KFFC [260208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 260208
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL TALLAPOOSA 33.75N 85.29W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH HARALSON GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL AT TALLAPOOSA IN
HARALSON COUNTY

&&

$$

CIW

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KFFC [260205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 260205
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1005 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 PM LIGHTNING CHAMBLEE 33.89N 84.30W
07/25/2007 DEKALB GA BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA REPORTED A HOUSE ON FIRE AT OAKLAND TRACE NEAR
OGLETHORPE UNIVERSITY DUE TO A LIGHTNING STRIKE

&&

$$

CIW

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KFGF [260200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 260200
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
900 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 2 SE ALSEN 48.61N 98.67W
07/25/2007 E1.00 INCH CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

KRAMLICH

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KSLC [260152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 260152
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
752 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL 10 E PARK CITY 40.66N 111.30W
07/25/2007 E1.00 INCH SUMMIT UT PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED FROM FEDEX DRIVER TO KUTV CHANNEL 2

0555 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NW SALT LAKE CITY 40.83N 112.01W
07/25/2007 E69.00 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

SALT AIR MESONET SITE NEAR INTERSTATE 80. ESTIMATED TIME.
GUSTS 53 MPH AT SLC ASOS AT 606 PM MDT.

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W GRANTSVILLE 40.59N 112.52W
07/25/2007 TOOELE UT OTHER FEDERAL

DEBRIS FLOW FROM KIMBELL BURN SCAR CROSSED STATE ROAD 186
WEST OF THE TOWN OF GRANTSVILLE. ROAD CLOSED BY FLOWING
MUD AND DEBRIS.

0630 PM TSTM WND GST SOUTH WEBER 41.13N 111.93W
07/25/2007 M73.00 MPH DAVIS UT TRAINED SPOTTER

PERSONAL WEATHER STATION

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD LEAMINGTON 39.53N 112.29W
07/25/2007 MILLARD UT TRAINED SPOTTER

DEBRIS FLOW IN LEAMINGTON DEVILS DEN BURN AREA IN
LEAMINGTON CANYON REPORTED BY SPOTTER. EVENT BETWEEN
LEAMINGTON AND OAK CITY.

&&

$$

ATARDY

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KFGF [260117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 260117
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
817 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 25 NE DEVILS LAKE 48.37N 98.49W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH RAMSEY ND PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND BRANCHES 8 INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN
OFF TREES.

&&

$$

KRAMLICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260101
SWODY1
SPC AC 260059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NWRN MN...ND AND NRN
SD...

..SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE PATTERN
ACROSS CONUS REMAINS DOMINATED BY SLOWLY RETROGRADING LOW INVOF NWRN
OH/SERN LOWER MI. TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS SWWD TO WEAKER UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER ERN COAHUILA NEAR TX/MEX BORDER. BOTH LOWS SHOULD
DRIFT ERRATICALLY THROUGH END OF PERIOD...AS WILL MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LOCATED INVOF NRN CO. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER
CENTRAL AB -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES THROUGH 26/12Z. MEANWHILE...WEAK/DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE NNEWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES
REGIONS.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM FAR NRN ONT SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL ND TO LOW OVER W-CENTRAL SD...THEN SWWD ACROSS SWRN SD AND
NRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO WY...BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER WY AMIDST
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. FRONT SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY DURING
REMAINDER PERIOD ALONG WY/NEB SEGMENT AND MOST OF SD PORTION...WHILE
GENERALLY DRIFTING EWD OVER ND AND EXTREME NWRN MN.

..NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED AND BECOME LOCALLY SVR INVOF FRONT OVER
SERN MB...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NERN ND. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
GUSTS AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS...SUPPORTED TO LARGE EXTENT BY FRONTAL FORCING AND
SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE TO SUPPORT MDTLY-STGLY
UNSTABLE SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PERSIST WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY 70S F OVER ND SUPPORTING
BLENDED WIND/HAIL THREAT...TRENDING SOMEWHAT MORE TOWARD WIND WITH
SWD EXTENT BEFORE ABOUT 04Z AS PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER ASSUMES
VERY HOT/DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
1579...AS WELL AS WW 552 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...FOR
MORE DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM SVR THREAT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SVR IS
POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER NEB PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES...ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO DIMINISH BOTH WITH SWWD
EXTENT ALONG FRONT...AND WITH TIME AS SFC DIABATIC COOLING REDUCES
BUOYANCY.

