MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944

ACUS11 KWNS 110340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110340
OKZ000-TXZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...

VALID 110340Z - 110515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
CONTINUES.

...WANING LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...CONTINUES TO SURGE
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN OK AND WRN N TX AT 0330Z. CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED STORMS HAVE EVOLVED ATOP A DEEPENING FRONTAL
INVERSION OVER CNTRL OK WITH COMPARATIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED
ACTIVITY IN SRN OK/WRN N TX AMIDST STRONGER INSTABILITY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND WRN N TX
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS TONIGHT. AS THE NUMBER OF STORMS INCREASE
AND COMPETITION FOR LEFT-OVER WANING INSTABILITY COMMENCES...THE
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL DECREASE. THUS...A NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

..RACY.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35419963 36279801 35979704 34329711 34059822 33539922
33729979 34689986 35419963

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KOUN [110210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110210
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL 3 N CYRIL 34.94N 98.20W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT HAIL WAS COVERING HIGHWAY 8
NORTH OF CYRIL.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110206
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
906 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 PM HAIL 4 E MEERS 34.78N 98.50W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR MEERS PORTER HILL ROAD AND HWY
58.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110159
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
859 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM HAIL MEERS 34.78N 98.57W
10/10/2010 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110144
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HAIL STECKER 34.95N 98.32W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110135
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 PM HAIL VERDEN 35.08N 98.09W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110117
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
817 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL ALTUS 34.64N 99.33W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110104
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 PM HAIL 2 E ANADARKO 35.07N 98.21W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH A WIND GUST OF 59
MPH.

0801 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E ANADARKO 35.07N 98.21W
10/10/2010 M59 MPH CADDO OK TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1943

ACUS11 KWNS 110054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110054
OKZ000-TXZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...

VALID 110054Z - 110230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
CONTINUES.

...LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH LATE
EVENING...

DISCRETE STORMS/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONT
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN OK/WRN N TX WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE
INTO COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS AS THEY APPROACH THE I-44
CORRIDOR THROUGH 03Z. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND PRE-EXISTING
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL MAINTAIN THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL /UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS/
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS. LEADING STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
PRIOR TO ARRIVING IN THE SRN OKC METRO AREA AS THEY BECOME MORE
REMOVED FROM STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESERVOIR. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH LATE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...LINEAR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BACKBUILDING SW FROM
NCNTRL OK TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR CLINTON WITH SUBSEQUENT SLOW
EWD MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ATOP A 1-1.5 KM
FRONTAL INVERSION AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

..RACY.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35419963 36279801 35979704 34329711 34059822 33539922
33729979 34689986 35419963

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110054
SWODY1
SPC AC 110053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN OK...

...NW TX TO SW OK...
ZONE OF FOCUSED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. QG-FORCING ALONG SRN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROKEN
BAND OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION FROM NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER INTO OK. A SMALL MCS WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINED ATOP A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND SERN KS THIS EVENING.

THE MOST CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH REGARD TO
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 00 UTC OUN
RAOB WHICH SHOWS PRE-STORM MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER SCALE LIFT
TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. SPC HAILCAST FROM THE OUN
OBSERVED SOUNDING RESULTS IN A HAILSTONE SIZE OF 1.5 INCHES AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HEIGHTENED BY RECENT STORM REPORTS
FROM WEST OF THE CNTRL OK AREA.

RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

...ELSEWHERE...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE PLAINS UPPER
LOW...FROM ERN WY/NERN CO TO NWRN KS AND CNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LIFT WITH A COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS WEAK INSTABILITY...AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN ID OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 10/11/2010

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KOUN [110051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110051
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 2 W ANADARKO 35.07N 98.28W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

0748 PM HAIL 1 N ANADARKO 35.08N 98.24W
10/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110020
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HAIL FORT COBB 35.10N 98.44W
10/10/2010 E1.75 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

HALF-DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN FORT
COBB.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110012
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
712 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL CARNEGIE 35.10N 98.60W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT AT THE CARNEGIE POLICE STATION ESTIMATED
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KOUN [110005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110005
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
705 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM HAIL 3 W FORT COBB 35.10N 98.49W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 3 TO 4 MILES WEST OF
FORT COBB ON HIGHWAY 9.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [110001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110001
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
701 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM HAIL 2 NE CARNEGIE 35.12N 98.57W
10/10/2010 M1.50 INCH CADDO OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [102348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 102348
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL 4 ESE HOBART 35.00N 99.03W
10/10/2010 E0.88 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED 2 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 ON
OZARK TRAIL ROAD.

