KLWX [272216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272216
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 1 S WOODSTOCK 38.86N 78.52W
09/27/2012 E1.50 INCH SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201331

$$

CJL

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KPBZ [272211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 272211
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
611 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST MIFFLIN 40.36N 79.87W
09/27/2012 ALLEGHENY PA MEDIA

POWER POLE KNOCKED DOWN


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201047

$$

RG

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KPBZ [272157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 272157
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
557 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TORNADO EIGHTY FOUR 40.18N 80.13W
09/27/2012 WASHINGTON PA 911 CALL CENTER

SHED KNOCKED OVER AND A CAR WAS PUSHED TO THE SIDE


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201046

$$

RG

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KPBZ [272155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 272155
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
555 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD PITTSBURGH 40.44N 79.98W
09/27/2012 ALLEGHENY PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

FLOODING REPORTED IN CLARION...WILKINS TOWNSHIP...AND
BALDWIN WHERE A RESCUE WAS PERFORMED ON STREETS RUN ROAD


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201045

$$

15

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KPBZ [272154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 272154
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
554 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW CARNOT-MOON 40.53N 80.22W
09/27/2012 M1.18 INCH ALLEGHENY PA NWS OFFICE

1.18 SINCE 2PM


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201044

$$

RG

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KLWX [272147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272147
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
547 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 2 NNW BRUCETOWN 39.28N 78.08W
09/27/2012 E0.75 INCH FREDERICK VA BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201330

$$

CJL

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KLWX [272126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272126
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
526 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 1 SSW DILBECK 38.88N 78.38W
09/27/2012 E0.75 INCH SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201329

$$

CJL

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KLWX [272122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272122
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
522 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL 2 S MATHIAS 38.85N 78.87W
09/27/2012 M1.75 INCH HARDY WV TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201328

$$

SMZ

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KLZK [272114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 272114
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
414 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0409 PM HAIL BATESVILLE 35.77N 91.62W
09/27/2012 E1.00 INCH INDEPENDENCE AR PUBLIC

REPORT RELAYED THROUGH LOCAL MEDIA.


&&

$$

44

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KLWX [272109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272109
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
509 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM HAIL 1 NE EDINBURG 38.83N 78.56W
09/27/2012 E0.75 INCH SHENANDOAH VA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201327

$$

CJL

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KPBZ [272103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 272103
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
503 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TORNADO EIGHTY FOUR 40.18N 80.13W
09/27/2012 WASHINGTON PA MEDIA

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR EIGHTY FOUR CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201043

$$

RG

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KLWX [272059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272059
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
458 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 1 SE HARMONY 38.86N 78.58W
09/27/2012 E0.88 INCH SHENANDOAH VA PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201326

$$

CJL

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KLWX [272053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272053
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
452 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 1 WNW EDINBURG 38.83N 78.58W
09/27/2012 E0.88 INCH SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201325

$$

CJL

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KLWX [272050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 272050
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
450 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 1 SSE HARMONY 38.86N 78.59W
09/27/2012 E0.75 INCH SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201324

$$

CJL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1999

ACUS11 KWNS 272010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272009
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW/W-CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272009Z - 272115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...A COUPLE TORNADOES/LANDSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF TSTMS BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NW/W-CNTRL NM NWD INTO ERN
CO WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR TO TWO. 19Z MESOANALYSIS REVEALS THAT LITTLE
TO NO MLCINH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND MLCAPE IS NEAR 500 J/KG.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BASAL PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW
HAS HELPED INCREASE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOW-END SEVERE
HAIL.

ALSO OF NOTE IS AN AREA THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY /A RESULT
OF THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS/ AMONGST
MODESTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE IN CO. AS A RESULT...A FEW TORNADOES/LANDSPOUTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PRECLUDES HIGHER
WATCH PROBABILITIES BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
WW.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37780492 39000490 39710504 40350498 40900423 40710205
39660175 37440202 36590219 34830267 33940424 35130546
37780492

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KBOU [271950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 271950
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
150 PM MDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM TORNADO 8 E LARKSPUR 39.18N 104.75W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD NEAR GREENLAND RD AND HWY
83. LOCATION ESTIMATED. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. NUMEROUS
FUNNELS IN VICINITY.


