NWUS52 KMLB 170211
LSRMLB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1011 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM RIP CURRENTS COCOA BEACH 28.35N 80.61W
09/16/2012 BREVARD FL NEWSPAPER
*** 1 FATAL *** A 66 YEAR OLD MALE WAS CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT. HE WAS PULLED TO SHORE BY EMERGNCY PERSONNEL AND
TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL, BUT DIED A SHORT TIME LATER.
REPORT FROM FLORIDA TODAY.
&&
$$
CRISTALDI
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Sunday, September 16, 2012
KCYS [170123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 170123
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
723 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
09/16/2012 M59 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT FOOTE CREEK SENSOR AT MILEPOST 269.5 ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM WEAK SHOWER OUTFLOW. NO LIGHTNING
OBSERVED.
&&
$$
HAHN
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
723 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
09/16/2012 M59 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WYDOT FOOTE CREEK SENSOR AT MILEPOST 269.5 ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM WEAK SHOWER OUTFLOW. NO LIGHTNING
OBSERVED.
&&
$$
HAHN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 170054
SWODY1
SPC AC 170052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD WITH TIME. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING THE MID/LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF S TX WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD -- WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PROGGED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE. A BROAD ZONE
OF DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE IF
ANY SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HERE TOO...LACK OF FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/17/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 170052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 170100Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD WITH TIME. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING THE MID/LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF S TX WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING ESEWD -- WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PROGGED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE. A BROAD ZONE
OF DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WILL
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...THOUGH
MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE IF
ANY SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HERE TOO...LACK OF FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PRECLUDES APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..GOSS.. 09/17/2012
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KRIW [162045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KRIW 162045
LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
245 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM TSTM WND GST 8 W THERMOPOLIS 43.65N 108.37W
09/16/2012 E72.00 MPH HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC
SPOTTER REPORT
&&
$$
KLB
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LSRRIW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
245 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0235 PM TSTM WND GST 8 W THERMOPOLIS 43.65N 108.37W
09/16/2012 E72.00 MPH HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC
SPOTTER REPORT
&&
$$
KLB
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KSGX [162001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS56 KSGX 162001
LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
101 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
09/15/2012 E95.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 11 INJ *** 11 HEAT RELATED INJURIES REQUIRING
HOSPITALIZATION BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM PDT AT A 5 KM RUN AT
BALBOA PARK. TEMPS RANGED BETWEEN 92 AND 99 DEGREES.AGES
OF INJURED RANGED BETWEEN 15 AND 17.
0935 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N RANCHO BERNARDO 33.05N 117.06W
09/15/2012 E93.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 1 INJ *** 45 YEAR OLD WOMAN APPARENTLY SUFFERED HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND WAS AIRLIFTED FORM A HIKING TRAIL NEAR
LAKE HODGES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE IN THE 90S AT
THE TIME.
1143 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N COSTA MESA 33.70N 117.91W
09/15/2012 M99.00 F ORANGE CA NEWSPAPER
*** 8 INJ *** HEAT EXHAUSTATION AND DEHYDRATION OF 8
RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN A CROSS COUNTRY TRACK MEET AT
FAIRVIEW PARK. SIX WERE TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITALS. TWO
WERE TREATED LOCALLY AND RELEASED. APPROXIMATE AGES ON
INJURED WERE 17 TO 20.
&&
$$
RBALFO
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LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
101 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
09/15/2012 E95.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 11 INJ *** 11 HEAT RELATED INJURIES REQUIRING
HOSPITALIZATION BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM PDT AT A 5 KM RUN AT
BALBOA PARK. TEMPS RANGED BETWEEN 92 AND 99 DEGREES.AGES
OF INJURED RANGED BETWEEN 15 AND 17.
0935 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N RANCHO BERNARDO 33.05N 117.06W
09/15/2012 E93.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 1 INJ *** 45 YEAR OLD WOMAN APPARENTLY SUFFERED HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND WAS AIRLIFTED FORM A HIKING TRAIL NEAR
LAKE HODGES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE IN THE 90S AT
THE TIME.
1143 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N COSTA MESA 33.70N 117.91W
09/15/2012 M99.00 F ORANGE CA NEWSPAPER
*** 8 INJ *** HEAT EXHAUSTATION AND DEHYDRATION OF 8
RUNNERS PARTICIPATING IN A CROSS COUNTRY TRACK MEET AT
FAIRVIEW PARK. SIX WERE TRANSPORTED TO HOSPITALS. TWO
WERE TREATED LOCALLY AND RELEASED. APPROXIMATE AGES ON
INJURED WERE 17 TO 20.
