NWUS54 KJAN 010009
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
708 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 PM FLASH FLOOD LELAND 33.40N 90.90W
09/30/2012 WASHINGTON MS BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORTS OF FLOODING AT HIGHWAY 82 EAST IN LELAND THAT HAS
SHUT DOWN THE HIGHWAY DUE TO FLOODING OF AN OVERPASS.
REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
$$
DCOX
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Sunday, September 30, 2012
KGID [010008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGID 010008
LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
708 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM HAIL 2 W COZAD 40.86N 100.02W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PBEDA
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LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
708 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0705 PM HAIL 2 W COZAD 40.86N 100.02W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PBEDA
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KJAX [010004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KJAX 010004
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 E BALDWIN 30.30N 81.92W
09/30/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER AT JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND A
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCH DOWN 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF BALDWIN.
NO CONFIRMATION OF A TOUCH DOWN OR REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
$$
PP
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 E BALDWIN 30.30N 81.92W
09/30/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTER AT JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND A
POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCH DOWN 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF BALDWIN.
NO CONFIRMATION OF A TOUCH DOWN OR REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT
THIS TIME.
&&
$$
PP
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KGID [302355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGID 302355
LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0651 PM HAIL 6 N COZAD 40.95N 99.99W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER HAIL 6 MILES NORTH OF COZAD.
&&
$$
BRYANT
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LSRGID
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0651 PM HAIL 6 N COZAD 40.95N 99.99W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER HAIL 6 MILES NORTH OF COZAD.
&&
$$
BRYANT
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KABQ [302348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KABQ 302348
LSRABQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 PM HAIL 8 ENE ELKINS 33.73N 103.93W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201312
$$
SHOEMAKE
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LSRABQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 PM HAIL 8 ENE ELKINS 33.73N 103.93W
09/30/2012 E1.00 INCH CHAVES NM TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL LASTED FOR 10 MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201312
$$
SHOEMAKE
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KLBF [302331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 302331
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL 1 W CALLAWAY 41.29N 99.94W
09/30/2012 E0.50 INCH CUSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HALF-INCH HAIL AND 0.55 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED.
&&
$$
MARTIN
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL 1 W CALLAWAY 41.29N 99.94W
09/30/2012 E0.50 INCH CUSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HALF-INCH HAIL AND 0.55 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED.
&&
$$
MARTIN
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KJAX [302329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 302329
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
729 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 E BALDWIN 30.30N 81.92W
09/30/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CENTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO TOUCH DOWN 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF BALDWIN. NO
CONFIRMATION TOUCH DOWN OR REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
$$
PP
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
729 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 E BALDWIN 30.30N 81.92W
09/30/2012 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL
THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AT JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT CENTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO TOUCH DOWN 2 TO 3 MILES EAST OF BALDWIN. NO
CONFIRMATION TOUCH DOWN OR REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
$$
PP
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KLBF [302316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 302316
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0613 PM HAIL 6 SW CALLAWAY 41.23N 100.00W
09/30/2012 E0.50 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC
HALF-INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTED.
&&
$$
MARTIN
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0613 PM HAIL 6 SW CALLAWAY 41.23N 100.00W
09/30/2012 E0.50 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC
HALF-INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTED.
&&
$$
MARTIN
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 657
WWUS20 KWNS 302300
SEL7
SPC WW 302300
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-010700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 656. WATCH NUMBER 656 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
545 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH LATE
TNGT/EARLY MON ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE MOVING SLOWLY EWD IN SE
QUADRANT OF SFC LOW NOW NEAR NATCHEZ MS. AREA VWP DATA /ESPECIALLY
AT MOB/ SUGGEST THAT BAND OF 35-40 KT SSWLY 700 MB WINDS THAT HAS
BEEN FCST TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION THIS EVE
ALREADY IS IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. AS THE SPEED MAX CONTINUES
NEWD...ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LVL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW GIVEN RICH MOISTURE OVER REGION AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS IN MODERATE...SSELY
NEAR-SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
ELSEWHERE...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND
ALONG ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM LOW DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS REGION...A
CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR LOW-LVL
MESOS/TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THREAT HERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS GREAT AS THAT IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.
