Georgia-Florida SKYWARN: 09/14/10

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

KTFX [142343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 142343
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
543 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST 1 ENE BELGRADE 45.78N 111.16W
09/14/2010 M43 MPH GALLATIN MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

43 MPH WIND GUST AT THE BOZEMAN AIRPORT.

BRUSDA

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KTFX [142342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 142342
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
542 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL 12 ENE RINGLING 46.34N 110.57W
09/14/2010 E0.25 INCH MEAGHER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL FALLING 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF RINGLING.

BRUSDA

WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 660

WWUS20 KWNS 142326
SEL0
SPC WW 142326
NEZ000-SDZ000-150700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 100 AM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MULLEN NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ONEILL NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCTD AREAS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENE ACROSS
WW AREA THOUGH EARLY WED AS WAA AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN WY/NRN CO UPR IMPULSE. DEEP SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WITH MODERATE STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ CONTRIBUTING
TO ENHANCED LOW LVL SHEAR. INCREASING CIN AFTER SUNSET MAY RESULT
IN MOST STORMS BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. BUT COMBINATION OF FAIRLY
RICH MOISTURE WITH INCREASING ASCENT AND LOW LVL SHEAR ALONG STALLED
FRONT ON THE NEB/SD BORDER SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1828

ACUS11 KWNS 142243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142243
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL SD...WRN/CNTRL NEB...EXTREME NERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142243Z - 150015Z

...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE RISKS THROUGH EVENING...

RECENT INCREASE IN BOTH MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AND SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN CO AND WRN NEB APPEARS TIED TO A SMALL JETLET
MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS
SUGGEST A LATER TIMING TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...RECENT
INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LLVL MOIST AXIS IS
LIKELY THE START OF THE PRIMARY SHOW.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AS THE
LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED WWD...LOWERING OF BASES IS
EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT...ENOUGH
SRH WILL EXIST FOR A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIST FROM THE PANHANDLE OF
NEB ENE ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD
THROUGH MID-EVENING. STORMS MOVING NEWD FROM CO INTO SWRN NEB WILL
POSE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. EVENTUALLY...ONE
OR MORE MCS MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING WHILE MIGRATING EWD INTO
NRN NEB/SD.

..RACY.. 09/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
CYS...

LAT...LON 42140316 43150256 43730145 44070007 43879875 43369799
42589789 42109850 40370106 39880271 41240316 42140316

KSLC [142215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 142215
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND GST 10 S LAKESIDE 41.06N 112.89W
09/14/2010 M59 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

LAKESIDE MOUNTAIN SENSOR

CRK

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1827

ACUS11 KWNS 142208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142208
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-142315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT / SERN ID / SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142208Z - 142315Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN UT EXTENDING N AND E INTO SERN ID AND SWRN WY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOW TEMPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN UT INTO SERN ID DESPITE
ANVIL DEBRIS FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NRN UT. A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
WITHIN THE BASE OF A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND NRN GREAT BASIN REGIONS HAVE FOSTERED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MEASURED WIND
GUSTS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR FROM AREA MESONET SITES HAVE YIELDED
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOCALIZED STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. WITH A BELT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING
FROM ERN NV ENEWD INTO NERN UT AND TAPERING OFF WITH N EXTENT /I.E.
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY/...EXPECTING THE CONTINUED RISK OF ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP.

..SMITH.. 09/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 41121117 40911283 41371366 41581392 42021387 42321293
42931101 42831025 42580999 41990999 41121117

KTFX [142159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 142159
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
359 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL BASIN 46.27N 112.26W
09/14/2010 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING IN THE BASIN AREA.

BRUSDA

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1826

ACUS11 KWNS 142149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142149
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MT / NWRN WY / N-CNTRL ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142149Z - 142245Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F WITHIN POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AHEAD OF
A LOWER AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED /SATELLITE
DERIVED PW LESS THAN 0.75 INCH/...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
UNDERNEATH H5 TEMPS AT -15 DEC C/ WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY DEEP
FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO.

