KEWX [160329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160329
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 W HUNT 30.07N 99.40W
04/15/2010 KERR TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

2 PERSONS IN WATER AT CAMP WALDIMOR OFF HWY1340

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000125

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [160239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160239
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
939 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW HUNT 30.06N 99.35W
04/15/2010 KERR TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

VEHICLE WASHED OFF HWY 39 JUST SOUTHWEST OF HUNT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000124

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [160216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160216
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W HUNT 30.07N 99.42W
04/15/2010 KERR TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HWY 1340 WEST OF HUNT UPPER GUADALUPE CLOSED FOR WATER
OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000123

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [160136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 160136
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
736 PM MDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM HEAVY RAIN GRAINFIELD 39.11N 100.47W
04/15/2010 M0.88 INCH GOVE KS CO-OP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER AND LOCAL MESONET OBSERVATION BOTH REPORTED
0.88 OF RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES.

&&

$$

JRM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [160131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160131
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
831 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SSE VANDERPOOL 29.71N 99.54W
04/15/2010 BANDERA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 187 SOUTH OF VANDERPOOL CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000122

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGID [160127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 160127
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
826 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0819 PM FLASH FLOOD PLAINVILLE 39.23N 99.30W
04/15/2010 ROOKS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER HAS FLOODED OVER CURBS ACROSS TOWN.WATER MAKING ITS
WAY INTO SOME SHOPS AND STORES IN TOWN.

&&

$$

HEINLEIN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCRP [160126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 160126
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
824 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM FLASH FLOOD FREER 27.88N 98.62W
04/15/2010 DUVAL TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

DUE TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAIN, HWY 16 WILL BE CLOSED
FROM HEBBRONVILLE TO FREER UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

CB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [160119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 160119
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
719 PM MDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0718 PM HEAVY RAIN SAINT PETER 39.19N 100.09W
04/15/2010 M2.25 INCH GRAHAM KS PUBLIC

RAINFALL HAS OCCURED BETWEEN 2345Z-115Z

&&

$$

JRM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KHNX [160108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 160108
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
607 PM PDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E TAFT 35.14N 119.44W
04/11/2010 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** WIND FLIPPED OVER SMALL AIRPLANE DURING
TAKEOFF AT TAFT AIRPORT AND PILOT SUSTAINED MINOR
INJURIES.

1243 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAPEVINE 34.94N 118.93W
04/11/2010 M53.00 MPH KERN CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NUMERSOUS SOUTH GUSTS 40+ DURING THE AFTERNOON.

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NW MERCED 37.38N 120.59W
04/11/2010 M46.00 MPH MERCED CA ASOS

CASTLE AIRPORT

1253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MERCED 37.30N 120.48W
04/11/2010 M35.00 MPH MERCED CA ASOS

0108 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
04/11/2010 M46.00 MPH KERN CA ASOS

NUMEROUS GUSTS 40+ THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

0131 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HURON 36.20N 120.10W
04/11/2010 M37.00 MPH FRESNO CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

POST FRONTAL WEST WIND

0131 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SAN LUIS NATIONAL WILDL 37.18N 120.79W
04/11/2010 M35.00 MPH MERCED CA MESONET

0137 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PANOCHE ROAD 36.73N 120.48W
04/11/2010 M50.00 MPH FRESNO CA MESONET

RAWS WEST OF I-5 AT 2000 FOOT ELEVATION.

0138 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BUTTONWILLOW 35.40N 119.47W
04/11/2010 M47.00 MPH KERN CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KETTLEMAN HILLS 36.03N 120.06W
04/11/2010 M57.00 MPH KINGS CA MESONET

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LAMONT 35.26N 118.91W
04/11/2010 M42.00 MPH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0244 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 7 SW MENDOTA 36.69N 120.47W
04/11/2010 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS HALF OF ROADWAY ON JENSEN AVE
JUST WEST OF WASHOE AVE.

