KSJT [132358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132358
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
657 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE VIEW 32.35N 99.87W
10/13/2012 TAYLOR TX AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL POWER POLES WERE KNOCKED DOWN IN THE VIEW AREA
WHERE HIGHWAY 277 INTERSECTS COUNTY ROAD 209 AND FM 1235


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200262

$$

JOHNSON

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KAPX [132356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132356
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
756 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
10/13/2012 M0.62 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

6 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM.


&&

$$

JSL

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KGRR [132353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 132353
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
753 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE GALESBURG 42.28N 85.40W
10/13/2012 E0.00 INCH KALAMAZOO MI PUBLIC

PUBLIC OBSERVED WATER STANDING ON ROADWAY NEAR
INTERSECTION OF S 9TH AND KL AVE. ESTIMATED TO BE SIX
INCHES DEEP


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KILX [132350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 132350
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN HOOPESTON 40.47N 87.67W
10/13/2012 M1.30 INCH VERMILION IL CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

25

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KAPX [132349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132349
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
749 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 PM HEAVY RAIN BOYNE CITY 45.18N 84.96W
10/13/2012 M0.44 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM.


&&

$$

JSL

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KSJT [132343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132343
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HAIL 5 NW SAN ANGELO 31.50N 100.51W
10/13/2012 E1.75 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

NEAR BUFALLO HEIGHTS


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200261

$$

REIMER

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KTSA [132342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 132342
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0634 PM TSTM WND GST 7 E CENTRAILIA 36.80N 95.21W
10/13/2012 M72 MPH CRAIG OK MESONET


&&

$$

JBM

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KSJT [132341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132341
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM HAIL 4 SSW ABILENE 32.40N 99.75W
10/13/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR TX OTHER FEDERAL

REPORT FROM A CERTIFIED WEATHER OBSERVER FROM DYESS AFB

0629 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSW ABILENE 32.40N 99.75W
10/13/2012 E58 MPH TAYLOR TX OTHER FEDERAL

REPORT FROM A CERTIFIED WEATHER OBSERVER FROM DYESS AFB


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200259
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200260

$$

JOHNSON

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KAPX [132337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132337
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
737 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 SSW ST. HELEN 44.26N 84.48W
10/13/2012 M1.18 INCH ROSCOMMON MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM.


&&

$$

JSL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2051

ACUS11 KWNS 132330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132330
TXZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132330Z - 140030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER...THOUGH SPACE/TIME WINDOW APPEARS RELATIVELY SMALL.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THIS
REGION AFTER 02Z FROM WW 662...AND WILL BE COVERED WITH LATER
DISCUSSION(S) RELATE TO THAT REGIME.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS REVEALS NO SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARIES OVER
THIS REGION...EXCEPT FOR SUBTLE OUTFLOW ARC ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FROM LEON/BASTROP COUNTIES AS OF 23Z.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY/VIS IMAGERY SWWD
ACROSS SAT AREA. ALTHOUGH WEAKLY FORCED IN LOW LEVELS...COMBINATION
OF LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL
THETAE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WEAK MLCINH WITH MLCAPE IN 500-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER THIS AREA. SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMONLY 70S F IN
PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...NEAR N-S ORIENTED MOIST AXIS...WITH PW
2-2.25 INCH DETECTED BY GPS EQUIPMENT W OF I-45. FARTHER E...AIR
MASS BECOMES DRIER DUE TO PRIOR MIXING IN RELATIVELY PERSISTENT AREA
OF DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH MOIST ADVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING SHOULD SPREAD FAVORABLE PW BACK NWD THROUGH E-CENTRAL TX.

EXISTING BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY SEEMS MRGL TO OVERCOME STABLE
LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB IN FCST SOUNDINGS...AND MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
CONTINUITY. THIS AREA IS ON SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HODOGRAPH DERIVED FROM LDB PROFILER WINDS YIELDING 150-200 J/KG OF
0-3 KM AGL SRH. INTERMITTENT STORM-SCALE ROTATION HAS BEEN
INDICATED IN CELL MOVING FROM BASTROP INTO LEE COUNTY...AND YET MAY
OCCUR WITH OTHER CELLS IN AREA AS WELL. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF MORE VIGOROUS MESOBETA
SCALE FOCI FOR ASCENT.