..SMITH.. 09/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON 44111378 44491444 45081417 46321216 46671024 46210934
45530888 44900951 43891293 44111378

KSLC [142140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 142140
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NNE STANSBURY PARK 40.69N 112.26W
09/14/2010 M69 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

LAKE POINT I-80 SENSOR

CRK

KTFX [142128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 142128
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
328 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL BASIN 46.27N 112.26W
09/14/2010 E0.75 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL FALLING IN THE BASIN AREA.

BRUSDA

KAMA [142122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 142122
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N PANHANDLE 35.43N 101.38W
09/13/2010 CARSON TX PUBLIC

NWS IN LUBBOCK RELAYED REPORT FROM MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC
WHO HAD 2 LARGE TREES DOWN 6 MILES NORTH OF PANHANDLE.

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000808

KFWD [142120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction

NWUS54 KFWD 142120 CCA
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SE PARIS 33.59N 95.46W
09/14/2010 M61 MPH LAMAR TX ASOS

THE PARIS ASOS REPORTED A 53 KNOT (61 MPH) WIND GUST AT
405 PM.

KFWD [142117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 142117
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SE PARIS 33.59N 95.46W
09/14/2010 M59 MPH LAMAR TX ASOS

THE PARIS ASOS REPORTED A 51 KNOT (59 MPH) WIND GUST AT
405 PM.

KDMX [142057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 142057
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL 4 S GUTHRIE CENTER 41.62N 94.49W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH GUTHRIE IA PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT.

PODRAZIK

KDMX [142049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 142049
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 S CENTERVILLE 40.62N 92.87W
09/13/2010 APPANOOSE IA PUBLIC

SIGNIFICANT GRAVEL ROAD WASHOUT SOUTH OF CENTERVILLE.
DELAYED REPORT.

PODRAZIK

KSLC [142009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 142009
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
209 PM MDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNE CLIVE 40.76N 113.01W
09/14/2010 M67 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

I-80 AT GRASSEY SENSOR

CRK

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 142001
SWODY1
SPC AC 142000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN OK INTO THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SRN SD...

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES ALONG THE
NEB-SD BORDER THEN SEWD INTO NRN MO. AXIS OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS CONTINUES ADVECTING NWD BENEATH AN
EML. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
NEB INTO SRN SD WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE WARM EML AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED STORMS
OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER NERN CO...
WRN NEB INTO WRN SD AND POSSIBLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD AND
INTERCEPT THE THETA-E AXIS. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF E-W BOUNDARY FROM NRN NEB INTO SRN SD
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL
SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS
OVERNIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP EWD.

SEVERE THREAT IN KS IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO LACK OF AN OBVIOUS
FORCING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK
IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH ERN CO. IF STORMS DEVELOP VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...TX PANHANDLE THROUGH WRN OK...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD THROUGH CNTRL OK AND OTHER SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SERVE AS POTENTIAL FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS...BUT THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 09/14/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTS OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...AND A WEAK SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PAC COAST
AND ROCKIES. WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV
THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND A DOWNSTREAM WAVE OVER MO WILL MOVE ESEWD AND
WEAKEN. THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING GREAT BASIN TROUGH.

...CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD/SEWD
OVER ERN OK ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO AND WAA WITH A SWLY NOCTURNAL LLJ. SINCE
THE MO TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR
TODAY AND THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY...IT APPEARS
THAT THE ONLY FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OK
WILL BE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND E/SE OK. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WITH TIME AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT...ONLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE OK STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

A ZONE OF MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EXTENDS NNWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL KS/NEB TO THE W OF THE OUTFLOW WITH THE ONGOING OK
STORMS...AND S OF WEAK LOW IN S CENTRAL SD. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS /IN ADVANCE OF THE GREAT BASIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH/. BASED ON
MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO
WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS WRN KS/NEB TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARMER EML AND STRONGER CAP RESIDES OVER
KS/NEB...WITH A WEAKER CAP AND RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WRN
OK...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHAT
STORMS DO FORM COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.

STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE AT LEAST WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...THE WARM UPSTREAM EML
MAY ALSO SERVE TO INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS
FORM...SUPERCELLS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE FOR CONVECTION TO INCREASE TONIGHT
ACROSS NEB/SD AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 35-45
KT LLJ...AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE GREAT BASIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ACROSS SD/NEB...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS.

KTOP [141926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 141926
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM HAIL AURORA 39.45N 97.53W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH CLOUD KS PUBLIC

RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

KLCH [141837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 141837
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM WATER SPOUT 4 SE PORT ARTHUR 29.86N 93.89W
09/12/2010 GMZ430 LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS WATERSPOUT OVER SABINE LAKE.

MGRIFFIN

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141729
SWODY2
SPC AC 141728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN
REGIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING ESEWD THROUGH
THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER CRESTING UPPER
RIDGE. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EAST
OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...

MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES...MLCAPE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A SWLY 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ZONE OF
DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING AND A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
SUGGEST MORNING STORMS COULD CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP
SEWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH DOMINANT
LINEAR MODES MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 09/14/2010

KBOX [141705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 141705
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM HAIL ATHOL 42.59N 72.23W
09/13/2010 M0.88 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL HAIL ON WHITE POND ROAD

0516 PM HAIL PETERSHAM 42.48N 72.18W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL RANGING IN SIZE FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
LASTED FOR 8 MINUTES FROM APPROXIMATELY 516-524 PM ON
EAST ST., ROUTE 122, AND ROUTE 101. HAIL WAS PLOWABLE IN
SPOTS...UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP. SOME DAMAGE REPORTED TO
ROOFS AND A FEW DENTED CARS. HAIL WAS PRESENT 14 HOURS
AFTER THE EVENT.

0537 PM TSTM WND GST GOFFSTOWN 43.02N 71.60W
09/13/2010 E0.00 MPH HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND SOME WIRES DOWN TEMPORARILY CLOSING PARKER
ROAD.

0537 PM HAIL NEW BOSTON 42.97N 71.68W
09/13/2010 M0.75 INCH HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND TO 1 INCH DEPTH ON ROUTE 114

0537 PM HAIL WEARE 43.10N 71.73W
09/13/2010 M0.75 INCH HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND TO 1 INCH DEPTH ON MOUNT WILLIAM
ROAD AND ROUTE 114

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG HUBBARDSTON 42.48N 72.02W
09/13/2010 WORCESTER MA PUBLIC

4 TELEPHONE POLES KNOCKED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF
ROUTE 68 AND ROUTE 62

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG HUBBARDSTON 42.48N 72.02W
09/13/2010 WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 68

0559 PM HAIL RUTLAND 42.36N 71.95W
09/13/2010 M1.00 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

0610 PM HAIL HOLDEN 42.35N 71.85W
09/13/2010 M0.50 INCH WORCESTER MA TRAINED SPOTTER

0616 PM HAIL BEDFORD 42.95N 71.50W
09/13/2010 M0.75 INCH HILLSBOROUGH NH TRAINED SPOTTER

0618 PM HAIL PAXTON 42.32N 71.93W
09/13/2010 M1.00 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON SOUTH ROAD

0621 PM HAIL WORCESTER 42.27N 71.81W
09/13/2010 M1.00 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

KJC/GAF

KCHS [141629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 141629
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1228 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SE CLAXTON 32.11N 81.85W
09/11/2010 EVANS GA EMERGENCY MNGR

EVANS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONDUCTED A DAMAGE
SURVEY FOR THIS EVENT AND DETERMINED THE DAMAGE TO BE
CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM A THUNDERSTORM
DOWNBURST. AN OLD BARN WAS BLOWN OVER ALONG WITH SEVERAL
3 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES FROM PECAN TREES. ALL
DAMAGE WAS LAID DOWN IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THE DAMAGE
OBSERVED WAS CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 65 MPH.
SEVERAL TREES WERE ALSO REPORTED DOWN IN SPORADIC
LOCATIONS WITHIN 1 MILE OF THIS LOCATION.

