KTBW [180140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 180140
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
940 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 NW BONITA SPRINGS 26.40N 81.88W
09/17/2008 M58 MPH GMZ856 FL C-MAN STATION

50 KNOT WIND GUST AT BIG CARLOS PASS.

&&

$$

JILLSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180051
SWODY1
SPC AC 180048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN STATES...
ONE CONCENTRATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE WESTERN
COLORADO ROCKIES. FROM THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS GENERALLY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MUCH OF THE ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF MORE RAPID SURFACE COOLING BY
02-03Z...WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY DIMINISHING NOT LONG
THEREAFTER...AS FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAKENS/PROGRESSES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE MAY HAVE ALSO AIDED EARLIER CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH AND MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED.
HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ALREADY BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER...LIKELY DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AND...REMAINING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02-03Z...WITH THE ONSET OF MORE RAPID
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE LOWER COLORADO
VALLEY THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN...TO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN CASCADES...BENEATH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
AXIS...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SOME DESTABILIZATION AND AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/TROUGH OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
OREGON INTO NORTHWEST NEVADA.

...SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
LINGERED ALONG A POST-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...BENEATH A WEAK
CIRCULATION WITHIN A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS...AND MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
INLAND AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SEEM LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z...WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/
STABILIZATION...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO PROGRESS OFFSHORE.

..KERR.. 09/18/2008

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KSGX [180040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 180040
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
539 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM TORNADO 20 NE BIG BEAR CITY 34.43N 116.56W
09/17/2008 F0 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PHOTO TAKEN FROM LUCERNE VALLEY FIRE STATION LOOKING EAST
SHOWS LANDSPOUT TORNADO ON THE GROUND. OBSERVERS
ESTIMATED DURATION 3-5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

MMOEDE

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KVEF [172315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 172315
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
415 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM HAIL MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
09/17/2008 E0.25 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

A THUNDERSTORM DROPPED PEA SIZE HAIL THAT ACCUMULATED TO
A DEPTH OF A HALF OF AN INCH AT THE MOUNT CHARLESTON
CO-OP SITE.

1015 AM HEAVY RAIN MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
09/17/2008 M1.52 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

1.52 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES AT THE MOUNT
CHARLESTON CO-OP SITE.

0112 PM HEAVY RAIN JOSHUA TREE 34.13N 116.32W
09/17/2008 E0.30 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED URBAN ROAD FLOODING AT ROUTE 62
AND HALLEE ROAD IN JOSHUA TREE. THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
REPORTED 0.30 OF RAIN FELL IN JUST 10 MINUTES AT THE
WESTERN ENTRANCE TO JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 20 S AMBOY 34.28N 115.75W
09/17/2008 E0.40 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED 6 INCHES OF WATER WAS CROSSING AMBOY
ROAD BETWEEN AMBOY AND 29 PALMS.

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 S CAL NEV ARI 35.23N 114.89W
09/17/2008 E0.40 INCH CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT WASHES WERE RUNNING FULL
NEAR HIGHWAY 95 JUST NORTH OF THE NV STATE LINE.

&&
THIS IS A SUMMARY SO FAR OF EVENTS FROM TODAY'S THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOJAVE DESERT.
$$

STACHELSKI/FUI

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KJAX [172307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172307
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
707 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SW HIGH SPRINGS 29.78N 82.64W
09/17/2008 ALACHUA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

STATE WARNING POINT RELAYED A REPORT OF TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KSGX [172229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 172229
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
329 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM TORNADO 20 NE BIG BEAR CITY 34.43N 116.56W
09/17/2008 F0 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PHOTO TAKEN FROM LUCERNE VALLEY FIRE STATION LOOKING EAST
SHOWS TORNADO ON THE GROUND. OBSERVERS ESTIMATED DURATION
3-5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

RBALFO

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KSHV [172030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 172030
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM TORNADO 4 WNW MIDWAY 31.71N 92.22W
09/13/2008 LA SALLE LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN LA SALLE PARISH NORTHWEST
OF JENA NEAR HWY 84. NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED INCLUDING ONE ONTO A MOBILE HOME. THE PATH WAS
APPROXIMATELY 1.25 MILES LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE.