..INTERMOUNTAIN W...TO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SERN CA...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 06Z AS COMBINATION
OF SFC COOLING AND OUTFLOW AIR REDUCES AVAILABLE BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE
CELLS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.

..SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS ONLY SLOWLY COOLS...AND AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO FOCUS LIFT ON MESOBETA TO LOCAL SCALES. A
FEW STG-SVR DOWNBURSTS AND MRGL HAIL REPORTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY BEFORE ABOUT 03Z. THEREAFTER...SVR
POTENTIAL AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING.

.EDWARDS.. 07/26/2007

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KFFC [260101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 260101
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM TSTM WND DMG VININGS 33.86N 84.47W
07/25/2007 COBB GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC CALLED FROM VININGS ESTIMATING 55 MPH WINDS, 2
FULL TREES DOWN WITH MINOR LIMBS DOWN TOO

&&

$$

CIW

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KHUN [260042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 260042
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
741 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG ADAMSBURG 34.40N 85.67W
07/25/2007 DEKALB AL UTILITY COMPANY

POWERLINES DOWNED NEAR ADAMSBURG REPORTED BY POWER
COMPANY.

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG PRICEVILLE 34.52N 86.89W
07/25/2007 MORGAN AL UTILITY COMPANY

ELECTRIC COMPANY REPORTED POWERLINES DOWN BETWEEN
PRICEVILLE AND VALHERMOSO SPRINGS NEAR HIGHWAY 40.

0651 PM FLASH FLOOD HUNTSVILLE 34.73N 86.59W
07/25/2007 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS TO BE
COVERING THE ROAD OUTSIDE THE HUNTSVILLE HOSPITAL
EMERGENCY ROOM. ALSO...WATER COVERED THE ROAD AT THE
INTERSECTION OF PRATT AND CHURCH STREET.

0654 PM HAIL HUNTSVILLE 34.73N 86.59W
07/25/2007 E0.88 INCH MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON SOUTH WAS REPORTED ON SOUTH
MEMORIAL PARKWAY ON HOBBS ROAD.

0658 PM FLASH FLOOD HUNTSVILLE 34.73N 86.59W
07/25/2007 MADISON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

6 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED OVER THE ROAD ON WEATHERLY
ROAD ON SOUTH PARKWAY NEAR LOWES.

&&

$$

KWEBER

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KSLC [260032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 260032
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
632 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL 10 E PARK CITY 40.66N 111.30W
07/25/2007 E1.00 INCH SUMMIT UT PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED FROM FEDEX DRIVER TO KUTV CHANNEL 2

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W GRANTSVILLE 40.59N 112.52W
07/25/2007 TOOELE UT OTHER FEDERAL

DEBRIS FLOW FROM KIMBELL BURN SCAR CROSSED STATE ROAD 186
WEST OF THE TOWN OF GRANTSVILLE. ROAD CLOSED BY FLOWING
MUD AND DEBRIS.

0630 PM TSTM WND GST SOUTH WEBER 41.13N 111.93W
07/25/2007 M73.00 MPH DAVIS UT TRAINED SPOTTER

PERSONAL WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

ATARDY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1579

ACUS11 KWNS 260025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260024
NDZ000-SDZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260024Z - 260200Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A VERY HOT...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED TODAY OVER CNTRL SD
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 100-105F. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
ERN CORSON COUNTY SSWWD TO ERN ZIEBACH COUNTY IN SD OWING LARGELY TO
THE INTENSE DIABATIC HEATING AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.
RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER /UP TO
700 MB/ WITH DCAPES OF 1500-1900 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONG EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS.

FARTHER TO THE N INTO S-CNTRL ND...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTER
CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S. HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/.

