KSGX [200359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 200359
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
859 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 PM HAIL 7 SE LUCERNE VALLEY 34.37N 116.87W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM LIGHTNING 7 SE LUCERNE VALLEY 34.37N 116.87W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

4-5 CG LIGHTNING STRIKES PER MINUTE. 2 EXPLOSIONS. HALF
THE VALLEY LOST POWER.

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SE LUCERNE VALLEY 34.37N 116.87W
10/19/2010 M57.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0628 PM FLOOD HESPERIA 34.42N 117.30W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING DOWN ROAD. 2 INCHES OF WATER IN
GARAGE.

0628 PM HAIL HESPERIA 34.42N 117.30W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KVEF [200212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 200212
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
712 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 1 INCH HAIL WITH SMALLER HAIL
ACCUMULATING IN THE STREETS. HAIL LASTED FROM 440 TO 450
PM.

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LENWOOD 34.89N 117.12W
10/19/2010 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

DEEP WATER FLOWING IN THE STREETS WITH LIMBS AND HAIL IN
THE FLOODWATERS. FLOODING STARTED AT AROUND 440 PM AND
WAS ONGOING AT 450 PM.

&&

$$

JGG

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KLOX [200120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KLOX 200120
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
620 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W WOODLAND HILLS 34.17N 118.65W
10/19/2010 U0.00 INCH LOS ANGELES CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.13 INCHES RAIN IN 5 MINUTES NEAR CHATSWORTH

0525 PM HAIL 3 NE SIMI VALLEY 34.29N 118.71W
10/19/2010 M1.00 INCH VENTURA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER MEASURED A HAILSTONE 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

0545 PM HAIL 5 WNW SIMI VALLEY 34.29N 118.84W
10/19/2010 M0.50 INCH VENTURA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE-SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR MOORPARK COLLEGE.

0605 PM HAIL OXNARD 34.20N 119.21W
10/19/2010 M0.25 INCH VENTURA CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT NWS WFO-LOX

&&

$$

MEIER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200056
SWODY1
SPC AC 200055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING SLOWLY ESEWD
INTO NRN BAJA CA/SRN CA -- SPREADING COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ATOP A DIURNALLY-HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODERATE ESELY MID-LEVEL FLOW
RESULTING IN A SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION FOR A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN CA. A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL EVENTS HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WITH LIMITED THREAT POTENTIALLY LINGERING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS.

..GOSS.. 10/20/2010

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KLOX [200048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 200048
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
548 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 3 NE SIMI VALLEY 34.29N 118.71W
10/19/2010 M1.00 INCH VENTURA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER MEASURED A HAILSTONE 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

&&

$$

MEIER

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KSHV [200003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 200003
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
702 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE COLUMBIA 32.12N 92.05W
10/19/2010 CALDWELL LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES
REPORTED ALONG HWY 133 BETWEEN THE COMMUNITIES OF
COLUMBIA AND HEBERT.

&&

$$

18

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KJAX [192223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 192223
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
623 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM WILDFIRE 4 SSE JUNIPER SPRINGS 29.12N 81.71W
10/19/2010 MARION FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

WILDFIRE IN THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST HAS REACHED
APPROXIMATELY 1000 ACRES.

&&

$$

JHESS

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KVEF [192153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 192153
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
253 PM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 5 W KINGMAN 35.22N 114.12W
10/19/2010 E0.88 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL FELL FROM 240 PM TO 247 PM.

&&

$$

MORGAN

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KSHV [192125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 192125
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
424 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARENCE 31.82N 93.03W
10/19/2010 NATCHITOCHES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY OF
CLARENCE.

