SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260450
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260450Z - 260615Z
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR BUT THE
THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AR
EXTENDING SWD INTO NW AR. EAST OF THE FRONT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND
IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MUCH LARGER CNTRL PLAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN MS.
REGIONAL PROFILES IN THE NEW ORLEANS LA AREA SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 0-3 KM SHR VALUES AROUND 300
M2/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS BELOW 700 METERS IN SE LA MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SFC-BASED AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE STILL AROUND 6.0 C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF SE LA AND SRN
MS.
.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
28879056 29389137 29809136 30729050 31818942 32148883
31928810 31428766 30428808 29538911 28848993
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