..EDWARDS/HART.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29429926 31659635 31859521 31489457 30909453 30439467
29559559 29229735 29189895 29429926

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2050

ACUS11 KWNS 132326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132326
KSZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...

VALID 132326Z - 140030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...AND PERHAPS
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND SLOWLY
SPREAD EWD TOWARDS ERN KS LATER THIS EVENING. LOCAL WFO/S MAY
CONSIDER REMOVING COUNTIES FROM WW 663 IN THE WAKE OF THE
DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL KS.

DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE HAS OCCURRED WITHIN
THE PAST COUPLE HRS /MAINLY ACROSS N-CNTRL KS/ AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH DPVA/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WRN KS. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW /ANALYZED W
OF SLN/ AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL
KS. THIS AREA IS ALSO ALIGNED JUST W OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS...AND AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. A
NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO EXIST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /E.G. 25-30 KTS PER TWX VWP DATA/.

WITH TIME...SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH. WEAKER
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS ERN KS DUE TO A COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
AS CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...18Z NAM AND
21Z RAP FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MINIMAL CINH WILL BE
PRESENT BEYOND SUNSET AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS
EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN...A CONTINUED
RISK OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH A LESSER
THREAT FOR HAIL AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 37049668 37019755 37109830 38189822 38959842 39509815
39869743 39919659 39829615 39179557 37669611 37049668

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KSJT [132324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132324
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM HAIL 1 S ABILENE 32.43N 99.73W
10/13/2012 M1.00 INCH TAYLOR TX AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF ABILENE


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200258

$$

JOHNSON

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KSJT [132317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132317
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
617 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 PM HAIL GRAPE CREEK 31.58N 100.55W
10/13/2012 E0.88 INCH TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200257

$$

JOHNSON

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KOUN [132316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 132316
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E WAURIKA 34.17N 97.96W
10/13/2012 JEFFERSON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER POLE DOWN OFF HIGHWAY 70 FROM HIGH WINDS


&&

$$

MBS

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KAPX [132316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132316
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
716 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HEAVY RAIN 11 N LAKE CITY 44.49N 85.21W
10/13/2012 M0.83 INCH MISSAUKEE MI SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM.


&&

$$

JSL

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KOUN [132315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 132315
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE WAURIKA 34.19N 97.93W
10/13/2012 JEFFERSON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

FLAG POLE DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS.


&&

$$

MBS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 664

WWUS20 KWNS 132256
SEL4
SPC WW 132256
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-140500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM 600 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 661...WW 662...WW 663...

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS AND SUFFICIENT
CAPE VALUES WILL PROVIDE A RISK OF ISOLATED INTENSE STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HART

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KOUN [132257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 132257
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
557 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S HEALDTON 34.19N 97.49W
10/13/2012 M61 MPH CARTER OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RBARNES

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KOUN [132253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 132253
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
553 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N RINGLING 34.19N 97.59W
10/13/2012 M80.00 MPH JEFFERSON OK MESONET


&&

$$

MBS

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KSJT [132243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132243
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 PM HAIL 12 SE BARNHART 30.99N 101.06W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH CROCKETT TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200256

$$

JOHNSON

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KTOP [132236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 132236
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/13/2012 OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTED A POWER LINE DOWN FROM THE STRONG WINDS
IN MINNEAPOLIS.


&&

$$

JW

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KAPX [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132234
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
634 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SW BRETHREN 44.25N 86.09W
10/13/2012 M1.03 INCH MANISTEE MI SPOTTER

12HR TOTAL THRU 630 PM.


&&

$$

SWR

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KKEY [132233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 132233
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
633 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM WATER SPOUT 11 WNW KEY WEST 24.62N 81.94W
10/13/2012 GMZ032 FL SHIP

MATURE WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY A SHIP LOCATED 11 MILES
OFFSHORE TO THE WNW OF KEY WEST. SPRAY RING AND RAIN
SHAFT WERE VISIBLE. WATERSPOUT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SW.
FIRST OBSERVED REPORT OF THE WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED JUST
AFTER 6 PM.