0341 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S PIXLEY 35.92N 119.29W
04/11/2010 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP REPORTED TREE BLOCKING RIGHT LANE ON SOUTHBOUND 99
FWY JUST NORTH OF AVE 72

0343 PM NON-TSTM WND GST AVENAL 36.03N 120.11W
04/11/2010 M56.00 MPH KINGS CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0402 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 WSW LOS BANOS 36.98N 121.09W
04/11/2010 M35.00 MPH MERCED CA MESONET

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 21 W MERCED 37.30N 120.87W
04/11/2010 MERCED CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

AT SR 140 AT SR 165 A TREE WAS REPORTED IN ROADWAY.

0429 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE SANGER 36.67N 119.54W
04/11/2010 FRESNO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE IN ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF GOODFELLOW AVE AND
NEWMARK AVE

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LOST HILLS 35.62N 119.69W
04/11/2010 M37.00 MPH KERN CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0459 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 S PORTERVILLE 35.98N 119.03W
04/11/2010 TULARE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP REPORTED LARGE TREE IN ROADWAY ON ROAD 240 JUST NORTH
OF AVENUE 104

0543 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LEMOORE NAS 36.26N 119.90W
04/11/2010 M41.00 MPH KINGS CA ASOS

WEST WIND AT FRONTAL PASSAGE.

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FOUNTAIN SPRINGS 35.89N 118.92W
04/11/2010 M39.00 MPH TULARE CA MESONET

WEST WIND AND OCCURRED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

0604 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HANFORD 36.33N 119.65W
04/11/2010 M43.00 MPH KINGS CA ASOS

POST FRONTAL GUST FROM THE WEST. PREVIOUS SOUTH WIND AT
37 MPH CREATED CONSIDERABLE BLOWING DUST IN THE HANFORD
AREA. VISIBILITY AT THE HNX NWS OFFICE WAS BREIFLY NEAR
1/2 MILE AT 315 PM.

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
04/11/2010 KERN CA NEWSPAPER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE GREATER BAKERSFIELD
AREA WITH A FEW POWER LINES DOWN. ANY STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. TIME OF OCCURRENCES ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 1230 PM AND 500 PM PDT.

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PORTERVILLE 36.06N 119.03W
04/11/2010 M38.00 MPH TULARE CA AWOS

WEST WIND GUST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW HORSE MEADOW 38.16N 119.66W
04/12/2010 M14.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW TUOLUMNE MEADOWS 37.87N 119.35W
04/12/2010 M16.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW KAISER POINT 37.30N 119.10W
04/12/2010 M14.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW UPPER BURNT CORRAL 37.18N 118.94W
04/12/2010 M14.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW VOLCANIC KNOB 37.39N 118.90W
04/12/2010 M14.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW BLACKCAP BASIN 37.07N 118.77W
04/12/2010 M13.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW CHARLOTTE LAKE 36.80N 118.42W
04/12/2010 M11.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW BISHOP PASS 37.10N 118.56W
04/12/2010 M7.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW LOWER KIBBIE RIDGE 38.03N 119.88W
04/12/2010 M12.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW POISON RIDGE 37.40N 119.52W
04/12/2010 M18.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAVEYARD MEADOW 37.47N 119.29W
04/12/2010 M15.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW HUNTINGTON LAKE 37.23N 119.22W
04/12/2010 M15.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW CHILKOOT MEADOW 37.41N 119.49W
04/12/2010 M16.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW GREEN MTN 37.56N 119.24W
04/12/2010 M13.0 INCH MADERA CA MESONET

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW TAMARACK SUMMIT 37.17N 119.20W
04/12/2010 M15.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW CASA VIEJA MEADOWS 36.20N 118.27W
04/12/2010 M8.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW FAREWELL GAP 36.41N 118.58W
04/12/2010 M15.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW CHAGOOPA PLATEAU 36.50N 118.44W
04/12/2010 M12.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

0957 AM HEAVY SNOW QUAKING ASPEN 36.12N 118.54W
04/12/2010 M13.0 INCH TULARE CA MESONET

SNOTEL OBSERVATION.