...CORFIDI
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SEL7
SPC WW 302300
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-010700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 545 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JACKSON MISSISSIPPI TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 656. WATCH NUMBER 656 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
545 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH LATE
TNGT/EARLY MON ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE LINE MOVING SLOWLY EWD IN SE
QUADRANT OF SFC LOW NOW NEAR NATCHEZ MS. AREA VWP DATA /ESPECIALLY
AT MOB/ SUGGEST THAT BAND OF 35-40 KT SSWLY 700 MB WINDS THAT HAS
BEEN FCST TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION THIS EVE
ALREADY IS IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. AS THE SPEED MAX CONTINUES
NEWD...ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LVL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW-LVL MESOS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN
SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WW GIVEN RICH MOISTURE OVER REGION AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW UPDRAFTS IN MODERATE...SSELY
NEAR-SFC FLOW AHEAD OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
ELSEWHERE...MORE WDLY SCTD STORMS MAY FORM CLOSER TO SFC LOW AND
ALONG ASSOCIATED STNRY FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM LOW DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS REGION...A
CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR LOW-LVL
MESOS/TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THREAT HERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS GREAT AS THAT IN THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20025.
...CORFIDI
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KLUB [302247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLUB 302247
LSRLUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE FRIONA 34.66N 102.70W
09/30/2012 M58 MPH PARMER TX MESONET
MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB1200390
$$
MCZ
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LSRLUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0540 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE FRIONA 34.66N 102.70W
09/30/2012 M58 MPH PARMER TX MESONET
MEASURED BY WEST TX MESONET
&&
EVENT NUMBER LUB1200390
$$
MCZ
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KDDC [302245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 302245
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 PM HAIL 8 WSW SCOTT CITY 38.44N 101.04W
09/30/2012 E0.25 INCH SCOTT KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
545 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0543 PM HAIL 8 WSW SCOTT CITY 38.44N 101.04W
09/30/2012 E0.25 INCH SCOTT KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KMOB [302245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KMOB 302245
LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
544 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
1 BRICK HOME ON PINE AVE HAS MAJOR DAMAGE INCLUDING THE
LOSS OF ITS ROOF. OTHER NEARBY HOMES HAVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ROOF/PORCH DAMAGE
&&
$$
JFB
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LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
544 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
1 BRICK HOME ON PINE AVE HAS MAJOR DAMAGE INCLUDING THE
LOSS OF ITS ROOF. OTHER NEARBY HOMES HAVE VARYING DEGREES
OF ROOF/PORCH DAMAGE
&&
$$
JFB
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2010
ACUS11 KWNS 302209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302209
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND ADJACENT W
CNTRL/SW ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 656...
VALID 302209Z - 302345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 656 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...MAY INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL...ALABAMA. WITH A
WATCH LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF WW 656...AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 656 BEYOND 01Z...WW 656 MAY
BE REPLACED EARLY WITH ONE NEW WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...WIND FIELDS...PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS...ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND FIELDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. AS THE SUB-1000 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTER SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS /UP TO 40+ KT/ WILL ALIGN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AREA. GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT /70F SURFACE DEW POINTS/...ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED
INLAND OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31659042 32808986 33138905 33198834 32878722 32238716
30918756 29948830 29988978 30289019 31049045 31659042
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302209
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND ADJACENT W
CNTRL/SW ALABAMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 656...
VALID 302209Z - 302345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 656 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...MAY INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL...ALABAMA. WITH A
WATCH LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF WW 656...AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 656 BEYOND 01Z...WW 656 MAY
BE REPLACED EARLY WITH ONE NEW WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...WIND FIELDS...PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS...ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND FIELDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. AS THE SUB-1000 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTER SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS /UP TO 40+ KT/ WILL ALIGN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AREA. GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT /70F SURFACE DEW POINTS/...ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED
INLAND OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31659042 32808986 33138905 33198834 32878722 32238716
30918756 29948830 29988978 30289019 31049045 31659042
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KLIX [302202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 302202
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE WOODVILLE 31.09N 91.25W
09/30/2012 WILKINSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL SMALL PINE TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED IN THE JUDY
DAHL RD. AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24. SOME TREES WERE
CLEARED FROM THE ROADS IN THAT AREA.
&&
$$
JS
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
501 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0203 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE WOODVILLE 31.09N 91.25W
09/30/2012 WILKINSON MS EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL SMALL PINE TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED IN THE JUDY
DAHL RD. AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24. SOME TREES WERE
CLEARED FROM THE ROADS IN THAT AREA.
&&
$$
JS
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KJAN [302150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 302150
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE BAY SPRINGS 31.96N 89.26W
09/30/2012 JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORTS OF TWO TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 17 SOUTH OF BAY
SPRINGS. MINOR DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE OCCURRED.
&&
$$
DCOX
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE BAY SPRINGS 31.96N 89.26W
09/30/2012 JASPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
REPORTS OF TWO TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 17 SOUTH OF BAY
SPRINGS. MINOR DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE OCCURRED.