&&

$$

EVICKERY

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KTOP [132224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 132224
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TSTM WND GST SSE MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.70W
10/13/2012 E65 MPH OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JW

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KTOP [132223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 132223
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 4 NE DELPHOS 39.31N 97.72W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH CLOUD KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KS

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KICT [132213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132213
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
513 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0513 PM HAIL MOUNT HOPE 37.87N 97.66W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ARL

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KTSA [132213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 132213
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S WYNONA 36.52N 96.33W
10/13/2012 M70 MPH OSAGE OK MESONET


&&

$$

JBM

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KGLD [132208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 132208
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
10/13/2012 M0.75 INCH DUNDY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY 1/2 INCH OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL


&&

$$

FS

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KGLD [132206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 132206
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM HAIL BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.54W
10/13/2012 E0.50 INCH DUNDY NE CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

FS

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KICT [132159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 132159
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM HAIL ELLSWORTH 38.74N 98.23W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH ELLSWORTH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

HOWERTON

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KAPX [132135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 132135
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
535 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HEAVY RAIN MANISTEE 44.24N 86.33W
10/13/2012 M1.18 INCH MANISTEE MI AWOS

12HR TOTAL THRU 5PM.

0531 PM HEAVY RAIN WELLSTON 44.22N 85.95W
10/13/2012 M1.12 INCH MANISTEE MI MESONET

12HR TOTAL THRU 5PM.


&&

$$

SWR

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KSJT [132120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 132120
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
419 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 10 WNW THROCKMORTON 33.23N 99.34W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH THROCKMORTON TX PUBLIC

HAIL WAS ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200255

$$

JOHNSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049

ACUS11 KWNS 132043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132042
TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 132042Z - 132215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS FAR...IT
SHOULD INCREASE AS ISOLATED TSTMS LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS AND
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM NWRN TX SWWD TO THE BIG BEND. SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH CELLS
ALONG THE PECOS/CROCKETT COUNTY BORDER AND IN REAGEN COUNTY
APPEARING TO HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOMING SUSTAINED.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING S OF VAL VERDE COUNTY ADJACENT
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CORRIDORS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS ONLY BEING GLANCED BY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SLIGHTLY IN AREA VWP DATA...THE
CONTINUED STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINING A
COUPLE OF STORMS. AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ISOLATED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32230101 32260054 31910012 31440004 31000025 30280044
29640020 28959987 28599986 28340002 28260021 29730229
30630230 32230101

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KGJT [132037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 132037
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
237 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM FLASH FLOOD ARCHES NP 38.62N 109.62W
10/13/2012 GRAND UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

SALT WASH IS RISING AND TRAPPING VEHICLES.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200500

$$

BK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 663

WWUS20 KWNS 132015
SEL3
SPC WW 132015
KSZ000-140300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 661...WW 662...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON IN
THE AREA NEAR PRATT...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND THE APPROACH OF A STRONG
MIDLEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN KS...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LOCAL
VWP/PROFILER OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT HODOGRAPHS ARE BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME...THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IN S CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE...CLUSTERS AND
LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH THE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...THOMPSON

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KSJT [131957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 131957
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
256 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 2 E ROCHESTER 33.32N 99.82W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH HASKELL TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH

0245 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E ROCHESTER 33.32N 99.82W
10/13/2012 E60 MPH HASKELL TX TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200253
EVENT NUMBER SJT1200254

$$

JOHNSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 131955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131955
OKZ000-TXZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661...

VALID 131955Z - 132130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS FROM SWRN OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. CONCERN IS ALSO
INCREASING OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
TSTMS IN S-CNTRL OK. WFO WW EXTENSION OR A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM
NEAR AVK TO BGS. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 80S
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO LIMIT A
MORE INTENSE THREAT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE.

ON/NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE WW...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED IN
S-CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER
WEST...STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL OK PROFILER
HAS YIELDED AROUND 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AMIDST A RICH PW AIR MASS OF
1.75 IN THE 18Z OUN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF A
TORNADO.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 36469852 36839791 36859735 36579692 35929630 35369589
34969570 34449564 34029609 33369794 32709896 32529954
32679995 32890015 33280005 34579931 36469852

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KILX [131955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 131955
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW DEWEY 40.35N 88.30W
10/13/2012 M1.52 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL COCORAHS

4-HOUR TOTAL


&&

$$

GEELHART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131953
SWODY1
SPC AC 131951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID AND LOWER MO
VALLEY SWWD INTO TX...

...MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK...WITH THE MAIN
CHANGES THIS FORECAST BEING A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD SWWD SHIFTING
OF THE PROBABILITIES. WHILE CLOUDS AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAVE
HINDERED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
-- I.E. INTO PARTS OF NEB/IA/IL AND VICINITY...MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS REMAIN FARTHER SW -- PARTICULARLY INTO THE OK/TX AREA.
HERE...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG/
HAS SUPPORTED A BAND OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN/WRN
OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX. WITH AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA REVEALING SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES REMAINS EVIDENT.
SOME SWWD EXPANSION OF THE HIGHER PROBABILITY LINES -- PARTICULARLY
THE 30% HAIL LINE -- HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED THIS FORECAST AS A RESULT
OF THESE TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE THREAT AREA TO SHIFT EWD WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM MAKES STEADY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

..GOSS.. 10/13/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

...SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMERGING OVER ERN CO/NM AS OF MID
MORNING...AND THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A MORE NEUTRAL TILT
AS IT PROGRESSES EWD OVER KS/OK THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN KS BY ABOUT 00Z...AND
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA OVERNIGHT. THE
WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND NWD SOME IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL KS BY THIS
EVENING.

ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL/N TX NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK TO ERN KS/WRN MO...WHICH
WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE STORMS. GIVEN THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME DESTABILIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL TX INTO ERN
OK...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM RISK WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
FARTHER TO THE W ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK AND CENTRAL KS. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THIS
AREA WHERE CLOUD BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION...WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME AS ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PHASES WITH LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE A LIKELY
CONVECTIVE MODE OUTCOME IN KS AS A RESULT OF LINEAR ASCENT AND
LARGELY FRONT-PARALLEL WINDS/SHEAR VECTORS. THE CROSS-FRONTAL SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGER IN OK/N TX...WHERE A MIXED MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS
AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS PROBABLE. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50
KT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 300 M2/S2 ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK...WITH CONVECTIVE MODE BEING THE PRIMARY
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE...THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE BANDS OF
FRONTAL CONVECTION SPREAD EWD.

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KILX [131928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 131928
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
228 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 N GREENVIEW 40.13N 89.74W
10/13/2012 M1.73 INCH MENARD IL MESONET

6-HOUR TOTAL. HADS REPORT

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW FARMER CITY 40.23N 88.66W
10/13/2012 M1.82 INCH DE WITT IL MESONET

SINCE 10 AM. HADS REPORT


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KAPX [131916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 131916
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW MCBAIN 44.17N 85.24W
10/13/2012 M1.57 INCH MISSAUKEE MI SPOTTER

12HR TOTAL THRU 3PM.


&&

$$

SWR

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KOUN [131909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 131909
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
209 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S ALTUS 34.59N 99.33W
10/13/2012 M58 MPH JACKSON OK MESONET

POWER LINES DOWN IN ALTUS. PART OF ATWOODS SIGN DAMAGED
IN ALTUS.


&&

$$

FM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047

ACUS11 KWNS 131900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131900
KSZ000-OKZ000-132030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131900Z - 132030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL KS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HR OR
TWO.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE LOW INTO FAR WRN OK. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THESE FALLS WILL FAVOR MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...CLEARING SKIES ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
CNTRL KS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS AIDING IN
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS /50-70 KT/
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TOWARD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING
CUMULUS OBSERVED IN LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37080036 37970041 39539912 39879690 39039630 37299749
36959874 37080036

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 662

WWUS20 KWNS 131839
SEL2
SPC WW 131839
TXZ000-140200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DEL
RIO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 661...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG SRN
EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT IN WRN TX AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
COAHUILA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
PRIMARY RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...GRAMS/THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2046