1044 AM HEAVY SNOW GRANT GROVE 36.74N 118.96W
04/12/2010 M15.0 INCH FRESNO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

1044 AM HEAVY SNOW LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
04/12/2010 E15.0 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

0107 PM HAIL 10 S MERCED 37.15N 120.48W
04/12/2010 M0.50 INCH MERCED CA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY HAM OPERATOR.

0343 PM HAIL MADERA 36.97N 120.08W
04/12/2010 M0.25 INCH MADERA CA PUBLIC

0354 PM HAIL BAKERSFIELD 35.36N 119.00W
04/12/2010 E0.25 INCH KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL AROUND BAKERSFIELD
BETWEEN 4 AND 520 PM

0357 PM HAIL 3 N FRESNO 36.82N 119.79W
04/12/2010 M1.00 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1-2 INCHES OF HAIL REPORTED ON AVE 12 EAST OF MADERA
RANCHOS. LARGEST HAIL SIZE REPORTED UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

0357 PM HAIL MADERA 36.97N 120.08W
04/12/2010 M0.25 INCH MADERA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO REPORTS 1/2 RAIN IN 10 MINUTES. ALSO NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING FLASHES.

0400 PM LIGHTNING FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
04/12/2010 FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A CONDOMINIUM BUILDING ON VAN NESS
AVENUE JUST NORTH OF SHAW AVENUE. TWO UNITS WERE
DESTROYED WITH DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF 700,000 DOLLARS.

0409 PM HAIL FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
04/12/2010 M0.25 INCH FRESNO CA PUBLIC

OBSERVED AT SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY POLLUTION CONTROL OFFICE.

0409 PM HAIL 5 N FRESNO 36.85N 119.79W
04/12/2010 E0.50 INCH FRESNO CA PUBLIC

STATES APPROX 1 INCH OF HAIL ON THE GROUND.

0409 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
04/12/2010 FRESNO CA PUBLIC

A REPORT OF 3 FUNNEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF JENSON AND
DICKERSON.

0409 PM HAIL REEDLEY 36.60N 119.45W
04/12/2010 M0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0454 PM HAIL FOWLER 36.62N 119.67W
04/12/2010 M0.25 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

COVERING THE GROUND 1/2 EACH DEEP. ALSO PONDING WATER ON
SIDE OF ROAD.

0454 PM HAIL FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
04/12/2010 M0.50 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVED BETWEEN SHIELDS AND BULLARD.

0500 PM FLOOD CLOVIS 36.82N 119.70W
04/12/2010 FRESNO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

STREET FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN AT THE CORNER OF
GETTYSBURG AND WILLOW IN CLOVIS. OTHER REPORTS OF MINOR
STREET FLOODING IN THE FRESNO METRO AREA.

&&
STORM SUMMARY FROM APR 11-12
ALSO INCLUDES ADDITIONAL REPORT OF FLOODING IN CLOVIS, HAIL IN
BAKERSFIELD, AND UPDATED DAMAGE ESTIMATES DUE TO LIGHTNING FIRE IN
FRESNO.
$$

JBRO

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160100
SWODY1
SPC AC 160058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX...

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT AND SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE EAST OF NEARLY STATIONARY VORT MAX SITUATED OVER WRN TX. A
30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS S CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...VWP AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A GRADUAL VEERING
FROM 0-3 KM WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY GENERALLY AOB 100
M2/S2. WHILE SOME BRIEF...WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS ZONE...TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED.

...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY...

AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...NRN PORTION OF COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN IA AND THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z RAOB FROM GRB WI CONFIRMS THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 200 J/KG. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST FORCING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GRADUALLY SHIFTING SEWD TOWARD
THE OH VALLEY. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN POST
FRONTAL...BUT GRB RAOB DATA INDICATE 40-50 KT FLOW IN THE 1-6 KM
LAYER ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /20F
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS/. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY BEFORE DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING...THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS A
LIMITING FACTOR.

