133
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-262230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA/NERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 262133Z - 262230Z

..TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...

LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A FEW CELLS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
GA AND NERN AL. THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THAT SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF WW 194.

.TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

33788490 33918614 34248648 35358635 35338359 33798386

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0598

ACUS11 KWNS 262106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262105
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO/WRN NEB/SW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262105Z - 262230Z

..POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH HIGH BASED TSTMS THIS
AFTN...

LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM JUST
SOUTHEAST OF RIVERTON TO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HEATED UP TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PLAINS...CONTRIBUTING TO
SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER ECNTRL MT/CNTRL WY THIS AFTN. LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO FURTHER STEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 500MB TEMPS NEAR
-20C. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
DEGREES.

ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTN.
RIVERTON AND LANDER WY RECENTLY GUSTED ABOVE 30 KT WHEN STORMS
PASSED THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...

39560363 39610538 42780841 43570729 43870371 42880190
39210135

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 194

WWUS20 KWNS 262019
SEL4
SPC WW 262019
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 192...WW 193...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OVER THE OH/TN VLYS AS HEATING CONTINUES
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF 50 KT JET STREAK
LIFTING NEWD AROUND MO UPR LOW. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD
KEEP STORMS FAIRLY DISCRETE AND/OR IN BROKEN BANDS. COUPLED WITH
40-50 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION INVOF
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN PART OF WW /LEFT FROM EARLIER
STORMS/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/WIND AND
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

..CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 262003
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...THRU MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

..EAST OF MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND MODEST LAPSE RATES HAVE
SLOWED DESTABILIZATION. BUT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS TO
BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY/WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS IS WELL
AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST NOW ADVANCING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT TRAILS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IS PRECEDED BY AN INITIAL SURGE OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR...WHICH PROVIDES WESTERN EDGE OF CONTINUING SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...WHICH IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...50+ KT CYCLONIC 500
MB FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...FROM LEAD SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE APPALACHIANS.
STRONGEST UPPER FORCING IS SPREADING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WHERE A 40+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET IS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP/LIFT NORTHWARD TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
ENHANCE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING RISK FOR SUPERCELLS FROM PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WILL LIKELY RETREAT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...BUT A
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS MAY ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FURTHER... SUPPORTING A RISK OF TORNADOES
ACROSS THIS AREA...EVEN WELL AFTER DARK.

..NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE. LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING VERY STEEP
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL
ADVECTION...AND...DESPITE SPARSE MOISTURE...MODELS SUGGEST MIXED
LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. EVEN WITH PRONOUNCED
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A DEEP MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS. SOME
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

.KERR.. 04/26/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 193

WWUS20 KWNS 261951
SEL3
SPC WW 261951
OHZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-LEZ000-270200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 193
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ZANESVILLE OHIO TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLIN
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 192...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG RETREATING WARM
FRONT OVER EASTERN OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO
WESTERN PA WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..DARROW

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 192

WWUS20 KWNS 261943
SEL2
SPC WW 261943
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-262300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS GEORGIA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...

DISCUSSION...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST ABOVE
SLOWLY-MOVING SQLN. AREA RADARS AND SFC DATA SHOW WEAK LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION IN LINE BREAK NOW NEAR TOI. THIS MAY ENHANCE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY WARMS/MOISTENS AHEAD OF
LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0597

ACUS11 KWNS 261926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261926
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-262030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...NRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261926Z - 262030Z

STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT AIRMASS ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER ECNTRL OH IN
HARRISON COUNTY. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOW
DESTABILIZING ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN PA WHERE SHEAR
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION.
ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH SOME LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
OCCUR ALONG THIS WARM FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DARROW.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

42067986 40657922 39567950 39498058 40038193 41598190

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0596

ACUS11 KWNS 261912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261912
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE/SWRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261912Z - 262015Z

..THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THIS AFTN FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES...

DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS NOTED ON AREA RADARS. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST WAS A STORM JUST NORTHEAST OF TOI EXITING NRN BULLOCK CO
ALABAMA. THIS CELL HAD EXHIBITED A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
ROTATION...AND EARLIER HAD A REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL CELL IS JUST WEST OF TOI...AT THE NRN BREAK IN THE
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT. AREA VAD WIND DATA FROM MONTGOMERY AL AND
ATLANTA IS SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING CELLS...AND THE MAIN ISSUE THUS
FAR HAS BEEN THE INSTABILITY. SFC DEWPOINTS DROP OFF INTO 40S/50S IN
CNTRL/SRN GA...AND APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

WATCH MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE HEATED UP AHEAD OF THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.

.TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30778459 29788539 30408728 32868605 33718520 33658451
32988391 32058383

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0595

ACUS11 KWNS 261907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261907
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-262000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261907Z - 262000Z

BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE PARTIAL SUNSHINE HAS STEEPENED LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEEPENING SHOWERS
HAVE EVOLVED ALONG WRN EDGE OF THICKER WARM ADVECTION CLOUD SHIELD.
THESE ECHOES ARE EVOLVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORM ROTATION...HOWEVER ASIDE FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THIS REGION
IS NOT TERRIBLY CONVERGENT. CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE...AT LEAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPWARD STORM-SCALE GROWTH AND POSSIBLE WW.

.DARROW.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

38298366 35168491 35768656 37738656 38708552

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 191

WWUS20 KWNS 261828
SEL1
SPC WW 261828
INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LMZ000-270200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA
NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
TOLEDO OHIO TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CINCINNATI OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ALONG NW/SE AXIS OF DEEP ASCENT LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF IND/KY. HEATING AHEAD OF STORMS...COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE DEEP SWLY SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED STORMS WITH HAIL AND...ESPECIALLY INVOF WARM FRONT IN
NRN PART OF WW...ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0594

ACUS11 KWNS 261752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261751
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-261845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261751Z - 261845Z

SUSTAINED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER
ECNTRL IND...CLEARLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NEWD INTO A REGION OF MORE FOCUSED
CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS DESPITE THE ONGOING ORGANIZED
MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHEN THESE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
INTERACT WITH AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL ZONE.

.DARROW.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

41848628 41418347 39888242 38748339 38998478 40368575
41198691

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261729
SWODY2
SPC AC 261727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

..SYNOPSIS...
AT LEAST SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE U.S. IS UNDERWAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT
INTO SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES
REGION...WITH A CLOSED LOW NOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/BAJA...AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE BEGINNING TO DIG TO
THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LATTER IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINTAINING BROADER SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF THE PLAINS...AS WEAKENING REMNANTS OF A
SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW ACCELERATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME CUT OFF
OVER BAJA/THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.

..MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO ACCELERATE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES EN MASSE...WITH PERHAPS ONE IMPULSE
LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND ANOTHER PROGRESSING EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SLOW PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION
OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
EVOLVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE MIXED LAYER
CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG...BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW.

STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST OF THIS REGION...OFF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...BUT SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AND...TIMING OF MID/UPPER FORCING WITH
THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANTICIPATED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE SEEM MOST SUPPORTIVE OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO RISK OF HAIL.

..SRN PLATEAU/ROCKIES THROUGH CENTRAL STATES...
A RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST A LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD AREA.

STORMS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
THAT THIS MAY BE MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/ OZARK
PLATEAU REGION. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ROOTED IN AN
ELEVATED MOISTENING LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN/STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LIFT COULD
BECOME BRIEFLY JUXTAPOSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN/WHERE AN ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME FOR
AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION.

..PACIFIC COAST STATES...
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST FRIDAY...A MOISTENING AIR
MASS/DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES...POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
OREGON BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

.KERR.. 04/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261632
SWODY1
SPC AC 261629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS
INTO WV/VA/NC...AND PARTS OF AL/FL/GA....

..SYNOPSIS...
MO UPR LOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES E/NE TOWARD CHI THIS
EVENING AND TO NEAR LK HURON EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC
LOW NOW IN WRN IL SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE TO THE IL/IND BORDER THIS
EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE NE INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
WEAK CONFLUENCE AXES/COLD FRONTS TRAILING GENERALLY S FROM THE LOW
WILL ROTATE E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WARM
FRONT LIFTS N TO SRN LWR MI/OH/WV AND SRN VA.

..OH/ERN TN VLYS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...
BROAD DRY SLOT OF MO UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE
OH VLY TODAY...ENHANCING DESTABILIZATION OF MODERATELY MOIST WARM
SECTOR. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONFLUENCE AXES
IN THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME MODEST CIN TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN AREA OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IND AND LWR MI.

ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG...7C/KM LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 40+ KT DEEP SSWLY
SHEAR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VEERED TO SSWLY...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BOOST 0-1 KM SRH TO 100-200 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN SUPPORTIVE STORM
MODE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NEAR WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED
STORM MOTION SHOULD CARRY STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.