0120 PM TORNADO 4 NE OLLA 31.95N 92.19W
09/13/2008 CALDWELL LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN CALDWELL PARISH NORTHEAST
OF OLLA ALONG WHITE ROAD. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
SEVERAL POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ALONG WHITE ROAD. THE

PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES LONG AND 30 YARDS WIDE.

0148 PM TORNADO 12 NNW COLUMBIA 32.27N 92.16W
09/13/2008 CALDWELL LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN NORTHERN CALDWELL PARISH
NEAR THE OUACHITA RIVER ALONG LENARD ROAD. NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED IN A FIELD ALONG LENARD ROAD AND IN A
FORESTED AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TRACK. THE PATH WAS
APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE.

&&

$$

04

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171957
SWODY1
SPC AC 171954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...NRN STREAM PATTERN FEATURES ERN TROUGH AND WRN
RIDGE...WITH QUASISTATIONARY TROUGHING S OF RIDGE FROM GREAT BASIN
ESEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX TO MS DELTA REGION AND NERN GULF...NEWD
INTO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER GA AND FL PANHANDLE. GA/FL
SEGMENT OF TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD -- OFFSHORE GA AND SC BY END
OF PERIOD. TRAILING PORTION WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN
FL WHILE STILL LINKED TO CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE OVER NRN GULF.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER FAR
NRN CA -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS ORE AS UPPER LOW OVER NERN
PACIFIC MOVES EWD TOWARD REGION.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM SWRN QUE SWWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL LOWER MI AND SRN WI...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER
IA...THEN WARM FRONT WNWWD ACROSS SRN SD. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ESEWD ACROSS REMAINDER LH AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...MOVING OVER
NEW ENGLAND...PORTIONS MID-ATLANTIC AND MID-UPPER OH VALLEY BY
18/12Z. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER MI
PORTION OF THIS FRONT...LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE INDICATES TSTM POTENTIAL TOO
CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT
SHOULD DRIFT NWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PLAINS. SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS NRN FL...WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM OUTFLOW
PRODUCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION.

...FL...
SCATTERED/LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS FCST TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG AND
S OF FRONT...INCLUDING INVOF SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH FRONT.
STG-DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY WITH
BEST-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. EXPECT MLCAPES COMMONLY 1500-2000 J/KG
THROUGH AROUND 23Z IN RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AREAS AND AWAY FROM
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR GENERALLY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...ALTHOUGH SMALL AREA OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
30-35 KT OVER PORTIONS NRN FL MAY AID IN MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION.
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH COMBINED STABILIZING EFFECTS
OF OUTFLOW AND SFC DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS/KIS.. 09/17/2008

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KSHV [171917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 171917
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
214 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0821 AM TORNADO 10 W CHIRENO 31.48N 94.52W
09/13/2008 NACOGDOCHES TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A ROOF WAS RIPPED OFF OF A METAL OUTBUILDING AND
INSULATION WAS STREWN INTO TREES AND ON THE GROUND FOR
0.25 MILES. MINOR DAMAGE OCCURRED TO A TRAILER 0.12 MILE
SOUTHEAST NEAR WHERE THE EF0 TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN.
SEVERAL TREES WERE DAMAGED ABOUT 0.12 MILES NORTHWEST.
THE TOTAL PATH OF THIS TORNADO WAS 0.25 MILES LONG AND
APPROXIMATELY 75 YARDS WIDE.

1049 AM TORNADO 5 WNW DIXIE INN 32.61N 93.42W
09/13/2008 WEBSTER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL TREES WERE KNOCKED OVER AND A POWER POLE WAS
SNAPPED JUST EAST OF GOODWILL RD ALONG ELMO BURTON LOOP.
NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES WERE ALSO THROWN IN VARIOUS
DIRECTIONS. THE EF0 TORNADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 75 YARDS
WIDE AND .50 MILES LONG.

1216 PM TORNADO 9 S RUSTON 32.41N 92.61W
09/13/2008 JACKSON LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL JACKSON PARISH
NORTHEAST OF QUITMAN NEAR JOINER ROAD. THE TORNADO
TRACKED FOR APPROXIMATELY .75 MILES BEFORE LIFTING NEAR
MT. ZION ROAD. A FEW TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED
ALONG THE 40 YARD WIDE PATH.