ACUS11 KWNS 131810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131810
TXZ000-131945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131810Z - 131945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT BY 20Z. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD
BE LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TRAILING PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT FROM HOWARD TO ERN BREWSTER COUNTIES. PRONOUNCED SURFACE
HEATING IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY AND A STRATOCU DECK
FARTHER E IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FARTHER N...THEY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32000140 32080031 31859957 31599954 30879980 29940037
29380100 29730237 30220237 31050196 32000140

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KILX [131757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 131757
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 E PETERSBURG 40.01N 89.70W
10/13/2012 M1.16 INCH MENARD IL MESONET

SINCE 930 AM. SWOP REPORT

1252 PM HEAVY RAIN ASTORIA 40.23N 90.36W
10/13/2012 M1.13 INCH FULTON IL MESONET

SWOP REPORT


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KILX [131754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 131754
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1254 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE LINCOLN 40.16N 89.33W
10/13/2012 M1.45 INCH LOGAN IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SINCE 9 AM


&&

$$

GEELHART

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KCYS [131747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 131747
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1147 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
10/13/2012 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

THIS IS SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO 1.
SNOWFALL 1.0 INCHS.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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KCYS [131743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131743
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1143 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 28 E SAVERY 41.02N 106.91W
10/13/2012 E2.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

THIS IS WHISKY PARK SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.2 RATIO 10 TO 1.
SNOWFALL 2.0 INCHES.

0800 AM SNOW 11 SSE ENCAMPMENT 41.06N 106.71W
10/13/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

THIS IS BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.3. RATIO 10
TO 1. SNOWFALL 3.0 INCES.

0800 AM SNOW 17 ENE RIVERSIDE 41.31N 106.48W
10/13/2012 E0.8 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

THIS IS SOUTH BRUSH CREEK SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 8
TO 1. SNOWFALL 0.8 INCHES.

0800 AM SNOW WNW CENTENNIAL 41.30N 106.11W
10/13/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS NORTH FRENCH CREEK SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10
TO 1. SNOWFALL 1.0 INCHES.

0800 AM SLEET 30 WNW LARAMIE 41.48N 106.12W
10/13/2012 E1.00 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

THIS IS SAND LAKE SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO 1.
SNOWFALL 1.0 INCHS.

0800 AM SNOW 7 NW CENTENNIAL 41.37N 106.21W
10/13/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS BROOKLIN LAKE SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO
1. SNOWFALL 1.0 INCHES.

0800 AM SNOW 6 SW CENTENNIAL 41.24N 106.19W
10/13/2012 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

THIS IS CINNABAR PARK SNOTEL SITE. SWE 0.1. RATIO 10 TO
1. SNOWFALL 1.0 INCHES.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER OH/MID
MS/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY IS
FORECAST WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS IL AND MI DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD --
RESULTING IN OVERALL MAINTENANCE OF THE LARGER-SCALE/EWD-MOVING
TROUGH. FARTHER W...FAST/LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHILE WEAK RIDGING AFFECTS THE
SWRN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY FORECAST INVOF SERN IA/NERN MO/NWRN
IL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SERN UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD ONTARIO. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BANDS OF CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM...ENDING FROM W-E WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

...MID AND LOWER OH/MID MS/TN VALLEYS...
SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...WITHIN AND N OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
SYSTEM. AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
MORNING...THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDWEST REGION. AS A RESULT...OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE HINDERED N OF THE OH RIVER DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. GREATER
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM KY/TN SWWD...BUT DECREASING
SHEAR WITH SWWD EXTENT WILL OFFSET THE GREATER INSTABILITY --
PARTICULARLY FROM ROUGHLY SRN AR SWWD. THUS...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- LIKELY TO BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH BANDS/LINES OF STRONGER STORMS -- IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM ROUGHLY SRN IL/SRN INDIANA/SWRN OH ACROSS KY
AND TN AND INTO NRN MS/ERN AR...AS CONVECTION REACHES A PEAK DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DURING THE EVENING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN KY/ERN TN
AND ADJACENT AREAS...THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL AIRMASS
STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 10/13/2012

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KABQ [131529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 131529
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
929 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.31W
10/12/2012 E0.75 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

0445 PM HAIL 12 S SANTA FE 35.50N 105.95W
10/12/2012 M0.88 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM HAIL 4 WSW GLORIETA 35.56N 105.84W
10/12/2012 M1.25 INCH SANTA FE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

