DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161707
SWODY2
SPC AC 161706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INTO CNTRL MO BY 21Z WITH LOW QUALITY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NWD.

TO THE S...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING WIND PROFILES WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT FROM LA INTO AL. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS BY TUE MORNING FROM THE
CNTRL GULF NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI AND WRN LOWER MI...
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON FROM MO INTO SERN
WI. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME CAPPING POTENTIAL AROUND 700 MB DUE TO
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. THUS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE FRONT...IN WHICH CASE A MIXED STORM MODE COULD
OCCUR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR HAIL WITH SUFFICIENT
FLOW TO RESULT IN FAST STORM MOTIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE
THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL GIVEN A LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO AL BY 12Z TUE ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WILL
INCREASE...AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
INDICATE THAT SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS OR EMBEDDED IN
AREAS OF PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME FOR ANY SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..JEWELL.. 09/16/2012

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