...ERN CO THROUGH KS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF
SERN CO AS WELL AS FARTHER EAST IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND SERN NEB. FLOW ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS AROUND 20F AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WILL SUPPORT A LOW END THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
UNTIL MID EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 04/16/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [160040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160040
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
740 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE VANDERPOOL 29.72N 99.54W
04/15/2010 E5.00 INCH BANDERA TX COCORAHS

RAINFALL SINCE 730 AM BUT MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SABINAL RIVER CROSSING FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000121

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGLD [160039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 160039
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW MORLAND 39.34N 100.09W
04/15/2010 M2.38 INCH GRAHAM KS TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 2.38 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DRAINAGE DITCHES RUNNING FULL
WITH STANDING WATER IN PASTURES AND FIELDS. ESTIMATED A 2
FOOT RISE ON SOUTH SOLOMON RIVER.

&&

$$

JRM

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTAE [160029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary...corrected.

NWUS52 KTAE 160029 CCA
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT THU APR 15 2010

CORRECTED TRACK OF GADSDEN EF-0 TORNADO FROM NW TO NE.

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM TORNADO NEW BROCKTON 31.39N 85.93W
04/08/2010 F0 COFFEE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST EAST OF ALABAMA
HIGHWAY 87. THE NEXT AREA OF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED EAST
NORTHEAST FROM THE INITIAL TOUCH DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD
611 WHERE A BARN WAS DESTROYED ALONG WITH SEVERAL TREES
SNAPPED. THE FINAL AREA OF DAMAGE WAS REPORTED NORTH OF
ALABAMA HIGHWAY 134 WHERE A ROOF WAS TAKEN OFF THE PORCH
OF A HOUSE ALONG WITH A PORTION OF THE ROOF OVER THE
KITCHEN. THE OVERALL PATH WIDTH OF DAMAGE WAS AROUND 75
YARDS. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 80 MPH OR EF-0 STRENGTH.

0238 PM TORNADO 3 S QUINCY 30.54N 84.58W
04/08/2010 F0 GADSDEN FL NWS STORM SURVEY

AN NWS SURVEY CREW IN CONJUNCTION WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOUND THE DAMAGE IN THIS LOCATION TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH AN EF-0 TORNADO WHICH TOUCHED DOWN JUST
SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA HIGHWAY 267 AND TRACKED NORTHEAST
ONTO HOLT LANE. DAMAGE SOUTHWEST OF HOLT LANE WAS LIMITED
TO TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. A FEW STRUCTURES WERE
DAMAGED ON HOLT LANE. ONE OUTBUILDING LOST ITS ROOF. THE
TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST CROSSING I-10 NEAR EXIT 181.
THE PATH LENGTH WAS 1 MILE WITH A WIDTH OF 75 YARDS.

0324 PM TSTM WND DMG NICHOLASVILLE 31.40N 84.67W
04/08/2010 EARLY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

60 FOOT GREENHOUSE DESTROYED BY DOWNBURST. TIME OF EVENT
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0602 PM TSTM WND DMG LLOYD 30.48N 84.02W
04/08/2010 JEFFERSON FL NWS STORM SURVEY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEYED THE AREA AROUND
LLOYD FLORIDA AT INTERSTATE 10 NEAR EXIT 215. THE DAMAGE
IN THIS AREA WAS LIMITED TO A FEW TREES AND AN AWNING TO
A GAS STATION JUST OFF FLORIDA HIGHWAY 59. THE DAMAGE IN
THIS AREA WAS DEEMED CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND ESTIMATED AROUND 65 MPH.

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE OCILLA 31.65N 83.19W
04/08/2010 IRWIN GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY.

0728 PM TSTM WND DMG CHERRY LAKE 30.58N 83.43W
04/08/2010 MADISON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE CHERRY LAKE AREA. POWER
OUTAGES ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

WOOL/GOULD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [160025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 160025
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
725 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM FLASH FLOOD 14 W TARPLEY 29.63N 99.52W
04/15/2010 BANDERA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 470 CLOSED BETWEEN TARPLEY AND HWY187

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000120

$$

JPB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KCRP [160018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 160018
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
717 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 PM FLASH FLOOD 18 S FREER 27.62N 98.62W
04/15/2010 DUVAL TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

3 FEET OF WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 16.

&&

$$

CB

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KARX [152315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KARX 152315
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL CALMAR 43.18N 91.87W
04/15/2010 E0.25 INCH WINNESHIEK IA CO-OP OBSERVER

CORRECTION TO LOCATION

&&

$$

TMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KARX [152311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 152311
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL WAUKON 43.27N 91.48W
04/15/2010 E0.25 INCH ALLAMAKEE IA CO-OP OBSERVER

ALSO WINDS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.