&&

$$

WFO BOU

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271948
SWODY1
SPC AC 271946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

A COUPLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS UPDATE. THE
FIRST IS TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE HIGH PLAINS NWWD. THE
SLIGHT RISK INCLUDING THE 15 PERCENT WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES NOW
EXTEND AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE SERN DENVER METRO AREA WHERE SEVERE
STORMS ARE ONGOING NEARBY. THE SECOND CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO
ADD A 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY CONTOUR IN ECNTRL CO WHERE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO/LANDSPOUT THREAT CURRENTLY EXISTS. FUNNELS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN THE CELLS WEST OF LIMON CO AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY-1
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY THE POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...AND A LOWER-LATITUDE BRANCH OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN
THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A COUPLE OF MORE SALIENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST WILL TRANSLATE FROM
THE MID/UPPER-OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE OTHER IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SHEAR
SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WAS ANALYZED OVER SWRN OH AS OF 15Z.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT...REACHING ERN PA/MD BY 28/12Z. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OZARKS WITH
WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY OBSCURED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE WWD/NWWD
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO ERN PARTS OF
CO/NM WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE COMMONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. THIS
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN EML WHICH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO CO
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
VIGOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THAT ON WED...THOUGH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND A 30-40 KT BULK WIND DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ARE
STILL EXPECTED. AS SUCH...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES AND A SMALL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE REGION BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED ENHANCEMENT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BY ABOVE-MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT AREA
SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL ALIGN WITH 25-30 KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING...

ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE TODAY ALONG/S OF COMPOSITE
SYNOPTIC FRONT-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
MOIST...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED COMPARED TO PAST
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AGGREGATE COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

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KEAX [271939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 271939
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM FUNNEL CLOUD N CLINTON 38.37N 93.78W
09/27/2012 HENRY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0230 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BALLARD 38.36N 94.14W
09/27/2012 BATES MO LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

LAFLIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1998

ACUS11 KWNS 271918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271918
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271918Z - 272115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NRN VA
THROUGH NRN MD AND EXTREME SRN PA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MULTICELLS
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A
WW.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM
SRN NJ WWD TO NRN MD...CNTRL OH AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND
EAST OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DEEPER
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT MAX ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NWRN VA. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE WARM SECTOR...POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS REGION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT MODEST 30
KT WLY FLOW ALOFT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB 35 KT. SHEAR/INSTABILITY
PARAMETER SPACE MAY PROMOTE A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELL STORMS THAT
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 09/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39727788 39927695 39667637 38897670 38367750 38287838
38637861 39727788

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1997

ACUS11 KWNS 271917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271917
TXZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271917Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES SWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AND A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ON A SWD/SEWD
PROGRESSING COLD POOL /DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT ON THE MD GRAPHIC/
ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND WRN N TX. THIS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SWD/SEWD
PROGRESSION GRADUALLY SLOWS. ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED 850 MB SLY FLOW AND ML MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 15 G/KG...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPWIND PROPAGATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR WITH SOME
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM BASED ON
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ DO EXIST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
MAF 12Z RAOB DID SHOW MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO THE SEVERE
THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE TSTM ORGANIZATION AND KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW. AS SUCH...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 09/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31950279 32280244 32690165 32890003 33099912 33199873
33099814 32529808 31409880 31140312 31950279

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KAMA [271831]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 271831
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
130 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 13 N EVA 36.99N 101.90W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0825 PM HAIL HOUGH 36.87N 101.57W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

0839 PM HAIL 6 E HOUGH 36.87N 101.46W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.

0855 PM HAIL 4 W HOOKER 36.86N 101.28W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0912 PM HAIL GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 PM HAIL 1 N GUYMON 36.70N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0914 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0918 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 WSW PERRYTON 36.33N 100.99W
09/26/2012 OCHILTREE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN AND IRRIGATION SPRINKLER SYSTEM
KNOCKED OVER. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

1008 PM HAIL 2 NW FARNSWORTH 36.34N 100.99W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH OCHILTREE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED QUARTER SIZE TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

