MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 131955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131955
OKZ000-TXZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 661...

VALID 131955Z - 132130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 661 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BAND OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND CLUSTERS FROM SWRN OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE E/NEWD WITH AN INCREASING
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES. CONCERN IS ALSO
INCREASING OVER THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL
TSTMS IN S-CNTRL OK. WFO WW EXTENSION OR A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM
NEAR AVK TO BGS. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ALONG THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED THROUGH THE 80S
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF IT ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
ALTHOUGH STORM-SCALE INTERFERENCE/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO LIMIT A
MORE INTENSE THREAT...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE.

ON/NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE WW...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS INTENSIFIED IN
S-CNTRL OK. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT AS GREAT AS FARTHER
WEST...STRONG LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS SAMPLED IN THE PURCELL OK PROFILER
HAS YIELDED AROUND 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR AMIDST A RICH PW AIR MASS OF
1.75 IN THE 18Z OUN RAOB. THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OR TWO AND AN ATTENDANT RISK OF A
TORNADO.

..GRAMS.. 10/13/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 36469852 36839791 36859735 36579692 35929630 35369589
34969570 34449564 34029609 33369794 32709896 32529954
32679995 32890015 33280005 34579931 36469852

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