0647 PM HAIL 2 N CARNEGIE 35.13N 98.60W
10/10/2010 E1.25 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO

THE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON HWY 58.

&&

$$

TY/LB

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KOUN [102342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 102342
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 PM HAIL 6 NE MOUNTAIN VIEW 35.16N 98.68W
10/10/2010 E1.00 INCH WASHITA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL 6.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN
VIEW...REPORT RELAYED THROUGH KIOWA COUNTY DISPATCH.

&&

$$

BAIN

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KTOP [102248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 102248
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0527 PM TSTM WND GST SCRANTON 38.78N 95.74W
10/10/2010 E50 MPH OSAGE KS PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KTOP [102247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 102247
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
547 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0516 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S OSAGE CITY 38.61N 95.83W
10/10/2010 E50 MPH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 50 MPH
BLOWING OVER LOOSE ITEMS IN YARD.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 697

WWUS20 KWNS 102229
SEL7
SPC WW 102229
OKZ000-TXZ000-110500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN OK...AND TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.

...HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1942

ACUS11 KWNS 102221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102220
OKZ000-TXZ000-102315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SWRN OK...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 102220Z - 102315Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID-EVENING AND A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CNTRL/SW OK AND
WRN N TX.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INCREASING NEAR
A TRIPLE POINT OVER COTTLE COUNTY TX AND POINTS NE INTO SW OK ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE TAIL OF A
PV-ANOMALY SWINGS SEWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER...STRONGER CORES WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

..RACY.. 10/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 33739903 34289970 34979983 35929970 36179731 34999706
34119792 33739903

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KDDC [102143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 102143
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
443 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 1 ESE KIOWA 37.01N 98.46W
10/10/2010 E0.75 INCH BARBER KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1941

ACUS11 KWNS 102012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102012
OKZ000-TXZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK AND PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102012Z - 102145Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE OVER SWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX BY 23Z...AND THEN MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ROUNDING ITS BASE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE HAS FOCUSED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NWRN/N-CNTRL OK DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL WAS LOCATED NEAR OKC AT 20Z...AND
EXTENDED WSW ALONG A LINE TOWARD CSM AND THEN W TO 50 N OF CDS. S OF
THIS BOUNDARY...A WEAK N-S ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED OVER W TX. OVER THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SWRN/CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S
F...WHILE A TONGUE OF MID 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/AOA 7.5 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ HAS OVERSPREAD THIS
SURFACE AIR MASS...WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SFCOA GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW LARGE CINH
VALUES /AOA 50 J PER KG/ LOCATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD 22-23Z...POSSIBLY IN
RESPONSE TO PEAK SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TROUGH AXIS. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA
INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR/ FOR PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL
EXIST...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 10/10/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33589756 33419926 33840031 34860034 35569963 35919824
35799659 35079627 34329655 33589756

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF OK AND
ADJACENT NWRN TX...

...OK/WRN N TX REGION...
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING
NEWD ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL VORT MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE NEB LOW. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO SWRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX/THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN OK VORT MAX...ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE FEATURE SHIFTING SSEWD ACROSS SERN CO MAY PROVIDE ASCENT
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME OVER SWRN OK/WRN N TX.

WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING CELLS...ISOLATED
HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS REMAINS
APPARENT...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SHORT-LIVED --
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

..GOSS.. 10/10/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010/

...SRN PLAINS...
WHILE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEB WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TODAY...A
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT VICINITY SWRN KS/OK AREA
IS SPREADING EWD AND SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH PWAT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION
AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED
STORMS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...A RELATIVELY DEEP AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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KSEW [101728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 101728
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1028 AM PDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW VAUGHN 47.35N 122.78W
10/10/2010 M3.12 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING AT 6 AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.50W
10/10/2010 M3.35 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

17 HRS ENDING AROUND 8AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW MONTESANO 46.97N 123.65W
10/10/2010 M2.66 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

ENDING AROUND 8 AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N CARNATION 47.69N 121.91W
10/10/2010 M2.50 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING AROUND 8 AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW VESTA 46.86N 123.66W
10/10/2010 M3.37 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HRS ENDING AROUND 8 AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE NORTH BEND 47.48N 121.76W
10/10/2010 M2.19 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN THE PAST 18 HRS

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN S KENMORE 47.76N 122.24W
10/10/2010 M3.10 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN PAST 24 HRS.

