SWOD48
SPC AC 170852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION BY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN TO A STRONGLY
SHEARED WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING A BIT LESS OF A CONCERN. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTENING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MID
50S+ F DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...EVEN IF THE FORCING DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS
CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE 17/00Z ECMWF. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL
EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...BUT IF THIS ECMWF RUN
COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE
AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE. BUT...THE SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
BECOMES QUITE LARGE.
..KERR.. 03/17/2010
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