ACUS11 KWNS 271917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271917
TXZ000-272015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...TX S PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...WRN N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271917Z - 272015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES SWD ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AND A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES ON A SWD/SEWD
PROGRESSING COLD POOL /DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT ON THE MD GRAPHIC/
ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...AND WRN N TX. THIS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SWD/SEWD
PROGRESSION GRADUALLY SLOWS. ADDITIONALLY...CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED 850 MB SLY FLOW AND ML MIXING
RATIOS AROUND 15 G/KG...IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPWIND PROPAGATION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR WITH SOME
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM BASED ON
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ DO EXIST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
MAF 12Z RAOB DID SHOW MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO THE SEVERE
THREAT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WEAK SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE TSTM ORGANIZATION AND KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW. AS SUCH...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 09/27/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31950279 32280244 32690165 32890003 33099912 33199873
33099814 32529808 31409880 31140312 31950279
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