ACUS02 KWNS 081707
SWODY2
SPC AC 081704
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST SAT NOV 08 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...A SECOND/SMALLER-SCALE
LOW/TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS.
AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES TX/OK -- INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/S CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
...SWRN KS/WRN OK/CENTRAL AND NWRN TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA...AS INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
RESULTS IN ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AS STRONG FLOW ALOFT SPREADS ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS LATE...SHEAR SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT...A FEW STRONGER ELEVATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.
...ELSEWHERE...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS. WHILE WARM AIR AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY HINDER ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORM SEEMS TO EXIST.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE APPARENT UNLIKELIHOOD OF
VIGOROUS/SUSTAINED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THE
CONDITIONAL TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 11/08/2008
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