RANCHEROS CAMPGROUND

0445 PM HAIL 4 NNW LAMY 35.54N 105.90W
10/12/2012 E0.88 INCH SANTA FE NM COCORAHS

0700 PM HAIL 8 ENE ELKINS 33.73N 103.93W
10/12/2012 M1.00 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE CLAYTON 36.46N 103.14W
10/12/2012 M62 MPH UNION NM ASOS

KCAO ASOS.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201313 ABQ1201314 ABQ1201315 ABQ1201316 ABQ1201317
ABQ1201318

$$

TRM

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KCYS [131509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131509
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
909 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW 30 SW LARAMIE 41.00N 105.99W
10/13/2012 E4.0 INCH ALBANY WY PUBLIC

THIS IS ALBANY LODGE IN THE SNOWY RANGE.


&&

$$

DDEAL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131254
SWODY1
SPC AC 131252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND MID MO VALLEY TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD ARE A SIGNIFICANT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK /12Z ABQ
SOUNDING SAMPLED 90-95 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE 500 MB/ WHICH WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK BY 14/00Z
BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS BY 14/12Z. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND
CONCOMITANT TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT OF
BROADER-SCALE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD
THE MID MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS BY 14/00Z
BEFORE SHIFTING NEWD INTO E-CNTRL IA BY 14/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SSWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS/WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND CNTRL TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
FRONT...PRECEDING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW...WILL PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL KS INTO WRN MO AND SWD INTO NRN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

AN APPARENT LOW-LATITUDE...LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER W-CNTRL TX IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE
ERN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS PERTURBATION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EARLY ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND N
TX AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION DEVELOPS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS COULD HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL...NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION LATER
TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. MOREOVER...DOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS UNCLEAR...FURTHER BREEDING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.

BASED ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY EARLY DAY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BASED AROUND 700
MB. HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
CERTAINTY THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK INTO NWRN TX AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. THE NRN BOUND OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY DEGREE TO WHICH THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER INTO KS.

MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT
SPREADING EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

SHOULD EARLY DAY STORM COVERAGE REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CNTRL OK
VALID LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GREATER SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THAN IS INDICATED BY CURRENT
TORNADO AND HAIL PROBABILITIES. TRENDS WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL/SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS...CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALIGN WITH MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.
SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT FROM W-CNTRL TX INTO WRN PORTIONS OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AS WELL AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NWRN MEXICO AS
REGION IS GLANCED BY STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
PASSING TO THE NORTH.

FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
DEEP...WLY SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 40-50 KT. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS STORMS COALESCE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS.

...MID/LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING FROM KS INTO IA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT LEADING THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...THE INFLUX OF A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH OF A NWD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF
500-MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT APPROACH. WHILE
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION OWING TO IMPACTS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...THE
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF
ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR WARRANT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE SLIGHT RISK.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 10/13/2012

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KCYS [131222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131222
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM SNOW SW HOG PARK RESERVOIR 41.03N 106.87W
10/13/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

WHISKEY PARK SNOTEL. ELEVATION 8950 FEET. SWE 0.3 INCHES
FROM 13/01 TO 13/04L. 10 TO 1 RATIO USED.

0400 AM SNOW 11 SSE ENCAMPMENT 41.06N 106.71W
10/13/2012 E3.0 INCH CARBON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

BLACKHALL MOUNTAIN SNOTEL. ELEVATION 9820 FEET. SWE 0.3
INCHES FROM 13/01L TO 13/04L. 10 TO 1 RATIO USED.


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KCYS [131153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131153
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
553 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N CENTENNIAL 41.34N 106.11W
10/13/2012 M53.00 MPH ALBANY WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

ROUTT PORTABLE RAWS SITE IN SNOWY RANGE. SUSTAINED AT 30
MPH.

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 25 E BAGGS 41.03N 107.18W
10/13/2012 E0.0 INCH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT WEBCAM AT MP 30 ON HIGHWAY 70 SHOWS VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW.VSBY ESTIMATED AT MAYBE 1/4 MILE.


