MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2010

ACUS11 KWNS 302209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302209
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE LA...CNTRL/SRN MS AND ADJACENT W
CNTRL/SW ALABAMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 656...

VALID 302209Z - 302345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 656 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...MAY INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST...PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL...ALABAMA. WITH A
WATCH LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ACROSS AREAS EAST OF WW 656...AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 656 BEYOND 01Z...WW 656 MAY
BE REPLACED EARLY WITH ONE NEW WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...WIND FIELDS...PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS...ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH REGARD TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND FIELDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME. AS THE SUB-1000 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTER SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS /UP TO 40+ KT/ WILL ALIGN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AREA. GIVEN HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT /70F SURFACE DEW POINTS/...ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY SUPPORT FURTHER INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL MAY LINGER WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED
INLAND OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 09/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31659042 32808986 33138905 33198834 32878722 32238716
30918756 29948830 29988978 30289019 31049045 31659042

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