&&
$$
DCOX
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KMOB [302134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KMOB 302134
LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS AMATEUR RADIO
AMATEUR RADIO REPORTING ROOF DAMAGE ALONG WITH TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN IN MCHENRY
&&
$$
JFB
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LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS AMATEUR RADIO
AMATEUR RADIO REPORTING ROOF DAMAGE ALONG WITH TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN IN MCHENRY
&&
$$
JFB
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2009
ACUS11 KWNS 302134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302133
TXZ000-NMZ000-302230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302133Z - 302230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.
DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS NERN NM...THE NW TX AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A
WEAK COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAS INITIATED. GIVEN
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...AN ORGANIZED THREAT
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS AS STORMS
QUICKLY COLLAPSE. WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAIL
PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CORES.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35030450 35570297 36080142 36070046 35680021 34960065
34560177 34240264 34050349 34340460 35030450
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302133
TXZ000-NMZ000-302230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302133Z - 302230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN TX PANHANDLE.
DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS NERN NM...THE NW TX AND WRN TX PANHANDLE...WHERE A
WEAK COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAS INITIATED. GIVEN
MARGINAL MOISTURE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...AN ORGANIZED THREAT
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT WINDS AS STORMS
QUICKLY COLLAPSE. WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAIL
PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER CORES.
..HURLBUT/CORFIDI.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35030450 35570297 36080142 36070046 35680021 34960065
34560177 34240264 34050349 34340460 35030450
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KMOB [302127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KMOB 302127
LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE REPORTED ON PINE AVE IN MCHENRY. DETAILS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME.
&&
$$
JFB
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LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM TORNADO MCHENRY 30.71N 89.14W
09/30/2012 STONE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE REPORTED ON PINE AVE IN MCHENRY. DETAILS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME.
&&
$$
JFB
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 656...corrected
WWUS20 KWNS 301937 CCB
SEL6
SPC WW 301937 CCB
LAZ000-MSZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE...CDT NOT CST
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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SEL6
SPC WW 301937 CCB
LAZ000-MSZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE...CDT NOT CST
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 656...corrected
WWUS20 KWNS 301937 CCA
SEL6
SPC WW 301937 CCA
LAZ000-MSZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE...CDT NOT CST
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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SEL6
SPC WW 301937 CCA
LAZ000-MSZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
CORRECTED FOR TIME ZONE...CDT NOT CST
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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KLIX [302100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 302100
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM TORNADO 12 SW SAUCIER 30.51N 89.28W
09/30/2012 HARRISON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT
HARRISON COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT RELAYED REPORTS FROM
911 CALLS OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON CEMETERY ROAD NEAR
HIGHWAY 53.
&&
$$
98/SO
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0334 PM TORNADO 12 SW SAUCIER 30.51N 89.28W
09/30/2012 HARRISON MS LAW ENFORCEMENT
HARRISON COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT RELAYED REPORTS FROM
911 CALLS OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON CEMETERY ROAD NEAR
HIGHWAY 53.
&&
$$
98/SO
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008
ACUS11 KWNS 302050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302050
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-302215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302050Z - 302215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE S/SE. A SMALL WINDOW
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL SUNSET. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGEST CELLS. ANY MARGINAL THREAT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
ABOUT 3-4 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING LEADS TO
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 42960028 42769957 42289924 41529904 37679967 37229986
37120097 37270231 38530220 40400190 41810157 42770106
42960028
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302050
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-302215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302050Z - 302215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE S/SE. A SMALL WINDOW
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL SUNSET. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF SFC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGEST CELLS. ANY MARGINAL THREAT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR
ABOUT 3-4 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING LEADS TO
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 42960028 42769957 42289924 41529904 37679967 37229986
37120097 37270231 38530220 40400190 41810157 42770106
42960028
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KLWX [302011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KLWX 302011
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
411 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 3 S BOONSBORO 39.47N 77.66W
09/30/2012 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MD PUBLIC
NICKEL SIZE HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201352
$$
KLW
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
411 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0355 PM HAIL 3 S BOONSBORO 39.47N 77.66W
09/30/2012 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON MD PUBLIC
NICKEL SIZE HAIL
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1201352
$$
KLW
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 301952
SWODY1
SPC AC 301950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO REMOVE PART
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL LA. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SE LA WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALSO...A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING THE
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THE OUTLOOK
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...THE
LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND MIGRATE EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN MS/AL BY
12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW AND A NWD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS MS/AL WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN SRN LA AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR SRN MS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION FURTHER S.
RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
750-1500 J/KG DESPITE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH A
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30-35 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SE
LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS/AL TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN
AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH
OF A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MS/AL. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH...TN/NRN MS/AL...OF BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
LIMITING COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80 WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD
TO HIGH BASED STORMS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUST OR
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FOCUSED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 301950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO REMOVE PART
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL LA. THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SE LA WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALSO...A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SW AND SCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON HELPING THE
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THE OUTLOOK
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...THE
LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND MIGRATE EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN MS/AL BY
12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW AND A NWD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS MS/AL WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN SRN LA AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR SRN MS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION FURTHER S.
RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
750-1500 J/KG DESPITE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH A
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30-35 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SE
LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS/AL TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN
AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH
OF A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MS/AL. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH...TN/NRN MS/AL...OF BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
LIMITING COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80 WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD
TO HIGH BASED STORMS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUST OR
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FOCUSED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 656
WWUS20 KWNS 301937
SEL6
SPC WW 301937
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST SUN SEP 30 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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SEL6
SPC WW 301937
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CST SUN SEP 30 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SLIDELL
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND EAST OF NEWD
ADVANCING MESOLOW CIRCULATION MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2 WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WARM SECTOR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...DIAL
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 301833
SWODY2
SPC AC 301831
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SE TN AND FAR WRN NC...
CORRECTED WORDING
...GULF COAST STATES/SE TN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL OPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON MONDAY. A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN
MS...AL AND GA. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE LOW SEWD...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL
AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 301831
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SE TN AND FAR WRN NC...
CORRECTED WORDING
...GULF COAST STATES/SE TN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL OPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON MONDAY. A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN
MS...AL AND GA. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THE LOW SEWD...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL
AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
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KLCH [301800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301800
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M46 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
A WIND GUST OF 40 KTS WAS RECORDED AT KVNP WITH A PASSING
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M46 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
A WIND GUST OF 40 KTS WAS RECORDED AT KVNP WITH A PASSING
LINE OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KLCH [301757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301757
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1218 PM MARINE TSTM WIND INTRACOASTAL CITY 29.78N 92.16W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH VERMILION LA OTHER FEDERAL
A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS WAS RECORDED AT FRESHWATER LOCK
WITH AN ONSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1257 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1218 PM MARINE TSTM WIND INTRACOASTAL CITY 29.78N 92.16W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH VERMILION LA OTHER FEDERAL
A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS WAS RECORDED AT FRESHWATER LOCK
WITH AN ONSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KLCH [301747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301747
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 65 S BURNS POINT 28.63N 91.49W
09/30/2012 M43 MPH GMZ475 XX AWOS
KEIR RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 37 KTS WITH A PASSING LINE
OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 65 S BURNS POINT 28.63N 91.49W
09/30/2012 M43 MPH GMZ475 XX AWOS
KEIR RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 37 KTS WITH A PASSING LINE
OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KLCH [301721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301721
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M43 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
KVNP RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 37 KTS WITH A PASSING STORM.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M43 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
KVNP RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 37 KTS WITH A PASSING STORM.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 301710
SWODY2
SPC AC 301708
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SE TN AND FAR WRN NC...
...GULF COAST STATES/SE TN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL OPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON MONDAY. A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN
MS...AL AND GA. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM THE LOW SEWD...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL
AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 301708
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES NWD INTO SE TN AND FAR WRN NC...
...GULF COAST STATES/SE TN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL OPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD ON MONDAY. A 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AS A SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. MODELS SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SFC
LOW WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN
MS...AL AND GA. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM THE LOW SEWD...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS LINE MOVING GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN ERN AL AND WRN GA
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. IN ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 500 METERS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE. THE
GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE AL
AND NW GA INTO SE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.
..BROYLES.. 09/30/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 301559
SWODY1
SPC AC 301557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF
COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...THE
LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND MIGRATE EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN MS/AL BY
12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW AND A NWD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS MS/AL WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN SRN LA AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR SRN MS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION FURTHER S.
RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
750-1500 J/KG DESPITE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH A
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30-35 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SE
LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS/AL TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN
AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH
OF A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MS/AL. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH...TN/NRN MS/AL...OF BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
LIMITING COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80 WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD
TO HIGH BASED STORMS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUST OR
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FOCUSED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 301557
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF
COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EWD TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS A JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...THE
LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AND MIGRATE EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO NEAR SRN MS/AL BY
12Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW AND A NWD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS MS/AL WILL SERVE AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK SFC TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TODAY BUT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS IN SRN LA AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR SRN MS WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION FURTHER S.