&&
$$
RBALFO
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161936
SWODY1
SPC AC 161934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 09/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012/
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO AK. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD INTO SRN SD AND NRN WY WILL SIMILARLY MOVE SEWD...REACHING A
LINE FROM NRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL IA INTO NWRN KS AND CO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA
EXTENDING FROM OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BUT OVERALL AIR MASS MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH PW AOB 1.0 IN. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS EWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF
INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SD INTO MN AND WI...AS A
WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB INHIBITS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
INITIATION. A FEW SREF WRF MEMBERS ALSO GENERATE A LOW PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT BUT THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY OVER THE
SRN MN/NRN IA AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 09/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012/
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO AK. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD INTO SRN SD AND NRN WY WILL SIMILARLY MOVE SEWD...REACHING A
LINE FROM NRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL IA INTO NWRN KS AND CO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA
EXTENDING FROM OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BUT OVERALL AIR MASS MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH PW AOB 1.0 IN. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS EWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF
INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SD INTO MN AND WI...AS A
WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB INHIBITS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
INITIATION. A FEW SREF WRF MEMBERS ALSO GENERATE A LOW PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT BUT THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY OVER THE
SRN MN/NRN IA AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
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KCHS [161757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161757
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM WATER SPOUT 1 ESE TYBEE ISLAND 32.01N 80.85W
09/16/2012 CHATHAM GA LIFEGUARD
TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED A BRIEF WATERSPOUT.
TIME AND POSITION WERE ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200773
$$
SPR
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1230 PM WATER SPOUT 1 ESE TYBEE ISLAND 32.01N 80.85W
09/16/2012 CHATHAM GA LIFEGUARD
TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED A BRIEF WATERSPOUT.
TIME AND POSITION WERE ESTIMATED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200773
$$
SPR
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KCHS [161754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 161754
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.86W
09/16/2012 CHATHAM GA LIFEGUARD
TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AND 2 RESCUES THUS FAR TODAY. MOST FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS
OCCURRED BETWEEN 15TH AND 17TH STREETS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200772
$$
SPR
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0145 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.02N 80.86W
09/16/2012 CHATHAM GA LIFEGUARD
TYBEE ISLAND LIFEGUARDS REPORTED NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AND 2 RESCUES THUS FAR TODAY. MOST FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS
OCCURRED BETWEEN 15TH AND 17TH STREETS.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1200772
$$
SPR
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KJAX [161726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 161726
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM RIP CURRENTS FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/15/2012 FLAGLER FL BROADCAST MEDIA
TV NEWS 13 IN ORLANDO REPORTED LIFEGUARDS SAVED AT LEAST
22 PEOPLE FROM RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY IN FLAGLER
COUNTY.
&&
$$
MZ
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
126 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0300 PM RIP CURRENTS FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/15/2012 FLAGLER FL BROADCAST MEDIA
TV NEWS 13 IN ORLANDO REPORTED LIFEGUARDS SAVED AT LEAST
22 PEOPLE FROM RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY IN FLAGLER
COUNTY.
&&
$$
MZ
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 161707
SWODY2
SPC AC 161706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL MO BY 21Z WITH LOW QUALITY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD.
TO THE S...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING WIND PROFILES WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT FROM LA INTO AL. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS BY TUE MORNING FROM THE
CNTRL GULF NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI...
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM MO INTO SERN
WI. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING POTENTIAL AROUND 700 MB DUE TO
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. THUS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE FRONT...IN WHICH CASE A MIXED STORM MODE COULD
OCCUR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR HAIL WITH SUFFICIENT
FLOW TO RESULT IN FAST STORM MOTIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL GIVEN A LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.
...CNTRL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO AL BY 12Z TUE ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WILL
INCREASE...AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
INDICATE THAT SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS OR EMBEDDED IN
AREAS OF PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..JEWELL.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 161706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL MO BY 21Z WITH LOW QUALITY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD.
TO THE S...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING WIND PROFILES WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT FROM LA INTO AL. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS BY TUE MORNING FROM THE
CNTRL GULF NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.
...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI...