.MEAD.. 07/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

44730122 45880076 46730015 47199954 46859891 45889979
45270006 44570066

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KSLC [260024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 260024
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
624 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W GRANTSVILLE 40.59N 112.52W
07/25/2007 TOOELE UT OTHER FEDERAL

DEBRIS FLOW FROM KIMBELL BURN SCAR CROSSED STATE ROAD 186
WEST OF THE TOWN OF GRANTSVILLE. ROAD CLOSED BY FLOWING
MUD AND DEBRIS.

&&

$$

MCINERNEY

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KFGF [260023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 260023
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
723 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM HAIL 5 SE STARKWEATHER 48.40N 98.80W
07/25/2007 E1.00 INCH RAMSEY ND TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AROUND 711 PM...ALSO VERY
HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

PJS

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KJAX [260023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 260023
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
822 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM FLOOD 1 NE DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.34N 81.64W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT 900 N MARKET ST.

0805 PM FLOOD 4 W DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.33N 81.72W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT 741 N EDGEWOOD AVE.

0805 PM FLOOD 2 W DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.33N 81.69W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF
CHEROKEE ST AND ROSSELLE ST.

0805 PM FLOOD 3 NNW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.37N 81.68W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR PKWY AND MYRTLE AVE.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KFGZ [260022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KFGZ 260022
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
521 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM FLASH FLOOD CHINO VALLEY 34.76N 112.46W
07/25/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER REED ROAD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF CHINO
VALLEY.

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD SEDONA 34.86N 111.79W
07/25/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 179 S. OF SEDONA BLOCKED DUE TO MUD...BOULDERS
...AND HIGH WATER. VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS.

&&

$$

TC

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KIWX [260020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 260020
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
820 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD ANGOLA 41.64N 85.00W
07/25/2007 STEUBEN IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER 1 FOOT DEEP ON SIDE ROADS IN THE CITY OF ANGOLA

&&

$$

BJS

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KPSR [260019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 260019
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
519 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1119 AM FLASH FLOOD WICKENBURG 33.97N 112.75W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES OVER WICKENBURG.

1240 PM FLASH FLOOD WICKENBURG 33.97N 112.75W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERE FLOODING IN WICKENBURG. VULTURE MINE ROAD AT SOLS
WASH CLOSED.

0122 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE TONOPAH 33.55N 112.87W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

1.14 INCHES RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

0133 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SW TONOPAH 33.46N 112.98W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

2.40 INCHES RAIN IN 1 HOUR

0206 PM FLASH FLOOD 15 NW GILA BEND 33.10N 112.87W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

1.33 INCHES RAIN IN 45 MINUTES AT CRUFF WASH

0207 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 S BUCKEYE 33.24N 112.60W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

1.18 INCHES RAIN IN 30 MINUTES

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD PHOENIX 33.54N 112.07W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

GLEANDALE AVE AND 23RD AVE FLOODED CURB TO CURB. VERY
SEVERE STREET FLOODING

0410 PM FLASH FLOOD MESA 33.42N 111.74W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

1.34 INCHES RAIN IN 30 MINUTES AT ELLIOT AND HAWES ROAD

0415 PM FLASH FLOOD QUEEN CREEK 33.24N 111.64W
07/25/2007 MARICOPA AZ MESONET

1.10 INCHES RAIN IN 35 MINUTES AT QUEEN CREEK ROAD GAUGE

&&

$$

KKINCAID

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KIWX [260019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 260019
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
818 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD LAKE JAMES 41.70N 85.05W
07/25/2007 STEUBEN IN PARK SERVICE

SOME CAMPSITES FLOODED...HAD TO DIG TRENCHES AROUND
CAMPSITES TO PREVENT MORE FLOODING

&&

$$

BJS

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KFGF [260018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 260018
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
718 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM HAIL 2 SE ALSEN 48.61N 98.67W
07/25/2007 E0.88 INCH CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

VGODON

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KFGF [260014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 260014
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
713 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 2 N STARKWEATHER 48.48N 98.88W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH RAMSEY ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

VGODON

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KJAX [260002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 260002
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
802 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM FLOOD 1 W DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.33N 81.67W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT I-95 AND I-10
INTERCHANGE.