RESULTING POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND
750-1500 J/KG DESPITE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND AMPLIFIES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH A RESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...WITH A
SLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30-35 KT FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SE
LA INTO SRN/CNTRL MS/AL TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...VEERING VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WITH INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AS LINE SEGMENTS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON INTO SRN
AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. FURTHER NORTH...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH
OF A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM CNTRL/NRN MS/AL. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH...TN/NRN MS/AL...OF BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
LIMITING COVERAGE OF STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80 WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LEAD
TO HIGH BASED STORMS. MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND GUST OR
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FOCUSED DEEP LAYER FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/30/2012
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KCRP [301552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KCRP 301552
LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1052 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.50W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER MINES ROAD NEAR INTERSTATE 35.
1249 AM FLASH FLOOD N LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
STRANDED MOTORISTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON NORTH SIDE OF
LAREDO.
0136 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRANDED MOTORISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CITY OF LAREDO. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.
0148 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M4.20 INCH WEBB TX AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED 1/4 MILE EAST OF KGNS TV STUDIOS.
0157 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N LAREDO 27.55N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M5.62 INCH WEBB TX COCORAHS
MEASURED AT SALDANA AND JACAMAN RD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
0436 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SE CC NAS 27.60N 97.21W
09/29/2012 M49.00 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET
BOB HALL PIER MEASURED GUST TO 43 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED AT
35 KTS.
0453 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI 27.69N 97.25W
09/29/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ230 TX ASOS
CC NAS MEASURED 41 KT WIND GUST /47 MPH/ WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORM.
0500 PM WATER SPOUT E PORT ARANSAS 27.89N 97.01W
09/29/2012 GMZ230 TX TRAINED SPOTTER
BRIEF WATERSPOUT EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.
0515 PM TORNADO 1 NW PORT LAVACA 28.62N 96.63W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERRIF BETWEEN FM 1090 AND HALF
LEAGUE RD.
0516 PM TORNADO NW PORT LAVACA 28.61N 96.62W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
MINOR DAMAGE TO A TRACTOR SUPPLY BUSINESS. GUTTERS BLOWN
OFF. ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN THE AREA.
0616 PM HEAVY RAIN INGLESIDE 27.87N 97.20W
09/29/2012 E2.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN SHORT TIME. STANDING WATER
IN YARDS AND FIELDS.
&&
$$
GWILK
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LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1052 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.50W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX TRAINED SPOTTER
WATER OVER MINES ROAD NEAR INTERSTATE 35.
1249 AM FLASH FLOOD N LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
STRANDED MOTORISTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ON NORTH SIDE OF
LAREDO.
0136 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
09/29/2012 WEBB TX EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF STRANDED MOTORISTS THROUGHOUT THE
CITY OF LAREDO. MANY LOW WATER CROSSINGS UNDER WATER.
0148 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW LAREDO 27.57N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M4.20 INCH WEBB TX AMATEUR RADIO
REPORTED 1/4 MILE EAST OF KGNS TV STUDIOS.
0157 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N LAREDO 27.55N 99.49W
09/29/2012 M5.62 INCH WEBB TX COCORAHS
MEASURED AT SALDANA AND JACAMAN RD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
0436 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SE CC NAS 27.60N 97.21W
09/29/2012 M49.00 MPH GMZ250 TX MESONET
BOB HALL PIER MEASURED GUST TO 43 KNOTS AND SUSTAINED AT
35 KTS.
0453 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 ESE CORPUS CHRISTI 27.69N 97.25W
09/29/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ230 TX ASOS
CC NAS MEASURED 41 KT WIND GUST /47 MPH/ WITH PASSING
THUNDERSTORM.
0500 PM WATER SPOUT E PORT ARANSAS 27.89N 97.01W
09/29/2012 GMZ230 TX TRAINED SPOTTER
BRIEF WATERSPOUT EAST OF PORT ARANSAS.
0515 PM TORNADO 1 NW PORT LAVACA 28.62N 96.63W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORT FROM COUNTY SHERRIF BETWEEN FM 1090 AND HALF
LEAGUE RD.
0516 PM TORNADO NW PORT LAVACA 28.61N 96.62W
09/29/2012 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
MINOR DAMAGE TO A TRACTOR SUPPLY BUSINESS. GUTTERS BLOWN
OFF. ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN THE AREA.