DPB

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141622
SWODY1
SPC AC 141621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 09/14/2010

KBGM [141609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 141609
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1209 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL BRACKNEY 41.98N 75.92W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0148 PM HAIL OTEGO 42.39N 75.18W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH OTSEGO NY PUBLIC

0150 PM HAIL 4 SE SPENCER 42.17N 76.44W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HALSEY VALLEY ROAD SOUTH
OF SPENCER.

0153 PM HAIL FRANKLIN 42.34N 75.17W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

HAIL SIZE FROM 3/8 TO 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER

0201 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0207 PM HAIL OWEGO 42.10N 76.26W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS DIME SIZED HAIL

0210 PM HAIL DELHI 42.28N 74.91W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 M1.25 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.73W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0215 PM HAIL 5 W NEW MILFORD 41.88N 75.82W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0218 PM HAIL APALACHIN 42.07N 76.17W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH TIOGA NY PUBLIC

0232 PM HAIL GIBSON 41.80N 75.65W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

0232 PM HAIL ANDES 42.19N 74.78W
09/13/2010 E1.25 INCH DELAWARE NY PUBLIC

0236 PM HAIL THOMPSON 41.86N 75.51W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA AMATEUR RADIO

0250 PM HAIL 4 SSW RUSH 41.73N 76.09W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

BLUEBERRY HAVEN GROCERY STORE REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL
THAT LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES AND IS COVERING THE GROUND.

0300 PM HAIL GREELEY 41.42N 75.00W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH PIKE PA PUBLIC

0319 PM HAIL HONESDALE 41.58N 75.25W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH WAYNE PA PUBLIC

0335 PM HAIL SCRANTON 41.40N 75.67W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

0336 PM HAIL CLARKS SUMMIT 41.49N 75.71W
09/13/2010 E1.50 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

REPORT WAS FOR 10 MINUTES OF WALNUT SIZED HAIL

0339 PM HAIL HONESDALE 41.58N 75.25W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH WAYNE PA PUBLIC

0340 PM HAIL HAWLEY 41.48N 75.18W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH WAYNE PA PUBLIC

0350 PM HAIL 1 N SCRANTON 41.42N 75.67W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

0353 PM HAIL SCRANTON 41.40N 75.67W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH LACKAWANNA PA PUBLIC

0403 PM HAIL 2 SSW SPRINGVILLE 41.66N 75.94W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA PUBLIC

SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL AT SHELDON
HILL TREE FARM. THE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

0414 PM HAIL 2 W MILFORD 41.32N 74.84W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH PIKE PA PUBLIC

0414 PM HAIL 2 W MILFORD 41.32N 74.84W
09/13/2010 E1.25 INCH PIKE PA PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL 3 SSW WILKES-BARRE TOWN 41.21N 75.90W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH LUZERNE PA POST OFFICE

REPORTED AT THE US POST OFFICE ON NORTH MAIN STREET IN
ASHLEY. HAIL LASTED BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MINUTES.

HEDEN

KBUF [141506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBUF 141506
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 2 N GREECE 43.24N 77.70W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0200 PM HAIL NORTH GREECE 43.25N 77.73W
09/13/2010 E0.50 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0208 PM HAIL 5 NNW BRIGHTON 43.19N 77.61W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0208 PM HAIL 5 N BRIGHTON 43.19N 77.60W
09/13/2010 E0.50 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0208 PM HAIL 5 N BRIGHTON 43.19N 77.59W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0208 PM HAIL 5 NNW BRIGHTON 43.19N 77.61W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

0208 PM HAIL 5 N BRIGHTON 43.20N 77.60W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH MONROE NY PUBLIC

ZAFF

KDMX [141457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 141457
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
957 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0346 PM HAIL GUTHRIE CENTER 41.68N 94.50W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH GUTHRIE IA PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT GAS STATION IN GUTHRIE CENTER...TIME
ETIMATED FROM RADAR

0347 PM HAIL 2 SSE GUTHRIE CENTER 41.65N 94.48W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH GUTHRIE IA PUBLIC

QUARTER HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN...TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

KLCH [141417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 141417
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
917 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FUNNEL CLOUD ENE BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
09/12/2010 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KBMT-TV REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WEST OF DOWNTOWN
BEAUMONT.

