SWOD48
SPC AC 170846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2008
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
WHILE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
LONGER WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THEREIN. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALL IN THE W...SLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE PLNS STATES
WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD.
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST PLUME ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS AFTER SUNDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS APT TO
LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SPORADIC TSTM CHANCES.
ATTM...HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SVR
THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN.
..RACY.. 09/17/2008
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