1020 PM HAIL 2 NNW BOOKER 36.48N 100.55W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED

1030 PM HAIL FARNSWORTH 36.32N 100.97W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC

1030 PM TSTM WND GST FARNSWORTH 36.32N 100.97W
09/26/2012 E60 MPH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200684 AMA1200685 AMA1200686 AMA1200687 AMA1200688
AMA1200692 AMA1200689 AMA1200690 AMA1200693 AMA1200691 AMA1200698
AMA1200694 AMA1200697 AMA1200695 AMA1200696

$$

JACKSON

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KAMA [271830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 271830
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
130 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 WSW PERRYTON 36.33N 100.99W
09/26/2012 OCHILTREE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN AND IRRIGATION SPRINKLER SYSTEM
KNOCKED OVER. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200698

$$

JACKSON

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KLUB [271735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 271735
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM FLASH FLOOD CAPROCK CANYON ST. PARK 34.45N 101.07W
09/26/2012 BRISCOE TX PARK SERVICE

ASPHALT ROAD DAMAGED WITH DEBRIS SCATTERED OVER THE
ROAD. 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1200389

$$

CWA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271720
SWODY2
SPC AC 271718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A
SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD FRIDAY BEING
POSITIONED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL OK AND INTO WRN
AR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FRIDAY...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER ON WHERE THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE.
THE NAM FAVORS THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS HAVING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
SCENARIOS SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OK WHERE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT
00Z/SAT SHOW MLCAPE OF 750 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 15 TO 20 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WHERE SFC
HEATING AND THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY BECOMES THE GREATEST.
CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE THE STEEPEST AT
LOW-LEVELS...WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE FAVORED THREAT ESPECIALLY IF AN
MCS CAN DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM.
HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE A BIT STEEPER AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT COLDER.

..MID-ATLANTIC/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
A BROAD-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND SOME MODELS DEVELOP A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NEW YORK
CITY AREA SWWD ACROSS SE VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 25 KT OR LESS SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
UNORGANIZED.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2012

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KMAF [271642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 271642
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL COYANOSA 31.24N 103.07W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH PECOS TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN COYANOSA


&&

$$

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KMAF [271640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 271640
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1140 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL GARDENDALE 32.02N 102.37W
09/26/2012 E2.00 INCH ECTOR TX POST OFFICE

GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG-SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR GARDENDALE
POST OFFICE


&&

$$

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KAMA [271636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 271636
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1134 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 13 N EVA 36.99N 101.90W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0825 PM HAIL HOUGH 36.87N 101.57W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

0839 PM HAIL 6 E HOUGH 36.87N 101.46W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.

0855 PM HAIL 4 W HOOKER 36.86N 101.28W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0912 PM HAIL GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 PM HAIL 1 N GUYMON 36.70N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0914 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0918 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

1008 PM HAIL 2 NW FARNSWORTH 36.34N 100.99W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH OCHILTREE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED QUARTER SIZE TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

1020 PM HAIL 2 NNW BOOKER 36.48N 100.55W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC

TIME ESTIMATED

1030 PM HAIL FARNSWORTH 36.32N 100.97W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC

1030 PM TSTM WND GST FARNSWORTH 36.32N 100.97W
09/26/2012 E60 MPH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200684 AMA1200685 AMA1200686 AMA1200687 AMA1200688
AMA1200692 AMA1200689 AMA1200690 AMA1200693 AMA1200691 AMA1200694
AMA1200697 AMA1200695 AMA1200696

$$

COCKRELL

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KSGF [271618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271618
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1118 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD 2 E ROCKBRIDGE 36.78N 92.37W
09/27/2012 OZARK MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODED ROAD MO 95. REPORTED BY MODOT ON BRYANT CREEK.


&&

$$

DSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271611
SWODY1
SPC AC 271609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY-1
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY THE POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS
CANADA AND THE NERN STATES...AND A LOWER-LATITUDE BRANCH OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN
THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A COUPLE OF MORE SALIENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE PRESENT. THE FIRST WILL TRANSLATE FROM
THE MID/UPPER-OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE OTHER IS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SHEAR
SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE WAS ANALYZED OVER SWRN OH AS OF 15Z.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENEWD ALONG ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT...REACHING ERN PA/MD BY 28/12Z. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OZARKS WITH
WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY OBSCURED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE WWD/NWWD
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO ERN PARTS OF
CO/NM WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE COMMONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. THIS
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN EML WHICH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING CAN OCCUR.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO CO
DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
VIGOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THAT ON WED...THOUGH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES AND A 30-40 KT BULK WIND DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER ARE
STILL EXPECTED. AS SUCH...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...

HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES AND A SMALL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE REGION BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED ENHANCEMENT
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BY ABOVE-MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT AREA
SHOULD EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH WHEN
COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL
YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL ALIGN WITH 25-30 KT WLY WINDS IN THE MIDLEVELS...RESULTING IN A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF BULK WIND
DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING...

ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE TODAY ALONG/S OF COMPOSITE
SYNOPTIC FRONT-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
MOIST...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED COMPARED TO PAST
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AGGREGATE COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN/DEEPEN LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/27/2012

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KSGF [271559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KSGF 271559
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL FULTON 38.01N 94.72W
09/25/2012 E0.75 INCH BOURBON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0643 PM HAIL FULTON 38.01N 94.72W
09/25/2012 E1.00 INCH BOURBON KS PUBLIC

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG FORT SCOTT 37.84N 94.71W
09/25/2012 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL POWER LINES AND TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE
CITY. ONE UTILITY POLE WAS KNOCKED DOWN.

0845 PM TSTM WND DMG FORT SCOTT 37.84N 94.71W
09/25/2012 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN IN FORT SCOTT.

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG METZ 38.00N 94.44W
09/25/2012 VERNON MO POST OFFICE

A TREE WAS UPROOTED AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS WERE DOWN.

0100 AM FLASH FLOOD FORT SCOTT 37.84N 94.71W
09/26/2012 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

BOURBON COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED SEVERAL LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND BRIDGES UNDER WATER AND FLOODED.

0823 PM HAIL NOEL 36.55N 94.48W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH MCDONALD MO PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED. OTHER REPORTS OF NICKEL
AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0825 PM HAIL 1 W NOEL 36.55N 94.50W
09/26/2012 E0.50 INCH MCDONALD MO 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DIME HAIL

0910 PM HAIL 1 SW PONCE DE LEON 36.87N 93.36W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH STONE MO 911 CALL CENTER

COMMUNICATIONS RECEIVED REPORT OF NEAR GOLF BALL HAIL
JUST SOUTHWEST OF TOWN.

0910 PM HAIL 5 NE GALENA 36.86N 93.40W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH STONE MO BROADCAST MEDIA

1 INCH HAIL REPORTED AT ABESVILLE.

0913 PM HAIL 2 S SPOKANE 36.84N 93.30W
09/26/2012 E0.75 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HAIL 2 S SPOKANE 36.84N 93.30W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0947 PM HAIL WALNUT SHADE 36.73N 93.19W
09/26/2012 E0.75 INCH TANEY MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1109 PM HAIL 2 S OZARK 36.99N 93.21W
09/26/2012 E0.88 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC

1115 PM HAIL OZARK 37.02N 93.21W
09/26/2012 E0.50 INCH CHRISTIAN MO TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME HAIL REPORTED IN OZARK

1116 PM HAIL 2 SSE OZARK 36.99N 93.19W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO NWS EMPLOYEE

0500 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW SEYMOUR 37.09N 92.82W
09/27/2012 WEBSTER MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING REPORTED BY MODOT.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 E DOGWOOD 37.04N 92.70W
09/27/2012 M4.10 INCH DOUGLAS MO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA...4.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED
AS OF 5 AM ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE FORDLAND 37.08N 92.90W
09/27/2012 M4.00 INCH WEBSTER MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA OF 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN VANZANT 36.97N 92.30W
09/27/2012 M4.00 INCH DOUGLAS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
4 INCHES.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 S NORWOOD 36.99N 92.41W
09/27/2012 M3.75 INCH DOUGLAS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA...3.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.

0608 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 WNW AVA 36.97N 92.73W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A MAN WAS SWEPT OFF INTO HIGH
WATER ON ROUTE Y AT COWSKIN CREEK WEST OF AVA. ROUTE Y AT
THAT LOCATION IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH
WATER.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW BRUSHYKNOB 37.01N 92.52W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

REPORTED BY MODOT ON BRYANT CREEK.


&&

$$

WISE

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KSGF [271524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271524
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1024 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 PM HAIL WALNUT SHADE 36.73N 93.19W
09/26/2012 E0.75 INCH TANEY MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE


&&

$$

WISE

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KGLD [271511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 271511
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
911 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM HEAVY RAIN SEIBERT 39.30N 102.87W
09/27/2012 M3.35 INCH KIT CARSON CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING. ALSO
REPORTED SMALL HAIL.


&&

$$

DTHEDE

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KAMA [271509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 271509
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1005 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 13 N EVA 36.99N 101.90W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0825 PM HAIL HOUGH 36.87N 101.57W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

0839 PM HAIL 6 E HOUGH 36.87N 101.46W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND. ALSO ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH.

