DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180050
SWODY1
SPC AC 180049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY SPLIT FLOW
OVER ERN CONUS...WITH LARGE FETCH OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TO FL TO CAROLINAS. PRIMARY/ANCHORING CYCLONE -- CENTER OF
WHICH CURRENTLY IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE/RAOB/VWP DATA OVER NERN
GA/NWRN SC -- IS FCST TO DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR PRESENT LOCATION.
MEANWHILE...SECONDARY UPPER LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED INVOF FSM --
WILL PIVOT SSEWD TOWARD LA COAST AND EVOLVE INTO STG/OPEN-WAVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AT SFC...CYCLONE ALREADY EVIDENT OFFSHORE NRN FL SHOULD DEEPEN AND
MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD OVER ATLANTIC WATERS WELL OFFSHORE GA. RELATED
SFC FRONTS...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WAA CONVEYOR...AND ANY TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES...WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN BC AND JUST OFFSHORE ORE
COAST WILL MOVE ESEWD TO NRN MT AND ERN ORE/NERN CA
RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH 12Z. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY INVOF ZONE OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL DPVA
PRECEDING OR TROUGH...LACK OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ENOUGH TSTM THREAT TO KEEP ANY AOA 10% UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES OVER WRN CONUS.

..EDWARDS.. 03/18/2010

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KMPX [180039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 180039
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLOOD NORTH MANKATO 44.18N 94.03W
03/17/2010 NICOLLET MN EMERGENCY MNGR

COUNTY ROAD 71 JUST OUTSIDE OF TOWN CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

0300 PM FLOOD NEW GERMANY 44.88N 93.97W
03/17/2010 CARVER MN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING.

0300 PM FLOOD 3 WNW NEW MARKET 44.59N 93.41W
03/17/2010 SCOTT MN EMERGENCY MNGR

CEDAR LAKE TOWNSHIP ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO CREEK
FLOODING...NEWPORT AVE BETWEEN 230TH AND 240TH STREETS.

0300 PM FLOOD NEW ULM 44.31N 94.46W
03/17/2010 BROWN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MANY COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0300 PM FLOOD WATERTOWN 44.96N 93.85W
03/17/2010 CARVER MN EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING...INCLUDING AT THE 400
BLOCK OF MILL AVE AND THE INTERSECTION OF CTY RD 27 AND
LEWIS AVE.

0330 PM FLOOD 4 E MAPLETON 43.93N 93.87W
03/17/2010 BLUE EARTH MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

CTY ROAD 14 NEAR HIGHWAY 30 CLOSED. WATER HAZARD BETWEEN
MN 22 AND MN 83. NUMEROUS OTHER ROAD CLOSURES.

0330 PM FLOOD 1 S BUTTERFIELD 43.94N 94.79W
03/17/2010 WATONWAN MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

CTY ROAD 5 SOUTH OF BUTTERFIELD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0330 PM FLOOD 1 W LE CENTER 44.39N 93.75W
03/17/2010 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

CTY ROAD 113 CLOSED.

0330 PM FLOOD WINNEBAGO 43.77N 94.17W
03/17/2010 FARIBAULT MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTS OF CTY ROAD 14 WEST OF HIGHWAY 169 CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

0338 PM FLOOD 2 N LITTLE FALLS 46.00N 94.37W
03/17/2010 MORRISON MN EMERGENCY MNGR

HWY 10 BRIDGE CLOSED DUE TO ICE JAM. ICE TO THE TOP OF
THE BRIDGE.

0500 PM FLOOD HENDERSON 44.53N 93.91W
03/17/2010 SIBLEY MN EMERGENCY MNGR

MN 93 CLOSED FROM HENDERSON TO 169.

0500 PM FLOOD APPLETON 45.20N 96.02W
03/17/2010 SWIFT MN EMERGENCY MNGR

MN 12 CLOSED NEAR APPLETON DUE TO WATER ON THE ROAD.