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM MO INTO SERN
WI. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING POTENTIAL AROUND 700 MB DUE TO
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. THUS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE FRONT...IN WHICH CASE A MIXED STORM MODE COULD
OCCUR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR HAIL WITH SUFFICIENT
FLOW TO RESULT IN FAST STORM MOTIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL GIVEN A LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.
...CNTRL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO AL BY 12Z TUE ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WILL
INCREASE...AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
INDICATE THAT SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS OR EMBEDDED IN
AREAS OF PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..JEWELL.. 09/16/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161614
SWODY1
SPC AC 161612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO AK. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD INTO SRN SD AND NRN WY WILL SIMILARLY MOVE SEWD...REACHING A
LINE FROM NRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL IA INTO NWRN KS AND CO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA
EXTENDING FROM OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BUT OVERALL AIR MASS MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH PW AOB 1.0 IN. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS EWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF
INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SD INTO MN AND WI...AS A
WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB INHIBITS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
INITIATION. A FEW SREF WRF MEMBERS ALSO GENERATE A LOW PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT BUT THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY OVER THE
SRN MN/NRN IA AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..WEISS/ROGERS.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO AK. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD INTO SRN SD AND NRN WY WILL SIMILARLY MOVE SEWD...REACHING A
LINE FROM NRN LOWER MI/CENTRAL IA INTO NWRN KS AND CO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
A NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA
EXTENDING FROM OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY WHERE SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. MOISTURE MAY SPREAD NEWD
INTO PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
BUT OVERALL AIR MASS MOISTURE CONTENT IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH PW AOB 1.0 IN. HOWEVER...A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDS EWD FROM CO/WY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO
VALLEY...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
WITH MLCAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE SREF
INDICATE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF SD INTO MN AND WI...AS A
WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB INHIBITS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
INITIATION. A FEW SREF WRF MEMBERS ALSO GENERATE A LOW PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT BUT THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY OVER THE
SRN MN/NRN IA AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..WEISS/ROGERS.. 09/16/2012
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KSGF [161455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KSGF 161455
LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM FLOOD 5 N BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.37W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING AT COUNTY ROAD 146 ON WILSON CREEK
FLOODED.
1245 PM FLOOD 2 N GALLOWAY 37.16N 93.24W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING ON CONVINGTON ROAD NEAR GALLOWAY CREEK
FLOODED.
1245 PM FLOOD 5 N BATTLEFIELD 37.18N 93.37W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING AT COUNTY ROAD 123 ON WILSON CREEK
FLOODED.
&&
$$
AFOSTER
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LSRSGF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM FLOOD 5 N BATTLEFIELD 37.19N 93.37W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING AT COUNTY ROAD 146 ON WILSON CREEK
FLOODED.
1245 PM FLOOD 2 N GALLOWAY 37.16N 93.24W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING ON CONVINGTON ROAD NEAR GALLOWAY CREEK
FLOODED.
1245 PM FLOOD 5 N BATTLEFIELD 37.18N 93.37W
09/15/2012 GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR
LOW WATER CROSSING AT COUNTY ROAD 123 ON WILSON CREEK
FLOODED.
&&
$$
AFOSTER
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 161223
SWODY1
SPC AC 161221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...HELPING
TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD/MN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...OR TO
BE ELEVATED AND FORM WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL AREA OF LOW SEVERE WIND PROBS BUT THE THREAT SEEMS QUITE
MINIMAL.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..HART.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 161221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...HELPING
TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MN/WI AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SD/MN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...OR TO
BE ELEVATED AND FORM WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL AREA OF LOW SEVERE WIND PROBS BUT THE THREAT SEEMS QUITE
MINIMAL.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH TX
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..HART.. 09/16/2012
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 160849
SWOD48
SPC AC 160849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK MAY MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND EARLY DAY-4 PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL...AS PARENT PERTURBATION ALOFT
EJECTS INTO QUE. ATTM...TIMING OF SFC FROPA APPEARS TOO
VARIABLE/UNCERTAIN IN PROGS...AND PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY TOO
LIMITED...TO JUSTIFY 30% RISK AREA 4 DAYS OUT. FOLLOWING
THAT...MEAN/LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OVER GREAT LAKES/MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION BY SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES.