&&

$$

TMS

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KGRB [152035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 152035
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
334 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0322 PM TSTM WND GST 1 S PLOVER 44.44N 89.53W
04/15/2010 M53 MPH PORTAGE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

$$

BERSCH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151957
SWODY1
SPC AC 151955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
LOW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH THE AREA EXTENDED A LITTLE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI
WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS PRESENT PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS THIS REGION...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY
PRECLUDING A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. GENERAL TSTM LINE HAS
BEEN SHIFTED EWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN GIVEN
CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF COLD FRONT...AND SUBSEQUENT INTRUSION
OF DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB AND NERN AR/SERN MO AND SRN IL...
GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN TRENDS
IN RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND
VERY WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES THE NEED TO ADD ANY SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES.

...SRN APPALACHIANS...
REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED CU AND A
FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
AREA WSR-88D VWPS INDICATED FAVORABLE UPSLOPE...THOUGH GENERALLY
WEAK...WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTING THESE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU/CBS.

...ELSEWHERE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREAS AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND S TX LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/15/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010/

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG TROUGH MANITOBA TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE E DRIVING A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MN ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SUPPORTING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DEFICIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WITH HEATING MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG NERN WI INTO
UPPER MI WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FURTHER S AHEAD OF THE FRONT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE EVEN
LESS...WITH ANY FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS COLD FRONT NOW INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO CONTINUES SWD IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE SRN HI
PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
IN THIS AREA SHEAR IS WEAK SO ANY STRONG UPDRAFT WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO
CESSATION OF SURFACE HEATING.

...S TX...
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW TORNADO THREAT ACROSS S TX AT 13Z IS STILL
VALID...THUS LITTLE CHANGE.

INCREASINGLY MOIST /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ 2-3 KM DEEP ESELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF S TX THROUGH THIS
EVE...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING W TX UPR VORT. PERSISTENT
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME ALREADY HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCV-TYPE
CIRCULATION NEAR DRT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING...DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/CELL LONGEVITY ALONG NRN AND ERN FRINGE OF THE MCV. GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL VEERING LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD STORMS TO BRIEFLY ASSUME
LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT
FOR A TORNADO.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [151929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 151929
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNW PEARSALL 28.99N 99.14W
04/15/2010 M2.66 INCH FRIO TX COCORAHS

2.66 INCHES IN 90 MINUTES AND 4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

1045 AM FLOOD 15 N COMSTOCK 29.90N 101.17W
04/15/2010 VAL VERDE TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SH 163 NORTH OF COMSTOCK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

1115 AM FLOOD 2 N CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.55N 99.86W
04/15/2010 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 1407 AND FM 1557 IN CARRIZO SPRINGS ARE CLOSED DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADS.

0220 PM FLOOD 3 W LACOSTE 29.31N 98.86W
04/15/2010 MEDINA TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM471... CR482... CR584 IN AND NEAR LACOSTE ARE CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0222 PM FLOOD 5 N UVALDE 29.29N 99.78W
04/15/2010 UVALDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 1051 NORTH OF UVALDE IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE
ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000117 EWX1000116 EWX1000115 EWX1000119 EWX1000118

$$

MCDONALD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KEWX [151859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 151859
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNW PEARSALL 28.99N 99.14W
04/15/2010 M2.66 INCH FRIO TX COCORAHS

2.66 INCHES IN 90 MINUTES AND 4 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.

1045 AM FLOOD 15 N COMSTOCK 29.90N 101.17W
04/15/2010 VAL VERDE TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SH 163 NORTH OF COMSTOCK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

