Friday, November 6, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070049
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH UIL AND SLE EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER FOR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LIGHTNING...THOUGH SBCAPE IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP THROUGH AT LEAST 4KM TO 6KM ALONG
THE WA/ORE COAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE
FOR CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY. FARTHER INLAND...LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
ACROSS ERN WA BUT PWAT IS QUITE LOW AND PROFILES MAY BE TOO COOL FOR
MORE THAN ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..DARROW.. 11/07/2009

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KMFR [070012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070012
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
412 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.18W
11/06/2009 M1.05 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KSEW [062333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062333
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM HAIL FACTORIA 47.58N 122.17W
11/06/2009 M0.25 INCH KING WA PUBLIC


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [062331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062331
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
331 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 3 E COPALIS BEACH 47.12N 124.12W
11/06/2009 M0.25 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL SHOWER.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KTFX [062218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 062218
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
317 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/05/2009 M41.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

41 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2009 M67.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

67 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/05/2009 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0508 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/05/2009 M47.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

48 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/06/2009 M66.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

66 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

0333 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/06/2009 M60.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

0354 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M49.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M52.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0919 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS...ON INTERSTATE 15.

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NE CRAIG 47.15N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M57.00 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF
DEARBORN...ON INTERSTATE 15.

0938 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M54.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW GREAT FALLS 47.45N 111.37W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

0952 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE HELENA 46.61N 111.96W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HELENA AIRPORT.

0954 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.69W
11/06/2009 M58.00 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE ELKHORN RAWS LOCATION.

1006 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
11/06/2009 M55.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF
LOMA.

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW LEWISTOWN 47.04N 109.46W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH FERGUS MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE LEWISTOWN AIRPORT.

1042 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W HAVRE 48.54N 109.77W
11/06/2009 M51.00 MPH HILL MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HAVRE AIRPORT.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.56N 110.64W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
INVERNESS.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE GEYSER 47.26N 110.45W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
GEYSER.

1052 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

1113 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
11/06/2009 M63.00 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
DENTON.

1134 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M56.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

1150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E GEYSER 47.27N 110.36W
11/06/2009 M67.00 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

67 MPH PEAK WIND GUST A WIND SENSOR JUST EAST OF GEYSER.

1153 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
11/06/2009 M60.00 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE WIND SENSOR JUST EAST OF
ROY.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
11/06/2009 M64.00 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 MPH.


&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS RECEVIED SINCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRUSDA

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KSEW [062047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062047
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1247 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM HAIL 1 SSE CLEARVIEW 47.82N 122.11W
11/06/2009 M0.50 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL SHOWERS STARTING TO COVER THE GROUND. HAIL
SIZE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [062032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062032
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1232 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM HAIL 5 ESE MONTESANO 46.98N 123.50W
11/06/2009 E0.25 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL SHOWER PASSED THROUGH.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [062029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062029
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1229 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1229 PM HAIL 5 ENE BALLARD 47.71N 122.30W
11/06/2009 E0.25 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL SHOWER. LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. HAIL
COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KTFX [062026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 062026
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
125 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
11/06/2009 M64 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 TO 45 MPH.


&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KSEW [062022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 062022
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1222 PM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM HAIL 1 E BALLARD 47.67N 122.36W
11/06/2009 E0.25 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL SHOWER. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KTFX [061945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061945
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1245 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M60 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061937
SWODY1
SPC AC 061935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF WA AND OREGON...WHERE MINIMAL INSTABILITY BUT MOIST
WSWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW STRIKES
POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS NERN WA/NRN ID THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE
FL KEYS...BUT THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE AREA NEARER
TO CUBA.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009/

...WRN WA/WRN OREGON...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF AK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z UIL
SOUNDING EXHIBITS STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH NEARLY 400 MB AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 300 J/KG...WITH AMPLE
UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN PARTS OF WA AND OREGON. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH THE WA COAST.

...NERN WA/NRN ID...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THIS AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION AND
MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG. MOST FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

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KTFX [061937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061937
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1237 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE GEYSER 47.26N 110.45W
11/06/2009 M53 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
GEYSER.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [061931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061931
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1231 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
11/06/2009 M60 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE WIND SENSOR JUST EAST OF
ROY.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [061928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061928
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1228 PM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
11/06/2009 M55.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF
LOMA.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.56N 110.64W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
INVERNESS.

