SWODY1
SPC AC 150547
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL CREST UPPER RIDGE
AND TURN ESEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO
NRN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NRN WI SWWD THROUGH NW
KS AND E-CNTRL CO BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS WHICH ALONG WITH
DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM ERN CO
INTO WRN KS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA AND NRN MN...AND THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. WEAK ELY POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW IN ERN CO. MULTICELL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN MODEST UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS
FARTHER EAST ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SERVE
AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...
LOW 50S DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIABATIC WARMING WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DEEPER CONVERGENCE FROM NRN WI
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WITH WEAKER FORCING FARTHER SW ALONG
FRONT FROM SWRN WI INTO IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP FROM MI
SWWD THROUGH WI AND IA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO A
DESTABILIZING AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODERATE
WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
AOA 20F MAY PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. SOME HAIL
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SERVE AS
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT...BUT AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 04/15/2010
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