&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KSGX [131111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 131111
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 AM WATER SPOUT SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
10/11/2012 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SAN CLEMENTE LIFEGUARDS REPORTED A WATER SPOUT OFF THE
COAST AROUND 810 AM THIS MORNING. THE WATER SPOUT REACHED
THE OCEAN SURFACE...PRODUCING SOME SPRAY.

1012 AM WATER SPOUT CARLSBAD 33.12N 117.29W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DISSIPATING WATER SPOUT ABOUT 200 YARDS OFF THE COAST OF
THE CARLSBAD POWER PLANT.

1030 AM HEAVY RAIN CAMP PENDLETON NORTH 33.31N 117.32W
10/11/2012 E0.00 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ON CAMP PENDLETON IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN...WITH
STREET FLOODING.

1035 AM WATER SPOUT SAN DIEGO 32.72N 117.16W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA AIRPLANE PILOT

NUMEROUS PILOT REPORTS OF WATER SPOUTS OFF THE COAST IN
THE VICINITY OF NORTH ISLAND.

1040 AM WATER SPOUT IMPERIAL BEACH 32.57N 117.12W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA AIRPLANE PILOT

NUMEROUS PILOT REPORTS OF WATER SPOUTS OFF THE COAST IN
THE VICINITY OF IMPERIAL BEACH.

1048 AM FUNNEL CLOUD BONSALL 33.28N 117.22W
10/11/2012 SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED OVER BONSALL THIS MORNING. VIEWING
LOCATION WAS HIGHWAY 76 AND MISSION ROAD LOOKING SOUTH.

0456 PM HEAVY RAIN FONTANA 34.10N 117.46W
10/11/2012 M1.02 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WAREHOUSE ROOF COLLAPSE ON 11000 BLOCK OF MULBERRY AVENUE
DUE TO ACCUMULATION OF OVER 1 FOOT OF WATER. DRAINS WERE
PLUGGED ALLOWING THE WATER TO ACCUMULATE.AN ALERT GAGE
APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES NORTH OF THE LOCATION, REPORTED
1.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN 25 MINUTES BETWEEN 445 AND 510PM
PDT. CENTRAL VALLEY FIRE STATION REPORTED 0.75 INCH
BETWEEN 450 AND 620 PM.

0500 PM FLOOD 6 NW RIVERSIDE 34.00N 117.47W
10/11/2012 RIVERSIDE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS FLOODED STREETS STRANDING MOTORISTS IN THEIR
VEHICLES IN THE JARUPA VALLEY AREA OF THE CITY OF
RIVERSIDE.

0500 PM FLOOD NORCO 33.93N 117.55W
10/11/2012 RIVERSIDE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TWO HOMES BETWEEN MT. RUSHMORE AND MT. SHASTA DRIVE
SUSTAINED WATER DAMAGE INSIDE THE RESIDENCES.EIGHT
ADDITIONAL RESIDENCES ON THE BLOCK SUSTAINED EXTERNAL
DAMAGE

0700 PM FLOOD COLTON 34.06N 117.32W
10/11/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING WAS OCCURING IN COLTON VALLEY BETWEEN HERMOSA
AND GRAND ROADS. ROADWAY IS CLOSED.

0925 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 SW HUNTINGTON BEACH 33.68N 118.02W
10/12/2012 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FOUR FUNNEL CLOUDS HANGING BELOW A LINE OF CLOUDS THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM 1 MILE WEST OF THE HUNTINGTON BEACH
PIER TO 9 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE HUNTINGTON BEACH
PIER.

0935 AM WATER SPOUT 6 WSW FOUNTAIN VALLEY 33.68N 118.04W
10/12/2012 PZZ655 CA AIRPLANE PILOT

WATERSPOUT REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT.

0940 AM WATER SPOUT LOS ALAMITOS 33.80N 118.06W
10/12/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS

LOS ALAMITOS SENT A SPECIAL AT 940 AM...REPORTING +FC IN
THE OBSERVATION AND A WATERSPOUT BEGAN AT 40 AFTER IN THE
REMARKS ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH.