&&

$$

GBP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101718
SWODY2
SPC AC 101717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CANADA AND
INTO THE ADJACENT NRN CONUS...WHILE FARTHER S A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FIELD -- CENTERED OVER KS/OK -- WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NWRN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES WRN CANADA AND
THE NWRN U.S./NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY
REGION. FINALLY...BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS KS/OK THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...E TX AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS STEADILY SEWD.
SE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A NWD SPREAD OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE WIDESPREAD BUT MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER
THIRD TO HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL HAVE SOME
DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING. ISOLATED STORMS WHICH CAN REACH SEVERE
LEVELS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.

...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK W-E COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED CELLS -- AIDED BY MODERATE
WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT -- MAY PROVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL
AND/OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 10/10/2010

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KTFX [101627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101627
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1027 AM MDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
10/10/2010 M47.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SITE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MILES PER HOUR OR GREATER BETWEEN 739 AND 953 AM.

&&

$$

CZELZER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101612
SWODY1
SPC AC 101610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WRN OK AND
NWRN TX...

...SRN PLAINS...
WHILE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEB WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TODAY...A
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT VICINITY SWRN KS/OK AREA
IS SPREADING EWD AND SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH PWAT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION
AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED
STORMS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...A RELATIVELY DEEP AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/10/2010

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KCHS [101545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 101545
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1145 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.92W
10/10/2010 AMZ330 SC OTHER FEDERAL

THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE REACHED A PEAK TIDE LEVEL
OF 7.07 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHEN
TIDES REACH 7.0 FEET AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

$$

VB

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KLWX [101439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 101439
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1039 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD TYSONS GREEN 38.92N 77.26W
09/30/2010 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION CLOSED AT OLD COURTHOUSE ROAD AND BURRLE
CT.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000986

$$

SBK

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KLWX [101429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KLWX 101429
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1029 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W WAYNEWOOD 38.73N 77.08W
09/30/2010 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION CLOSED AT WAYNEOOD BLVD AND DEWOLF.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000985

$$

SBK

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KMFR [101412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 101412
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
712 AM PDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/10/2010 M0.52 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATIVE TOTAL ENDING AT 7AM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KSEW [101326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 101326
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
626 AM PDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE SHELTON 47.27N 123.05W
10/10/2010 M3.75 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 0600

&&

$$

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KUNR [101324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 101324
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
724 AM MDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E PORCUPINE 43.24N 102.23W
10/10/2010 M1.64 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1.64 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KUNR [101323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 101323
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
723 AM MDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E PORCUPINE 43.24N 102.23W
10/10/2010 M0.00 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1.64 INCHES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101239
SWODY1
SPC AC 101237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...SRN PLAINS...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF
NOTE...ONE EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MN/IA SWWD THROUGH
ERN KS INTO NWRN OK WHERE IT LINKS WITH A SECONDARY...MORE
BAROCLINIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN NEB SWD
THROUGH WRN KS INTO WRN TX. THE WRN-MOST COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH IS
ROTATING AROUND PRIMARY DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER NEB.
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS KS/OK
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH WILL ATTEND
MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TRANSLATING SSEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS.

A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO
NWRN TX ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP
WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/10/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100802
SWOD48
SPC AC 100801

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A SEWD SURGE OF CP HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE GULF
FOR MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES LOOSELY PHASED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SEWD THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. GFS AND ECWMF ARE FASTER THAN THE NAM AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS THIS FORECAST.