&&

$$

18

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KSHV [192037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 192037
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL CLARENCE 31.82N 93.03W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA PUBLIC

&&

$$

18

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KSHV [192030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 192030
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL CAMPTI 31.90N 93.11W
10/19/2010 E0.50 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA PUBLIC

&&

$$

18

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191927
SWODY1
SPC AC 191925

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA INTO EXTREME SWRN AZ...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY EAST OF UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

...N CNTRL TX THROUGH NRN LA AND SWRN MS...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF E-W BOUNDARY AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM N-CNTRL TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000
J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/19/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010/

...SRN CA...
COLD UPR LOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 MI WSW SAN EXPECTED TO TURN E
REACHING NRN BAJA BY 12Z WED. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED INTO SRN CA WHICH ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR WITH UPPER LOW...SUPPORTS ACTIVE CONVECTION MUCH OF SRN CA
THRU THE PERIOD.

WITH SOME HEATING INTO IMPERIAL VALLEY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SELY
UPSLOPE...STRONGER/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM E
SLOPES HIGHER TERRAIN SRN CA INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. 30-40KT OF
SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF ROTATING
STORMS. ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
FROM SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK/AR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. BY MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
HEATING RAISES MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM PARTS OF SRN
AR/LA INTO ERN TX/WRN MS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1955

ACUS11 KWNS 191847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191846
CAZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...INTERIOR SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 191846Z - 192015Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS INCREASE
IN INTENSITY ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 160 STATUTE MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WITH THE RUC ANALYZING A LOBE OF VORTICITY
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WHICH COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SFC-HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT WITH ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SRN CA. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE SRN CA
WSR-88D VWPS AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -16 TO -18C RANGE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 10/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON 33321483 32881514 32481605 32751679 33761712 34271692
34531655 34601559 34231504 33321483

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191727
SWODY2
SPC AC 191726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NM INTO SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH REX BLOCK TO
PERSIST IN THE WEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S..
THE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD TO SWRN AZ. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NC WSWWD THROUGH WRN TX WILL ADVANCE SWD
TO THE GULF COAST...WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS WRN TX.

...ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX...

ELY-SELY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL EXIST OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN/ERN NM TO
THE NORTH OF STALLED FRONT...ADVECTING 50S DEWPOINTS WNWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM SERN NM INTO SWRN TX WHERE BELT
OF 25-30 KT FLOW ALOFT WEST OF RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAP ESELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF FRONT RESULTING IN 35-40 KT VERTICAL
SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE
OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM SERN NM THROUGH SWRN TX.

...SRN CA THROUGH AZ...

COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW WITH
-15 TO -18C AT 500MB ACROSS AZ INTO SRN CA. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
BOOST MLCAPE TO 500-800 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASCENT WITH LOBE
OF VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AREAS /20-30 KT/ WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...7-7.5 C/KM LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/19/2010

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KVEF [191625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 191625
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
924 AM PDT TUE OCT 19 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E KINGMAN 35.20N 113.96W
10/18/2010 MOHAVE AZ EMERGENCY MNGR

TILES WERE DAMAGED ON THE ROOF OF A HOUSE IN THE RANCHO
SANTA FE SUBDIVISION OF KINGMAN. THIS WAS ORIGINALLY
REPORTED AS A TORNADO. A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEE WILL SURVEY THE DAMAGE TODAY.

&&

$$

MORGAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191606
SWODY1
SPC AC 191604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...
COLD UPR LOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 MI WSW SAN EXPECTED TO TURN E
REACHING NRN BAJA BY 12Z WED. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED INTO SRN CA WHICH ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR WITH UPPER LOW...SUPPORTS ACTIVE CONVECTION MUCH OF SRN CA
THRU THE PERIOD.