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE WILL INFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN WAKE OF DAY 3-4 COLD FROPA OFF ATLC COAST.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE DISPLACED TOO
FAR E AND SE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SVR EVENT
IN ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...SFC RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY REACH SWRN RIM OF STRONGER
NW FLOW ALOFT DAY-5/20TH-21ST...OVER PORTIONS KS/OK. WHILE STG-SVR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 160849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK MAY MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS NEW ENGLAND EARLY DAY-4 PERIOD WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL...AS PARENT PERTURBATION ALOFT
EJECTS INTO QUE. ATTM...TIMING OF SFC FROPA APPEARS TOO
VARIABLE/UNCERTAIN IN PROGS...AND PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY TOO
LIMITED...TO JUSTIFY 30% RISK AREA 4 DAYS OUT. FOLLOWING
THAT...MEAN/LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED OVER GREAT LAKES/MS
VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION BY SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES.
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE WILL INFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND
MOISTURE RECOVERY IN WAKE OF DAY 3-4 COLD FROPA OFF ATLC COAST.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE DISPLACED TOO
FAR E AND SE OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SVR EVENT
IN ERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE...SFC RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY REACH SWRN RIM OF STRONGER
NW FLOW ALOFT DAY-5/20TH-21ST...OVER PORTIONS KS/OK. WHILE STG-SVR
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 160730
SWODY3
SPC AC 160729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NY TO SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AND WILL OCCUR IN
EARNEST DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER FAR W TX AND NRN CHIHUAHUA
WILL PHASE WITH NRN-STREAM TROUGH...AMIDST BROAD REGIME OF HEIGHT
FALLS. BY START OF PERIOD...FULL-LATITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS LS AND MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT EWD TO LH...OH...TN VALLEY REGION AND N-CENTRAL GULF BY
19/12Z. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY FROM SERN IA/NRN MO REGION ACROSS SRN IL TO ERN OH/WRN
PA.
PRECEDING THAT PERTURBATION...STG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PERIOD
OVER PORTIONS OH...MID-ERN TN...AL AND NWRN GULF...REACHING WRN
NY...WRN PA...WV...WRN GA AND CENTRAL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 19/00Z.
BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN QUE ACROSS COASTAL
MID-ATLC OR SRN NEW ENGLAND...SSWWD TO NRN FL. UNCERTAINTIES IN
FRONTAL SPEED GROW WITH TIME AFTER MIDDLE OF PERIOD...IN STEP WITH
GREATER SPREAD IN PROGS REGARDING EJECTION PHASE SPEED OF MAIN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE.
...NY TO SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGIONS...
CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA FROM MORNING THROUGH AFTN AND AT LEAST INTO
MID-LATE EVENING.
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NEAR ATLC COAST. MEANWHILE...DEEP
SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING GENERALLY WILL BE GREATER WITH NWD
EXTENT...AND WILL SPREAD OVER MORE OF WARM SECTOR WITH TIME.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS
REGION EWD INTO MID-ATLC. FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST
INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPE FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND REMAINING BELOW 1000
J/KG MUCH OF PERIOD...AND BELOW 500 J/KG EARLY IN PERIOD AND FROM
PA/SRN NY NWD. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK CINH AND STG FRONTAL
FORCING SHOULD YIELD NARROW...PROBABLY LOW-TOPPED BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS INTERIOR MID-ATLC. THOUGH TIMING OF ITS COASTAL
APCH WILL BE AFTER DARK...CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL THETAE...AND MAY BE SUSTAINED AT SVR LEVELS INTO SOME OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR MAY BE PRESENCE OF BAND OR CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD...RELATED TO INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BELT OVER PORTIONS WRN VA/NC...ERN TN AND/OR
NRN GA. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WOULD OCCUR ATOP
RESIDUAL REGIME OF COOL/DAMMING AIR...STG LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
WILL ERODE THAT REGIME WITH TIME AHEAD OF TSTMS. CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT NEWD FROM THOSE AREAS INTO AT LEAST MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CAROLINAS/VA...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE MOIST/DIABATICALLY HEATED AIR MASS OVER PARTS
OF SC/GA. TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SRN/WRN PORTION OF SVR THREAT
THEREFORE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ARE DRAWN OVER PORTIONS CAROLINAS/GA
IN DEFERENCE TO FCST OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND DEEP SPEED
SHEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 160729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NY TO SRN
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY AND WILL OCCUR IN
EARNEST DAY-2. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER FAR W TX AND NRN CHIHUAHUA
WILL PHASE WITH NRN-STREAM TROUGH...AMIDST BROAD REGIME OF HEIGHT
FALLS. BY START OF PERIOD...FULL-LATITUDE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS LS AND MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT EWD TO LH...OH...TN VALLEY REGION AND N-CENTRAL GULF BY
19/12Z. STRONGEST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY FROM SERN IA/NRN MO REGION ACROSS SRN IL TO ERN OH/WRN
PA.