0855 PM HAIL 4 W HOOKER 36.86N 101.28W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0912 PM HAIL GUYMON 36.69N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 PM HAIL 1 N GUYMON 36.70N 101.48W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH TEXAS OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0914 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

0918 PM HAIL HOOKER 36.86N 101.21W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH TEXAS OK PUBLIC

1008 PM HAIL 2 NW FARNSWORTH 36.34N 100.99W
09/26/2012 E1.25 INCH OCHILTREE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED QUARTER SIZE TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1200684 AMA1200685 AMA1200686 AMA1200687 AMA1200688
AMA1200692 AMA1200689 AMA1200690 AMA1200693 AMA1200691 AMA1200694

$$

EA

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KMFL [271503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 271503
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1103 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM WATER SPOUT 3 E FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.10W
09/27/2012 AMZ651 FL AIRPLANE PILOT


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KSGF [271458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 271458
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
952 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 PM HAIL NOEL 36.55N 94.48W
09/26/2012 E1.75 INCH MCDONALD MO PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED. OTHER REPORTS OF NICKEL
AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.


&&

$$

DSA

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KSGF [271407]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 271407
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
906 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW SEYMOUR 37.09N 92.82W
09/27/2012 WEBSTER MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING REPORTED BY MODOT.

0608 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 WNW AVA 36.97N 92.73W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A MAN WAS SWEPT OFF INTO HIGH
WATER ON ROUTE Y AT COWSKIN CREEK WEST OF AVA. ROUTE Y AT
THAT LOCATION IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH
WATER.

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW BRUSHYKNOB 37.01N 92.52W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

REPORTED BY MODOT ON BRYANT CREEK.


&&

$$

DSA

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KDDC [271359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 271359
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
859 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S LIBERAL 37.01N 100.93W
09/27/2012 M3.50 INCH SEWARD KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

01

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KPUB [271324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 271324
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
724 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0722 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE PUEBLO 38.30N 104.59W
09/27/2012 M0.94 INCH PUEBLO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

MN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271245
SWODY1
SPC AC 271243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TO MODERATE TWO-STREAM ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
LWR 48 TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE
SRN FRINGE OF BROAD/PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER ONT/QUE.

AS THE LEAD IMPULSE IN THE CYCLONE LIFTS NE TOWARD
NEWFOUNDLAND...UPSTREAM VORT NOW OVER NE MB SHOULD AMPLIFY SE TO
JAMES BAY. THIS...IN TURN...WILL HELP ACCELERATE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM JET EWD ACROSS THE OH
VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...AND NUDGE THE ASSOCIATED W-E SFC FRONT SWD.
BOTH THE FRONT AND THE DISTURBANCES MAY FOSTER A FEW STRONG STORMS
FROM PARTS OF THE OH VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE WRN END OF THE SAME BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS AS THE FRONT REMAINS QSTNRY OVER PARTS
OF OK...TX...CO...AND NM BENEATH BELT OF ENHANCED SRN STREAM FLOW
ALOFT.

...S CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
INDUCE REDEVELOPMENT OF MOIST...SELY...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF
STALLED FRONT FROM ERN CO SWD INTO E CNTRL NM. COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
STREAM JET...SETUP SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

LOW-LVL WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK. BUT A SIZABLE DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT TO THE SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE LWR LVLS...AND AMPLE DEEP
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THUS...ISOLD
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN SE CO...FAR NE NM...AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE ESE TO SE-MOVING CLUSTERS
BY EVE...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND SEWD INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE.

...ERN OK/OZARKS THROUGH THE LWR OH/TN VLYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST
THIS AFTN...
A RESIDUAL BAND OF ENHANCED WLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY FROM OK/AR
E/ENE TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL...HOWEVER...BE DIMINISHED
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OH VLY AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN COMPARISON TO RECENT
DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/FRONT...MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS
OVER THE OZARKS AND LWR OH/TN VLYS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN TN/WV/VA/MD...AND ALONG LEE TROUGH IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. THE MORNING RAOB DATA...AND PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER...SUGGEST THAT OVERALL SVR RISK IS TOO LOW/UNFOCUSED ATTM TO
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THAT PARTS OF TN/ERN KY/WV/VA AND MD/DE ULTIMATELY MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE IF DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING IND PROVIDES
SUFFICIENT ASCENT TO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTN.