0740 PM FLOOD 2 WSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONV 30.32N 81.69W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING ON ST JOHNS AVE
BETWEEN BARRS AND MARGARET.

0740 PM FLOOD 1 NW DOWNTOWN JACKSONVI 30.34N 81.67W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO STREET FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF
MYRTLE AVE AND BAY ST BENEATH I-95 OVERPASS.

0740 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE ARLINGTON 30.28N 81.58W
07/25/2007 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER LINE DOWN AT 7020 BEACH BLVD.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KREV [252353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 252353 CCA
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
424 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

CORRECTED SPELLING

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM HEAVY RAIN N MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.96W
07/25/2007 E2.00 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0409 PM FLASH FLOOD N MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.96W
07/25/2007 MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT OF WATER AND DEBRIS OVER ROAD AT MINARET ROAD
NEAR THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI VILLAGE. ADDITIONAL REPORT
OF BUILDING FLOODED AT THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI VILLAGE.

&&

$$

BRONG

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KEWX [252343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 252343
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 PM HEAVY RAIN CEDAR CREEK 30.08N 97.50W
07/25/2007 M3.20 INCH BASTROP TX CO-OP OBSERVER

FROM NOON TO 2 PM.

0431 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW GIDDINGS 30.17N 96.97W
07/25/2007 M1.99 INCH LEE TX UTILITY COMPANY

1 HOUR RAINFALL BETWEEN 324 PM THROUGH 424 PM

0444 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW MULDOON 29.78N 97.16W
07/25/2007 M2.28 INCH FAYETTE TX UTILITY COMPANY

1 HOUR RAINFALL BETWEEN 339 PM AND 439 PM

0515 PM HEAVY RAIN BASTROP 30.11N 97.31W
07/25/2007 M1.51 INCH BASTROP TX UTILITY COMPANY

30 MINUTE RAINFALL ENDING AT 509 PM

&&

$$

JPB

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KGSP [252339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 252339
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM HAIL 2 S TAYLORSVILLE 35.89N 81.18W
07/25/2007 E0.88 INCH ALEXANDER NC PUBLIC

A PUBLIC REPORT FROM CLANTON DRIVE OF HAIL UP TO NICKEL
SIZED FELL FOR ABOUT 3 MINUTES. THE WIND WAS A LITTLE
GUSTY BUT NOT BAD.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KPUB [252338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 252338
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
538 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL MAYSVILLE 38.54N 106.22W
07/25/2007 M0.75 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM HAIL MAYSVILLE 38.54N 106.22W
07/25/2007 M0.75 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL FROM 517 PM UNTIL 528 PM

&&

$$

KT

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KREV [252324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 252324
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
424 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM HEAVY RAIN N MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.96W
07/25/2007 E2.00 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0409 PM FLASH FLOOD N MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.96W
07/25/2007 MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT OF WATER AND DEBRIS OVER ROAD AT MINERETTE AVE
NEAR THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI VILLAGE. ADDITIONAL REPORT
OF BUILDING FLOODED AT THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI VILLAGE.

&&

$$

BRONG

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KMPX [252321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 252321
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
620 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
07/24/2007 E0.88 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0854 PM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
07/24/2007 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0858 PM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
07/24/2007 M1.00 INCH CHIPPEWA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL OCCURRING.

0900 PM HAIL 2 WSW MONTEVIDEO 44.94N 95.76W
07/24/2007 E1.50 INCH LAC QUI PARLE MN PUBLIC

1.5 INCH HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES.

0900 PM HAIL 2 SSW MONTEVIDEO 44.92N 95.73W
07/24/2007 E1.75 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN PUBLIC

HAILED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES. SOME CORN DAMAGE.