PRECEDING THAT PERTURBATION...STG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN PERIOD
OVER PORTIONS OH...MID-ERN TN...AL AND NWRN GULF...REACHING WRN
NY...WRN PA...WV...WRN GA AND CENTRAL/WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 19/00Z.
BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN QUE ACROSS COASTAL
MID-ATLC OR SRN NEW ENGLAND...SSWWD TO NRN FL. UNCERTAINTIES IN
FRONTAL SPEED GROW WITH TIME AFTER MIDDLE OF PERIOD...IN STEP WITH
GREATER SPREAD IN PROGS REGARDING EJECTION PHASE SPEED OF MAIN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE.
...NY TO SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT REGIONS...
CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA FROM MORNING THROUGH AFTN AND AT LEAST INTO
MID-LATE EVENING.
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NEAR ATLC COAST. MEANWHILE...DEEP
SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING GENERALLY WILL BE GREATER WITH NWD
EXTENT...AND WILL SPREAD OVER MORE OF WARM SECTOR WITH TIME.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS
REGION EWD INTO MID-ATLC. FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST
INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPE FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND REMAINING BELOW 1000
J/KG MUCH OF PERIOD...AND BELOW 500 J/KG EARLY IN PERIOD AND FROM
PA/SRN NY NWD. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK CINH AND STG FRONTAL
FORCING SHOULD YIELD NARROW...PROBABLY LOW-TOPPED BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING EWD ACROSS INTERIOR MID-ATLC. THOUGH TIMING OF ITS COASTAL
APCH WILL BE AFTER DARK...CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL THETAE...AND MAY BE SUSTAINED AT SVR LEVELS INTO SOME OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR MAY BE PRESENCE OF BAND OR CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD...RELATED TO INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT BELT OVER PORTIONS WRN VA/NC...ERN TN AND/OR
NRN GA. WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WOULD OCCUR ATOP
RESIDUAL REGIME OF COOL/DAMMING AIR...STG LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
WILL ERODE THAT REGIME WITH TIME AHEAD OF TSTMS. CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT NEWD FROM THOSE AREAS INTO AT LEAST MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER
INSTABILITY ACROSS CAROLINAS/VA...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE MOIST/DIABATICALLY HEATED AIR MASS OVER PARTS
OF SC/GA. TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SRN/WRN PORTION OF SVR THREAT
THEREFORE IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ARE DRAWN OVER PORTIONS CAROLINAS/GA
IN DEFERENCE TO FCST OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND DEEP SPEED
SHEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO BEGIN SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION DURING
PERIOD...RELATED IN PART TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER
PORTIONS SK/AB. WHILE ERN PORTION OF RELATED VORTICITY FIELD BREAKS
EWD TOWARD SRN HUDSON BAY...WRN PORTION WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN
PLAINS DAY-1. BY 17/12Z...EXPECT STRENGTHENING TROUGH FROM NWRN ONT
SWWD ACROSS SD TO WRN NEB. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER AND
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS POSITIVELY TILTED WITH TIME -- REACHING
CENTRAL/ERN MN...WRN IA AND ERN/SRN NEB. BY 18/00Z...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN/CENTRAL LS SSWWD ACROSS MO...PART OF
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGHING REGIME FROM HUDSON BAY TO NWRN GULF.
SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER W TX...EXTREME SERN NM AND CHIHUAHUA...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF TX DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2...REACHING SE TX/SWRN LA AREA BY
18/00Z. PHASE-SPEED AND AMPLITUDE PROGS FOR THIS SYSTEM BECOME MORE
DISPARATE AFTER ABOUT 17/18Z...RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN INFLUENTIAL
NRN-STREAM AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS. BY 18/12Z...THIS FEATURE
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING...SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL/ERN LA TO AL.
AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17/12Z INVOF NERN WI OR
ERN UPPER MI...MOVING EWD ACROSS NECK OF ONT THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. TRAILING/STRENGTHENING STG COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SWEEP
SEWD/SWD ACROSS UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH
PERIOD...REACHING WRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL IL...SWRN MO...SWRN OK AND
SERN NM BY 18/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD REACH
OH...MIDDLE-ERN TN...AL AND NWRN GULF.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO MO AND OK...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...FORMING BKN BAND FROM PORTIONS NRN LM/ERN
UPPER MI/NRN LOWER MI REGION SWWD ACROSS MO. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS AND AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WITH SFC DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F -- WILL OFFSET MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENOUGH TO YIELD PEAK AFTERNOON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE LACK OF BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...EACH RELATED TO PRESENCE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT REMAINING BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AS
SUCH...ORGANIZATION OF SVR THREAT WILL BE POOR...THOUGH A FEW
STG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW ACROSS PORTIONS
OK DURING AFTERNOON...AND NRN/CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT. A FEW STG GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY AFTN TSTMS
OVER OK THAT HAVE ACCESS TO WELL-MIXED/WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS...BUT
THIS AREA ALSO WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER SFC CONDITIONS AND
WEAKER FRONTAL LIFT THAN FARTHER NE.
...TN VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN PIEDMONT REGIONS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...POTENTIALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. FACTORS
PRECLUDING UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM INCLUDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AMBIGUOUS LOW-LEVEL FOCI...AND PROGS OF WEAK SFC FLOW
MAGNITUDES. COOL-AIR DAMMING REGIME ALSO WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF
PERIOD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 18/00Z
ONWARD...BENEATH PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER WINDS RELATED TO
PHASING OF NRN/SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS. 850-MB WINDS ALSO WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS GA/SC...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ATOP FEEBLE SFC WINDS. CONDITIONAL CONCERN EXISTS FOR
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS WITH LITTLE OR NO LTG.
PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED ONCE PROGS OF MID-UPPER PERTURBATION
AND RELATED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT...AND/OR
LATE-PERIOD MECHANISMS FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE FORCING ARE
BETTER-DEFINED.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 160559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO BEGIN SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION DURING
PERIOD...RELATED IN PART TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER
PORTIONS SK/AB. WHILE ERN PORTION OF RELATED VORTICITY FIELD BREAKS
EWD TOWARD SRN HUDSON BAY...WRN PORTION WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN
PLAINS DAY-1. BY 17/12Z...EXPECT STRENGTHENING TROUGH FROM NWRN ONT
SWWD ACROSS SD TO WRN NEB. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER AND
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS POSITIVELY TILTED WITH TIME -- REACHING
CENTRAL/ERN MN...WRN IA AND ERN/SRN NEB. BY 18/00Z...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN/CENTRAL LS SSWWD ACROSS MO...PART OF
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGHING REGIME FROM HUDSON BAY TO NWRN GULF.
SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER W TX...EXTREME SERN NM AND CHIHUAHUA...SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF TX DAY-1 INTO EARLY DAY-2...REACHING SE TX/SWRN LA AREA BY
18/00Z. PHASE-SPEED AND AMPLITUDE PROGS FOR THIS SYSTEM BECOME MORE
DISPARATE AFTER ABOUT 17/18Z...RELATED TO DIFFERENCES IN INFLUENTIAL
NRN-STREAM AMPLIFICATION AND HEIGHT FALLS. BY 18/12Z...THIS FEATURE
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING...SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL/ERN LA TO AL.
AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 17/12Z INVOF NERN WI OR
ERN UPPER MI...MOVING EWD ACROSS NECK OF ONT THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. TRAILING/STRENGTHENING STG COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SWEEP
SEWD/SWD ACROSS UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH
PERIOD...REACHING WRN LOWER MI...CENTRAL IL...SWRN MO...SWRN OK AND
SERN NM BY 18/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD REACH
OH...MIDDLE-ERN TN...AL AND NWRN GULF.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO MO AND OK...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD
FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...FORMING BKN BAND FROM PORTIONS NRN LM/ERN
UPPER MI/NRN LOWER MI REGION SWWD ACROSS MO. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS AND AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- WITH SFC DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LOW-MID 60S F -- WILL OFFSET MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENOUGH TO YIELD PEAK AFTERNOON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE LACK OF BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...EACH RELATED TO PRESENCE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT REMAINING BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. AS
SUCH...ORGANIZATION OF SVR THREAT WILL BE POOR...THOUGH A FEW
STG/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW ACROSS PORTIONS
OK DURING AFTERNOON...AND NRN/CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND
BEHIND FRONT. A FEW STG GUSTS ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY AFTN TSTMS
OVER OK THAT HAVE ACCESS TO WELL-MIXED/WARM-SECTOR AIR MASS...BUT
THIS AREA ALSO WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER SFC CONDITIONS AND
WEAKER FRONTAL LIFT THAN FARTHER NE.