1115 AM FLOOD 2 N CARRIZO SPRINGS 28.55N 99.86W
04/15/2010 DIMMIT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FM 1407 AND FM 1557 IN CARRIZO SPRINGS ARE CLOSED DUE
TO WATER OVER THE ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000117 EWX1000116 EWX1000115

$$

MCDONALD

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0317

ACUS11 KWNS 151850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151849
TXZ000-152145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TO WRN AND CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 151849Z - 152145Z

MAIN MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WITH BAND OF
TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 18Z FROM BEE COUNTY NWWD ACROSS SAT/ERV AREAS --
AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD WHILE BACKBUILDING ON ITS SEWD END. RATES
1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST CORES...WITH TRAINING OF
CORES IN SOME LOCALES DUE TO SLOW TRANSLATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND.
FARTHER W...ISOLATED/EMBEDDED 1 INCH/HOUR CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
BROADER PRECIP PLUME FROM UVA/HDO REGION NWWD PAST MAF.

WARM-CORE/MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE OPEN-WAVE IN
CHARACTER WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WITHIN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
CNM...INK...50 W DRT...50 W LRD. THIS PERTURBATION AND RELATED
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT CONVEYOR SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AT SFC...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
BOOST BUOYANCY ON ERN PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH
ALSO WILL CONSTITUTE INFLOW LAYER FROM MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN NWWD
INTO SRN HILL COUNTRY. MODIFICATIONS TO BOTH RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIAL WARM-CLOUD
PRECIP PROCESSES...YET BUOYANCY DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SE OF I-35. GREATEST AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF PRECIP
AREA...WHERE 1.5-1.75 INCH PW WILL PERSIST. RUC REASONABLY PROGS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX NOW INVOF SAT TO SHIFT NNWWD TOWARD SJT
THROUGH EVENING AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT...BUT VERY SLOWLY. FOR
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GREATEST PRECIP RATES SHOULD REMAIN WITH TSTMS
CLOSER TO COASTAL PLAIN AIR MASS. CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO IS EVIDENT BEHIND PRECIP PLUME OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...FROM WEBB TO VAL VERDE COUNTIES. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED/TRANSIENT IN THIS REGION BUT COULD YIELD BRIEF/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 28409799 29819912 29019970 31810196 33000143 32190030
31089949 30769857 29239730 28409799

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151725
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING
DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT 12Z FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH NRN MO TO
SRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY S/SEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY...WHILE A NNW-SSE ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD INTO ERN PA/SERN NY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL WINDS /50-60 KT/ WITHIN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS...WITH A WLY LLJ AROUND 40 KT THROUGH THE UPPER OH
VALLEY...SUPPORT STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SPEED
SHEAR FOR BOTH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK REMAINS
WITH THE RELATIVELY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 50S AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. IF GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...THEN A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN
UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

...PACIFIC NW TO ERN UT/WRN CO TO WRN NM...
COMPACT LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC /W OF CA/ AT 34N/135W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE CA COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT DURING
DAY 2 WITH THE NRN PORTION TRACKING NNEWD INTO ORE/WA...WHILE THE
SRN EXTENT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWWD FROM WRN NM TO THE PACIFIC NW AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE TWO TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J PER KG/. INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT THIS GENERAL TSTM
AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL...THOUGH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...WOULD BE ACROSS SWRN NM AND NERN ORE/ERN WA WHERE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 25-30 KT SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS. HOWEVER...THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KTFX [151718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151718
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1118 AM MDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 S CHOTEAU 47.78N 112.18W
04/15/2010 M0.7 INCH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL LIQUID PCPN

&&

$$

DEMANUEL

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151621
SWODY1
SPC AC 151619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG TROUGH MANITOBA TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE E DRIVING A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MN ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SUPPORTING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DEFICIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WITH HEATING MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG NERN WI INTO
UPPER MI WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FURTHER S AHEAD OF THE FRONT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE EVEN
LESS...WITH ANY FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS COLD FRONT NOW INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO CONTINUES SWD IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE SRN HI
PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
IN THIS AREA SHEAR IS WEAK SO ANY STRONG UPDRAFT WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO
CESSATION OF SURFACE HEATING.