MGRIFFIN

KPHI [141330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 141330
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL MONTAGUE 41.30N 74.78W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SUSSEX NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL IN MONTAGUE.

0505 PM HAIL SSE HARDYSTON TWP 41.10N 74.53W
09/13/2010 M0.25 INCH SUSSEX NJ MESONET

HAIL 1/4 TO 3/8 IN DIAMETER. COVERED HALF THE GROUND.
FROM COCORAHS.

0505 PM HAIL SPARTA TWP 41.03N 74.62W
09/13/2010 M0.88 INCH SUSSEX NJ PUBLIC

0518 PM HAIL 2 SW GREEN POND 41.00N 74.50W
09/13/2010 E0.25 INCH MORRIS NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

JEFFERSON TWP

0557 PM HAIL NAZARETH 40.74N 75.31W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM TSTM WND GST KEANSBURG 40.45N 74.13W
09/13/2010 M70.00 MPH MONMOUTH NJ C-MAN STATION

ALSO A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN.

TGIGI/HEAVENER

KTOP [141312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 141312
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
812 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 AM HEAVY RAIN CIRCLEVILLE 39.51N 95.86W
09/14/2010 M1.90 INCH JACKSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0646 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW BEATTIE 39.84N 96.52W
09/14/2010 M2.90 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW GOFF 39.65N 95.98W
09/14/2010 M2.13 INCH NEMAHA KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W CONCORDIA 39.57N 97.68W
09/14/2010 M2.07 INCH CLOUD KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN LILLIS 39.61N 96.30W
09/14/2010 M2.13 INCH MARSHALL KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0702 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S BLUE RAPIDS 39.67N 96.66W
09/14/2010 M4.00 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW EMPORIA 38.43N 96.22W
09/14/2010 M2.15 INCH LYON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN GRIDLEY 38.10N 95.88W
09/14/2010 M2.10 INCH COFFEY KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 ESE HIAWATHA 39.80N 95.38W
09/14/2010 M1.95 INCH BROWN KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN CHAPMAN 38.97N 97.02W
09/14/2010 M1.50 INCH DICKINSON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN NEOSHO RAPIDS 38.37N 95.99W
09/14/2010 M1.73 INCH LYON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN TESCOTT 39.01N 97.88W
09/14/2010 M1.90 INCH OTTAWA KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN WILSEY 38.64N 96.68W
09/14/2010 M1.76 INCH MORRIS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN MARYSVILLE 39.84N 96.65W
09/14/2010 M3.45 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 AM HEAVY RAIN COURTLAND 39.78N 97.89W
09/14/2010 M1.60 INCH REPUBLIC KS CO-OP OBSERVER

MRC

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141239
SWODY1
SPC AC 141238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
TODAY...WHILE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN STATES. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREE THAT FORCING MECHANISMS OVER THE ROCKIES ARE WEAK AND
HARD TO IDENTIFY /SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/. NEVERTHELESS...THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH FULL
SUNSHINE AND 30-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORM STRUCTURES WHEN/WHERE DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AXIS FROM WESTERN SD INTO
WESTERN KS. STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SD/NEB/KS
OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF MT/ID AS
HEATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

OTHER STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK. STRONG HEATING AND WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER BOUT OF LOCALLY
INTENSE STORMS TODAY.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/14/2010

KDVN [141112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 141112
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0611 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S ARBELA 40.43N 92.02W
09/14/2010 M1.50 INCH SCOTLAND MO TRAINED SPOTTER