0616 PM HEAVY RAIN INGLESIDE 27.87N 97.20W
09/29/2012 E2.00 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL OF 2-2.25 INCHES IN SHORT TIME. STANDING WATER
IN YARDS AND FIELDS.
&&
$$
GWILK
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KCRP [301551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KCRP 301551
LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1050 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
&&
$$
GWILK
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LSRCRP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1050 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 AM TSTM WND DMG THREE RIVERS 28.47N 98.18W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON OAKVILLE ROAD IN THREE RIVERS.
0255 AM TSTM WND DMG 9 NNE THREE RIVERS 28.58N 98.11W
09/29/2012 LIVE OAK TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF FM 2049 AND CR 243.
&&
$$
GWILK
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2007
ACUS11 KWNS 301533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301533
MSZ000-LAZ000-301730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301533Z - 301730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM SERN LA
THROUGH SRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WCNTRL LA
THROUGH SRN MS WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH SWRN LA. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS HAS
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PARTIAL
CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SPREADING INTO SERN LA...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITIES MIGHT OCCUR. LARGER 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A SLY LLJ WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE
SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG LLJ AXIS TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS. ANY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
SRN MS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM
FRONT.
..DIAL/HART.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30059225 31749094 31638910 30478909 29589016 30059225
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301533
MSZ000-LAZ000-301730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301533Z - 301730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM SERN LA
THROUGH SRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WCNTRL LA
THROUGH SRN MS WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH SWRN LA. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS HAS
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PARTIAL
CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SPREADING INTO SERN LA...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITIES MIGHT OCCUR. LARGER 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A SLY LLJ WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE
SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG LLJ AXIS TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS. ANY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
SRN MS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM
FRONT.
..DIAL/HART.. 09/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30059225 31749094 31638910 30478909 29589016 30059225
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KLCH [301532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301532
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1032 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0949 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 S HACKBERRY 29.91N 93.43W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH CAMERON LA MESONET
THE RAWS SITE AT THE SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
RECORDED A 40 MPH WIND GUST WITH A PASSING LINE OF STORMS
BEFORE THE LINE MOVED OVER CALCASIEU LAKE.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1032 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0949 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 S HACKBERRY 29.91N 93.43W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH CAMERON LA MESONET
THE RAWS SITE AT THE SABINE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
RECORDED A 40 MPH WIND GUST WITH A PASSING LINE OF STORMS
BEFORE THE LINE MOVED OVER CALCASIEU LAKE.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KLCH [301514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301514
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.30W
09/30/2012 M52 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
KCRH AWOS RECORDED 45 KTS WITH A PASSING LINE OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.30W
09/30/2012 M52 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
KCRH AWOS RECORDED 45 KTS WITH A PASSING LINE OF STORMS.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KTFX [301512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 301512
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
912 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/29/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
912 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/29/2012 M66 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
66 MPH WIND GUST AT THE LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER.
&&
$$
BRUSDA
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KLCH [301507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301507
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.30W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS WAS RECORDED AT KCRH.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.30W
09/30/2012 M40 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS WAS RECORDED AT KCRH.
&&
$$
ATINGLER
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KGLD [301339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 301339
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
739 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 AM HAIL 2 W MCCOOK 40.20N 100.66W
09/30/2012 M0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL FROM 1/4-3/4 INCH
&&
$$
FS
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
739 AM MDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0719 AM HAIL 2 W MCCOOK 40.20N 100.66W
09/30/2012 M0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE TRAINED SPOTTER
HAIL FROM 1/4-3/4 INCH
&&
$$
FS
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KGSP [301309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KGSP 301309
LSRGSP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 S GAFFNEY 34.95N 81.63W
09/29/2012 CHEROKEE SC EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 REPORTED BY COUNTY EMA
&&
$$
PTANNER
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LSRGSP
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
909 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 S GAFFNEY 34.95N 81.63W
09/29/2012 CHEROKEE SC EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 REPORTED BY COUNTY EMA
&&
$$
PTANNER
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KLCH [301224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301224
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
724 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 60 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.92N 93.31W
09/30/2012 M59 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
THE PLATFORM KCRH RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 51 KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
724 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 60 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.92N 93.31W
09/30/2012 M59 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
THE PLATFORM KCRH RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 51 KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 301221
SWODY1
SPC AC 301219
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LWR MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
GULF COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND AMPLIFY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND EMERGE OVER MS/AL. MEANWHILE...MORNING SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN TX...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AND AL. THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES...WHICH WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING A SLY LLJ
OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS CNTRL LA AND
ENTERS CNTRL MS TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER
SRN LA...AND REACH SRN MS/AL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...LWR MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES FROM FAR SERN TX THIS MORNING INTO LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND CNTRL MS BY TONIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
WILL BE VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND PW VALUES FROM 2.0-2.20 INCHES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. AS A
RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG.
