SWOD48
SPC AC 190841
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT FCST ALOFT ONCE SERN LOW DISCUSSED IN
DAY-2/DAY-3 OUTLOOKS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SOME SVR MAY OCCUR WITH COLD-CORE REGION OF THIS FEATURE DAYS
4-5/22ND-24TH OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH AOA 30% AREA IS
PRECLUDED BY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
THETAE...BOTH UNDER MIDLEVEL LOW AND OVER WARM SECTOR. BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...HEIGHT FALLS WILL COVER MUCH OF ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION IN ADVANCE OF PAC TROUGHING. IN ADDITION...PROGRESSIVE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN MOST SREF MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC
UKMET/ECMWF/SPECTRAL OVER NRN MEX DAY-5/23RD-24TH...WITH CONFLUENT
MID-UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS TX/OK. PROGS VARY CONSIDERABLY
FROM DAY-5 ONWARD REGARDING WHETHER THIS FEATURE CLOSES/CUTS OFF AS
CYCLONE OVER TX OR NRN MEX...OR EJECTS ENEWD ACROSS MS
VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER
WRN CONUS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2010
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