1113 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
11/06/2009 M63.00 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
DENTON.

1134 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M56.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

56 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

1150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E GEYSER 47.27N 110.36W
11/06/2009 M67.00 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

67 MPH PEAK WIND GUST A WIND SENSOR JUST EAST OF GEYSER.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [061854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061854
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1154 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW WOLF CREEK 46.92N 112.19W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENOR NEAR SIEBEN
FLATS...ON INTERSTATE 15.

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NE CRAIG 47.15N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M57.00 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTH OF
DEARBORN...ON INTERSTATE 15.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCYS [061847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061847
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/06/2009 E67 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WIND GUSTS 59 TO 67 MPH FROM 1015 AM TO 1125 AM.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KTFX [061821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061821
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1121 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.69W
11/06/2009 M58 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE ELKHORN RAWS LOCATION.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCYS [061819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061819
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1119 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/06/2009 E60 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KTFX [061812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 061812
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1111 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1213 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/05/2009 M41.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

41 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2009 M67.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

67 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/05/2009 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0508 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/05/2009 M47.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

48 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/06/2009 M66.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

66 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

0333 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/06/2009 M60.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

0354 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M49.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M52.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0938 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M54.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW GREAT FALLS 47.45N 111.37W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

0952 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE HELENA 46.61N 111.96W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HELENA AIRPORT.

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW LEWISTOWN 47.04N 109.46W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH FERGUS MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE LEWISTOWN AIRPORT.

1042 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W HAVRE 48.54N 109.77W
11/06/2009 M51.00 MPH HILL MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HAVRE AIRPORT.

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS RECEVIED SINCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [061808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061808
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1108 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/06/2009 M66.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

66 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

1042 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W HAVRE 48.54N 109.77W
11/06/2009 M51.00 MPH HILL MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HAVRE AIRPORT.

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KCYS [061740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 061740
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1040 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
11/06/2009 M59 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1014 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
11/06/2009 E59 MPH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KTFX [061723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061723
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1023 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M54.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

54 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0949 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW GREAT FALLS 47.45N 111.37W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH CASCADE MT MESONET

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

0952 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ENE HELENA 46.61N 111.96W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE HELENA AIRPORT.

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW LEWISTOWN 47.04N 109.46W
11/06/2009 M53.00 MPH FERGUS MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE LEWISTOWN AIRPORT.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KMFR [061701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061701
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
901 AM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN W DUNSMUIR 41.23N 122.27W
11/06/2009 M2.05 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061643
SWODY2
SPC AC 061642

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT -- WITH EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE FEATURES --
WILL PERSIST FROM WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW ENEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY NONDESCRIPT PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH
A FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS PROGGED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GREATEST DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE PAC
NW THIS PERIOD...WHERE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS FORECAST
DUE TO PERSISTENT MOIST WLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY AFFECT
S FL/THE KEYS...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL NERN MEXICO/SERN TX LATER IN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE THUNDER APPEARS LIMITED
AT BEST IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS.

..GOSS.. 11/06/2009

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KTFX [061625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 061625
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
925 AM MST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/06/2009 M60.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

0354 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/06/2009 M49.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
11/06/2009 M52.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061615
SWODY1
SPC AC 061613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN WA/WRN OREGON...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF AK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z UIL
SOUNDING EXHIBITS STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH NEARLY 400 MB AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 300 J/KG...WITH AMPLE
UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN PARTS OF WA AND OREGON. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH THE WA COAST.

...NERN WA/NRN ID...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THIS AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION AND
MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG. MOST FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 11/06/2009

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KPQR [061514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 061514
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
714 AM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ASTORIA 46.19N 123.82W
11/05/2009 M68 MPH CLATSOP OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ON THE 101 BRIDGE...GUST OF 68 MPH.

0433 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W ASTORIA 46.19N 123.93W
11/05/2009 M68 MPH CLATSOP OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CLATSOP SPIT...WIND GUST OF 68 MPH.

0333 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SEASIDE 45.99N 123.92W
11/05/2009 M64 MPH CLATSOP OR CO-OP OBSERVER

SEASIDE POLICE....PEAK GUST OF 64 MPH.