...S TX...
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW TORNADO THREAT ACROSS S TX AT 13Z IS STILL
VALID...THUS LITTLE CHANGE.

INCREASINGLY MOIST /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ 2-3 KM DEEP ESELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF S TX THROUGH THIS
EVE...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING W TX UPR VORT. PERSISTENT
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME ALREADY HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCV-TYPE
CIRCULATION NEAR DRT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING...DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/CELL LONGEVITY ALONG NRN AND ERN FRINGE OF THE MCV. GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL VEERING LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD STORMS TO BRIEFLY ASSUME
LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT
FOR A TORNADO.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMAF [151551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 151551
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 E MIDLAND 32.00N 101.99W
04/15/2010 MIDLAND TX PUBLIC

SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF WATER RUNNING OVER THE
INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 20 AND COUNTY ROAD 1140.

&&

$$

KAH

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMFR [151517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 151517
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
817 AM PDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW APPLEGATE 42.21N 123.19W
04/15/2010 M0.58 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 8 AM.

&&

$$

SANDLER

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0316

ACUS11 KWNS 151435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151435
TXZ000-151730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TO W-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 151435Z - 151730Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR EPISODIC RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR
BEGINNING S OF I-10 AND SW OF I-37...THEN SPREADING NWD OVER SRN/WRN
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH TIME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER LOW MOVING NWD ACROSS
RIO GRANDE INVOF DRT...CORROBORATED WITH SIMILARLY MOVING VORTEX
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER SRN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 14Z.
STG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL PERSIST E THROUGH SE OF
THAT CIRCULATION...WITH SUSTAINED/30-40 KT SELY LLJ EMANATING FROM
NWRN GULF. SOURCE-LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THAT AREA
GIVEN SEVERAL COMMON MEASURES -- E.G. GPS AND SOUNDING PW AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F...MEAN MIXING RATIO
12-14 G/KG...AND ANALYZED 925-850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND 15 AND 12 DEG
C RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH DEEP
LAYER...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HOUR GIVEN PRESENCE OF PROLONGED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MODIFIED RAOBS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE LIKELIHOOD OF MIXTURE OF EFFICIENT
WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES AND DEEP TSTMS. IN ADDITION...MERGERS OF
CONVECTION ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF PRIMARY/INITIAL RAIN AREA WILL
ENHANCE RATES LOCALLY. DIABATIC HEATING OF INFLOW LAYER WILL BE
GRADUAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THETAE
ADVECTION...SHOULD OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INCREASE MLCAPE
ABOVE 500 J/KG OVER SRN HILL COUNTRY AND RAISE BUOYANT LAYER TO NEAR
TROPOPAUSE...IN SUPPORT OF DEEP PRECIP GENERATION IN AREA OF
SUSTAINED/DEEP ASCENT. ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR ALSO WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED HEAVY RATES WITHIN BROADER/LONG-LASTING PRECIP SHIELD
NWWD AS FAR AS ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN CAPROCK AREAS OF W TX.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 28379875 30070002 31760181 32480191 33030145 31019923
29429848 28379875

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KMPX [151355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 151355
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
855 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW MINNEAPOLIS 44.95N 93.35W
04/15/2010 M0.50 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

DFC

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151248
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN LARGELY N OF THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...LEAVING MUCH OF THE NATION IN RELATIVELY SLACK FLOW. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS...WHERE MODERATE
WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SRN SIDE OF UPR LOW MOVING E INTO ONTARIO.
FARTHER S...WEAK VORT NOW OVER FAR W TX SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY E
THROUGH FRI.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO UPR SYSTEM WILL MOVE
STEADILY E/SE ACROSS MN/WI/IA/NRN IL AND MI...WHILE TRAILING WRN
PART RESUMES A SLOWER SWD PUSH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. WARM FRONT
NOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN MI SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND EXTEND
FROM DE INTO ERN PA AND NY BY 12Z FRI.

