SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142243
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SCNTRL SD...WRN/CNTRL NEB...EXTREME NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142243Z - 150015Z
...INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE RISKS THROUGH EVENING...
RECENT INCREASE IN BOTH MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AND SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN CO AND WRN NEB APPEARS TIED TO A SMALL JETLET
MIGRATING EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SHORT-TERM MODELS
SUGGEST A LATER TIMING TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS EVENING...RECENT
INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE LLVL MOIST AXIS IS
LIKELY THE START OF THE PRIMARY SHOW.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT AS THE
LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED WWD...LOWERING OF BASES IS
EXPECTED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT...ENOUGH
SRH WILL EXIST FOR A RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD EXIST FROM THE PANHANDLE OF
NEB ENE ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO SWRN/SCNTRL SD
THROUGH MID-EVENING. STORMS MOVING NEWD FROM CO INTO SWRN NEB WILL
POSE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. EVENTUALLY...ONE
OR MORE MCS MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING WHILE MIGRATING EWD INTO
NRN NEB/SD.
..RACY.. 09/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
CYS...
LAT...LON 42140316 43150256 43730145 44070007 43879875 43369799
42589789 42109850 40370106 39880271 41240316 42140316
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