1220 PM TORNADO 9 SSE RUSTON 32.41N 92.60W
09/13/2008 JACKSON LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL JACKSON PARISH
SOUTHEAST OF RUSTON ALONG RISER ROAD. THE TORNADO
TRACKED FOR APPROXIMATELY 3.1 MILES BEFORE LIFTING NEAR
THE LINCOLN COUNTY LINE ALONG RISER ROAD. SEVERAL TREES
WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG THE 50 YARD WIDE PATH.
LARGE BRANCHES WERE ALSO BROKEN ALONG THE TRACK.

1223 PM TORNADO 5 ESE GRAMBLING 32.49N 92.63W
09/13/2008 LINCOLN LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN LINCOLN PARISH JUST SOUTH
OF THE CITY LIMITS OF RUSTON. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES BEFORE LIFTING NEAR THE RUSTON
CITY LIMIT ALONG RISER ROAD. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED
AND UPROOTED ALONG THE 50 YARD WIDE PATH INCLUDING SOME
LARGE TREES.

1247 PM TORNADO 5 S BERNICE 32.76N 92.65W
09/13/2008 LINCOLN LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN LINCOLN PARISH NORTH OF
DUBACH NEAR HAYHOUSE RD. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED IN
A THICK FORESTED AREA ALONG HAYHOUSE ROAD ALONG A 40 YARD
WIDE PATH.

1253 PM TORNADO 1 W BERNICE 32.83N 92.68W
09/13/2008 UNION LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN UNION PARISH LA WEST OF
BERNICE NEAR BUSBY ROAD. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES. SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED IN A ALONG A 40 YARD WIDE PATH.

0208 PM TORNADO 4 W STERLINGTON 32.70N 92.13W
09/13/2008 UNION LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN UNION PARISH LA NORTHWEST
OF STERLINGTON NEAR SPENCER. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR
APPROXIMATELY 3.50 MILES. SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE
BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED. ONE LARGE TREE WAS KNOCKED OVER
ON AN OUTBUILDING ALONG ARKANSAS ROAD.

0247 PM TORNADO 6 N HUTTIG 33.12N 92.20W
09/13/2008 UNION AR NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN UNION COUNTY AR IN EAST OF
STRONG ALONG NORTH ROAD. SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE SNAPPED
OR UPROOTED IN THE SWAMP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROAD
ALONG A PATH OF APPROXIMATELY 0.25 MILES.

0318 PM TORNADO SSW HUTTIG 33.03N 92.18W
09/13/2008 UNION AR NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN UNION COUNTY AR IN THE
TOWN OF HUTTIG. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR APPROXIMATELY
0.50 MILES. SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED
AND A HOUSE IN HUTTIG AR SUSTAINED SOME ROOF DAMAGE.

0335 PM TORNADO 3 SW HALL SUMMIT 32.15N 93.34W
09/13/2008 RED RIVER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL TREES WERE SNAPPED AND KNOCKED OVER ALONG A
STRETCH ALONG STATE ROUTE 783 BETWEEN EDGEFIELD AND HALL
SUMMIT. THE PATH WAS EF0 DAMAGE ABOUT 40 YARDS WIDE AND
.25 MILES LONG.

0409 PM TORNADO 2 NW MINDEN 32.63N 93.30W
09/13/2008 WEBSTER LA NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 1.5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINDEN
LA JUST WEST OF THE MINDEN AIRPORT ALONG METHODIST CAMP
ROAD. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
BEFORE DISAPATING NEAR THE KISATCHIE NATIONAL FOREST. A
FEW TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES WERE SNAPPED AND DAMAGE
OCCURRED TO SOME POWER LINES ALONG THE 40 YARD WIDE PATH.

&&

$$

04

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KKEY [171836]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171836
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
236 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM WATER SPOUT 2 SW SUMMERLAND KEY 24.64N 81.47W
09/17/2008 GMZ054 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A WATERSPOUT WAS OBSERVED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS JUST SOUTH
OF CUDJOE KEY. DURATION 15 MINUTES. THE WATERSPOUT WAS
LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO A RAIN SHAFT.