...TN VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS/SRN PIEDMONT REGIONS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
PERIOD...POTENTIALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. FACTORS
PRECLUDING UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM INCLUDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AMBIGUOUS LOW-LEVEL FOCI...AND PROGS OF WEAK SFC FLOW
MAGNITUDES. COOL-AIR DAMMING REGIME ALSO WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF
PERIOD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT 18/00Z
ONWARD...BENEATH PLUME OF STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER WINDS RELATED TO
PHASING OF NRN/SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS. 850-MB WINDS ALSO WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS GA/SC...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ATOP FEEBLE SFC WINDS. CONDITIONAL CONCERN EXISTS FOR
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS WITH LITTLE OR NO LTG.
PROBABILITIES MAY BE INTRODUCED ONCE PROGS OF MID-UPPER PERTURBATION
AND RELATED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT...AND/OR
LATE-PERIOD MECHANISMS FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE FORCING ARE
BETTER-DEFINED.
..EDWARDS.. 09/16/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 160553
SWODY1
SPC AC 160551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD...AS A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DIGS SEWD INTO THE N
CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PROGRESS SEWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER MI/NERN WI SWWD
INTO SWRN KS AND THE ADJACENT OK/TX PANHANDLES BY 17/12Z. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSING TX
WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...UPPER MI WSWWD INTO E CENTRAL/SERN SD...
WITH WARM-SECTOR CAPPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. HERE...WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
EXPECTED...ANY HAIL WITH THE POST-FRONTAL/ELEVATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
STILL...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AN ISOLATED
STRONGER GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR WIND IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY COVERING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/16/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 160551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD...AS A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DIGS SEWD INTO THE N
CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PROGRESS SEWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER MI/NERN WI SWWD
INTO SWRN KS AND THE ADJACENT OK/TX PANHANDLES BY 17/12Z. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSING TX
WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...UPPER MI WSWWD INTO E CENTRAL/SERN SD...
WITH WARM-SECTOR CAPPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. HERE...WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
EXPECTED...ANY HAIL WITH THE POST-FRONTAL/ELEVATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
STILL...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AN ISOLATED
STRONGER GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR WIND IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY COVERING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 09/16/2012
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KSGX [160439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS56 KSGX 160439
LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
939 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
09/15/2012 E95.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 11 INJ *** 11 HEAT RELATED INJURIES REQUIRING
HOSPITALIZATION BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM PDT AT A RUN IN THE
VICINITY OF BALBOA PARK. TEMPS RANGED BETWEEN 92 AND 99
DEGREES.
0935 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N RANCHO BERNARDO 33.05N 117.06W
09/15/2012 E93.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 1 INJ *** 45 YEAR OLD WOMAN APPARENTLY SUFFERED HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND WAS AIRLIFTED FORM A HIKING TRAIL NEAR
LAKE HODGES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE IN THE 90S AT
THE TIME.
&&
$$
JDANDR
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LSRSGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
939 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
09/15/2012 E95.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 11 INJ *** 11 HEAT RELATED INJURIES REQUIRING
HOSPITALIZATION BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM PDT AT A RUN IN THE
VICINITY OF BALBOA PARK. TEMPS RANGED BETWEEN 92 AND 99
DEGREES.
0935 AM EXCESSIVE HEAT 2 N RANCHO BERNARDO 33.05N 117.06W
09/15/2012 E93.00 F SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA
*** 1 INJ *** 45 YEAR OLD WOMAN APPARENTLY SUFFERED HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND WAS AIRLIFTED FORM A HIKING TRAIL NEAR
LAKE HODGES. TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA WERE IN THE 90S AT
THE TIME.
&&
$$
JDANDR
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