...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-
FRONTAL AIR OVER THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY...WHERE PW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH AND AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPR 40S TO THE LWR 50S F. MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE VERY
STEEP...THUS SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. THE FRONTAL ZONE
WILL...HOWEVER...BE GLANCED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE
CROSSING THE DAKOTAS.

BY EARLY AFTN...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF EXISTING CONFLUENCE AXIS
NOW EXTENDING FROM NE NEB TO UPR MI SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST
STRENGTHENING /AND POSSIBLY AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/ OF TSTMS NOW
PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AMPLE /40+ KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL
EXIST IN THE REGION FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS. BUT
WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF AN APPRECIABLE THREAT
FOR SVR WIND AND HAIL.

...CNTRL PLNS...
FARTHER S...LOW-MID 50S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM SRN NEB INTO KS/ERN CO...BENEATH SOMEWHAT
STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THAN THOSE EXPECTED OVER THE UPR MS VLY.
WITH HEATING...THIS SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG BY AFTN.
UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE... AND WIND PROFILES
WEAK. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND LIGHT POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...MAY SUPPORT SLOWLY-MOVING/REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL
STORMS. THESE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL INTO
TONIGHT.

...S TX...
INCREASINGLY MOIST /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ 2-3 KM DEEP ESELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF S TX THROUGH THIS
EVE...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING W TX UPR VORT. PERSISTENT
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME ALREADY HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCV-TYPE
CIRCULATION NEAR DRT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING...DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/CELL LONGEVITY ALONG NRN AND ERN FRINGE OF THE MCV. GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL VEERING LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD STORMS TO BRIEFLY ASSUME
LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT
FOR A TORNADO.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK/GRAMS.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

KDDC [151217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDDC 151217
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
717 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 14 W WAKEENEY 39.02N 100.14W
04/14/2010 M0.75 INCH TREGO KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

BURKE

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-lsr" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150823
SWOD48
SPC AC 150822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. BY
MID WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE WRN U.S. TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
STATES. THIS FEATURE...IF ACCURATELY PROJECTED...SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRAW A FAIRLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
NWD ACROSS THE GOM INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150716
SWODY3
SPC AC 150714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

CONCENTRATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED SWD
INTO THE GULF STATES AND WWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD AS NWLY FLOW DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. A REINFORCING SHOT
OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
FORCING THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z TO A POSITION FROM THE
CAROLINAS...WWD ALONG I-20 INTO CNTRL TX. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND
SHIFT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF TX/NM. EVEN SO SHEAR/INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY PROVE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150549
SWODY1
SPC AC 150547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL CREST UPPER RIDGE
AND TURN ESEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO
NRN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN WI SWWD THROUGH NW
KS AND E-CNTRL CO BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS WHICH ALONG WITH
DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN CO
INTO WRN KS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA AND NRN MN...AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WEAK ELY POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW IN ERN CO. MULTICELL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN MODEST UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS
FARTHER EAST ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...

LOW 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIABATIC WARMING WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER CONVERGENCE FROM NRN WI
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WITH WEAKER FORCING FARTHER SW ALONG
FRONT FROM SWRN WI INTO IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM MI
SWWD THROUGH WI AND IA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO A
DESTABILIZING AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODERATE
WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
AOA 20F MAY PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SERVE AS
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT...BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150502
SWODY2
SPC AC 150501

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH
VALLEY AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE BASE
OF DIGGING TROUGH OVER OH/PA BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SURGES TO
A POSITION NEAR THE OH RIVER BY 17/00Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF WIND
SHIFT...SFC-3KM VALUES APPROACHING 9 C/KM...ENSURING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IS A BIT MARGINAL...SFC DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S
WHICH SHOULD YIELD ROUGHLY 500 J/KG SBCAPE FOR ROBUST FAST-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS AN
EXTENSIVE BAND...OR BANDS...OF FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE FROM
THE UPPER OH VALLEY...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE FLOW
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. AT THIS TIME EXPECTED INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT
INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND THREAT WITH DEEP CONVECTION
THAT EVOLVES ALONG/AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...IF INSTABILITY INCREASES MORE THAN
MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2010

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.