SWODY2
SPC AC 101717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CANADA AND
INTO THE ADJACENT NRN CONUS...WHILE FARTHER S A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
FIELD -- CENTERED OVER KS/OK -- WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NWRN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES WRN CANADA AND
THE NWRN U.S./NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SAG SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY
REGION. FINALLY...BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS KS/OK THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...E TX AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS STEADILY SEWD.
SE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A NWD SPREAD OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD BUT MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER
THIRD TO HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL HAVE SOME
DIFFICULTY ORGANIZING. ISOLATED STORMS WHICH CAN REACH SEVERE
LEVELS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...HOWEVER EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.
...UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK W-E COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AS DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVERALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED CELLS -- AIDED BY MODERATE
WLY/WNWLY FLOW ALOFT -- MAY PROVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL
AND/OR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
..GOSS.. 10/10/2010
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