1226 PM WATER SPOUT 4 E KEY WEST 24.57N 81.72W
09/17/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
OBSERVED A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD ABOUT 3 MILES EAST OF THE
AIRPORT...OR IN THE VICINITY OF BOCA CHICA CHANNEL.
DURATION 2 MINUTES.

1233 PM WATER SPOUT 2 S SUMMERLAND KEY 24.63N 81.45W
09/17/2008 GMZ054 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A MATURE WATERSPOUT WAS OBSERVED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTH OF SUMMERLAND KEY. DURATION AND MOVEMENT UNKNOWN.

1236 PM WATER SPOUT NNE BAY POINT 24.63N 81.59W
09/17/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED A WATERSPOUT OVER LOWER
SUGARLOAF CHANNEL SOUTH OF MILE MARKER 17. DURATION 2
MINUTES. THE WATERSPOUT APPARENTLY MOVED WESTWARD AND
MADE LANDFALL AS A WEAK TORNADO AT BAY POINT BEFORE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING.

1238 PM TORNADO NNE BAY POINT 24.63N 81.59W
09/17/2008 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

A WATERSPOUT MOVED WEST FROM LOWER SUGARLOAF CHANNEL TO
BAY POINT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER TURNING OVER POTTED
PLANTS AND TRASH CANS NEAR ONE HOME ON BAY DRIVE.

0126 PM WATER SPOUT 5 SSE BAY POINT 24.56N 81.57W
09/17/2008 GMZ054 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED A MATURE WATERSPOUT WITH A
SPRAY RING OVER HAWK CHANNEL...MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
DURATION 10 MINUTES.

&&
DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION INITIATED OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SHORTLY
AFTER 1200 PM EDT IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAKLY SHEARED EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. SEVERAL
WATERSPOUTS WERE REPORTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WITH ONE
APPARENTLY MAKING LANDFALL AS A WEAK TORNADO AT BAY POINT. NUMEROUS
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN DEVELOPED FROM SUGARLOAF
KEY TO KEY WEST...WITH OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN SOME
LOCATIONS CAUSING LOCAL PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND LOTS.
$$

KASPER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171709
SWODY2
SPC AC 171707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE THAT AT
PRESENT. RIDGING SHOULD EXTEND FROM OH VALLEY WNWWD TOWARD ID.
PERSISTENT/QUASISTATIONARY/DIFFUSE UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM CO SEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...MS...AND NERN
FL/SERN GA. WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH OVER SRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER W...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 43N138W -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NRN
CA/SRN ORE COAST. STG CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG LATEST OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND SREF MEMBERS WITH THIS LOW BEING JUST OFFSHORE NWRN CA
AT 19/12Z. ALTHOUGH NRN STREAM JET MAX SHOULD REMAIN N OF CANADIAN
BORDER...SRN STREAM UPPER JET -- WITH 55-65 KT FLOW AT 250 MB -- IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NERN MEX EWD ACROSS S TX AND NRN GULF...THEN
SEWD OVER SERN GULF.

AT SFC...PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SWD OVER NRN/CENTRAL FL THEN BECOME QUASISTATIONARY...WITH
WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/NERN GULF. SFC
COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NRN QUE SWWD ACROSS LH AND LOWER MI
AND CENTRAL IA -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS PERIOD...BECOMING DIFFUSE AMIDST BUILDING
SFC ANTICYCLONE AND NLY WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. BY
19/00Z...ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED INVOF SERN ONT/SWRN
QUE...WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGING SWWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL PRECLUDE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OVER MOST OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES NW OF FL/GULF
FRONTAL ZONE.

...SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AND S OF
FRONTAL ZONE. GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON AS STG
SFC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F OFFSET MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...TO YIELD MLCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG. STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN W OF THIS AREA ACROSS GULF...LIMITING
ORGANIZATION OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AND RESTRICTING SVR
POTENTIAL. SMALLER SCALE EFFECTS SUCH AS BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS MAY
YIELD ENHANCED/LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR STG GUSTS...BUT ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO WEAK/CONDITIONAL FOR PROBABILITIES AOA 5
PERCENT.