BILLN

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140856
SWOD48
SPC AC 140855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
AN ENHANCED BELT OF ZONAL/WLY FLOW EVOLVING N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/ACTIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

WITH TIME...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL WITH GRADUAL
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CONUS. LITTLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT THROUGH
DAY 6 /SUN. 9-19/...AFTER WHICH MODELS BEGIN DIFFERING AS MORE SWLY
FLOW ALOFT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH. THIS FASTER SWLY FLOW ALOFT -- AND
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED FEATURES DRIVING LEE CYCLOGENESIS -- COULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT ATTM
UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY ATTEMPT AT DELINEATING
POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT AREAS.

..GOSS.. 09/14/2010

KICT [140843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 140843
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1059 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E LUCAS 39.06N 98.50W
09/13/2010 E50.00 MPH RUSSELL KS PUBLIC

1130 PM TSTM WND GST BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
09/13/2010 E60.00 MPH LINCOLN KS PUBLIC

1133 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W GLENDALE 38.90N 97.98W
09/13/2010 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TRUCK TRAILERS BLOWN OVER NEAR
MILE MARKER 229 ON I-70.

1147 PM HAIL 10 NW SALINA 38.92N 97.75W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1156 PM TSTM WND GST 9 WNW SALINA 38.89N 97.76W
09/13/2010 M50.00 MPH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1204 AM TSTM WND GST SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
09/14/2010 M61.00 MPH SALINE KS ASOS

1215 AM TSTM WND GST SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
09/14/2010 E60.00 MPH SALINE KS PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

EPS

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 659

WWUS20 KWNS 140823
SEL9
SPC WW 140823
KSZ000-NEZ000-141000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
323 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 659 ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
NEBRASKA

KGID [140817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 140817
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
317 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0311 PM HAIL ALEXANDRIA 40.25N 97.39W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH THAYER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM HAIL 1 N LONG ISLAND 39.96N 99.53W
09/13/2010 M1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES

0530 PM HAIL 3 SW LONG ISLAND 39.92N 99.57W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED IN THE SAME LOCATION

0538 PM HAIL 5 S BLADEN 40.25N 98.60W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

0545 PM HAIL 4 SW BLUE HILL 40.29N 98.50W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH WEBSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0553 PM HAIL 3 W BLUE HILL 40.33N 98.50W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0554 PM HAIL BLUE HILL 40.33N 98.45W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0609 PM HAIL AYR 40.44N 98.44W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH ADAMS NE EMERGENCY MNGR

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0614 PM HAIL 5 ESE AYR 40.41N 98.35W
09/13/2010 E1.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR PAULINE

0616 PM HAIL 5 E AYR 40.44N 98.35W
09/13/2010 E1.75 INCH ADAMS NE PUBLIC

HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY
74 NORTH OF PAULINE

0618 PM HAIL 6 NNE ORLEANS 40.21N 99.41W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH HARLAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH 50 TO 55 MILE PER HOUR WINDS

0624 PM HAIL GLENVIL 40.50N 98.25W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH CLAY NE PUBLIC

0626 PM HAIL 10 S HOLDREGE 40.30N 99.38W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH HARLAN NE EMERGENCY MNGR

0626 PM HAIL 1 SW WILCOX 40.35N 99.18W
09/13/2010 E2.75 INCH PHELPS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

GROUND WAS COVERED WITH HAIL.

