SWODY2
SPC AC 060541
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST THU NOV 05 2009
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE COUNTRY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS REMAINING OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING THE BAJA AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE DESPITE BEING SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE ZONE OF FASTER
FLOW FARTHER NORTH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER N-CNTRL MEXICO BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
...PACIFIC NW COAST...
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -28 TO -30C AT 500 MB BENEATH A MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN 200-400 J/KG MLCAPE IN COASTAL REGIONS. ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. OTHER MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
...S TX...
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
NWWD AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO ESELY AND UPPER FLOW VEERS TO
SLY IN WAKE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN MEXICO. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER S TX LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10% UNTIL SUNDAY.
..DIAL.. 11/06/2009
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