...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AMIDST STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND POCKETS OF AT LEAST MRGL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE EWD OVER
DAKOTAS AND NRN MN...BUT AIR MASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY/CAPPED TO
SUPPORT APPRECIABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL EXCEPT INVOF TRAILING PORTION
OF FRONT OVER N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS. WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER
MAY FOSTER LOCALIZED STG GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171613
SWODY1
SPC AC 171610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...
FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SECTIONS OF FL AHEAD OF WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SHIFTING EWD ACROSS FL/NRN GA...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SWD INTO NRN FL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SEASONABLY COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...ATOP ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S). LATE MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS EARLIER CLOUDS WILL NO LONGER BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR IN LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING...WHICH WILL BOOST MLCAPE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF FOCUSING MECHANISMS NEAR MAIN SURFACE
FRONT/SEA-BREEZES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS...PARAMETERS SHOULD
STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL FROM MORE INTENSE STORM CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...WESTERN STATES...
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AS REGION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD FOCUS RENEWED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AS AFTERNOON HEATING
STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND PRODUCES WEAK INSTABILITY.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 09/17/2008

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KPBZ [171556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 171556
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1155 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW CARNOT-MOON 40.48N 80.24W
09/14/2008 ALLEGHENY PA ASOS

52 MPH WIND GUST AT KPIT.

&&

$$

TPARRISH

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KCHS [171455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171455
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1055 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/17/2008 CHARLESTON SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

HIGH TIDE REACHED 7.10 FT MLLW AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS IN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON WHEN THE GAGE REACHES 7.0 FT MLLW.

&&

$$

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KCHS [171351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171351
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE YONGES ISLAND 32.67N 80.21W
09/16/2008 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

$$

REB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171254
SWODY1
SPC AC 171252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO SRN CANADA THIS
PERIOD...ALONG FRINGE OF LARGE/STRONG VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC/NRN
HUDSON BAY. TO THE SOUTH...WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE ERN GRT
BASIN AND RCKYS INTO THE LWR OH AND LWR MS VLYS. SATELLITE AND VWP
DATA SUGGEST THAT SRN PART OF WEAK TROUGH DRIFTING E ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS IS AMPLIFYING ATTM OVER AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO GA BY EVE...AND OFF THE GA/SC CST
EARLY THURSDAY.

...S GA/FL...
WEAK NE/SW FRONT NOW OVER SE GA/N FL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SETTLING
SLOWLY S ACROSS THE REGION AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGH CONTINUES
EWD. WEAK LOW TO MID LVL FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY STRONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND
...TO A LESSER EXTENT...ALONG THE FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AFTN STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEST LOW TO MID LVL FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AND ORGANIZATION...INCREASED UVV /MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE/ AND STRENGTHENING HIGH LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
BRIEFLY SVR WIND/HAIL. MOTION OF STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE DOMINATED BY
PROPAGATION AND...IF SO...THIS WOULD BE TOWARD THE SSW DESPITE WLY
MEAN FLOW.

...WRN CONUS...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS LWR CO VLY/FOUR
CORNERS REGION. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ON WRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE...SETUP WILL SUPPORT
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS. SOMEWHAT COOLER MID LVL TEMPERATURES
/-12 TO -14 C AT 500 MB/ WILL EXIST N OF WEAK ZONAL SRN STREAM JET
OVER AZ. THIS MAY ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO AN AREA OR TWO OF MORE
CONCENTRATED STORMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO ERN UT/WRN CO.
SPARSE MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/STORM
STRENGTH.

FARTHER NW...MID-LVL MOISTENING AND ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING TROUGH OVER NRN CA SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
HIGH-BASED TCU/CBS FROM SRN/ERN ORE INTO PARTS OF NV/ID.

...SRN GRT LK...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE IN STRONGER FLOW ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL MOVE SE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY AND LWR LKS BY
LATE IN THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY SPARK A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. BUT MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES...LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LOW.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170846
SWOD48
SPC AC 170846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THEREIN. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALL IN THE W...SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLNS STATES
WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD.

SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST PLUME ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS AFTER SUNDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS APT TO
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SPORADIC TSTM CHANCES.
ATTM...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SVR
THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170729
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE UPR AIR PATTERN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WELL N IN CANADA. WITHIN THE
STATES...CONVECTIVE INTERESTS WILL REVOLVE AROUND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
POLAR DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NWRN CONUS.

...NWRN CONUS...
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT ON TIMING...DEPTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE CA/ORE LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY HEIGHT
FALLS/LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH PARTS OF NV/NW UT AND
INTO ID FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE...PRIMARILY VIA
MID-LVL MOISTENING...BUT IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP TRACKING FARTHER
S...LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY BE MORE ROBUST NWD FROM THE LWR
CO RVR VLY. IF THAT OCCURS...ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND
REQUIRE ADDED SVR PROBABILITIES IN LATER FCSTS.

...LWR MS VLY...
INCREASING ESE LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUB-TROPICAL
IMPULSE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY REGION FRIDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT TSTMS AS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STRONG TSTMS MAY BE PSBL ALONG THE
LA CST WHERE STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES /MINUS 8-10C AT H5/ BECOME
COINCIDENT WITH RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND 50-60 KTS OF
H3-H25 FLOW. WILL AWAIT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPR TROUGH AND NOT COMMIT TO SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170553
SWODY2
SPC AC 170552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
HIGHEST AMPLITUDE/STRONGEST WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA ON THU WITH
A BENIGN UPR FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE STATES. SRN EXTENT OF AN ERN
CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH...MERELY A SHEAR AXIS/COLD TROUGH ALOFT...IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. INITIAL SURGE OF CP AIR THAT FOLLOWED IKE WILL MAKE IT
TO CNTRL FL BY THU AFTN. THE FRONT AND SEA/LAKE-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL BE FOCI FOR DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA THU
AFTN/EVE. TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER CNTRL/SRN FL AMIDST HIGHER PWAT
VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAIN PORTION OF A NEGATIVE-TILT UPR WAVE OVER NRN CA
TODAY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W ON THURSDAY WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AXIS. SRN PARTS OF THE SAME TROUGH...ALBEIT
MUCH WEAKER...WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT THE WRN UPR RIDGE...LIKELY
ENHANCING HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN GRT
BASIN AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES.

A POLAR WAVE EJECTING FROM AN ALASKAN UPR LOW WILL AMPLIFY OVER
YUKON AND DIG INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY CARRY THE LEE-TROUGH EWD INTO PARTS OF ND AND NW MN BY LATE
THU AFTN. PALTRY MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WEAK UPR
SUPPORT ARGUE AGAINST TSTMS ALONG MOST OF THE TROUGH DURING THE
AFTN/EVE. OVERNIGHT...A FEW ELEVATED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE PROBABLE IN
FROM ERN ND...NRN MN AND THE LKSUP AREA ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30-35 KT
SWLY LLJ TIED TO THE CANADIAN DISTURBANCE. HIGHER PROBABILITIES
WILL EXIST NORTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO.

..RACY.. 09/17/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170552
SWODY1
SPC AC 170549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAMS RESIDE ALONG 1) THE FAR SRN TIER OF THE U.S. AND
2) N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK
EWD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...WHILE DIFFUSE/POSITIVELY-TILTED SRN
PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN
CA AT 12Z TODAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW. A BROAD AND DIFFUSE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES
REACHING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BY END OF
PERIOD.

...SERN GA/NRN AND CENTRAL FL...
SURFACE FRONT RESIDING ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AT 12Z TODAY SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES S INTO NRN FL. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY SHOULD
INITIALLY BE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEN WITH
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST...WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS AND BENEATH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-8 TO -10
C AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM SRN GA SWD
ACROSS MUCH OF FL. ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK...STRONGER FLOW ABOVE 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
AND THE NEED FOR HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...WRN CONUS...
NWD MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SRN CA/LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MEANWHILE...COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 C AT
500 MB/ WITHIN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIABATIC
HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...BUT TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER NW...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRIMARILY
MID-LEVEL MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. PWAT VALUES AOB
0.50 INCH WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED TCU/CBS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
GENERALLY DRY LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE NRN GREAT
BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW.

...SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND SRN GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING
FROM 6-6.5 C/KM SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION...DEEP ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 09/17/2008

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