..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 09/27/2012

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KPAH [271127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 271127
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NW POPLAR BLUFF 36.84N 90.50W
09/27/2012 M0.40 INCH BUTLER MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN 10 MINUTES. 24-HOUR STORM
TOTAL 2.27 INCHES


&&

$$

SMITTTY

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KSGF [271125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271125
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN VANZANT 36.97N 92.30W
09/27/2012 M4.00 INCH DOUGLAS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF
4 INCHES.


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KSGF [271124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271124
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE FORDLAND 37.08N 92.90W
09/27/2012 M4.00 INCH WEBSTER MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA OF 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KSGF [271122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271122
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 S NORWOOD 36.99N 92.41W
09/27/2012 M3.75 INCH DOUGLAS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA...3.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KSGF [271110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271110
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W AVA 36.95N 92.71W
09/27/2012 DOUGLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A MAN WAS SWEPT OFF INTO HIGH
WATER ON ROUTE Y AT COWSKIN CREEK WEST OF AVA. ROUTE Y AT
THAT LOCATION IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH
WATER.


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KSGF [271059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 271059
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 E DOGWOOD 37.04N 92.70W
09/27/2012 M4.10 INCH DOUGLAS MO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA...4.10 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED
AS OF 5 AM ALONG WITH DIME SIZED HAIL FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS.


&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KJAX [270942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 270942
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
541 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1158 AM WATER SPOUT 2 SE FERNANDINA BEACH 30.64N 81.42W
09/26/2012 AMZ452 FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT ABOUT 2
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FERNANDINA BEACH.


&&

$$

ARS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270851
SWOD48
SPC AC 270850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST RUNS OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND DAY 4 /SUN.
9-30/...AND THEN OUT OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH DAY 5 /MON. 10-1/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
FAST/ZONAL FLOW FIELD OVER THE NRN CONUS...AND WEAK/NONDESCRIPT OVER
THE SRN HALF TO 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 6 /TUE. 10-2/...AFTER WHICH
MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FIELD
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

VERY LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT THROUGH DAY 5...GIVEN THE
ZONAL FLOW/LACK OF AMPLITUDE. A COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD
INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS...BUT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND THUS LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT APPARENT.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2012

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KRLX [270850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 270850
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
450 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM HAIL 3 NNE MABEE 38.95N 82.68W
09/26/2012 E1.00 INCH JACKSON OH BROADCAST MEDIA

ALONG RIEGEL RIDGE RD


&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200513

$$

MZ

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270731
SWODY3
SPC AC 270730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING SSWWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A RESULTING EXPANSION IN ERN
U.S. TROUGHING TO RESULT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT CONTINUING TO DRIFT SWD/SEWD -- EXTENDING
FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ATTM...ANTICIPATED CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE FRONT APPEARS
GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT. A VERY
ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND MAY EXIST ACROSS ERN NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON WHETHER THE FRONT REMAINS ONSHORE HERE OR
DRIFTS FARTHER SE. ALSO...WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION -- NOT
WELL HANDLED BETWEEN THE MODELS -- FORECAST INVOF COASTAL TX...THIS
COULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ROTATION POTENTIAL. STILL...THREATS
IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS REMAINS LOW/UNCERTAIN...SUCH THAT NO
PROBABILITY AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT/W-E SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE U.S.
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SEWD THIS PERIOD...AS
AN ERN CANADA UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NERN U.S. WITH
TIME. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A ZONE OF FOCUS FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK FLOW FIELD ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED MINOR DISTURBANCES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. TWO OF THE STRONGER
OF THESE FEATURES -- ONE CROSSING THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
THE OTHER SHIFTING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS -- WILL SUPPORT
CONVECTION ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO WRN TN...
COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND LIMITED SHEAR IS FORECAST FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LARGELY HINDER STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE ZONE OF CONVECTION FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...WITH A MARGINAL HAILSTONE/LOCALLY ENHANCED
GUST OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEARING LIKELY ATTM TO BE THE
EXTENT OF THE THREAT.

...SERN CO/SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EWD TO WRN AR...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OK AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES THIS PERIOD...NEAR THE W-E SURFACE
FRONT PROGGED TO LIE VIRTUALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE AREA...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS
ONLY AN ISOLATED/LOW-END THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND -- MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2012

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