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY...WHILE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE FORCED BY WEAK
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL
FAVOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. LATER TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH COULD AID IN FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME DISPLACED TO THE N FROM THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE SVR
WEATHER THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD FROM WRN NEB INTO
WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /FROM 7-7.5 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ WILL AID
IN WEAK MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK
/20-30 KT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...15-20 KT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS/...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SVR LEVELS AND
POSE A THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 301219
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LWR MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
GULF COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND AMPLIFY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND EMERGE OVER MS/AL. MEANWHILE...MORNING SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN TX...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AND AL. THE LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES...WHICH WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING A SLY LLJ
OVER THE CNTRL GULF STATES. AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS CNTRL LA AND
ENTERS CNTRL MS TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER
SRN LA...AND REACH SRN MS/AL TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...LWR MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES FROM FAR SERN TX THIS MORNING INTO LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND CNTRL MS BY TONIGHT. THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS
WILL BE VERY MOIST...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...AND PW VALUES FROM 2.0-2.20 INCHES. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK. AS A
RESULT...MUCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 500-1500 J/KG.
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY...WHILE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE FORCED BY WEAK
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL
FAVOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. LATER TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH COULD AID IN FURTHER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME DISPLACED TO THE N FROM THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE SVR
WEATHER THREAT DURING THE NIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SWD FROM WRN NEB INTO
WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /FROM 7-7.5 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ WILL AID
IN WEAK MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK
/20-30 KT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...15-20 KT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS/...ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SVR LEVELS AND
POSE A THREAT FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 09/30/2012
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KLCH [301156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 301156
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 14 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.46N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M49 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
THE PLATFORM KVNP RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 43 KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0635 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 14 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.46N 92.37W
09/30/2012 M49 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
THE PLATFORM KVNP RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 43 KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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KSHV [300913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 300913
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0411 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW HUXLEY 31.70N 93.91W
09/30/2012 M5.15 INCH SHELBY TX MESONET
TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN IS STILL
FALLING.
&&
$$
20
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0411 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW HUXLEY 31.70N 93.91W
09/30/2012 M5.15 INCH SHELBY TX MESONET
TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN IS STILL
FALLING.
&&
$$
20
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KSHV [300910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 300910
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0403 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW APPLEBY 31.76N 94.66W
09/30/2012 M8.24 INCH NACOGDOCHES TX MESONET
TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN STILL
FALLING.
&&
$$
20
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0403 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW APPLEBY 31.76N 94.66W
09/30/2012 M8.24 INCH NACOGDOCHES TX MESONET
TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AT RAWS LOCATION. RAIN BEGAN
FALLING AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM CDT SATURDAY. RAIN STILL
FALLING.
&&
$$
20
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 300829
SWOD48
SPC AC 300829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF
LOWER MS TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/NERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY DEEPER/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS FASTER SOLUTION MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO STRONGER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THAN THE GFS WHICH WILL
ENCOURAGE A QUICKER EJECTING TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
THUS THE PREDICTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 300829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF
LOWER MS TROUGH INTO THE OH VALLEY/NERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS
CONSIDERABLY DEEPER/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE AND POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS FASTER SOLUTION MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO STRONGER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THAN THE GFS WHICH WILL
ENCOURAGE A QUICKER EJECTING TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
THUS THE PREDICTABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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KSHV [300731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 300731
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM FLASH FLOOD NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.65W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTS PRESS ROAD IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS
TIME...WITH NEARLY 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING IT.
&&
$$
20
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM FLASH FLOOD NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.65W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTS PRESS ROAD IS IMPASSABLE AT THIS
TIME...WITH NEARLY 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING IT.
&&
$$
20
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 300714
SWODY3
SPC AC 300712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...OH VALLEY...
LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL RELUCTANTLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD THOUGH A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS ERN TN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALLOW LLJ...IN
VARYING DEGREES...TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SRN OH WHICH
SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OH
RIVER. ALTHOUGH IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT STRONGLY
SHEARED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT.
DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A RECOVERING/MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL NOT EXTEND SEVERE PROBS
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 300712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...OH VALLEY...
LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL RELUCTANTLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD THOUGH A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS ERN TN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS ALLOW LLJ...IN
VARYING DEGREES...TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS ERN KY INTO SRN OH WHICH
SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OH
RIVER. ALTHOUGH IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IT WOULD SEEM THAT ANY BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT STRONGLY
SHEARED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT.
DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND A RECOVERING/MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WILL NOT EXTEND SEVERE PROBS
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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KSHV [300709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 300709
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
209 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.74W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
BRIDGE WASHED OUT WEST OF TOWN.
&&
$$
MBERRY
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
209 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0208 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.74W
09/30/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
BRIDGE WASHED OUT WEST OF TOWN.
&&
$$
MBERRY
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 300538
SWODY2
SPC AC 300536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S....
...SERN U.S...
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SERN OK THEN DRIFTS
INTO AR BY 02/00Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW AND
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO ERN MS AT DAYBREAK THEN EASE INTO
AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF ERN MS/AL/GA AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT. A FEW NEGATIVES FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SUBSEQUENT POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...PSEUDO-ADIABATIC...THAT SHOULD LIMIT SBCAPE TO ROUGHLY
500-1000 J/KG.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE EWD
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS BUT ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT MAY EXHIBIT MORE LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH BOW-TYPE
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ECHOES THAT EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 300536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S....
...SERN U.S...
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SERN OK THEN DRIFTS
INTO AR BY 02/00Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW AND
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO ERN MS AT DAYBREAK THEN EASE INTO
AL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KT
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF ERN MS/AL/GA AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT. A FEW NEGATIVES FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SUBSEQUENT POOR LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...PSEUDO-ADIABATIC...THAT SHOULD LIMIT SBCAPE TO ROUGHLY
500-1000 J/KG.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS MS AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE EWD
DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS
CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS BUT ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT MAY EXHIBIT MORE LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS WITH BOW-TYPE
STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH ECHOES THAT EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION. OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/30/2012
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KSHV [300501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSHV 300501
LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.74W
09/29/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
VEHICLES WRECKED...HYDROPLANING...OR STALLED OUT. HWY 21
WEST AND HWY 7 WEST.
&&
$$
MMAYEAUX
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LSRSHV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1130 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W NACOGDOCHES 31.61N 94.74W
09/29/2012 NACOGDOCHES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
VEHICLES WRECKED...HYDROPLANING...OR STALLED OUT. HWY 21
WEST AND HWY 7 WEST.
&&
$$
MMAYEAUX
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 300439
SWODY1
SPC AC 300437
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NEWD TO MAINE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO EFFICIENT
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE N CNTRL
STATES...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
FARTHER S...A SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS
E TX...LA AND MS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING AMIDST A TROPICAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2-2.25 INCH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
ASSOCIATED WEAK/MOIST LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...LEADING TO QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/VEERING PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST TRANSIENT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A RELATIVE JET
MAX ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL GULF
STATES...AND THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MS. AS
SUCH...TORNADIC POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWLY EWD
PROGRESSING BROKEN SQUALL LINE MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS...AL...REACHING THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z/MON.
HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.
...NERN CO/NWRN KS/CNTRL NEB...
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
TROPICAL AIR MASS AMIDST WEAK SLY/SELYS. THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY HINDER A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STORMS...AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNALLY-DRIVEN HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-14 AT
500 MB/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH HAIL PRODUCTION
POSSIBLE. DMGG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE.
..HURLBUT/KERR.. 09/30/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 300437
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ERN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT NEWD TO MAINE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT LEADING TO EFFICIENT
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE N CNTRL
STATES...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
FARTHER S...A SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS
E TX...LA AND MS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST.
...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER LOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING AMIDST A TROPICAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
BY PWAT VALUES NEAR 2-2.25 INCH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY
ASSOCIATED WEAK/MOIST LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER THAT WILL HINDER
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING...LEADING TO QUESTIONABLE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/VEERING PROFILES WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST TRANSIENT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A RELATIVE JET
MAX ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL GULF
STATES...AND THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MS. AS
SUCH...TORNADIC POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWLY EWD
PROGRESSING BROKEN SQUALL LINE MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MS...AL...REACHING THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z/MON.
HOWEVER...MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONTINUE TO
CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.
...NERN CO/NWRN KS/CNTRL NEB...
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ON THE PERIPHERY OF A
TROPICAL AIR MASS AMIDST WEAK SLY/SELYS. THOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY HINDER A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STORMS...AT LEAST ISOLD DIURNALLY-DRIVEN HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-14 AT
500 MB/ MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WITH HAIL PRODUCTION
POSSIBLE. DMGG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE.
..HURLBUT/KERR.. 09/30/2012
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To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
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