..SERN STATES TODAY...
SQLN NOW ENTERING THE WRN FL PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE AL...WHERE SFC HEATING COULD YIELD SOME
INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON. NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE LN IN WRN GA. BUT GRADUAL NEWD WITHDRAWAL OF STRONGER
WIND FIELD/UPR SUPPORT...VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND...AND WARM LAYER
AROUND 700 MB SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND 40+ KT DEEP
SWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

..MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
AREA ALONG AND JUST W/S OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WV/VA/NE NC MAY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG BENEATH 50+ KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT S OF FRONT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG/SVR TSTMS. UPR LEVEL FORCING WILL... HOWEVER...BE
WEAK...AS WILL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS... PROSPECTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE LOW. IF STORMS DO FORM... PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE SUB-CLOUD T/TD
SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELD. A LIMITED THREAT WOULD
ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 190

WWUS20 KWNS 261303
SEL0
SPC WW 261303
ALZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-261300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ALABAMA
LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261224
SWODY1
SPC AC 261221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NCENTRAL GULF COAST
NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MIDWEST AND EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TO THE CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LOW CENTER BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT LOWER MO VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO LWR MI AREA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. WARM FRONT FROM MO LOW
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IND AND THEN ESEWD ACROSS WV TO ERN
VA/NC BORDER. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AHEAD OF LOW TODAY POSSIBLY
TO THE SRN MI BORDER. DRY SLOT ROTATING NEWD AROUND LOW WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS TN/OH VALLEY TODAY AS STRONGER MID/UPPER WINDS SHIFT
E/NE ACROSS OH/TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES.

WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF RATHER ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT S OF LOW TO
LA IS MOIST AND CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.

..OH/ERN TN VALLEY...
THE DRY SLOT SPREADING ACROSS REGION THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW SURFACE
HEATING AND CORRESPONDING DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ILL DEFINED...EXCEPT POSSIBLY VICINITY
WARM FRONT MOVING NWD...BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON INHIBITION WILL
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...7C/KM
LAPSE RATES...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL POINT
SOUNDINGS INDICATING 20-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITIES FROM
100-200 M2/S2...PARTICULARLY VICINITY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGEST
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED BOTH
WITH LARGER HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT.

..SERN STATES...
THE LINER MCS FROM NRN AL TO SERN MS PERSISTS AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE CAPE TO
GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG...40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

..MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WITH STRONG HEATING TODAY IN CAROLINAS S OF WARM FRONT...AFTERNOON
CAPES WILL CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY SUPPORTS A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND 6C/KM AND 50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC T/TD SPREADS.

.HALES/GUYER.. 04/26/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0593

ACUS11 KWNS 261212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261212
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...

VALID 261212Z - 261345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 13Z...MAINLY INTO THE FL PNHDL AND FAR
SRN AL. ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

SLOW MOVING LINEAR MCS CONTINUES THIS MORNING FROM N OF MOB TO JUST
W OF BVE WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
OF 65-70 F. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING A DIURNAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH A DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY NOTED OVER SWRN
AL. LATEST VWP FROM MOB INDICATES THAT WIND PROFILE HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASING TENDENCY FOR VEERING THEN BACKING WITH HEIGHT...WITH A
GENERAL DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH
40-45 KT OBSERVED IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.

WHILE SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT BETTER
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS AND DESTABILIZES.

.MEAD.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...LIX...

32228807 31968734 29868696 29508834 28408907 28638954
30518997 30868927 30848894 31218875

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0592

ACUS11 KWNS 260947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260946
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PARTS OF LA/MS INTO SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...

VALID 260946Z - 261115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH 11-12Z.

AS OF 0935Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SLOW MOVING LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM E OF TCL TO JUST W OF GPT TO SW OF
HUM. WHILE THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE LINE IS SLOWLY TO THE
E...EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EXHIBITING CYCLONIC ROTATION HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED MOVING NEWD AT A MORE RAPID SPEED. AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THESE STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPES TO 200-400
J/KG.

MOB VWP INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OWING TO WEAK VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH 0-1 KM SRH
OF AROUND 150 M2/S2 STILL SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...EITHER SUPERCELLULAR OR VIA NON-DESCENDING PROCESS.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED
LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES.

.MEAD.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

32448849 32398780 32108775 31958744 29838703 29638838
28458885 28418975 28559139 30329123 30549068 31209048
31228938

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260855
SWOD48
SPC AC 260854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

..DISCUSSION...

MODELS SIMILAR IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD WITH EVOLVING PATTERN TO AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST WITH THIS PATTERN. BEYOND THIS TIME...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY WITH MAIN
BELT OF WLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THIS
REGION BY 04/28 AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SEVERAL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND SERN STATES. BY DAY 7-8 THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY THE ECMWF AND THE MRF TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN
THE HIGHLY TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF OVERALL PATTERN WHICH LOWERS
PREDICTABILITY... WILL NOT INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

.DIAL.. 04/26/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260702
SWODY3
SPC AC 260701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON DAY 3 IN EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2. WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS
WHICH IS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND IS THE HPC MODEL OF CHOICE
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROADER U.S. TROUGH AND CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
THE SERN STATES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH TX.
OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD.

..S CNTRL THROUGH S TX...

MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
OVER S TX. HOWEVER...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL N OF THIS
AREA...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY LIMIT INITIATION POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP ON COLD FRONT ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH S TX. HOWEVER...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS
TIME.

..TN VALLEY...

OTHER MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT.

.DIAL.. 04/26/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260612
SWODY2
SPC AC 260611

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
INITIALLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THEN
WWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND S TX. NRN PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE SWRN
PORTION REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NRN GULF OR LIFTS SLOWLY
NWD THROUGH S TX.

FARTHER W A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL OR SRN PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS BEING FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE NAM. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEWD
INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

..ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN OR CNTRL
CAROLINAS NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. MID TO UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT
NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN
VA AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM FROM ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY OR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR OVER WARM SECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6 KM FROM 30 TO 40 KT.
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK...

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGION IS TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF
MORE NRN TRACK OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MORE
LIMITED SINCE THE STRONGER ASCENT AND BEST POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION
WILL REMAIN N OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
DESTABILIZE AS A SLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WRN TX ADVECTS MODIFIED CP
AIR NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS UNTIL
POSSIBLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST
WITH ANY ELEVATED ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING FROM SWRN KS THROUGH
WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CAP
WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER S ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NWRN TX ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DIAL.. 04/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260609
SWODY1
SPC AC 260607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST NWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MIDWEST AND EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
NC/VA BORDER AREAS...

..SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CLOSED CYCLONE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD
THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND ERN GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. AS
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE SCALE TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY...STRONG WARM
FRONT...CURRENTLY NEAR AND ALIGNED WITH THE OH RIVER...WILL LIFT
NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA...OH...AND WRN PA ALLOWING MOIST WARM
SECTOR TO EXPAND ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...BELT OF STRONG WLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL ASSIST IN RELATIVELY FAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT...ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRIDAY.

WHILE FAST WLY AND LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF
THE ERN TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH...A PAIR OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN PATTERN AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST. A POSITIVE TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NRN PLAINS WILL EVOLVE DURING THE PERIOD AS A
NRN BRANCH IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES TO ERN MT/WY...AND THE
OTHER IMPULSE...NOW OVER CA...DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY.

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT FROM IL/IND...EWD ACROSS NRN KY AND OH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES
WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS AS SMALLER SCALE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DESPITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPORTING GREATER DESTABILIZATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING. NONETHELESS...MLCAPE TO
500 J/KG...AND SOME POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY IF SUN BREAKS
THROUGH...WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION...IN BANDS
AND CLUSTERS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND LOCALLY GREATER SHEAR
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CELLS
WITH A CHANCE FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. LOW-TOPPED MULTICELL
STORMS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO...ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOW CENTER...ACROSS IL/IND
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

IF STRONGER HEATING THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED CAN OCCUR OVER A LARGER
AREA FROM KY ACROSS IL/IND/OH...A GREATER RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE TSTMS MAY EVOLVE. THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

..TN/AL TO GA/APPALACHIANS...
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE FROM ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AREA ATTM. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
DESTABILIZING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM SRN AL ACROSS NRN GA AND ERN
TN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS LIFT AWAY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH RAPID
STORM MOTION AND ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..NC/VA...
WHILE RESIDUAL DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WRN VA AND NC...BACK-DOOR FRONT STALLED NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER
UPPER FORCING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS MIXED SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NAM-WRF SUGGESTING MORE VIGOROUS
DEEP-LAYER LIFT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND GFS
AND SREF INDICATING MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT EWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. PREFER THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH LOCALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN
NC...FUELING TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS MID LEVEL FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
STRENGTHEN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL/WIND IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND ANY ACTIVITY NEAR OR CROSSING THE FRONT POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.

.CARBIN/GUYER.. 04/26/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 190

WWUS20 KWNS 260542
SEL0
SPC WW 260542
ALZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-261300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1240 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA
LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES/HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH A MOIST
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH
CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS WATCH. AS LARGE SCALE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD ACROSS LWR/MID MS RIVER VALLEY...THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL MOVE EWD INTO SWRN AL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0591

ACUS11 KWNS 260450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260450
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 260450Z - 260615Z

THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR BUT THE
THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AR
EXTENDING SWD INTO NW AR. EAST OF THE FRONT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MUCH LARGER CNTRL PLAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN MS.

REGIONAL PROFILES IN THE NEW ORLEANS LA AREA SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 0-3 KM SHR VALUES AROUND 300
M2/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 700 METERS IN SE LA MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SFC-BASED AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STILL AROUND 6.0 C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF SE LA AND SRN
MS.

.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

28879056 29389137 29809136 30729050 31818942 32148883
31928810 31428766 30428808 29538911 28848993

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