0636 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GARIBALDI 45.56N 123.91W
11/05/2009 M91 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

NWS SENSORS REPORT PEAK GUSTS OF 91 MPH AND 76 MPH.

0550 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE MEARES 45.49N 123.97W
11/05/2009 M67 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL

0503 PM NON-TSTM WND GST TILLAMOOK 45.46N 123.84W
11/05/2009 M80 MPH TILLAMOOK OR UNKNOWN

AT TILLAMOOK HEAD....PEAK GUST OF 80 MPH.

0543 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.96W
11/05/2009 M63 MPH TILLAMOOK OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0531 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN BEACH 44.85N 124.04W
11/05/2009 M61 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

IN LINCOLN CITY...PEAK GUST OF 61 MPH.

0531 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE FOULWEATHER 44.78N 124.07W
11/05/2009 M78 MPH LINCOLN OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
11/05/2009 M62 MPH LINCOLN OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

IN NEWPOT ON THE 101 BRIDGE...62 MPH. ON THE JETTY...60
MPH.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WALDPORT 44.42N 124.06W
11/05/2009 M80 MPH LINCOLN OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N FLORENCE 44.13N 124.10W
11/05/2009 M89 MPH LANE OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SEA LION CAVES...PEAK GUST OF 89 MPH.

0657 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLORENCE 43.99N 124.10W
11/05/2009 M59 MPH LANE OR UNKNOWN

SIUSLAW JETTY...PEAK GUST OF 59 MPH.


&&

$$

RNELSON

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KMFR [061508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061508
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
708 AM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/06/2009 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNT IS FROM 1030 AM THURSDAY TO 700 AM PST FRIDAY


&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [061317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061317
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
517 AM PST FRI NOV 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/05/2009 E60 MPH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WIND REPORTEDLY 40-45 MPH THURSDAY EVENING.
ALSO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 5 AM PST FRIDAY.


&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061235
SWODY1
SPC AC 061233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO THE PAC
NW...WITH PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...OCCURRING CLOSE TO THE WA/ORE COAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN.
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXTENDING INTO THE MIXED PHASE REGION /PER 12Z UIL RAOB/. THIS
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED THREAT OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER E...MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY REACH THE NRN ROCKIES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HERE TOO COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH
MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS/LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/06/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060840
SWOD48
SPC AC 060839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
EJECTS EWD THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND PHASES WITH NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND TRACK EWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WARM
SECTOR MOVING INLAND MONDAY-TUESDAY (DAY 4-5). HOWEVER...DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE WITH REMNANTS OF IDA AS IT EMERGES
INTO THE GULF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT ONSHORE ADVECTION OF
RICHER MOISTURE. NET RESULT IS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SMALL.

BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WHERE REMNANTS OF IDA
COULD POSE SOME THREAT. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW BEYOND DAY 5. SEE DISCUSSION FROM
NHC FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING IDA.

..DIAL.. 11/06/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060727
SWODY3
SPC AC 060726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...S THROUGH SERN TX AND SRN LA...

UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE BAJA AREA IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND S TX SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY OVER THE
WRN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS S AND SERN
TX...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SRN LA SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASINGLY MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY
OFFSHORE WHICH WOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION.

..DIAL.. 11/06/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060542
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST THU NOV 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE COUNTRY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS REMAINING OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE BAJA AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE DESPITE BEING SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE ZONE OF FASTER
FLOW FARTHER NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -28 TO -30C AT 500 MB BENEATH A MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE IN COASTAL REGIONS. ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. OTHER MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

...S TX...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
NWWD AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO ESELY AND UPPER FLOW VEERS TO
SLY IN WAKE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER S TX LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10% UNTIL SUNDAY.

..DIAL.. 11/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060522
SWODY1
SPC AC 060521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST THU NOV 05 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DEEPEN ALONG THE PACIFIC
NW COAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HR AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO WA/ORE.
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND IS
SPREADING ACROSS THE CASCADES...SOON TO BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
BUOYANT PROFILES AS MARINE LAYER SURGES INLAND DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS
LOW-TOPPED CBS...SOME ARE PRODUCING LIGHTNING...APPROACHING THE WA
COAST. GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD AND PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST.

..DARROW.. 11/06/2009

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