0635 PM HAIL 1 W RAGAN 40.31N 99.31W
09/13/2010 E2.75 INCH HARLAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM HAIL WILCOX 40.36N 99.17W
09/13/2010 E2.75 INCH KEARNEY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL

0708 PM HAIL 5 SE AXTELL 40.43N 99.06W
09/13/2010 E1.75 INCH KEARNEY NE PUBLIC

0718 PM HAIL 3 SW HENDERSON 40.75N 97.85W
09/13/2010 E0.75 INCH HAMILTON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM HAIL 6 S MINDEN 40.41N 98.95W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH KEARNEY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM HAIL HENDERSON 40.78N 97.81W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH YORK NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0205 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S OSBORNE 39.42N 98.70W
09/14/2010 M1.32 INCH OSBORNE KS OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED AT RIVER GAGE SITE SOUTH OF TOWN

0315 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S ALEXANDRIA 40.22N 97.39W
09/14/2010 M2.91 INCH THAYER NE OTHER FEDERAL

24-HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 3 AM...MEASURED AT THE RIVER GAGE
SITE SOUTH OF TOWN. UPDATED TOTAL FROM THE PREVIOUS LOCAL
STORM REPORT FOR SAME LOCATION.

NWS

KGID [140816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140816
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S ALEXANDRIA 40.22N 97.39W
09/14/2010 M2.91 INCH THAYER NE OTHER FEDERAL

24-HOUR RAINFALL AS OF 3 AM...MEASURED AT THE RIVER GAGE
SITE SOUTH OF TOWN. UPDATED TOTAL FROM THE PREVIOUS LOCAL
STORM REPORT FOR SAME LOCATION.

NWS

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140729
SWODY3
SPC AC 140728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CONUS.

A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS INTO THE ERN CONUS...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
FOCUS ACTIVE CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DROPS
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THIS
REGION. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR...AMPLE CAPE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

AS STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG/GENERALLY WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING STORMS. THUS -- POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INTRODUCTION OF
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME THREAT MAY LINGER EWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL ELYS EVOLVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AS AIRMASS INVOF THE BOUNDARY DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
CONVECTIVE INCREASE NEAR AND JUST N OF THE FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE BACKGROUND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ATTM...A FEW
ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO EVOLVING -- AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SLIGHT RISK -- IS LOW ATTM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
POTENTIAL ATTM.

..GOSS.. 09/14/2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1825

ACUS11 KWNS 140711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140710
KSZ000-NEZ000-140915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN KS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659...

VALID 140710Z - 140915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659
CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT REMAINDER WW CAN BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 10Z TIME...OR CANCELED BEFOREHAND AS
CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT.

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION -- MOVING SEWD ABOUT 25-30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
MCPHERSON/MORRIS/MARION/CHASE COUNTIES AS OF 645Z -- PRODUCED 53 KT
GUST AT SLN AT 501Z. AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD WITH THIS
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL REGIME...SOME STG-SVR GUST POTENTIAL MAY
LINGER WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT...DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES OF ORGANIZED SVR ACROSS PROSPECTIVE PATH CORRIDOR FROM
EMP SEWD. ELEVATED TSTMS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATOP
COLD POOL BETWEEN CNK-HDE...NORMAL TO INFLOW-LAYER WIND AND ALONG
NRN EDGE OF ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MRGL HAIL
AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS NRN KS.

ALSO...AS LLJ VEERS/WEAKENS...ABSOLUTE VALUES OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WAA SHOULD DO LIKEWISE. HOWEVER...SPATIAL EMPHASIS OF
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SHIFT
EWD TO SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN KS AND SRN MO. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING OVER THOSE AREAS...AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF REMAINDER OF PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC COOLING IN RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE
BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMPARED TO FARTHER W -- WILL RENDER IT MORE
STABLE. INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...WITH SHALLOWER BUOYANT LAYER. THEREFORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS MRGL/DISORGANIZED AND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38419792 38559752 38769748 39029767 39339796 40049853
40189827 39929611 39049479 38169469 37619483 37229596
38029765 38419792

KGID [140709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140709
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
209 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S ALEXANDRIA 40.22N 97.39W
09/14/2010 M1.62 INCH THAYER NE OTHER FEDERAL

RAINFALL MEASURED AT RIVER GAGE SOUTH OF TOWN

0205 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S OSBORNE 39.42N 98.70W
09/14/2010 M1.32 INCH OSBORNE KS OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED AT RIVER GAGE SITE SOUTH OF TOWN