0940 AM WATER SPOUT HUNTINGTON BEACH 33.69N 118.01W
10/12/2012 ORANGE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HUNTINGTON BEACH LIFEGUARDS CALLED TO SAY THAT TWO OF THE
WATER SPOUTS WERE TOUCHING THE OCEAN SURFACE...PRODUCING
SPRAY. IT APPEARS THAT ONE OF THESE WATER SPOUTS WAS
HEADING TOWARDS THE HUNTINGTON CLIFFS...AND MAY MOVE
INLAND.

1054 AM WATER SPOUT SANTA ANA 33.74N 117.88W
10/12/2012 ORANGE CA ASOS

JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT ASOS REPORTED +FC IN THEIR
OBSERVATIONS. REMARKS SAID TORNADO BEGAN AT 1754Z AND
ENDED AT 1808Z 5 SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT. TALKED TO THE
OBSERVER...HE SAID THAT IT WAS A WATER SPOUT OVER THE
OCEAN AND NOT A TORNADO. IT REACHED THE OCEAN SURFACE FOR
ROUGHLY TEN MINUTES PRODUCING SPRAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO
THE CLOUD AGAIN.

1122 AM WATER SPOUT SAN CLEMENTE 33.45N 117.61W
10/12/2012 ORANGE CA PUBLIC

WATER SPOUT OVER THE OCEAN OFF OF SAN CLEMENTE PIER. THE
WATER SPOUT IS CURRENTLY NOT REACHING THE OCEAN SURFACE.


&&

$$

JDANDR

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130856
SWOD48
SPC AC 130855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 AS A LONG FETCH OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE
MODELS BRING A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET SEWD INTO THE CNTRL STATES AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SCNTRL STATES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
AN AREA WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2012

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KDDC [130718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 130718
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 AM HAIL 3 S DODGE CITY 37.72N 100.01W
10/13/2012 E0.88 INCH FORD KS NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

BURKE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2044

ACUS11 KWNS 130706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130706
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-130830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130706Z - 130830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 09Z. AT THIS
TIME SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN OK AND SERN KS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE NRN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR
SUPPORTING 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ABOVE THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE SFC LAYER HAS COOLED AND
STABILIZED WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN NM WITHIN ERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS BAND
OF ASCENT TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR WITH TIME...WHICH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING STORMS IS NOT LIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...A
FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34860202 35410313 38029983 37569875 36399984 35100064
34860202

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130704
SWODY3
SPC AC 130703

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
GULF COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WRN CAROLINAS BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC...NC AND VA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW A LINE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS MOVING EWD TO THE COAST BY
EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUESDAY IN THE ERN
CAROLINAS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS COULD EXTEND AS
FAR NNEWD AS SRN MD AND NJ WHERE THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2012

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KTFX [130659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 130659
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1258 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
10/12/2012 M55 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

55 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [130646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 130646
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1246 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
10/12/2012 M74 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 74 MPH FROM 4 PM
UNTIL 11 PM. PEAK GUST OF 74 MPH OCCURRED AT 4 PM.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [130644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 130644
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1244 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
10/12/2012 M77 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

77 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130550
SWODY2
SPC AC 130548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS...

...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. A LINE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED IN
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH NEW CELLS
INITIATING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. WARMING SFC TEMPS AROUND MIDDAY
SHOULD ENABLE THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SFC-BASED. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE FURTHER TO THE EAST IN IND AND WCNTRL
KY ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THESE STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE MOVING ACROSS WRN OH...CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MONDAY NEAR PADUCAH AND MEMPHIS SHOW
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH 30 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CONVECTION BENEATH
THE TROUGH IN THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND -14C. FURTHER TO THE EAST IN THE CORRIDOR FROM CINCINNATI
TO NASHVILLE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DUE
TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE MODELS SUGGEST A
LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND MOVE INTO THE WRN APPALACHIAN MTNS SUNDAY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A LINE
DEVELOPS...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN IN AREAS TO THE
WEST SUGGESTING THE THREAT MAY BE MORE CONDITIONAL THERE.

...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...
THE SRN EXTENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
BENEATH THE TROUGH...A SSW TO NNE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE
MODELS FORECAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ON THE SWRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST IN NRN MS AND NRN LA SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH ABOUT
20 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT CONCENTRATED JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2012

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