...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

SOME CONVECTION MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY FROM ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AXIS OF 50S TO 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING FRONT BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -14
TO -16C AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. WHERE DIABATIC
WARMING OCCURS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY SHALLOW CAPE NEAR THE GULF COAST DUE TO
WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT FROM UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE. WEAKER FLOW WILL EXIST FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW
CENTER. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2010

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KUNR [100651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 100651
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1251 AM MDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE DEADWOOD 44.40N 103.70W
10/10/2010 M3.43 INCH LAWRENCE SD NWS EMPLOYEE

MOST OF THE RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS

&&

$$

WFO UNR

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100557
SWODY2
SPC AC 100556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. BEING CUTOFF FROM
POLAR WLYS...CNTRL U.S. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY AND IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD THROUGH KS INTO OK. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA
WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FARTHER EAST A STRONG IMPULSE WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH OK...CNTRL AND SWRN TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SEWD. FRONTAL ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER FRONT ACCOMPANYING A NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...

AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN RETURNING
NWD THROUGH TX AND OK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC HEATING
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CNTRL AND ERN TX...ERN OK INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK
INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MODULATED BY VORTICITY
MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE EQUIVALENT
BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN MOST OF
WARM SECTOR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH 30-35 KT
EXPECTED...BUT WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND PORTION OF NERN STATES...

NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
RESIDE BENEATH MODERATE MID-UPPER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE OH VALLEY BY EVENING.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKER IMPULSES TO MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF PRIMARY VORT MAX. PLUME OF 7-7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...NEAR 50 F DEWPOINTS AND DIABATIC WARMING
WILL SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT FORCING FOR GREATER STORM
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK INSTABILITY FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MODEST INSTABILITY
AND NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100521
SWODY1
SPC AC 100520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SW OK/NW TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FCST OVER PAC NW...SHUNTING NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
EWD. AS THIS OCCURS...CLOSED AND NEARLY CUT-OFF 500 MB CYCLONE --
NOW ANALYZED OVER SWRN SD/NWRN NEB AREA -- IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
SWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...REACHING WRN KS BY 11/12Z.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FROM
ERN KS ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN OK THROUGH 11/00Z...BEFORE SRN SEGMENT
LOSES DEFINITION AMIDST STRONGER MESOSCALE BAROCLINICITY RESULTING
FROM CONVECTIVE/OUTFLOW PROCESSES. WRN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER
PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS REGION MAY DRIFT SWD...ALONG WITH SFC LOW NOW
EVIDENT IN MESONET DATA SW PVW AND WNW LBB. MEANWHILE...OCCLUDED
SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL SD SHOULD WEAKEN IN FAVOR OF TRIPLE-POINT LOW
OVER SRN MN...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WI/LM.

...SW OK/NW TX...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD OVER PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NW
OK...WITH MRGL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL. E AND S OF MORNING
ACTIVITY...AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST SE OF SFC FRONT WILL BECOME
PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH SFC DEW POINTS ONLY ARE FCST IN 50S F...ABSOLUTE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE MRGL BUT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN WEAKLY CONVERGENT FRONTAL REGIME.
MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 10/21-11/00Z TIME
FRAME...ATOP WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINING HAIL
AND STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC.

SFC WINDS NEAR FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE WEAK...BUT ALSO BACKED
DIRECTIONALLY...AS PART OF REGIME OF STRENGTHENING/VEERING WITH
HEIGHT THAT RESULTS IN ENLARGED 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. ENHANCED
BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW -- I.E. 30-40 KT AT 500 MB -- WILL CURVE
CYCLONICALLY THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND
OK...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AND MOVE EWD ACROSS OK...SVR THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER
ABOUT 11/03Z AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING STABILIZES FOREGOING BOUNDARY
LAYER.

EXPECTED DENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER OUTLOOK AREA INDICATES
SUFFICIENT PROBABILITIES/COVERAGE OF AT LEAST MRGL SVR MAGNITUDES
FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/10/2010

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KCHS [100423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 100423
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1223 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/09/2010 CHARLESTON SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE REACHED A PEAK TIDE LEVEL
OF 7.58 FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHEN TIDES
REACH 7.0 FT AT THIS STATION.

1006 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 WNW TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.90W
10/09/2010 CHATHAM GA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE REACHED A PEAK TIDE LEVEL OF
9.31 FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINS ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDES REACH 9.2
FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT THIS STATION.

&&

$$

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