0500 PM FLOOD KASOTA 44.29N 93.97W
03/17/2010 LE SUEUR MN EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD FLOODED FROM CTY ROAD 147 AND WEST JUNCTION WITH CTY
ROAD 102.

0500 PM FLOOD 1 S GRANITE FALLS 44.80N 95.54W
03/17/2010 YELLOW MEDICINE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

466TH STREET CLOSED AT 889 DUE TO FLOODING.

0500 PM FLOOD 2 SE MORTON 44.53N 94.96W
03/17/2010 RENVILLE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

CTY ROAD 21 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM THE MN RIVER.
A 500 FT ICE JAM IS JUST EAST OF THAT POINT. 11 OTHER
ROAD CLOSURES IN THE AREA.

0500 PM FLOOD ALBERT LEA 43.66N 93.37W
03/17/2010 FREEBORN MN EMERGENCY MNGR

US 65 SOUTHBOUND CLOSED BETWEEN MN 13 AND CTY ROAD 91 DUE
TO FLOODING.

&&

$$

LS

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KTFX [172304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 172304
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
504 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M56.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

56 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1029 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
03/17/2010 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
03/17/2010 M68.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

68 MPH WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

1137 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
03/17/2010 M57.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

1145 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 WNW CUT BANK 48.67N 112.59W
03/17/2010 M43.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

WIND GUST TO 43 MPH AT BLACKFEET AGRIMET

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M62.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

62 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 WSW CHOTEAU 47.77N 112.41W
03/17/2010 M40.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

1246 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
03/17/2010 M52.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
03/17/2010 M63.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

63 MPH WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

&&
THIS IS A SUMMARY OF WIND REPORTS COLLECTED FROM ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IN EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY FOR TODAYS HIGH WIND
WARNING.
$$

MPJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171930
SWODY1
SPC AC 171928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 03/17/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF WA STATE
AND INTO SWRN CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PAC NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SE TOWARD THE NRN GREAT
BASIN OVERNIGHT. FURTHER E ACROSS THE GULF COAST...UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ONCE OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM
WATERS...THIS LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WELL OFF THE NRN FL/GA AND CAROLINA
COASTS.

...NRN SIERRA NV MTNS AND FAR NWRN NV...

A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN CA TO NW NV INTO SW ID WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DEVELOPS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PAC NW. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE. MODEST TERRAIN INDUCED ASCENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA NV WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR WRN NV THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKS EWD.

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KTFX [171914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171914
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
114 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
03/17/2010 M52 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171911
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
111 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
03/17/2010 M63 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

63 MPH WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171910
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
110 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

62 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171833
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1233 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1029 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
03/17/2010 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171816
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1216 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 171815
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1215 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M56.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

56 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171813
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1213 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
03/17/2010 M56.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

56 MPH WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
03/17/2010 M68.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

68 MPH WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

1137 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
03/17/2010 M57.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171613
SWODY2
SPC AC 171612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST BC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TURN SEWD AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO DIG
ACROSS WA/ORE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SEWD ACROSS WY/UT/NV AS
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR NW/NRN PLAINS. AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT APPEARS SCATTERED
CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE
PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ZONE. THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AFTER DARK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
ACROSS CO INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ...PRIMARILY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTED BUOYANCY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 03/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171600
SWODY1
SPC AC 171558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF WA STATE
AND INTO SWRN CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PAC NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SE TOWARD THE NRN GREAT
BASIN OVERNIGHT. FURTHER E ACROSS THE GULF COAST...UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ONCE OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM
WATERS...THIS LOW WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WELL OFF THE NRN FL/GA AND CAROLINA
COASTS.

...NRN SIERRA NV MTNS AND FAR NWRN NV...

A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN CA TO NW NV INTO SW ID WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DEVELOPS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PAC NW. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE. MODEST TERRAIN INDUCED ASCENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA NV WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
FAR WRN NV THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKS EWD.