0902 PM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
07/24/2007 M1.75 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0915 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SW BOYD 44.85N 95.90W
07/24/2007 LAC QUI PARLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 PM HAIL 2 NW ST LEO 44.74N 96.08W
07/24/2007 E0.75 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO PICKED UP 2.6 INCHES RAIN.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [252318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 252318
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
618 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
07/24/2007 E0.88 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [252317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 252317
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
616 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL 2 WSW MONTEVIDEO 44.94N 95.76W
07/24/2007 E1.50 INCH LAC QUI PARLE MN PUBLIC

1.5 INCH HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES.

0900 PM HAIL 2 SSW MONTEVIDEO 44.92N 95.73W
07/24/2007 E1.75 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN PUBLIC

HAILED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES. SOME CORN DAMAGE.

0950 PM HAIL 2 NW ST LEO 44.74N 96.08W
07/24/2007 E0.75 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO PICKED UP 2.6 INCHES RAIN.

&&

$$

TDK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 552

WWUS20 KWNS 252316
SEL2
SPC WW 252316
MNZ000-NDZ000-260600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF ROSEAU MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED SRN MANITOBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING
E/SEWD INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

..HALES

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KFGZ [252303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 252303
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
402 PM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD SEDONA 34.86N 111.79W
07/25/2007 YAVAPAI AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 179 S. OF SEDONA BLOCKED DUE TO MUD...BOULDERS
...AND HIGH WATER. VEHICLES STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS.

&&

$$

TC

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KGSP [252301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 252301
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM HAIL 4 WNW MORGANTON 35.76N 81.76W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH BURKE NC PUBLIC

A PUBLIC REPORT OF THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL THAT
FELL FOR ABOUT FIVE MINUTES AT A LOCATION ON WATERMILL
ROAD ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OAK HILL.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KMRX [252257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 252257
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
657 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NW DUCKTOWN 35.14N 84.51W
07/25/2007 POLK TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON HWY 64 BETWEEN OCOEE AND DUCKTOWN.

&&

$$

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KHUN [252257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 252257
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
557 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM LIGHTNING ESTILL SPRINGS 35.26N 86.13W
07/25/2007 FRANKLIN TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

0328 PM HAIL COWAN 35.17N 86.02W
07/25/2007 E0.25 INCH FRANKLIN TN EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL.

0338 PM HAIL SEWANEE 35.20N 85.92W
07/25/2007 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0455 PM HAIL ROGERSVILLE 34.83N 87.29W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH LAUDERDALE AL POST OFFICE

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY POSTAL EMPLOYEE.

&&

$$

CBD

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KVEF [252257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 252257
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
357 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD NEEDLES 34.81N 114.61W
07/25/2007 SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROAD I40 FROM NEEDLES TO LAUGHLIN. WASHES
ALONG US HWY 95 N AND S RUNNING HIGH.

&&

$$

81

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KREV [252257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 252257
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
356 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM FLASH FLOOD MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
07/25/2007 MONO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF
MAMMOTH LAKES.

0352 PM FLASH FLOOD MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
07/25/2007 MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER INSIDE BUILDINGS AT THE MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI
VILLAGE. MAIN STREET IS ALSO FLOODED. RAINFALL AMOUNT OF
2.06 INCHES SINCE 2 PM.

&&

$$

BRONG

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KBMX [252252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 252252
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM HAIL 2 S HARPERSVILLE 33.31N 86.43W
07/25/2007 E0.50 INCH SHELBY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED NEAR HIGHWAY 25.

0544 PM HAIL CHILDERSBURG 33.28N 86.35W
07/25/2007 E0.25 INCH TALLADEGA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

SUNGER

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KSLC [252226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 252226
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
426 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL 10 E PARK CITY 40.66N 111.30W
07/25/2007 E1.00 INCH SUMMIT UT PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED FROM FEDEX DRIVER TO KUTV CHANNEL 2

&&

$$

ATARDY

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KEWX [252218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 252218
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
517 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HEAVY RAIN BASTROP 30.11N 97.31W
07/25/2007 M1.51 INCH BASTROP TX UTILITY COMPANY

30 MINUTE RAINFALL ENDING AT 509 PM

&&

$$

JPB

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KLWX [252213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 252213
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
613 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM TSTM WND DMG CUMBERLAND 39.65N 78.76W
07/25/2007 ALLEGANY MD EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1578

ACUS11 KWNS 252207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252206
MNZ000-NDZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND INTO NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252206Z - 252330Z

STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 22-00Z WITH
A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE LOW NEAR WINNIPEG WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD TO JUST W OF DVL TO NEAR BIS.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR SURFACE
LOW INVOF WINNIPEG WITH A WEAK ECHO DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT IN ERN
TOWNER CO ND AS OF 2145Z. A COUPLE WELL DEFINED HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS /HCRS/ ARE BEING OBSERVED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR BETWEEN JMS AND FAR...ONE OF WHICH LIKELY INTERSECTS FRONT
OVER CAVALIER COUNTY IN FAR NERN ND. THESE INTERSECTION POINTS MAY
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO THE CO-LOCATION OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. REGIONAL
VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR RESIDES ACROSS
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER WRN ND WITH GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL ACROSS PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.

WHILE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE REMAINS QUITE WARM...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED. ADDITIONALLY...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
RELATIVELY STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE...SOME THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

.MEAD.. 07/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

49009848 49019573 48319598 47669651 47129778 47249903
47839972

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KEWX [252145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 252145
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
445 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW MULDOON 29.78N 97.16W
07/25/2007 M2.28 INCH FAYETTE TX UTILITY COMPANY

1 HOUR RAINFALL BETWEEN 339 PM AND 439 PM

&&

$$

JPB

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KPUB [252145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 252145
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
07/25/2007 M0.88 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ONGOING AT 342 PM.

&&

$$

JKH

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KFFC [252142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 252142
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM HAIL 3 NW TRENTON 34.91N 85.55W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH DADE GA PUBLIC

ON HARTLINE ROAD

&&

$$

HANDEL

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KOHX [252141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 252141
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
441 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM HAIL 7 SE SMITHVILLE 35.89N 85.73W
07/25/2007 E0.75 INCH DEKALB TN PUBLIC

&&

$$

STEIGERWALDT

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KMRX [252133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 252133
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
532 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0446 PM TSTM WND DMG SODDY-DAISY 35.26N 85.17W
07/25/2007 HAMILTON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS RAIL ROAD TRACK IN SODDY-DAISY. REPORTED
BY POLICE DEPT.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG SIGNAL MOUNTAIN 35.13N 85.34W
07/25/2007 HAMILTON TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN SIGNAL MOUNTAIN. REPORTED
BY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG JASPER 35.06N 85.63W
07/25/2007 MARION TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.

&&

$$

MEP

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KEWX [252133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 252133
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
432 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW GIDDINGS 30.17N 96.97W
07/25/2007 M1.99 INCH LEE TX UTILITY COMPANY

1 HOUR RAINFALL BETWEEN 324 PM THROUGH 424 PM

&&

$$

JPB

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KTBW [252121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 252121
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
520 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TORNADO S MASARYKTOWN 28.43N 82.46W
07/25/2007 HERNANDO FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGMENT RECEIVED A FEW CALLS FROM THE PUBLIC
THAT A SMALL AND SHORT LIVED TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG
US HWY 41 JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY LINE WITH A COUPLE OF
TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

DAVIS

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KVEF [252118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 252118
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
218 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM FLASH FLOOD NEW KINGMAN-BUTLER 35.26N 114.03W
07/25/2007 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ROAD IMPASSIBLE ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON STOCKENHILLS
RD DUE TO DEBREE BEING WASHED ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

$$

81

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KGRR [252117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252117
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
517 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM FLOOD TEKONSHA 42.09N 84.99W
07/25/2007 CALHOUN MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR ROAD FLOODING REPORTED AROUND TEKONSHA.

&&

$$

IOD

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KMRX [252113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 252113
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
513 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM TSTM WND GST DANDRIDGE 36.02N 83.42W
07/25/2007 M63 MPH JEFFERSON TN AMATEUR RADIO

SPOTTER REPORTS 3 TREES DOWN, PENNY SIZE HAIL, AND
MEASURED WIND SPEED OF 63 MPH, AT HIS HOME ON CHEROKEE
DRIVE.