NWS

KICT [140604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140604
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
104 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 AM TSTM WND GST SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
09/14/2010 E60 MPH SALINE KS PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

DUNTEN

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140601
SWODY1
SPC AC 140600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITHIN THIS REGIME...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAX...OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
A STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...AND REACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
A COMPLEX OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
AUGMENT/SOUTHWARD SHUNT THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS AND THE LOWER MO VALLEY. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW THIS
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT LATER DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
WHAT MAY BE RELATIVELY MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE VIA SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT/WANING INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION.
NONETHELESS...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST DURING THE DAY ON THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THESE EARLY DAY STORMS AND/OR IN VICINITY OF
THE OUTFLOW AUGMENTED FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE A MOIST/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL OTHERWISE EXIST ACROSS KS INTO NEB.

FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND NORTH/NORTHWEST
TX. WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLIES STEADILY DECREASING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT...OVERALL ORGANIZATION/INDIVIDUAL STORM SUSTENANCE SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL NONETHELESS BE
CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.

OTHERWISE...AIDED BY THE ONSET OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
/ESPECIALLY THE/ EVENING HOURS. THIS INCLUDES WHAT MAY BE AN
EFFECTIVE TRIPLE POINT/SURFACE LOW VICINITY ACROSS WESTERN
KS...NORTHWESTWARD IN A CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCLUDING WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/SD AND PROBABLY EASTERN
WY/SOUTHEAST MT. STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT /WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/ COUPLED WITH A HIGH PLAINS-RETREATING MOIST AXIS WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING /WHICH SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
HAZARD/. AIDED BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO GROW UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING/LATE
NIGHT HOURS WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE CINH MAY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE...
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT/MODEST BUOYANCY MAY YIELD ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE TSTMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ID/SOUTHERN MT.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 09/14/2010

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140551
SWODY2
SPC AC 140550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND
VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE -- NEARLY ZONAL -- FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...A PRONOUNCED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE FLAT MEAN
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
FEATURE WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
REGION...WITH THE LOW PROGGED TO SHIFT ENEWD TO THE IL VICINITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW -- AND ASSOCIATED SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT --
WILL FOCUS THE MAIN AREA OF ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.

...MID MO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS EWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HELPS TO
MAINTAIN A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE MID MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD WITH TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...EXPECT
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR INVOF THE LOW...AND ALONG THE
STRENGTHENING/SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF NEB AND
INTO/ACROSS KS WITH TIME.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...SHEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE/SUPERCELLS STORMS...AS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS INVOF
THE SURFACE LOW VEER/INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TO WLY AT 40 TO 50 KT AT
H5 AS THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION. ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL EVOLVE --
PARTICULARLY INVOF ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO WHERE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO RESIDE -- WITHIN THE BROADER AREAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO
THE IL VICINITY...THE SEWD-SURGING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INCREASINGLY-LINEAR CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE
REDEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FAVOR AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THOUGH DIURNALLY-DECREASING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SLOW WANE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

..GOSS.. 09/14/2010

KICT [140527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140527
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 W GLENDALE 38.90N 97.98W
09/13/2010 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TRUCK TRAILERS BLOWN OVER NEAR
MILE MARKER 229 ON I-70.

DUNTEN

KICT [140510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140510
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1209 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1147 PM HAIL 10 NW SALINA 38.92N 97.75W
09/13/2010 E1.00 INCH SALINE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DUNTEN

KICT [140505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140505
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 AM TSTM WND GST SALINA 38.82N 97.62W
09/14/2010 M61.00 MPH SALINE KS ASOS

BDK

KICT [140456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 140456
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1156 PM TSTM WND GST 9 WNW SALINA 38.89N 97.76W
09/13/2010 M50 MPH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LFW

KTOP [140448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 140448
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SSE TESCOTT 38.98N 97.85W
09/13/2010 E60 MPH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL

BLAIR

KBGM [140448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBGM 140448
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010