..STOPPKOTTE/HALES.. 03/17/2010

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KJAN [171554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 171554
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S DE KALB 32.70N 88.66W
03/10/2010 KEMPER MS CO-OP OBSERVER

A COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED THAT SEVERAL CREEKS JUST S
OF DEKALB WERE FLOODED OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THAT AREA
RECIEVED 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE OBSERVER MEASURED 3.28
INCHES.

&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171223
SWODY1
SPC AC 171221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROUGH. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING S-SW FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A
SECOND UPPER WAVE TRAILING SW FROM THE CANADIAN TROUGH ENTERING THE
PAC NW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS FL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THEN PROGRESS EWD
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...FOCUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO NRN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...

WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...DUE TO
FORCING ACCOMPANYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER CANADA REMAINING WELL N
OF THE REGION...AND WEAK WLY MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN MARGINAL
ASCENT ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SIERRA/S.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING/LOCAL TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE...WHICH WILL FAVOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /MAINLY
04-12Z/...A STRONGER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW.
STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE COMBINED
WITH LINGERING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION MAY RESULT IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ORE AND SWRN ID.

..GARNER/EVANS.. 03/17/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170853
SWOD48
SPC AC 170852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION BY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN TO A STRONGLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING A BIT LESS OF A CONCERN. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTENING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MID
50S+ F DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...EVEN IF THE FORCING DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE 17/00Z ECMWF. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL
EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...BUT IF THIS ECMWF RUN
COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE. BUT...THE SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
BECOMES QUITE LARGE.

..KERR.. 03/17/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170714
SWODY3
SPC AC 170713

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST...AND ANOTHER DIGGING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AND A STRONG DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
OZARK PLATEAU FRIDAY NIGHT.

A FAIRLY DEEP INITIAL SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...AS DOWNSTREAM SURFACE RIDGING RETREATS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROADENING BELT OF MODESTLY
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. HOWEVER...AN INITIALLY RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TAKE TIME TO
MODIFY...AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 55F
MAY NOT REACH MUCH BEYOND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.

THE LACK OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHIN AN EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THAT
MIGHT MORE TYPICALLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BUT...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
IF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DOES NOT ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOO MUCH FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING /TO AROUND 70F/ APPEARS LIKELY BENEATH A NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH A NARROW WEAK TONGUE OF MOISTENING
/PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .5 TO .75 INCHES...SFC DEW POINTS NEAR
50F/...CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY STILL LAG TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...BUT WEAKENING INHIBITION IN THE PEAK HEATING COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL FORCING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN MAY BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AS SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN A NARROW
EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EASTWARD...THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE FRONT
PERHAPS UNDERCUTS THE CONVECTION AND/OR ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS...INGESTING DRIER AIR.

...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS...
A SEPARATE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY...WITHIN A STRENGTHENING
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
FINALLY BEGINS TO SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
MAY BE AIDED BY A SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE ON THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...AND INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/17/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170450
SWODY2
SPC AC 170449

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND IN A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES...WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTWARD QUADRANT OF THE NATION...WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY/
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL
REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 55F WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE RATHER DRY AIR NOW PRESENT ACROSS MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...EVEN AS A 30-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS A LEE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BUT COOLING ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ARE PROGGED TO YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAXIMUM CAPE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG...AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170444
SWODY1
SPC AC 170442

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD OWING TO PROGRESSION OF ONE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS FL
AND THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND ANOTHER SEWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NW
COASTS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH
MEAN RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. IN ITS
WAKE...SEVERAL WEAK PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN
STATES FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.

...NRN GREAT BASIN INTO NRN SIERRA NEVADA RANGE...

TRAILING EXTENSION OF SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS SWD BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY LATER TODAY OVER SRN PARTS
OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU AND NRN GREAT BASIN. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED WITH PW VALUES AOB 0.50 INCH...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS
OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE MAY APPROACH
500 J/KG.

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC
MAY FOSTER ISOLATED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER 18/03-04Z OWING TO THE
COOLING AND STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 03/17/2010

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