&&

$$

MEP

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KCLE [251107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 251107
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
707 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 1 N MEDINA 41.15N 81.87W
07/24/2007 E0.75 INCH MEDINA OH PUBLIC

&&

$$

KIELTYKA

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KTWC [251025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 251025
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
325 AM MST WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD SAFFORD 32.83N 109.70W
07/24/2007 GRAHAM AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED AT WATSON CANAL...KELLEY
CANAL...AND NORTH OF THE GILA RIVER/PIMA BRIDGE.

&&

$$

PYTLAK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250900
SWOD48
SPC AC 250859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

..SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES SATURDAY...SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY...

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN POLAR TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLIFICATION IN WEAKER TROUGHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST...AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES DIG WITHIN WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. AND...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES PLATEAU REGION...ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE NATION.

THEREAFTER...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES AGAIN BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
SHIFT NORTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED. THESE EVENTS
WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES PROGRESSING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE...PERHAPS
THROUGH A WEAKER CYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF STATES. AND...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS
EXTENDED RANGE IS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK AREAS.

.KERR.. 07/25/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250730
SWODY3
SPC AC 250728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVE FROM THE LWR MO
VALLEY INTO THE LWR OH VALLEY....

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SIGNIFICANT
POLAR TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.
WHILE STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES...MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AND...MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ONE OR MORE IMPULSES...EMANATING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WEAKENING
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE...INTO THIS REGIME...OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

..LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE
PLAINS...AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CANADIAN TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
FRIDAY. OVERSPREADING A PRE-FRONTAL TONGUE OF 70F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED LAYER
CAPE AT OR ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AND...MID/UPPER FORCING MAY WEAKEN
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ONE OR MORE ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY
EVOLVE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...20-30 KT MEAN LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...AND COULD
ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

.KERR.. 07/25/2007

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KOHX [250619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 250619
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
119 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W COOKEVILLE 36.16N 85.60W
07/24/2007 PUTNAM TN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ACROSS WESTERN PART OF COUNTY

&&

$$

JCOHEN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250545
SWODY2
SPC AC 250544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE
MID MO VALLEY INTO THE UPR MS VLY....

..SYNOPSIS..
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER LATITUDES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERALLY ZONAL BELT EXTENDING
ACROSS CANADA. BUT...MODELS INDICATE THAT...AS ONE OF THESE
IMPULSES REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BREAK DOWN BY EARLY
THURSDAY...AND THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING LIKELY WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. IN BETWEEN...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OR ELONGATED
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU.

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
A FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
/MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
HOT...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE.

THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA/
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70F. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED
LAYER CAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG BY OR SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.
AND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH FRONTAL FORCING...PERHAPS WEAK MID/UPPER
FORCING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY EVENING. THOUGH WIND
FIELDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS/DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHER SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN A MORE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN
ADDITIONAL SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY A WEAKENING
IMPULSE...NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY.

..SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK. BUT...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR AT LEAST SLOW PROPAGATION
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
THURSDAY. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE LIFTING NORTHWEST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA...IS STILL IN QUESTION. BUT...ENOUGH HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A RISK FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...
GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...ENOUGH HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT WEAK TO...PERHAPS...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACCELERATING CLOSED LOW. 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...AND
SOME RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.KERR.. 07/25/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250537
SWODY1
SPC AC 250534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN SD/MUCH OF ND...

..SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS WRN U.S. RIDGE IS FURTHER SUPPRESSED BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE WRN HALF OF CANADA...AND THE LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION RETROGRADES A BIT FURTHER W.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG AND E OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE SRN CONUS.

..NRN PLAINS...
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BENEATH PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. EVENTUALLY...COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD
EXPAND SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS SLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.

WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW FORECAST FROM ERN WY NEWD ACROSS SD
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION. THUS -- WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK/15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM NWRN SD INTO ND.

..OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION...AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON SRN FRINGE OF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL. WHILE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS -- AIDED
BY 20 TO 30 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW -- MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..THE SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION CONTRIBUTES TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE WEAK FLOW
SUGGESTS LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LARGER
SCALE...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.GOSS/LEVIT.. 07/25/2007

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