WITH SOME HEATING INTO IMPERIAL VALLEY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SELY
UPSLOPE...STRONGER/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM E
SLOPES HIGHER TERRAIN SRN CA INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. 30-40KT OF
SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF ROTATING
STORMS. ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
FROM SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK/AR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. BY MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
HEATING RAISES MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM PARTS OF SRN
AR/LA INTO ERN TX/WRN MS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191228
SWODY1
SPC AC 191226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS/OK/AR.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
FROM PARTS OF AR/LA INTO TX...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN CA...
A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING. A POCKET OF COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD POCKETS OF MARGINAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
INCREASE THE ODDS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THIS AREA WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/19/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 190841
SWOD48
SPC AC 190841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT FCST ALOFT ONCE SERN LOW DISCUSSED IN
DAY-2/DAY-3 OUTLOOKS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SOME SVR MAY OCCUR WITH COLD-CORE REGION OF THIS FEATURE DAYS
4-5/22ND-24TH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AOA 30% AREA IS
PRECLUDED BY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
THETAE...BOTH UNDER MIDLEVEL LOW AND OVER WARM SECTOR. BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...HEIGHT FALLS WILL COVER MUCH OF ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IN ADVANCE OF PAC TROUGHING. IN ADDITION...PROGRESSIVE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN MOST SREF MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC
UKMET/ECMWF/SPECTRAL OVER NRN MEX DAY-5/23RD-24TH...WITH CONFLUENT
MID-UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS TX/OK. PROGS VARY CONSIDERABLY
FROM DAY-5 ONWARD REGARDING WHETHER THIS FEATURE CLOSES/CUTS OFF AS
CYCLONE OVER TX OR NRN MEX...OR EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS MS
VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER
WRN CONUS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190703
SWODY3
SPC AC 190702

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...WRN CONUS REX PATTERN FCST TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EWD THROUGH PERIOD...AS CUT-OFF LOW NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA EJECTS
SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NM. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM FRONTAL ZONE
DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WILL BECOME VERY DIFFUSE AND PROBABLY
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH DRYLINE OVER LOWER
PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN REGION. PAC COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE
UPPER LOW EWD ACROSS NM...MOVING INTO TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH-PLAINS
REGIONS DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. WEAK SFC LOW MAY FORM ALONG
THIS FRONT OVER NERN NM/SERN CO/NWRN PANHANDLES REGION DURING
22/00Z-22/06Z TIME FRAME. UNCERTAINTIES LINGER IN PROGS REGARDING
TIMING/STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL FEATURES...GIVEN SOME DIVERGENCE IN
TRACK PROGS OF MID-UPPER LOW...AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE
MODULATION OF SFC FRONT/DRYLINE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AS CYCLONE ALOFT SLOWLY APCHS SRN HIGH PLAINS...MOIST ADVECTION
WITHIN PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN-FLOW WILL OFFSET DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PLUME OF MID-50S TO LOW-60S F SFC
DEW POINTS FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK REGION SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL
TX...WITH PW AND MIXING-RATIO VALUES GENERALLY INCREASING SWD.
MEANWHILE...AS STRONGER MID-UPPER WINDS SHIFT EWD OVER THIS
PLUME...EXPECT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR STG-SVR TSTMS
DURING AFTERNOON...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. FCST
SOUNDINGS REASONABLY DEPICT STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN
LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...AND CURVING HODOGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY OVER
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE MODEST CAPE
RELATED TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST HEATING/LAPSE RATES...RELATED IN TURN
TO CLOUDINESS ALOFT...AS INDICATED BY HIGH RH PROGGED IN 250-400 MB
LAYER. HOWEVER...PRIND COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST DIURNAL HEATING
AND FRONTAL/DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME CINH...CONCENTRATING
CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR TO WARRANT
CATEGORICAL-CRITERIA PROBABILITIES. 30-40 KT LLJ AND RELATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION EWD TOWARD WRN OK...NW TX
AND PERHAPS SW KS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER
WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT.

SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE MRGL/CONDITIONAL SWD ACROSS SW TX WITH
STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE NEBULOUS LIFT...WWD OVER NM WHERE
ANTECEDENT CLOUDS/PRECIP LIMIT HEATING...AND NWD OVER CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE IS WEAK.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190600
SWODY1
SPC AC 190559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AMPLIFIES FURTHER THIS
PERIOD...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LOW INITIALLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST IS
PROGGED TO MOVE STEADILY EWD TOWARD/INTO NRN BAJA CA/SRN CA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER SRN
CA...WHILE FARTHER E A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING ERN
TROUGH SAGS STEADILY SSEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/SRN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND NERN TX/SERN OK EWD INTO SRN AR/NRN LA...
ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF OK AND AR AND INTO N TX...NEAR AND N OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT /ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
CAPE NEAR PEAK HEATING/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE
INCREASE...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT.

WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED BUT MODERATE NWLYS AT MID
LEVELS...SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ORGANIZED
STORMS...WITH SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
STRONGER WIND GUST...BUT ATTM THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

...SRN CA...
DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD YIELD MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO FUEL A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION. WHILE THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...MODERATELY-STRONG SELY FLOW ALOFT MAY
PERMIT A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS TO EVOLVE. WITH COOL AIR ALOFT
POSSIBLY SUPPORTING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGER CELLS...OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY INVOF THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/19/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR REX PATTERN...FCST TO DOMINATE WRN CONUS THROUGH FIRST
HALF OF PERIOD...WILL ERODE LATE DAY-2...DOWNSTREAM FROM STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED HEIGHT FALLS DIGGING ESEWD OVER NERN
PAC. AS THIS OCCURS...PERSISTENT/CUT-OFF CYCLONE -- NOW MOVING
SLOWLY SEWD OFF CA COAST -- WILL EJECT SLOWLY NEWD FROM NRN BAJA
ACROSS SWRN AZ...BASED ON STG CONSENSUS OF SREF MEMBERS...19/00Z
OPERATIONAL WRF AND SPECTRAL...AND PRIOR ECMWF. MEANWHILE...DEEP
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING IS FCST FROM HUDSON BAY SWD ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH INTERVENING RIDGE FROM
DEEP S TX TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE NOW MOVING SWD OVER KY...NRN AR...SWRN OK AND
W TX WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM GA-TX BY
21/00Z...QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS S TX AND RETREATING NWD AS DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND LACK OF STG CONVERGENCE...FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS GULF COAST STATES...WHILE COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LEAD TO SHALLOW TSTMS OVER
AND VERY NEAR PORTIONS GREAT LAKES.

...SRN NV/LOWER CO VALLEY TO FAR W TX...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP
DIURNALLY BENEATH BROAD REGION OF DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
SEVERAL FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL REGIMES FOR AT LEAST STG TSTMS...

1. WRN LOBE OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM PECOS VALLEY REGION WNWWD OVER
SRN/CENTRAL NM...WHERE FRONTAL AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL AID
DEVELOPMENT IN TANDEM WITH SFC HEATING...DEW POINTS 50S F IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND AREAS OF CAP-REMOVING SFC HEATING. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AIDED BY PRESENCE OF THOSE BOUNDARY LAYER
SELYS...BENEATH MID-UPPER SWLYS OF 30-40 KT AT 500 MB AND NRN FRINGE
OF UPPER/SUBTROPICAL JET. ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS OVER PARTS OF SRN
NM AND FAR W TX INDICATE 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. MAIN CONCERN
PRECLUDING CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM IS COVERAGE OF RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON. TSTM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EWD OVER ERN NM IN LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME...ALONG WRN FRINGE OF 25-35 KT LLJ AND
ATOP DIABATICALLY COOLING NEAR-SFC LAYER.

2. CONVEYOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
SLY TO ELY MID-UPPER FLOW N THROUGH NE OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE...FROM
SRN NV TO WRN NM. STG SFC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMOVE CINH.
200-800 J/KG MLCAPE AND LOCALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH STG TO MRGL SVR HAIL/GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

3. PROXIMAL AREA TO COLD-CORE LOW...OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
REGION AND SWRN AZ...MAY YIELD HAIL FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS..ALONG
WITH STG GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WELL-MIXED THERMAL PROFILES IN DIURNAL
SUBCLOUD LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2010

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